Any idea on the size of chip and manufacturing process for the 45 for $45k you are mentioning? If each chip is $1k but is able to compete on a MH/$ compared to GPUs then it could be a viable option. I guess all I'm getting at is that I feel like this avenue hasn't been truly explored asides from cursory glances and the regurgitation of "common" knowledge.
It won't. Also remember the price quoted is simply the "build cost" of just the chip. You got the balance of the system and the tens of thousands of dollars (if not hundreds of thousands) in NRE designing the chip. This isn't something like Visual Studio. The software tends to be six figures and laying out an ASIC takes some qualified engineers months. So figure 3 or 4 engineers on salary at $80K ea for 6-12 months plus software running $50K to $100K more plus likely some outside consultation or IP licensing for routine elements.
Solutions like eASIC are designed for rapid prototyping.Say you simulate a chip of x millions of gates on 45nm process can get 600 MH/s and in bulk will be <$100 per chip.
Compared to existing solutions there is obviously a lot of potential profit but also a lot of risk. Now instead of sinking $2M+ into the venture you could hedge your risk by taking your design, some seed capital (maybe $200K) and 6 months. Once you got a functional design, you have eASIC custom cut you a couple dozen chips at $1K+ each.
Now the chip is $1K so you are talking $2,500+ for something comparable to BFL Single. Obviously no market for that.However the point isn't to sell the 4 dozen or so chips. The point is you now have
actual silicon in your hands. Not an FPGA, not an sASIC, not a simulation, the actual silicon. That is very valuable. You can build rigs out of them, test them, try different densities, see how far you can push the clocks, measure wattage, adjust cooling, burn them in, find bugs, perfect PCB designs, etc. All the things that make investors scared you can get behind you. You can show the chip works, it has a performance of X MH/s on Y watts and will cost $Z.
Then when you have a final perfect, tested design (not just chip but entire product) IN HAND you can go to the investors and say "see this works" and we can build this quad chip 3 GH/s system for $500 in bulk and likely sell it for a 300% markup. We just need $2.8 million for the mask and run of first 2000 chips. It is a lot less scary to drop something like $2.8 million if you have a product working in hand.