Topic: Why price can go down really low. (Read 856 times)

This is quite untrue.. The Inflation might be quite high in the first 1-2 Years, but it is already known in advance by everybody and the price already accounts for it. you cannot call it "hyper" since that would mean more than 50% per month. (13.000% per year) this would be the inflation rate in the first 2 Months in 2009, but not now.

I, for one did both buy and started to mine when getting into Bitcoin. I will hold the mined bitcoins for the next years, until it is established and if i spend them for stuff i will re-buy them.

1. Price continues to drop.

2. Miners give up and hanging their rigs.

3. So many miners give up that CPU mining becomes practical again.

4. Everyone who stays become an remade early adopter!

5.Some people out there figure out that bitcoin mining is a way of making money and decide to join, and a new cycle starts.


Since step 3 is an impossible scenario, so the price will not drop to the point where it becomes a reality.

Proof done.

Plausible.. but it's a bloody big planet, and really only a small number of people have really been exposed to it.
Despite all the newspaper articles -  most of my friends (even technical ones) hadn't heard of it even up to this week.

Consider that during the 'dot com' boom era - it wasn't really that easy for people all around the world to get involved and get invested into. (e.g difficulty of foreigners putting a small amount on a US exchange like NASDAQ)
With bitcoin exchanges and services springing up all around the planet - it's much more of a global phenomenon.

It could go low.. but it could also rise inexorably.  It's the most novel, unpredictable beast of a thing that's hit the world since.. well.. the internet itself I guess!

Right now, investors are watching how low miners and early adopters are willing to go...

Prices could continue down over the coming months. Maybe even to $2-5.

Because only in the coming 1-2 years. Million of bitcoins will be produced and it take millions of new dollars to buy those.

At as low as $4 with 2 million new bitcoins we are talking $8 million dollars. Which is not a small sum and on top of it we have all the other coins.
A majority of those millions of coins out could probably be sold at $4 and still be a good profit.

But since Bitcoin has had its hype in the media, its been articles in every major newspaper in the world
and all over the internet and lots of bad publicity.

There is a risc that few new investors will join now when they see price go down.

Which means its a highrisc investment.
A majority of those that think its interesting and see the potential might have allready joined and bought, some will buy more, but not everyone.

Some will even sell and get out as price goes down.

But new bitcoins get mined everyday. Which means right now we are seeing almost a hyperinflation.

Right now its like a printing press that cant be stopped and someone have to buy all those new coins.

As price goes down, we might see only the miners with zero electricity bills might be left.
And they will increase their amount of found coins? Perhaps making a profit at $2!

As long as miners can make a profit. Price can go down.

Meaning price decrease will could continue for quite some time. Which also leads to more panic sells.

Which leads to fewer players in the market.

After a while as price goes down we might se a few big players owning most of the coins. Just like in evolution, the strongest will survive.
Meaning they can manipulate the market. Crash it to buy even more.

I´m not saying it will happen, but it could.
Because the see profit in the long term, maybe 10 years.

It could take a few years, maybe 6 years when there is a lot less new bitcoins everyday.
Before we start seeing a real stable long term price and when price will really go up longterm.

Until a equilibrium is reached which could be in almost any pricelevel, no one knows at what price that level is. But right now, we have not reached it, because it would not continue down.

But as price goes down the likleyhood of the price going up increase and it could go up tomorrow, as the lower the price the less it takes.

What I´m saying is that we really dont know what will happen, and there is a lot of new bitcoins being mined.
Remember that only a few months ago price was very low. There are many new investors in the market since then, but many of those want to buy low, meaning the will wait.

I really hope price will go up, sooner rather than later. But its not up to me and its possible that it will go down much more.