Topic: Why is a strategy still making money after it has been published? (Read 100 times)
From a higher dimension, we are all products of survivor bias, no matter the loser or winner, but the significance of risk management is that although it will lose, but it will never lead to nothing left at all in real life. trading strategy design and execution is make sure of this point.
January 14, 2019, 03:27:24 AM
Some n00bs remain n00bs for years, until they get broke.
And some people learn fast.
The first category is why there will always be winning strategies. But then it's also important to know that you can hit a ceiling, depending on the strategy you like to use.
And some people learn fast.
The first category is why there will always be winning strategies. But then it's also important to know that you can hit a ceiling, depending on the strategy you like to use.
January 14, 2019, 01:30:10 AM
Quote
The continued success of many people proves this.
Not really, market is zero sum, so for all these people to loose, some must also win. You never know if that because of skill, or just pure luck.Quote
Therefore, an effective method of making money must be a method that cannot be used by everyone.
I think people really need to understand this. This is the reason why nobody will give you a bot that makes X% per month. That is free money that they are giving you. Why would anyone do that.Quote
Therefore, the winners in the stock market must have something different from ordinary people in their character.
Yes. But the others can still play the game. Somebody needs to provide all the money so the people on top can actually win. 
January 13, 2019, 10:43:00 PM
article originally from fmz.com
1.
The reason why the method is effective
The effectiveness of the money-making method is contradictory to the effectiveness of the market. Scholars believe that: since everyone comes to the stock market to make money, they will inevitably find and use the methods of making money. If they all use these methods, the result is this method will lose effectiveness. The result of all people making money is not profits but to make the market effective. But this is only a theoretical imagination. The market in reality is far from effective. It is still providing opportunities for some of the best players in the stock market to make money. The continued success of many people proves this. Why are these methods of making money still effective?
The root cause to the failure of the method of making money is that this method is used by everyone. Conversely, if a method of making money is not available to everyone, then it will not lose effectiveness.
Therefore, an effective method of making money must be a method that cannot be used by everyone. There must be some reasons behind this method that people cannot or will not use it. The more powerful the reason is, the more effective this method is.
2.
The effectiveness lacks guarantee
Among the various reasons that hinder people from using a method of making money, the most profound one reason that all methods have in common is the lack of certain guarantees of their effectiveness. Because of the fear of the market not giving opportunity, people can't use any method with confidence, so there won’t be situation that a method is used by everyone. This is the fundamental guarantee that people will not use the same method.
There is a very interesting loop here: if everyone uses the same method, then this method is ineffective, so the necessary condition for effectiveness is that it cannot used by everyone. Since there is no reason to absolutely prevent people from using a method, there is no way to absolutely satisfy this requirement in the stock market. But the fact that the necessary conditions are not met is in turn the most profound reason that hinders people from using a method, which makes it impossible to use the same method in fact.
Therefore, in a relative sense, any method of making money naturally has this necessary condition.
3.
Human nature barrier
Another reason for people not to use the method of making money is the psychological barrier of people. When people choose the method, they do not actually follow the principle of winning, but show their preference. Some methods are always effective in practice but not many people use them, while others often lose in practice and are still preferred.
Psychological preference has two effects. On the one hand, it acts like an invisible net to block some methods of making money; on the other hand, it’s like a gravitational field, attracting people to those methods of losing money. The more powerful the reason for this psychological preference is, the stronger the net or gravitational field is, and in accordance with it, the more guaranteed the effectiveness of making money method and losing money method will be.
There are several reasons for the psychological barriers. First, the profit is too small to reach people's psychological expectations. For example, a method that can earn 5 percent in a year but can only earn 5% will be used by only few people. Second, there are a lot of profits, but there are too few opportunities. People can't stand the long-term waiting. For example, a method that only operates once a year is hard to accept. Third, it is profitable and there are opportunities, but the success rate is too low, and you must stop the loss frequently. For example, if a method is quite good in continuous use, but the success rate is only 20%, then people will certainly not tend to use; Fourth, there are no above shortcomings, but it is too unreasonable and hard to believe. For example, there are some schools based on mysterious figures or the eight diagrams of Zhouyi, and their methods are difficult for most people to believe.
The opposite of the above shortcomings is what people prefer. If a method seems to be profitable, has many opportunities and a high success rate, and makes sense, then even if it lose repeatedly, people will prefer it. These psychological barriers and preferences are shared by people, reflecting the regularity of deep psychology, that is, human nature.
4.
Mental retardation
Most people prefer to accept challenges to their intelligence rather than face their own psychological barriers. Therefore, the method with high difficulty and high income is the goal that people pursue, and the method with low difficulty and low income is dismissed. People like to squeeze in those directions that seem most suitable and do not need to overcome their psychological barriers. The result is that these seemingly optimal directions have become the most competitive direction, and the result of competition has created another barrier. This is the barrier of difficulty.
There are not many people with particularly high IQs or extremely low IQs. If a method is too difficult and only a few high-intelligence people can master, then even if everyone wants to use, it is doomed that only a small number of people can become successful.
This is like playing chess. When playing chess, it is easy for people to exclude various psychological obstacles from analyzing and calculating. However, because the calculation of chess is very complicated, people's level will naturally form a pyramidal distribution, a small number of people in a higher level while most people only reaching the middle or lower level. It's not that they don't want to improve their level, but their intellectual conditions limit their ability to reach high level.
The psychological barriers are problem of whether people willing to use, and the difficulty barrier is the question of whether the method can be used. For example, using a game perspective to comprehensively analyze various stock market information, comprehensive decision-making is a very difficult method. It requires a certain IQ to be the basis, but also a wealth of experience, but if you master it, you may get high income. The difficulty of game analysis is that it is a research method rather than an analytical method, because each stock is different every time, there is no simple method, and it must be comprehensively analyzed according to the game, which is not something that everyone can master.
5.
Barrier of objective condition
In the stock market, people's objective conditions are different, so some methods can only be used by a few people. For example, a person with a large amount of money can set traps for retail investors while others cannot. For another example, a small number of people can legally or illegally obtain insider information that others do not have in various channels. They operate according to such information while others cannot.
Psychological barriers in principle can be overcome by everyone; although intellectual barriers cannot be overcome by everyone, but after all, people can work on it. On this point people are equal; but objective conditions are an insurmountable obstacle, and those who do not have the conditions cannot use some methods.
Such barrier reflects the inequality of the stock market, and the method based on it is unfair to others. The first two barriers will continually be overcome, but not this kind barrier of objective condition.
6.
Reverse
Among the above barriers, the factors that the effectiveness of the method lacking guarantee are the same for all methods. The barrier of objective condition cannot be overcome by most normal person. Therefore, the main barriers that people can overcome through subjective efforts are mental retardation and psychological barrier. The nature of these two barriers is different. The efforts to overcome mental retardation are directed to the outside, and it’s to defeat the market. Efforts to overcome psychological barriers point to the internal, and it’s to overcome yourself. Overcoming yourself is the foundation for defeating the market and a necessary condition for success. On this basis, a certain method can be added to make success a reality.
For example, the ideal of Taoist is to reverse the process of life aging to achieve immortality. The method is to use Kung Fu to recreate a life process that is completely opposite to ordinary people. The fundamental difference between immortality and human beings is that ordinary people follow the flow of life, and the immortals are against the flow of life.
Due to negative factors like transaction commission, the overall trend in the stock market is a loss. To be a successful player in the stock market is also against the flow. The nature of human beings is to pursue more profit, more opportunities, and higher success rate. To become a fairy in the stock market, we must go against the flow, against human nature.
Therefore, the winners in the stock market must have something different from ordinary people in their character. This is the inherent guarantee that they will surpass others to become the successful minority. The traits of these characters are generally born, only a few people have it. If an ordinary person wants to have these characteristics, he must train himself in long term and learn to reverse his harmful nature.
article originally from fmz.com
1.
The reason why the method is effective
The effectiveness of the money-making method is contradictory to the effectiveness of the market. Scholars believe that: since everyone comes to the stock market to make money, they will inevitably find and use the methods of making money. If they all use these methods, the result is this method will lose effectiveness. The result of all people making money is not profits but to make the market effective. But this is only a theoretical imagination. The market in reality is far from effective. It is still providing opportunities for some of the best players in the stock market to make money. The continued success of many people proves this. Why are these methods of making money still effective?
The root cause to the failure of the method of making money is that this method is used by everyone. Conversely, if a method of making money is not available to everyone, then it will not lose effectiveness.
Therefore, an effective method of making money must be a method that cannot be used by everyone. There must be some reasons behind this method that people cannot or will not use it. The more powerful the reason is, the more effective this method is.
2.
The effectiveness lacks guarantee
Among the various reasons that hinder people from using a method of making money, the most profound one reason that all methods have in common is the lack of certain guarantees of their effectiveness. Because of the fear of the market not giving opportunity, people can't use any method with confidence, so there won’t be situation that a method is used by everyone. This is the fundamental guarantee that people will not use the same method.
There is a very interesting loop here: if everyone uses the same method, then this method is ineffective, so the necessary condition for effectiveness is that it cannot used by everyone. Since there is no reason to absolutely prevent people from using a method, there is no way to absolutely satisfy this requirement in the stock market. But the fact that the necessary conditions are not met is in turn the most profound reason that hinders people from using a method, which makes it impossible to use the same method in fact.
Therefore, in a relative sense, any method of making money naturally has this necessary condition.
3.
Human nature barrier
Another reason for people not to use the method of making money is the psychological barrier of people. When people choose the method, they do not actually follow the principle of winning, but show their preference. Some methods are always effective in practice but not many people use them, while others often lose in practice and are still preferred.
Psychological preference has two effects. On the one hand, it acts like an invisible net to block some methods of making money; on the other hand, it’s like a gravitational field, attracting people to those methods of losing money. The more powerful the reason for this psychological preference is, the stronger the net or gravitational field is, and in accordance with it, the more guaranteed the effectiveness of making money method and losing money method will be.
There are several reasons for the psychological barriers. First, the profit is too small to reach people's psychological expectations. For example, a method that can earn 5 percent in a year but can only earn 5% will be used by only few people. Second, there are a lot of profits, but there are too few opportunities. People can't stand the long-term waiting. For example, a method that only operates once a year is hard to accept. Third, it is profitable and there are opportunities, but the success rate is too low, and you must stop the loss frequently. For example, if a method is quite good in continuous use, but the success rate is only 20%, then people will certainly not tend to use; Fourth, there are no above shortcomings, but it is too unreasonable and hard to believe. For example, there are some schools based on mysterious figures or the eight diagrams of Zhouyi, and their methods are difficult for most people to believe.
The opposite of the above shortcomings is what people prefer. If a method seems to be profitable, has many opportunities and a high success rate, and makes sense, then even if it lose repeatedly, people will prefer it. These psychological barriers and preferences are shared by people, reflecting the regularity of deep psychology, that is, human nature.
4.
Mental retardation
Most people prefer to accept challenges to their intelligence rather than face their own psychological barriers. Therefore, the method with high difficulty and high income is the goal that people pursue, and the method with low difficulty and low income is dismissed. People like to squeeze in those directions that seem most suitable and do not need to overcome their psychological barriers. The result is that these seemingly optimal directions have become the most competitive direction, and the result of competition has created another barrier. This is the barrier of difficulty.
There are not many people with particularly high IQs or extremely low IQs. If a method is too difficult and only a few high-intelligence people can master, then even if everyone wants to use, it is doomed that only a small number of people can become successful.
This is like playing chess. When playing chess, it is easy for people to exclude various psychological obstacles from analyzing and calculating. However, because the calculation of chess is very complicated, people's level will naturally form a pyramidal distribution, a small number of people in a higher level while most people only reaching the middle or lower level. It's not that they don't want to improve their level, but their intellectual conditions limit their ability to reach high level.
The psychological barriers are problem of whether people willing to use, and the difficulty barrier is the question of whether the method can be used. For example, using a game perspective to comprehensively analyze various stock market information, comprehensive decision-making is a very difficult method. It requires a certain IQ to be the basis, but also a wealth of experience, but if you master it, you may get high income. The difficulty of game analysis is that it is a research method rather than an analytical method, because each stock is different every time, there is no simple method, and it must be comprehensively analyzed according to the game, which is not something that everyone can master.
5.
Barrier of objective condition
In the stock market, people's objective conditions are different, so some methods can only be used by a few people. For example, a person with a large amount of money can set traps for retail investors while others cannot. For another example, a small number of people can legally or illegally obtain insider information that others do not have in various channels. They operate according to such information while others cannot.
Psychological barriers in principle can be overcome by everyone; although intellectual barriers cannot be overcome by everyone, but after all, people can work on it. On this point people are equal; but objective conditions are an insurmountable obstacle, and those who do not have the conditions cannot use some methods.
Such barrier reflects the inequality of the stock market, and the method based on it is unfair to others. The first two barriers will continually be overcome, but not this kind barrier of objective condition.
6.
Reverse
Among the above barriers, the factors that the effectiveness of the method lacking guarantee are the same for all methods. The barrier of objective condition cannot be overcome by most normal person. Therefore, the main barriers that people can overcome through subjective efforts are mental retardation and psychological barrier. The nature of these two barriers is different. The efforts to overcome mental retardation are directed to the outside, and it’s to defeat the market. Efforts to overcome psychological barriers point to the internal, and it’s to overcome yourself. Overcoming yourself is the foundation for defeating the market and a necessary condition for success. On this basis, a certain method can be added to make success a reality.
For example, the ideal of Taoist is to reverse the process of life aging to achieve immortality. The method is to use Kung Fu to recreate a life process that is completely opposite to ordinary people. The fundamental difference between immortality and human beings is that ordinary people follow the flow of life, and the immortals are against the flow of life.
Due to negative factors like transaction commission, the overall trend in the stock market is a loss. To be a successful player in the stock market is also against the flow. The nature of human beings is to pursue more profit, more opportunities, and higher success rate. To become a fairy in the stock market, we must go against the flow, against human nature.
Therefore, the winners in the stock market must have something different from ordinary people in their character. This is the inherent guarantee that they will surpass others to become the successful minority. The traits of these characters are generally born, only a few people have it. If an ordinary person wants to have these characteristics, he must train himself in long term and learn to reverse his harmful nature.
article originally from fmz.com
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