Topic: Why putin choose winter? (Read 593 times)

Wether Putin chosed the timing or not, with how apparent things are from all corners, only this issue of gas supply from Russia to the EU countries and how a cut off could drastically affect their economy is enough signal to alert Ukraine that the war they are fighting is a "one man mopol" war.

Ukraine continuous  dependant on EU to salvage them at all cost against Russia is one I don't see happening, cause every country act based on national interest. So the question is, is it same EU that depend on Russia for supply of about 40%  of their gas, would rise up to fight side by side Ukraine against Russia at the expense of their continuous gas supply? No meaning government would blatantly want to put it's economy at risk.

So Ukraine should as a matter of urgency make out ways with Russia in ending this war.

As of today, there are already more than 12,000 corpses of Rashists. The Armed Forces of Ukraine adhere to the rules of warfare and international standards of warfare, and are forced to save the lives of those who surrender. But there is an exception - after peaceful cities were bombed with artillery and rockets, civilian children, old people, women were killed, there is an unofficial rule - do not take artillerymen prisoner, just destroy them. I absolutely agree here - people who deliberately go to kill and wage a terrorist war against civilians have no other options but to go to hell as soon as possible.
Thank you, from the bottom of my heart, for your support, it is very important and valuable for us!

About 9000 as of yesterday.  I think soon they will stop counting them daily.

I hope you can kill them whenever you see them.  Do not take prisoners.  Just kill as many as you can.

If you continue this fight to summer/fall, Putin will be killed by the FSB.  There is no way he can survive this for many years.

You have no idea how many Russians died here! Our morgues are packed, their corpses are lying in the fields, forests, fragments - in the destroyed equipment. And you know what? Russia REFUSES TO TAKE THE BODIES OF ITS SOLDIERS!!!! We beg the International Red Cross to facilitate the transfer of the bodies of the dead to their relatives, this is required by international agreements. But the Kremlin does not want to accept them so that people do not see the real picture. Their propaganda says the day before yesterday that there are NO DEAD on their side. But in reality, more than 6,000 corpses of their soldiers have been COLLECTED in Ukraine today! How many of them have not yet been found in the fields, and how many fragmented corpses!? Who does not believe - I can send photos and videos with the destroyed Russian-fascist troops, but I will not publish here, very shocking materials.

Western politicians need to read the mainstream Russian media.

Here is an article from Feb 26 (taken down now) but will give you an idea of Putin's rationale for solving the "Ukrainian Question":

https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

Putinians think Russians in Ukraine love to live under an autocratic, fascist dictatorship.  How about Russians in Lithuania, Poland, Germany?

According to this logic, Russia should annex any country that has Russians as its citizens.

Seems to be happening already.. and he's been using scatter bombs and vacuum bombs (assuming the flamethrower..).
I'm not sure when people will realize you can't negotiate with this man.

He has already overextended himself militarily.  That is why he asked Lukashenko to lend him more fresh bodies to fill the void and start firing rockets from Belarus.

He will start carpet-bombing soon, I'm afraid.  This will be the end of his reign.

NATO will be forced to join to establish the no-fly zone to prevent a large-scale genocide unless oligarchs will take him out first.

Not sure why Ukrainian forces are not dropping a few bombs (front, middle, and back sections) on that 40-mile convoy, north of Kyiv.
Or maybe they already took care of this.

Laugh, but soon in Russia there will be "eat dick without salt", everything, and forever
Regarding the traitors-Russians in World War II - so they were OFFICIALLY, more than 1.5 million Read about the Vlasovites, the ROA, and other accomplices of the Nazis! The Russians are the heirs of fascism and Nazism!
Do not read the nonsense of the Kremlin propagandists anymore

Now I serve in the Territorial Defense of Ukraine. I can put you a mega-album with the burnt equipment of the Russians, a herd of their prisoners, fields with their corpses - "the strongest army in the world" By the way - Putin refuses to take the corpses of his soldiers - he is afraid of a riot of women

Are you insane?DrKoolade is what you are.No it's not North Ossetia because it is SOUTH Ossetia. :)Okay so you say these other places don't exist ...because you say so.Okay big man go and try take them back by force and see how far your ass gets before its set on fire by some russian.
Now imagine also in your fairytales that Crimea and Donbass don't exist either while you cry into your beer as putin rolls tanks in from today.
Not sure if the russians ever collaborated with nazis but some ukranians did https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collaboration_in_German-occupied_Ukraine Hey look I can make smiley faces too  

Georgia invaded... Georgia?? )) There is no North Ossetia. As there is no Obzakhia, there is no Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, there is no LPR and DPR! These are territories occupied by separatists, and 99% supported by Russia! You somehow brainwash after watching propaganda channels, because soon around every corner you will see "crucified boys" !

Well, about the second part - I see that you have absolutely no information about the real situation in Ukraine! That's why you write such crazy posts In Ukraine, no one was driven into uniform, in Ukraine, the population in 2014 itself went to volunteer detachments TO DEFEND their freedom! In Ukraine, power is not a deity, and no one will, like in Russia, stupidly, like sheep, follow orders! Ukrainians have a concept of honor and dignity, and this causes misunderstanding among the inhabitants of the same Russia In February 2022, after all the threats from Russia, do you know what the population's reaction is? Territorial defense detachments have been created, all weapons and ammunition have been bought up in weapons stores! And you can continue to tell fairy tales about the world behind the scenes, trying to justify the crazy under-furrer and his slave people

Absolutely right, lesson of the history is that no country ever defeated Russia in winter , this is their strength  and they use it wisely , even Hitler was not defeated by Russia but winter. The 2nd strength of Russia is its huge gas reserves and European depend on it to run their Industrial complexes and maintain heating system of their homes. I am still optimistic that this conflict will not turn into any major war and eventually it will be resolved through negotiations.

ROFL,Saakashvili was the aggressor when his army invaded South Ossetia.The Russians simply handed his ass back to him and could have easily ran Georgia over in a matter of hours but didn't.It seems he then went to ply his trade in..well erm ..Ukraine.More on Saakashvili here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikheil_Saakashvili


Look you are entitled to go ahead and defend yourselves against the Russians and I wish you well and but make sure the plutocrats who are getting rich from your "democracy" put on a uniform and are sent to the front also.We want nothing to do with any of your wars because we already know the politicans who talk shit all day about freedom and democracy are just as bad as Putin.The EU, New Zealand,Canada,Australia etc are no role models for "democracy" either and are no better than any other autocratic regime apart from the fact you get to vote for your dictator every half decade or so.Our so called western democracies are fraudulent window dressing for equally bad regimes they set themselves above so at least try something genuine now you are a new "democracy".We have our own  "elected" "Putins" in the west who work for plutocrats and create crisis after crisis to subvert and destroy our nation states from within so we have enough going on right now to be dealing with your "Putin" problem  

1. You did not dare to answer any of the previously posed questions! This is a good reason to rate your posts
2. You ABSOLUTELY do not own the causal relationship, and are absolutely not familiar with the real history of the conflict. After your sentence "If you are from Ukraine then you should realize you are just a pawn for NATO because they couldn't care less about your country getting ran over by the Russians." I will not waste time on you, trying to explain something, I will just give a couple of historical facts in chronology, and you will try to LOGICALLY bring them to your delirium, no offense, but now you will understand why I have the right to evaluate your "knowledge" in this way
- In 2014, Ukraine was attacked by Russia. Results - the capture and occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The fact that it was a special operation, developed in advance under the leadership of Putin, was officially declared PERSONALLY by Putin. Then there was an officially supported operation to build "Novorosiya" - by capturing the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. It did not work out here - Russia got hit in the face, and was forced to flee and dig in in Donetsk and Lugansk. There are now RUSSIAN passports, RUSSIAN money, RUSSIAN military! So - we fix the year 2014, the beginning, the attack of the Russian Federation on Ukraine. Will you deny this FACT?
- In 2013, 2014 - Ukraine made plans for integration with ... No, not NATO, but the EU! Like an economic union. And about NATO, there was no talk at all. Not from our side, Not from NATO, not from the USA! And only in recent years, even under Poroshenko, they raised and began to promote the issue of joining NATO, as the only option to defend themselves against such an aggressor as the Russian Federation. The possibility of associative membership was considered and announced in 2008, after the aggression of the Russian Federation against Georgia. But on that statement, everything calmed down and did not move forward, until 2014+. And what happened in 2014 - you already know ...




Right now I will describe the scenario that Russia is planning.
The scenario will most likely be like this:
1. Tomorrow the column with "refugees" will be shot either by the forces of the DNR/LNR or by regular Russian troops. It will be given out, of course, for "the crimes of the armed forces of Ukraine." Most likely they will shoot with artillery or MLRS. There is a nuance - even knowing the route, artillery, preferably a stationary column in the targeted area, so that the most "beautiful / bloody picture" is obtained. It will be necessary for the column to stop exactly where it is needed.
2. How to stop the column? Most likely a land mine on the road or something like that, everyone stopped and then the "armed forces of Ukraine" begin an unexpected "shelling" and exactly where the column is standing.
3. After the fall of the last shell, it suddenly turns out that there was a group of RussiaToday, ORT, ... or all together, they will find themselves in the middle of the field on an empty highway "there was a meeting." The report will turn out hellish, you can’t argue here
4. February 19 in the evening or February 20 in the morning - an urgent meeting of the Federation Council will be announced, condemning the "terrible crime", "a heroic response, as part of saving the Russian speakers"
I really want to be completely wrong in the forecast ....

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1494681937402900484

Some activity happening in Donetsk, sirens ringing out ordering an evacuation of citizens to Russia. Indicates that Russia is expecting an attack on Donetsk (clearly a false flag operation, Ukraine has no intention on military intervention unless they are attacked first), or this could be done preemptively in case Russia were to conduct an invasion. Putin making his intentions clear that he is willing to invade Ukraine, many countries have already ordered their citizens to evacuate, embassies are being cleared.

• Are you seriously ? On the tracks? Do you know how long a tank column lives on the march, along a highway that falls under the action of anti-tank units? Definitely did not serve in the army!
  
  And in case you didn't know, heavy Russian tanks move perfectly off-road.
  Look here - video from the exercise site, rough terrain. Tanks, Russian. The day before yesterday. Let them know they're doing well
  
  https://t.me/vzglyad_ru/44216
  
• And why did you take only ground troops? Do you think that combat confrontation occurs only with ground forces? Take, for example, the topographic service of the RF Armed Forces - there are generally a couple of thousand people there!
  I tell you: today the composition of the army of the Russian Federation:
  - Ground troops
  - Aerospace Forces
  - Air and Missile Defense Troops
  - Navy
  - Airborne Troops
  - Special Troops
  - Strategic Rocket Forces
  - Space Forces
  
  The total composition, regular - about 900.000 (2020), and 2.000.000 in reserve.
  
  Tell me - do you really not have information or are you deliberately distorting reality?
  

My response to this got deleted ....but the key point is that that military build up was to warn Ukraine off from launching an offensive against Donbass and Crimea regions and to get some concessions regarding Ukraine NATO membership.Just an amateur observer opinion of course because I am not an expert like all these self proclaimed professional analysts here on the thread.

If you are from Ukraine then you should realise you are just a pawn for NATO because they couldn't care less about your country getting ran over by the Russians.The reason they arm you to the hilt is so they can stand back and let it all break loose among yourselves while taking notes and it all remaining "conventional".The Russians adopted the hard posture because of your leaders aspirations to join NATO and then host their weapons systems on Russian border.Also once your "leader" has NATO membership it means that if he tries to retake Crimea and the Russians engage then they are obliged to engage on your side and nobody in any NATO country wants anything to do with that shit because that would mean all out nuclear war.You know a LOT less than an amateur like I do it seems so thanks for clearing that up.

So that great plain of Mother Russia is not muddy anymore? A 46 ton T90 heavy tank can not move in muddy terrain and has the possibility to stuck in a swamp. You are saying the road is still bad there, so how those tanks will move through that great plain if communication by road is still as bad as before. Russia do use the advantages of weather conditions to win all the previous war.


Ukraine is an extremely developed country? really brother!

The US needs a war just like Russia and everybody else. They are knowingly provoking Russia to make it happen. That's the only way to stop the inflation or at least make people stop talking about it. People will suffer either way whether there is a war or not, it will only be the excuse of what's coming. Russia needs it too because it will rise the oil prices and teach Europe a lesson: Russia pwns your ass. Arms dealers will also make a killing. (literally) Wars are just... very profitable.

Have you been brainwashed by propaganda news reports?

• If one of the Russians reads this word "Rasputitsa", he will laugh out loud, by the way, precisely because of the illiteracy of the opponents and because of the neglect of obvious things, Russia has won almost all wars.
• This is not the middle of the twentieth century and Ukraine and Russia have extremely developed infrastructure, (yes, the quality of the roads sucks), but this is enough to lead an offensive in any weather. And if you didn’t know, heavy Russian tanks move perfectly off-road.
• The size of the Russian ground forces is only 280,000 people, which is half that of the United States, despite the fact that the United States is surrounded by an ally and militarily underdeveloped Mexico and Canada, while Russia has the longest borders in the world and borders with dozens of countries.

))))
Did you serve in the army? Just be honest?
Tell us how the fields and forests of the northern and eastern parts of Ukraine look like in summer or spring or autumn? Or do you want to say that the shock units will move along the tracks?

About Russian aviation - thanks, I laughed heartily. You also forgot to give the argument "we will reach Kiev in 3 days" - we have here part of the eastern fields fertilized with the corpses of such impudent soldiers of the "strongest army in the world"
Yes, and just on topic - today a batch of Stinger systems arrived in Ukraine - hello to Russian terrorist pilots. It will no longer be possible to bomb defenseless civilians, as in Syria!
 
By the way, the Russian concept of today's offensive war, and you apparently do not have this knowledge, is as follows:
1. air-missile strikes, for the destruction of communication nodes, the destruction of air defense systems, warehouses, etc. + EW influence.
2. then, to secure the territory, shock armored units with infantry go. And so they become very dependent on the environment. I don’t know where you live, but we have a landscape (we take the territory where Russian troops are concentrated) containing a large amount of rather loose soil, with a high level of groundwater, or even wetlands.

For example:
On the video - the day before yesterday, the Russian "strongest army", a tank column, which, in your opinion, can easily move on unfrozen ground, near the border with Ukraine. An attempt to walk on that very unfrozen land.

https://twitter.com/_A_Vit_/status/1492472858244784129?s=20&t=RfDkvsx_gCgODFANqnFw0g

This is exactly what this problem looks like in reality ...
And you can tell more stories about yourself, "specialist" ))

Ground is also hard in dry summer months so your point is moot and makes it obvious you aren't qualified on the matter any more than some noob on this forum ;-) Russian air power could literally roll ukraine into the ground in less than 1 week along with electro and communication zap.Soldiers on the ground are merely grunts so they don't need to be much more than pawns.Are you implying that you need to be a successful individual with an IQ above 80 to point and aim?

Stop acting like you know any more than I do ;-)

Have You ever heard of "Rasputitsa"? Russia is not only known for winter but also for Rasputitsa. In spring and autumn, it's impossible to move with heavy machinery through unpaved roads because of the rain and melting snow. Those heavy Russian tanks will be useless in such conditions so it's better to do offensive in winter when the ground is solid.

War can not be won only by machinery but with manpower. And to properly fed the huge Russian army they need money for the provision and salary of the soldier. We all know Russia's economic condition right now so it's totally suicidal for Russia to start a full-scale war.

It's all fairy tales
1. You probably did not serve in the army, and do not understand how it all works? Winter is chosen only so that military equipment can move normally without getting stuck in mud and puddles. This is the main reason for choosing such a period for OFFENSIVE operations, when it is necessary to organize a guaranteed rapid movement of army units deep into the territory where military operations are planned to be conducted.
2. Of course there is oil and gas. But the economy itself is resource-based, backward, and objectively corresponds to the level of third world countries. Exactly the same economy that buried the USSR, and then Russia in 1998, when they then begged the whole world to give them at least some food. And oil and gas, at this time, has not gone away
3. People are not resistant to difficulties - if you look at the regions outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg, where it is totally difficult, you will see that these "heroic fighters with difficulties" are almost all totally drunken and marginalized beings. They just do not know how to deal with difficulties, to change something around them, they just sink to the bottom. You confused "fighting with difficulties" with "habits of a slave who lives at the bottom and has no right to change something."
4. Neo-Nazism, Nazism is just a hallmark of RASHISM. And his supporters in some countries, cultivating the Nazis, the Reichs and the "great Fuhrers" and other abominations. Or can you give a reasoned, verifiable, example about the heyday of neo-Nazis "managing" Ukraine? )) Just a request - not hysterical Kremlin slogans, but facts, and do not run away from the answer, do not be silent, it will be very interesting to continue this topic!

Putin choose winter because every country that ever fought the Russians failed because of the winter.Russia has all the gas and oil it needs to maintain a perpetual war machine and a nuclear arsenal to back it up if it ever fails.Russia are effectively undefeatable using military means.Also their people are more resilient to hardship than western societies so winter would prove harder on our soldiers and citizens because we are soft whereas they are hard muddafuddas.If we engage in war with Russia over Ukraine which is literally ran by neo nazis then Europe will be the first to fall and after that anything goes.

As I understand it, you did not dare to read the story about the crimes of the USSR / Russia, including provocations. Ok, it's up to you
And here Iraq And the USA? Although ... But Pol-Pota destroyed the local population, and scientists ... And if you were wearing glasses! And this very accurately confirms that Russia wants to capture the whole of Europe and raise the price of round timber! I followed your logic, answering your question, tell me - does it really look stupid?
Russia can be "brave" ONLY if they are 100,000% sure that their target will not be able to resist. Those. they need an object of aggression that can be safely and safely destroyed, knowing that there will be no answer. In 2014, such a situation was in Ukraine. BUT ! We managed to very quickly assemble volunteer defense units, and managed to drive out the invaders, and free almost 50% of the temporarily occupied territories!
That is why now there is a wild hysteria in Russia - they are very afraid that defensive weapons have arrived in Ukraine, which is guaranteed not to allow the rashist army to walk in a parade march across the territory of Ukraine. Now they know that tank divisions will be destroyed wherever they appear, aviation also becomes vulnerable after the supply of MANPADS systems. Therefore, the Kremlin is hysterical, and does not know what to do now.

I'm not suggesting Russia is above a fake provocation attack, they're quite embolden to attack Ukraine under the belief that the U.S. or other NATO countries will respond.

But will the US escalate because they want an excuse to start war, is the question. I see no motive, so my guess is no.

Though recall to 2003 when the U.S. promised the world a war in Iraq was justified due to WMD. There were none, and they lied. So I don't believe Russia is operating with good intention, nor does the U.S. have a good track record telling the truth in these matters.

If you study history, then a similar mechanism, the mechanism of fake provocations, has been used by Russia since the beginning of World War II. It was used as an excuse to start aggression. For example, "The Attack of the Finnish Republic on the USSR" - read, think, compare the situations. Everything is absolutely identical, for decades, nothing has changed in the terrorist state. same principles, same explanations, same formulations...

I guess that explains why no one wants to get involved, huh.

Also explains why the US wouldn't mind a war, it isn't their oil on the line. They stopped giving a damn about the economy a long time ago, so that's an issue to put aside.

There was a report that alleges Russia is planning a hoax propaganda video to use as a pretext for an invasion. Video shows Ukraine pre-emptively striking Russia, but of course it is all crisis actors. This comes from the US government, so I'm immediately reminded that they assured the world that Iraq had WMD's. Turns out that was just a lie. Wonder if this report is a lie too.

I would like to hope that logic and conscience will prevail in Europe. Conscience - to stop being, some politicians, kept women of the Kremlin. Logic - after an act of economic / energy terrorism by Russia, only an idiot can not understand that Russian gas is a means of blackmailing and feeding tame prostitute politicians who sell their countries in exchange for handouts from Kremlin terrorists. Energy security can only be realized through the diversification of supplies. Russia needs to monopolize the market, and economic goals, judging by the actions of the Kremlin, are no longer the main goal. The main goal is to control the behavior of the leading European countries, when making pro-Russian decisions, or to sabotage anti-Russian measures.

Even though Biden is old enough for this, he is still a president for America and a controller of NATO. Indirectly he should be responsible if something happens to the EU, such as cutting gas supply or at worst an invasion of one of the EU countries (which is unlikely to happen).

Qatar has also stated that they will supply gas and oil to the EU through their storage in East Asia. And in return they asked to end the European Commission anti-trust investigation and asked their gas and oil market to return to Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/qatar-in-talks-to-supply-gas-to-europe-if-russia-cuts-supplies). So Qatar also doesn't help the EU for free.

Was this the reson why Biden is shopping for gas/petroleum in Qatar?  The poor man is too old for this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/biden-meets-with-emir-of-qatar-as-u-s-aims-to-allay-european-concern-about-natural-gas-supply-amid-elevated-russia-tension-01643660960

In the case war will really happen, they have something to give to EU to survive the winter. I dont know if any of the middle east countries will provide actually.  

Too much logic that doesn't make sense here. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine itself have been going on for a long time, what has caused the conflict to widen is the recent closeness of Ukraine to the western bloc, which makes Russia dislike it.


And when it comes to gas and oil supplies, Europe relies 35% of natural gas on Russia. However, if we look at the situation, even if there is a war and gas supply cuts, Europe can divert their supply to several neighbouring countries (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-europes-options-case-russian-gas-disruption-2022-01-27/) although there will be many problems during the transition process, I am sure it will not take long and that the party that will suffer the most is Russia itself because they will lose quite a lot of revenue from gas sales.

Qatar is in talk with the EU to supply natural gas if Russia cut their gas supply. Source link.

I think this is a good alternative to the neutral Russian threat but the problem does the EU has enough infrastructure to import natural gas from a country that is located far away. This will also increase the cost of natural gas which is already skyrocketing in Europe. Qatar could be a good alternative to the natural gas supplier in the EU but this can not be done on short notice.

You don't have to believe in green energy to see that we depend less on natural gas and coal and more on electricity. It doesn't have to be green, it can be nuclear. Anyway, the use of solar energy is growing every year as are imports from other countries. 2019-2020 EU cut gas imports from Russia by 5%. Governments see that Russia is unreliable and are looking for alternatives. Putin is running out of time.

If you believe in that green energy crap then I have bad news for you, it is not going to save EU. Let's see the numbers:

Europe's ~40% of natural gas, ~46% of solid fuels,  ~27% of crude oil is coming from Russia.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html#carouselControls?lang=en







These numbers tell only one story:

Putin pwns Europe.

It's easier to move military equipment when the ground is frozen.  That area gets super muddy in April/May and this happens:




The failed leadership was defeated in the last election.  And the problem wasn't them doing nothing, it was them turning our allies against us with obvious pro-Russia stances.  

Current leadership has already made it clear that if Putin goes into Ukraine the sanctions start approaching Cuba embargo level of intensity.  

Ukraine is just in thier backyard, no muscles needed to flex there. Just look at the news today about all the Ukraine tension that US media had been making, its funny now that countries surrounding Ukraine are not allowing US troops to move in. Belarus, Croatia and all the rest just wouldn't want them there.

It would have been easy for the administration to restage that Cuban missile crisis if Biden's brain is not too demented. No one calls it fake news but if it were Trump doing all these, the term FakeNews would have been around million times after CNN deleted the news about Biden saying the imminent Ukraine invasion.

If anyone is flexing their muscles it's the US military going very far from their backyard to ignite a war. Choosing winter because China is so busy with thier winter Olympics. But they have thier problems of thier own now as thier F-35C plane crashes in the backyard of China.

And we all know the average Russian doesn't need gas to keep warm. Vodka does that from the inside.


Not really.

Firstly, natural gas is not the only resource used to heat our homes. Apart from growing use of solar energy, people use coal, wood, oil...

Secondly, only 40% of natural gas comes from Russia. Norway alone supplies over 20% and many countries have their own sources of gas that are not shown on the supply chart because it's not exported to other countries, but used locally. It's not like the EU would collapse if Russia cut gas. We'd have to import more from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, which we've been doing for years. The downside is gas imported from Africa can be more expensive than the one from Russia, but it's not such a big deal.

You can look at it like this: When you like wine and the prices go up you either switch to beer or pay more. You don't die of thirst. Russia on the other hand has high inflation. If they stop selling gas to the EU they'll have an even greater one.

Ukrainian politics was happened many times.In a past Russia made a friendly relationship with the Ukraine. By the move of USSR, later they do of partition.Russia support the lot in the past. But after the interfere of the United State, Ukraine had this move.But it's not a correct one. Russian are the brother to the Ukraine. They should do friendly relationship with Russia.

This is an interesting concept and maybe there’s some truth to it, but I’m not sure this is the case. I mean hasn’t this been an issue for some time and haven’t they already moved some there troops on the Ukraine border already (I could be wrong here). I just hope this is as far as things go, we don’t need WWIII.

More than 47% of Chinese goods by value are exported to its neighbor country in the Asian region. 20% to North America and the other 20% in the EU means the USA can not single handily crash chinas economy if they made any sanction to china. The USA is the biggest importer of china but they are not the only one so there is no way the USA can stop chinas economical growth. Also, the USA can not replace China as one of the biggest exporters of the world because of China's cheap labor and manpower it could generate.


What you are saying is true but we have to understand Putin has one of the largest militaries in the world and this gangster leader could cause serious destruction to the EU and to his own people. This power show-off could escalate a full-scale war at any time.

I'm not sure where you got this sort of a theory. I haven't been closely monitoring this news lately either. So I cannot tell whether the winter has indeed this vital role to play in the massive troop buildup in the border. However, the winter will be done by March, right? The negotiations, especially because it involves the very delicate matter of regional security and stability, would probably take more than half a year.

Of course, going into the negotiation table during this particular season gives Russia an additional leverage. However, I doubt it will become the pivot point so to speak. I don't even think the development thus far would force Ukraine to cease participating in various NATO programs and deals.

The moment the EU crashes a market of 1/3 of their GDP in exports is gone.
This is the same thing for China, China doesn't want the US economy to go down, just imagine if the US can't afford to import and consume all that stuff that comes from China, what are millions of Chinese going to do for work?

Putin needs to flex his muscles to show the people in the country something because he has nothing!
A country with vast resources and a minimum wage of 180$, on pair with the poorest region of China, lower than Mexic, Brazil, or even Albania, and before anyone brings the PPP into the discussion, a BTC is worth $37k both in the US and in Zimbabwe, hiding behind PPP means acknowledging you're living on bread and water. He simply has nothing to show poeple, not wealth, not healthcare, not infrastructure, he can only play the nationalist and patriotism cards, and for that, he needs the "glory" of the USSR if not economically at least military, just like a hooligan with a baseball bat, he doesn't care about his own problems but must impose his views on his neighbors and frighten them every single day.


30 years old infrastructure and of no outstanding strategic importance for the western allies since they already have Poland and the Baltic countries which are actually closer to Moscow than all of Ukraine less 10% in the northern part.

The reason is pretty simple.
Russia doesn't want Ukraine to get into the western influence zone because if Ukraine gets a boost to its economy and surpass that of Russia per capita poeple will start questioning themselves why are they still against the EU and also seek a change of how the country is run.
He fears the power of an example, just when you want to make a comparison between communism and capitalism you look at South and North Korea, Putin doesn't want Russia and Ukraine to be used as such examples where he is part of how not to do it.

It's not only the fuel considerations, though I am surprised to learn that Russia supplies that much fuel, it's also the fact that Ukraine is close to joining NATO the US has failed leadership that will not do anything in the event of an invasion. Seeing the US's botched withdrawal in Afghanistan gives Putin the leeway for an invasion.

It is a good point you made on russia supplying europe with gas needed to generate heat during winter.

I think the summary of it is Putin did not choose the timing of this latest conflict. The crisis manifested itself on Putin's doorstep and he is merely reacting to it the best he can.

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

Putin will know this well, having lived through the crash of the USSR and seeing firsthand effects economic crisis have in the modern world.

Economic instability and crisis in modern times can have a far more devastating impact on nations, than war or military conflict.

If he choose winter because of the winter gas demand, he got it all wrong. The talks are unlikely to end before spring and by then the demand will drop vastly. Nope, that is not likely to be the issue. If Putin intended to invade Ukraine and get to Kiev, believe me he would already be there by now. This is about getting the upper hand on a negotiation that otherwise would put him on the short end of the stick.

Not exactly I do think he was just waiting for an opportunity for ages, their economy is collapsing as well therefore I do think that it might not be a good time to actually get involved in a war and that as well to fight against NATO plus uk and us as well. At the same time US already told that they would supply the gas to Germany as well therefore I do think that the tensions were on the top ground since 2014 and they are just struck because of the NATO soilders making a move and they are scared that they would loose their dominance on Ukraine as well. They have already occupied a part and that too they can expand, now they are trying to attack the capital which is worse but right now both of them has a cease fire therefore let's see what's gonna happen.

If he is not a master planner, then perhaps he should no longer be in power right?

So he knows that he is doing, maybe everything is carefully crafted by himself alone. So the timing itself is perfect. But in any case though, I think EU is hell bent on stopping Putin so for sure they will make their move and have a Plan B here. So right now, Putin and UE are playing a chess match and let's see who is going to win.

Tension has been high ever since they've invaded and annexed Crimea. I watched a video showing that Ukraine has cut off the water from its river that is being diverted into Crimea so that could be another "justification" for invasion.

Gas has always been a big bargaining chip for Russia in negotiations with the EU so I think it really follows that if ever they are going to make an action that the EU would be against, they'd time it with winter when demand for gas is high. The threat of cutting supply when it is most needed could somewhat make up for the logistical difficulties of wagin a winter war if doing so could throw the EU countries into disarray.

I really doubt that Russia will agree upon returning Crimea to Ukraine without any military intervention which will never happen. If NATO and the EU really thought that Crimea is an important location and it must not fall to the Russian's hand then why didn't help Ukraine in 2014 with military forces when Russ army invade Crimea? EU knows how badly they needed Russia's natural resources to fuel their country.

Yes, now is indeed a convenient time for him to talk like he's the boss because many rely on Russia's supplies. But it might also be due to other factors. Putin got very angry with Ukraine for creating the Crimea Platform in August which brought G7, 29/30 NATO countries and all EU countries together to discuss returning Crimea gradually back to Ukraine and recognizing Crimea as a part of Ukraine. So he had autumn to plan a response, mobilizing the military, and by winter created enough of a threat for concerns.
I think that if he directly invades with his army, Russia is likely to face heavy sanctions, and personal sanctions are also possible. If he continues the hybrid war, sponsoring the war in Eastern Ukraine and other attacks (we have false notifications of schools and underground stations being filled with explosives very often now, and intelligence services claim it's done by Russia's intelligence agents), he might just get away with that.

Apart from geostrategic or economic value, Russia's interest in Ukraine is elsewhere.  Putin wants to restore some of Russia's old glory he lost during the Cold War.  Russian officials have denied any possible invasion in Ukraine, but the removal of US diplomats from Kyiv and the deployment of troops and S-400 along the Russian-Ukrainian border indicates a possible invasion.  

However, even if Russia occupies all of Ukraine, it is unlikely that the EU or the USA will be involved in the war. Germany denied helping Ukraine with weapons.

You figured that right. The civilization needs energy to operate and Europe takes their energy mostly from Russia. This is Putin's powerplay, showing who is the boss. We'll see if Europe will keep being a tough guy while they are buying energy from their "enemy".

If Putin cuts off gas supplies, Europeans will freeze to death and there will be lots of rebellion and shit.

It's indeed an interesting and probably valid point too.


Um... here you may have a point, but I'm not that much convinced. It's super outdated technology there and whatever "secrets" would be there, I'm almost sure that those were sold to all the interested nations long ago. And Russia knows that, so I don't see a real benefit there. And the actual devices... they may very well lay in rust...

Actually, Crimea was necessary for Russia not only for natural resources but also for its strategic naval value. Crimea had Russian naval base even when it was a part of Ukraine and Russia was operating its operations by leasing them. To get access to the black sea Russia needs that part of Ukraine So it was important for them to take control over that strategic important location and I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

There are 2 good reasons:
* he can play chess with Russia's gas
* he knows that the tanks can march on ice, but not on mud

I believe that he has thought on both these.


If they agree on NATO thing, then Russia will find something else, don't worry.
Also Europe on one hand don't want to upset Russia (gas & other reasons), while they want to appear strong (ha-ha) and want to look like they care about Ukraine's borders.
Many of Europe's actions are imho only a facade, sadly. Else, they could have helped liberating Crimea, and they didn't. Actually I don't know why Russia wants now more of Ukraine's lands (and which ones). Crimea may still have oil, Crimea has a lot of off-shore gas fields, it was a good business. The rest... I don't know.
There may be that this sad chess game is only to convince the "high powers" recognize that Crimea is now part of Russia?!

Actually, I am talking about Putin's tactical move on the Ukraine border. The tension was there for a long time but Putin didn't act on summer. Why he is taking action this winter? Because he knew EU doesn't have enough structure to import enough gas from other countries in a short time. So they must be dependent on Russias gas supply for this winter. If Putin has done this in the summer, then there won't be any problem for the EU because they would build infrastructure to import gas from other sources. Putin has done this so that the EU can not take any action to save their people from freezing to death.

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

Why winter? Because the Kremlin terrorists need an environment in which, by cutting off gas supplies to the EU, they can achieve the maximum effect, demoralizing the population. The freezing population in the country is a very strong challenge to the government of the country. This is a method of forcing the Kremlin, the EU countries, to coordinate the launch of NordStream-2 as quickly as possible (without it, they say, it is not possible to supply the necessary amount of gas to the EU), and also to cancel or not take new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Looking at EU gas reserves and supplies, alternative channels provide nearly all of the required gas for EU industry, but not enough to heat homes. The goal of the economic terrorists was precisely the inhabitants - the task was to "freeze" them in order to put pressure on the governments of the countries. But, in reality, it turned out that even the weather turned out to be on the side of the people, and somewhat spoiled the economic terrorist attack - there is no very cold winter in the EU this year, gas consumption has been reduced, which means that the available reserves should be enough not to kneel before the Kremlin terrorists .. .
And apparently the United States, the Saudis, Norway will now compensate for the shortfalls, thereby replacing and squeezing Russian gas out of the EU market. So Putin essentially "shot himself in the foot", which is typical of him

I guess the winter has nothing to do with this. This standoff has been going on for years, all seasons long. Even before the annexation of Russia of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries was already there. It wasn't as worse as now but it was already present. It mattered a lot that the leadership of Ukraine changed from pro-Russia to pro-Europe. But even prior to that, the two countries already have their history.

But still I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon, not within the winter at least, if at all. But things will depend on how negotiations will develop. I am still hopeful that despite the military buildup there won't be any war, though.

They are thinking not just twice in fact Bulgaria as well did not want Russia-US war because they know there is no imminent Ukraine invasion. The last time there was so much miscommunication was in WW1 and just a shot fired and they are in a war. This is what the Biden administration is confusing and they themselves are confused on what to do. Why would the EU want war when they are going to be affected too?

Blinken rushes to meet Lavrov to respond to Russia's proposal for peace but Bliken is not willing to publicize thier reply?  

The US told their ambassadors to get out of Ukraine to prepare for something to happen but the Ukraine president actually said everything in under control. The truth is that they were shhush away by every country there. Even Ukraine is not wanting war, it's just the media telling us there will be.

What twisted logic you have there!
So the US doesn't want the EU to be independent with gas, they need to destroy the pipeline that actually is making the EU dependent on Russia.
Honestly, do you even bother to think about what you write here?
If you depend on a manufacturer for all your spare parts and that manufacturer is not able to sell you parts and you shut down, have you actually lost your independence, or do you realize you have been totally dependent on it?


Who, Romania and Poland? Those countries hate Russia more than any country in Europe. Do you think they have forgotten what the USSR did, actually do they teach you in your history manuals how many Romanians and Polish people Russians have killed?
Besides, what bloodbath? Ukraine is inviting the US to defend its territory, just like Syria invited Russian troops, just how Kazakhstan did, why can't Ukraine decide for itself!? All Russia has to do to avoid a war is keep its army where it belongs, but yeah, quite hard for them to do so.


For starters is 40% of the imports, not of the consumption.
Second, if you have less than 30% gas you don't shut down everything, you shut down 30% of the consumers and the rest keep going.
On top of that, it's not like every country is going to be affected, Denmark Portugal, and Spain are not consuming Russian gas at all, France, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands are between  5 and 20% dependent.

If indeed the supply is shut, there is a temporary solution, shut down all ga powerplants and revive coal and oil powerplants and maximum capacity, that will give a breather for a while, right now with the current reserves enough to make it through March, when in half of Europe there is no need for heating anymore.

Of course, the consequences will dire, but what is Russia going to do with a 15% cut in its GDP?

EU didn't support war actaully in fact Germany and France disapprove of sending military equipment to Ukraine. It's not about Putin choosing Winter, it's the US traveling far away to the east chosing winter. It's a bloodbath for the US to go to Ukraine for war because the surrounding countries of Ukraine will eat them alive. They have enough of the US meddling with Arab countries.

Why in the world will Putin invade Ukraine when they are already there from the beginning, the people in Ukraine more than 60% is a Russian speaker. The countries surrounding it are Russian speakers. They wouldn't wait for the US to reach there if they have to invade Ukraine, they would have done it a long time ago.

The US is just confused about what to do with thier economy and they don't want the EU to be independent with gas. They need to destroy the gas pipeline of Russia to Germany so the EU will still need the US for gas and attacking Russia will be a good solution.

Seems to be true mate.EU had a demand on gas with the Russia, So they won't do some sanctions on Russia. Instead they do the peace talk. Only peace talk work with the Russia.As we Russia is a most powerful country as like the United Status. People won't forget about the Cold war between the United States and Russia.Russian are doing this for the Control over the Ukraine. But they had forgotten it, Ukraine is past brother of them.

We all know that there is tension on the Russia-Ukraine border. I am not going to talk about why this is happening, I think most of us already know that.

Maybe this is the right time for Putin to play with Ukraine. Because the price of fuel in the world market is skyrocketing. Gas prices in Europe have risen by 600%. It is now wintering in Europe. Heaters/burners are needed to survive in ice-covered Europe. That is why the demand for gas is the highest.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

Putin is a master planner or going to face heavy sanctions from the EU?