Topic: Why technical analysis is not reliable (Read 611 times)

Technical Analysis helpful for a trader, an experienced trader knows very well how much TA helps him while doing market analysis. Nothing is perfect, sometimes even the best things can fail, if trading was so easy, everyone could profit from trading. TA is widely used in the trading world for market analysis, and many successful traders have used TA to get into these positions. I think it is most important how a trader can see the market and predict the next movement of the market, and trading is all based on guesswork, no one or any system can predict the next movement of the market with 100% certainty.

Technical Analysis is just a tool that could help the trader but of course, it doesn't mean this will be the only reason why they succeed. But those who think this is useless or not reliable, I couldn't think how they become a trader when all traders are using this market analysis.
 -in fact, TA has a huge impact in making decisions and this is the way to determine if we have to sell/buy. Maybe some people don't think it was useful because they don't even trade in real life or never know how to use it.

Because majority of the traders are certainly relying on using technical analysis with its high advantage, and thus make them successful traders. But I do believe that they are well knowledgeable and skillful as well, and not just totally dependent on technical analysis. However, it’s actually doing a big part on them, the fact that they are also knowledgeable and skillful on how to use its technical analysis that becomes an essential aspect in the trading market.

What analysis do you use in trading so that you can make more money, trading has big risks and even experienced people cannot guarantee big profits every time they trade because it is speculative, but they understand how to recover previous losses by making subsequent trades. Trading also requires mental and decision making because when the market is not suitable, we can make quick steps so as not to suffer big losses.

Sometimes combined strategies are not appropriate because we have to adjust the market to the course of the coin we are trading. If we don't have the decision-making ability, it will actually be difficult to decide. Technical analysis is only valid for comparison and I think we need another analyst to strengthen it.

Technical analysis certainly has its place in a trader’s toolkit, acting a bit like a weather vane, showing where the market winds have blown. But just like the weather, markets are subject to sudden changes. The charts might show us patterns, but they can’t capture the mood of the world, the news breaking the airwaves, or the decisions made in boardrooms.

You’ve nailed it in pointing out its main limitations. It’s like driving using only the rearview mirror — you know what’s behind you, but it’s the road ahead that matters most. The assumption that history might repeat itself can sometimes have traders marching in a parade that’s already passed by. The interpretation of charts and patterns can be as varied as coffee orders — what’s a double-shot espresso to one might be a mocha latte to another.


indeed, technical analysis is not a crystal ball. It won’t account for a sudden political event, an unexpected earnings report, or even a viral social media post that sends markets into a frenzy. It’s a tool, but not the whole toolbox. Smart traders dance with technical analysis but also keep an ear to the ground for the fundamental beats of the market. It’s the mixtape of methods that often plays the sweetest tune for investment decisions.

That's right, actually technical or fundamental analysis
it is indeed useful and useful to help us in terms of making profits, this helps us in terms of analyzing the market before we finally decide to draw a conclusion that leads to a decision, but as you said, even if you use technical or fundamental analysis to help make it easier for you in terms of looking for profits, but overall it will not be able to guarantee that you will actually make a profit at the end of the session because after all the risk will continue to lurk.

Technical or fundamental analysis is only something that can help us increase the chances of possible profits, meaning that if you don't combine strategy with technical or fundamental analysis then the possibility of turning a decision into a profit is quite difficult, so I admit that your experience is true. and this is what you have to pay attention to when you become a trader.

You cant rely technical analysis?

Then how you would really be considering on how to trade into this unpredictable space? Via news? Fundamentals? Not anytime we do see some news on which you can able to rely upon into.
We've seen that this market is unpredictable, and even technicals doesnt really give out that precise predictions on where these prices would be going but doesnt mean that they are useless.
You would really be able to feel out its relevance on the time that you would step your foot into this market. You cant really be able to handle up yourself well without
having these technicals on which means that it would really be something that you will really be needing up to have that serious approach.

You would really be able to tell up the difference on using up technical indicators in compared into making up trades without any basis or analysis that be applied.

Technical analysis works if you also know how to deal with it effectively. It’s not that you will only resort into trading using technical analysis and you’re eventually making successful trades. It does not work like that. One should also learn how to read the chart and market pattens, should know how the price moves historically, and should be more inclined on making market analysis, that way you can highly utilize technical analysis and make it work effectively.

Using technical analysis has proven its usefulness in trading, but using it solely will not guarantee positive trading results. The best solution is to incorporate it with other trading methods and strategies so that there will be bigger chances of winning such trades. However, not using technical analysis in trading and just stick to other methods might also create an unsuccessful trade, that’s best from my own personal experience.

It's because sometimes it is working and reliable but not all strategies are like that. There are some that might be working but the majority of them cannot work at most times.

That's okay if that's what they feel. On this market, whatever strategy that works for you, then you have to use them for your own sake because no one is there to save you from your strategy but only you.

Of course, you can't appreciate the usefulness of TA when you are not interested in it, and if you have not tried using this.
Of course, nobody is forced to use TA but have to remember that trading without analysis is just that we are gambling. But if you can take a look at why traders are using this tool is because they found out that this is very important in trading and they can prove the difference from someone who is not using this compared to the one who consistently uses TA.

In fact, even just looking at the market chart is just like simply analyzing the possible market trend.

Your headline/subject is misleading, instead of saying reliable why not use "too much reliable". If it's not reliable, there wouldn't be the launch in the first place and many experts that has wrote many books about technical analysis wouldn't have bother but even today, their books are fast selling on Amazon and other retail book shops both online and offline.

Trading is a mixture of different things such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis, personal experience, emotions and also the choice of the platform you are using to trade. So, relying on just one particular one is will make you gain nothing in the market.

If you used one and forget to use the other one, you wouldn't make much. If you even use fundamental and technical and yet you lack experience in the game, you will not make much money like person or a trader that has been in the system for a very long.

I doubt TA is the overall forecast of the market, its only a bais showing how traders should react to the market, Fundamentals are needed and Fundamentals have more  impact on the market especially in FX market, but in crypto Fundamentals have less impact.
I agree with you that a good Technical Analyst have very high possibility being a profitable trader as far he knows and have an edge.

I don't buy the idea of using Technical indicators, as its misleading and doesn't show the knowledge or idea of a trader at all. Some Traders can't trade, they don't know anything about structure, or how the market react but know all types of MA, MACD, to mention but a few because I don't use indicators. Though we have leading and lagging indicators.

In essence do what works for you, we only react based on whatever our strategy is, as far we are getting paid leverage on what is working for you.

There is no risk in trading itself because we will just trade one thing to the other but the risk depends on us or on how we make actions because you know, many traders are greedy to put more money and pick up a more risky asset, thinking they can earn more from it. Another one is on what strategy we will use to initiate the trade.

For those types of traders, TA's might help but it wont eliminate the risks because there are many factors that can make the coin move in the direction as opposed to what we expected it will go. You already gave one factor there which is called manipulation. We can still avoid it if we won't rely on the analysis of others and then choose a much better coin.

Why do we think the technical analysis would be reliable when their are other analysis we can use to trade in the market.
Many people feel like if they don't use the technical analysis, they will not make money from the crypto market.
We could even make more money without using the technical analysis so we just have to understand the analysis we are using in the market because this would help one to make more profits in the market.

Technical analysis is reliable but that doesn't mean we have to trust them completely. In the market there are not only retail investors like us but also market makers, developers, whales, sharks...And people with a lot of money will never want to make money the same way as us, they will find every way to manipulate the market. Furthermore, we can analyze the market, why can't they? And the financial market is no different than a battlefield, if everyone can use fundamental and technical analysis and can see the movement of bitcoin, who will lose? So for me, everything is only relative, used for reference, but cannot completely trust TA or FA.

Have you ever thought: TA and FA are both things that market makers create and want us to use them? And that's the best way to manipulate us?

And you mean that there is a pattern in trading? Because if that is true and that story of yours is real, I can really imagine that person if not a millionaire, probably is a billionaire now in using that belief. But even it was published publicly, nobody would believe that because the market has never changed as it was still unpredictable in reality. Trading with just using a wild guess without a strong basis and market analysis, it just means that we are relying on luck and hope.

Having a TA doesn't mean we have to spend 24 hours a day or longer, it will just take a few hours to make it. Unless you are studying the entire market with thousands of different coins.

Are you f**king kidding me? Or do you really know what technical analysis entails? If you where talking of technical indicators, that would have been understandable because I have also gotten a fare share of my own experience with technical indicators, which only shows you what has happened in the market in the past, but not what's going to happen in the future, so if you really want to be successful in trading, using only the analysis of technical indicators to trade is a total failure.

So as a trader , it's very important you  to know what technical analysis entails, because technical analysis is the overall forecasting of the market, and what is expected next of it, if forecasting is the right word to use, so if you are very good at doing technical analysis in trading, their is a very high possibilities of you being profitable, if you can manage your risk properly.

I know before that there is someone who is making money trading financial market and what she was using was trading the Lunar Timing which creates a pattern trading depends on size of moon whether it is full moon today, halfmoon, or cloudy. Sound crazy as it is but it does work for her. She's basically trading her guesses and "analysis" with correct risk management yet she make money compare to other people who are over-analyzing the market.

Which means, knowing where the market will go next won't make you money. The only thing that would make you money is to know when to click and when not to click the buy/sell button.

Technical analysis is reliable, I am 100% sure about that because I have been looking at charts for years and you can frequently correctly predict whether charts will go up or down but there are moments when technical analysis can lie to you and that moment happens when there is a dramatic change on the market. When there is a news like China bans Bitcoin mining or Elon Musk's Tesla decided to not accept Bitcoin payments, this kind of news always dramatically affects Bitcoin's price and the predicted price that you built on technical analysis, goes wrong. Also, there are moments when whales sell or buy too many Bitcoins and price goes in an unexpected way.
You have to be always updated if you trade Bitcoins daily. If you aren't updated and solely build your success on technical analysis, you'll fail hard.

Technical analysis is a very impressive tool to analyse a project and try to predict its future performance but there are some other factors as well to ponder. The marketing strategy is also very important as you can see some projects with not good fundamentals but due to very strong marketing they perform very well.

The other factor that can play an important role is those updates that are announced by the projects. Technical analysis analyses data on the basis of previous features so it misses the updates. As we know that when projects don't perform well updates are launched to make projects better so it's a very important factor.

The point is that trading analysis helps us decide to what we gonna do next. With all the available data online - the price chart and the past market events, it was not hard for us to make a simple analysis and even if it was just a simple but yes, the results are at least at a bigger chance close to the actual trend. Those who think that TA is a waste of time and useless, are those people who are not actually in trading. Of course, these people don't see its importance because they are not trading in the first place. 

In trading you need to know the updated information of the market constantly it will depend on the correct analysis. Technical analysis in trading is a way to predict the most likely outcome, namely future price volatility, by using their past and future periods. Like weather forecasters the tools used in technical analysis and its results cannot provide 100% information about future price movements. It is wise to analyze the market yourself.

Manipulation could really mess up whether technical or fundamental analysis on which this is something that cant really be known. This is why it would really be best that you should really be able to know on how to make use of these things because it would really be something that relevant. You cant really just that make yourself that dive in into the market without having any proper analysis on which we know that this is something that you would really be needing to do because once you dont find yourself that having make use of these analysis then you are really just that simply doing gambling. We cant really be able to know on what would happen into the next minute on which it would really be just that right that you should at least be that knowing on what are the the things that you should gonna do.

You might find technical analysis might not really be that something relevant but on the time that you would really be hovering yourself into this market then you would be
able to realize that this is something important.

Manipulation is key but we have to note about another thing. Trading volume of altcoins is not high and applying technical indicators, technical analysis for altcoins with low trading volume will be risky. Market makers can easily bend the chart with indicators they want to use, and they don't need to spend big capital for manipulation.

For cryptocurrency market, it is true too because total market cap of this market is very small compares to many traditional markets.

The reason why most TAs don't work with alts or crypto is due to the fact that the behaviour of these alts are hard to determine esp if the team is playing the wash trading technique. Or they are about to exit the market and they are dumping their holdings. This is why to understand what is indeed going on with the project, you need to keep up with their announcements, social media postings and other channels you think they will be active in.

Trading is fully depend on analysis whatever you called it can be technical analysis or it can be fundamental analysis. Both are important for the professional trading but it is true that there is not guaranteed that for those analysis you will be make 100% profit. Because even then there are lots of successful trader I will also say they also had face loss. But in case of them the loss amount will be much lesser because intelligent trader use the stop loss. Will not be fully completed if we not use technical analysis so we can't underestimate technical analysis. Technical analysis is the essential things for trading.

Using technical analysis won’t guarantee sure profits. Although it can make some traders end up profitable with trading, but that also depends how those traders use technical analysis mixed with their general knowledge and skills in trading. Because otherwise, if they only rely on using technical analysis alone, that would not create high potentials to come up with a successful trade.

The market is highly unpredictable, and trading only using technical analysis will not be good enough. Good amount of trading experience will be a more reliable one compared to trading focusing only on technical aspects.

Technical analysis is not perfect but it works and many are still doing it and winning.
It’s not always about hitting the target, analysis are more about precaution and a guidelines on what to do next. We have to be more patient and accept the fact that we can’t outrun the market but we can still make money out of it, all you have to do is to be more consistent and be ready for risk.

While using technical analysis we already have in mind the risk of this type of analysis, since it's based on historical market data, technical analysis basically deals with possibilities and not like a prediction, so at such it shouldn't be 100%  percent relied on,  using technical analysis you will have to prepare for unfavourable situations by setting stop losses, that action alone means that the analyst is admitting that he might be wrong at a certain point.

Those who are already very professional will also not get any guarantees about trading and the tools used. Trading naked by just looking at how market conditions, charts and candles are taken into account quickly, but it is effective or not depending on how the market trend will continue. Analyzing fundamentals so carefully is also needed, because it will also affect the market and prices that will occur.

The problem is that TA is not something that is definite, meaning that not everyone uses the same TA, if I check the bollinger band of a coin and buy based on that, and if you check the EMA of it and buy based on that, we could have two different ways and two different entry points, and yet we both did TA. Or better yet, I could be a newbie who made a mistake while calculating, and you could be a veteran who did it exactly how it should be, we both look at the same indicator, but enter at different moments.

So, there are so many ways where people could actually end up figuring out how we could end up with a different thing while both also doing TA at the same time. Now expand that to tens of thousands of people who do TA.

Actually yes exactly as you said that however in the world of trading there is absolutely no strategy that can achieve 100% accuracy, it is impossible because after all this is a trade which always involves risk, simply put if for example there is a profit opportunity then there will always be a possibility of loss, it's always like that but maybe the difference is when you are really able to manage, control and run everything properly without doing something that is not recommended especially if for example you have experience and high enough flying hours then you will be able to make the chances of profit greater than the possibility of loss.

Technical or fundamental analysis is also the same in the end will never be able to provide 100% accuracy to really give a profit, the logic is that if for example it can make traders always end the session with a profit then obviously there must be a lot of successful traders, but the reality is not like that. As you explained above about TA and it is true that TA can only be relied on to find out the situation and market conditions that are happening, and usually I use TA only to determine whether the trend will be strong up or strong down or sideways so that when there is already knowing the situation then that's where I will make open positions, but still for the problem of possible losses can still occur.

TA gives interest areas based on past data and order flow to execute based on real-time data. You just need to understand when Shorts go aggro on support and get trapped, take long and enjoy them getting squeezed. Vice versa for shorting.

You forget that trading is all about predicting the future. History always repeats itself and this is true on trading. Those patterns and indicators is just keep repeating that’s many people use it as basis for trades because it’s proven working in the past.

If you hear about self fulfilling prophecy, this makes technical analysis valid because all traders is using it as basis with their trades. This creates a mass following to the signals given by technical analysis that’s you should use a technical analysis and patterns that is common and popular to guarantee that everyone is looking for it as reference with their trade.

The financial market is unpredictable, for me the best approach is simply not relying on only TA but also having a Fundamental backings of what the market is saying atleat to give you an edge and a direction in the market. Every trader need to have confluence and ensure all are met before they risk on any trade.
We must know the Market  does not respect anyone, and as such we only participate in a game of probability but with an edge we are good to go. So you do what works for you as  all approach have limitations, you just have to refined it as it suites you. Some use indicators, Support and Resistance, ICT, Algo, SMC, OR, etc all this is geared to make profits off the market in essence we see it on the trader to build on this and simplify it to be profitable in the market.

Once a trader can can remove every limiting factor in his system nothing again can tie him down. Rinse, Repeat and Refine.

Technical analysis is not 100% accurate I mean there is no analysis that always hit 100% win rate without a single loss or else maybe people are using the technique all the time.

To be honest, TA is reliable when much of people know the technique ex. EMA 100 and 200 is well know moving average to determine long term trend and the price usually reject at that level for 70% all the time I believe because a lot of people believe in it. or simple TA like basic supply and demand zone or support and resistance zone is has 80% accurate in my opinion

First of all, external market data can be used for technical analysis. People are constantly using them as data points and consider if some rumors for example have already priced in. Or if they will cause a perfect storm and trigger bots and traders to complete some patterns in the chart. And obviously sell the news is something people are waiting of if they know the date when rumor might get official press release.

And no trader trusts TA 100 percent certainty pecause accuracy of any TA, no matter what indicators they use is FAR from 100%. Percentage accuracies of it are really hard to measure because different time frames, different markets, different indicators can work very differently. It's far from exact science and i totally get why some people don't trust TA at all.

But imho we can't really judge TA as whole field of it consists of a huge spectrum of different techniques. Different traders don't trust different indicators or patterns. And some of them are laughing at meme lines, while they swear by elliot wave. And some are laughing trend lines calling them meme lines, and are perfectly fine using ichimoku cloud or combinantion of indicators and patters themselves, even if they would have so many settings and variables to look for that it would be impossible to measure any kind of accuracy for it.

And basically anyone can create an indicator. So if my indicator of solar eclipse cycles vs wick lenghts or something like it doesn't work, does that mean TA in general isn't accurate?

Personally i don't even care. I gave up complex indicators long ago as i can't calculate any probability for them. And i am using combination of "feeling" of the markets that comes with experience and combining them with most common patterns that i know people will be reacting to. And mostly looking at the big picture of the chart.

Tge technical analysis could be a reliable means to trade the forex market but not in the crypto market since we have different projects that the movement is not dependent on the market chart but rather on pump and dump. This happens in every cryptocurrency projects so we must be ready for the heart attack if we are truly a technical trader in the crypto space. Things mostly move the market without any technical analysis. It is information and hype that controls the market we need to be prepared for it.

Haha you got it right! People would really be making out those kind of sentiments basing up into the emotions and mindset that they do have specially on the time that they have failed on doing trading
and this time via making use of technicals and with too much failure and loses then they do really came up with this kind of idea that it doesnt really work and its not something that you could really be able to rely on
without even trying out to realize that these tools are the main ones being used by most traders. You cant really be able to read up a chart without having these indicators on which you cant really be able to make use of price actions anytime. This is why it would really be that normal that traders would really be making use of these indicators.

Naked trading could be considered to those people who are already that professional but still we would really be needing up to make use of these tools so that it could make out that reading up possible
entries and exits which we do know that it would really be relevant or something important. Also, not all the time this market would really be having news or major events on which
you could really be able to watch for.

I laughed seeing you make this thread, then what am I doing with technical analysis if it can't be relied on.
I've been studying technical and fundamental analysis for several years, but you said that it can't be relied on. It seems that you can't master it until you get frustrated and say that technical analysis is ridiculous and doesn't provide complete market details. Of course there are several combinations that are carried out because technical analysis will only predict the market based on existing data and seeing how the charts work.

Nobody can predict future that is why we get wrong predictions no matter how accurate we calculate for our trading. But for a day trader there is no other tool than rely on technical analysis and hope that this time their prediction will work and continue with that hope everytime.

If you feel you are not making profits then try changing your strategize and use different indicators but the fact is technical analysis is just a prediction not an assurance.

Technical analyses are not always perfect; they are assumptions made by trading experts based on experience and some tools they are using to make predictions, which are usually based on facts, and sometimes they are true but not reliable.

Aside from all these limitations, everyone that wanted to start trading should have learn so many things about trading which I believe after learning should be able to understand how risky crypto trading is. People with less knowledge and experience are always trying to blame technical analysis that we all know are not perfect and are not reliable because of how volatile market is.
Trading is risky, always avoid copying what others are doing if you don’t understand to avoid losing money easily.

The main situation that could mess up technical analysis is on the time that there would really be some sudden news or simply with those fundamentals on which it would really be something that would make tons of traders would really be liquidated specially to those who do make out some future positions on which we know that one red candle wick or green could really lead into those traders to burn out their capital or their positions.
This is why its not really not reliable but there are really moments or conditions on which could mess up technical analysis but we do know that not all the time this market would really be having those news.

It would really just that matter on a certain individual whether they would really be that focusing too much into those TA. Although this is much more better rather than
on making yourself having those random approach or positioning without any basis and this is something not that recommended once you hovered yourself into this market.
You would really be needing that educated approach on dealing up with volatile prices. It might not guaranteed but at least you are going in the right path.

the weakness of technical analysis is that when the market is under pressure, for example when an american official says that they will raise interest rates higher, this will affect the market directly and no matter how hard you do technical analysis it will not work. so as traders, we should not only rely on technical analysis, because at any time the market will change, we must also be able to see news and rumors on the market, so that will be able to help us determine more profitable positions and prevent serious losses.

My question to you is: is technical analysis not helpful to other traders? Now, if technical analysis is not reliable, shouldn't other traders stop using it? Is that right?

Let's just assume that technical analysis is not really reliable. What method should a trader use or do to get profit from trading on any exchange platform if we don't
do technical analysis anymore? Please answer OP so that we can be enlightened here on this forum platform.

Technical analysis is only as a complement part of various strategies because accuracy cannot be seen in a much greater percentage. Technical analysis is sometimes needed but not as a test of the overall process in trading because it is more to the statistical assumptions. A trader will use many indicators to start trading and usually they will use the most appropriate to decide when trading. Need the ability to undergo trading and not to mention talking about the control of the risk management.

That's why people consider trade too difficult for beginners because of the many considerations they need to decide. Even for a class of people who are experienced in trading also sometimes it will be difficult to determine the direction of trading when taking profit and stop loss because the market changes so fast.

Since nothing is 100% accurate, the only thing you can do if analysis doesn't work most of the time is try again later. We are all aware of the risks involved before we enter the trading world. Risk of perhaps losing your money. The market's movement can fluctuate because it occasionally reacts to news, which might alter the candles' entire structure and make predictions less successful. Traders also lose money as a result.

Furthermore, the analysis is meant to assist you stay on course and relieve you of the burden of making judgments because the market is never constant. People often struggle to decide what action to take, therefore one requirement for becoming a trader is being able to read the market and perform analysis. Only then can someone be referred to as a trader.

There are so many indicators, and some are easy to understand that almost every trader knows them and understands them. It is the more complicated indicators that are subject to different interpretations from different traders, and those are the ones to avoid. keeping things simple can be the best way to get results. With a good understanding of the simple indicators that every trader understands, chances of becoming profitable increases.

You may disagree that TA is useful in trading but have to think this - better trade having some basis and guide rather than doing like you are asking for luck and don't have any idea if this is a right or wrong call. It may be not useful on your end OP but do you think why the majority are using this tool? It only just means that traders consider this as a helping tool to decide when to sell and when to buy. Indeed, it was just an assumption because we never know what is coming but at least, with the use of Technical analysis, our decision is clear and at least have some assurance.

Dice, coins, the color of the first bird to fly by, the side on which you wake up...Since all these actions will at first be random but with time as more data build up for sure you could make TA out of this, I'm pretty sure that there will be people who will make 90% profitable trades in days when it rains!
After all, again, it's past events that you hope to be repeated in the same way!



Nope:


Fun fact, according to all possible charts, a negative value for oil was impossible to predict, because there wasn't any tool or method that would be able to take into account negative values, yet...it happened!  and the only ones that did predict it did it because of market conditions, not because of charts or indicators as there was none which would have been of use!

You cant be able to make yourself that be so sure of even if you are using up that fundamentals purely on which it would really be needing that in line with technicals so that at least you are having some idea on whats going on
or possible movements that could really happen. This is way much more better rather than putting up yourself on having some position without any basis and this is something which is not that recommended or ideal.
Its not reliable? How you do say so? Trying out to compare on making up some trades without any basis or analysis. You would really be able to make yourself that find its relevance.

So the question is, how you would really be that making yourself that making up some positioning towards the market without any basis. We do know that it cant really be
that just that too easy on handling yourself on a very speculative market on which it is really that something that do talks about total unpredictable and truly
giving out that random movement.

You cannot be 100% certain by doing technical analysis or any other analysis. Through technical analysis or any other analysis we can only predict that the next movement of the market may go in a certain direction but we are not sure that the market will go in the same direction. Many times it is seen that the market goes in the opposite direction of what we predict by analyzing the technical analysis and the market chart well. Sometimes there is so much bad news in the market that usually our analysis does not work properly. If a candle is four to five times larger than the normal way the candle fluctuates, then the prediction we made will not be correct because the market will suddenly move much higher. So, if you can analyze it correctly, it may match the market changes to some extent, but not completely match your analysis.

But for me, technical analysis is the nearest way to trade and support your analysis. It's not guaranteed yes, but a lot of professional traders use technical analysis for a living, cryptocurrency or not cryptocurrency technical analysis really exists.
Just think that trading will not give you a 100% guarantee.

One major problem with most technical trades is that they tend to rely on their predictions about the market other than supposed reactive , Also never forget that traders emotion plays a key role in determining trend, this is why you experience sometimes a sudden market change in direction, take you for instance, you might decide to buy a market but price reverse, this is where you as a trader suppose to react, so there are couple of reason why we have stop loses. Therefore, as a trader if you want to get the best out of market you must combine both technical analysis and the fundamental analysis, both makes what we call market analysis.

Still TA must not be underrated either, TA is the best tool we have available to predict what the markets may do, and while it is true that TA is based on the past actions of the markets, what else can we use to predict what the market may do other than its past? So while anything can happen, even things that we have never seen before and which could make any prediction useless, at the same time we do not really have any tool that can come close to predict what the market could do with the same accuracy of TA.

Well, your topic centered on technical analysis. Before now I have read some comparison between technical and fundamental analysis. Later I began to read about psychological analysis. All these tools do not make 100% sense independently, as they need each other in order to make a complete sense. Whoever is an expert on technical analysis should also know a bit of the fundamental analysis and vice versa. When there is a news in the society, you will understand that the chart will start tilting towards the news in the fundamentals. This is also applicable in the order way round. But then, the power of technical analysis should not be overemphasized. The knowledge of the charts and candlesticks is very important in cryptocurrency trading. No matter its limitations, its advantages overwhelms the limitations.

Really not that reliable but something that you could really be able to mainly make use with once you do hover yourself into this market on which it would really be just that a normal approach that you would really be having considering that this market is never been that predictable in the first place. You cant really just that make yourself that putting up some entries or exits without plotting these indicators into your chart. Yes, it doesnt really give out that precise prediction when it comes to trading. It would really be that still relevant no matter what. Try yourself on hovering into this space without using any TA's on which you would really be having that hard to know on to set up your entry points or even exits. Basing or depending about news or fundamentals isnt something that you could really be able to see on everyday on which it would really be that a normal
approach for you to make use the other way around.

You would be able to see its relevance once you do make yourself that get lost or doesnt know on what you could gonna do with the market on trying out to predict prices on where it could
potentially go.

Anyone saying the technical analysis is not reliable is not an informed trader because it is so reliable to me. Of course, I can't expect 100% success from it, and those traders who could possess a technical strategy with at least 75% winning should have the reliability with management, needless to say, some traders are still getting 95% or more from their technical analysis. So it is all about you, what you know and how you use what you know.

About your points, let's look at them one after the other;

1. You are so wrong about this. For it to use the past details to predict the future outcome doesn't mean it's bad, especially when you use the support and resistance strategies, including price action on the higher charts. That's its principle of operation, and the market is dynamic itself and it always respects the past records you are downgrading. And it respects it mainly because the market itself in the absence of new economic data/events, dances to the tune of the past records since it is not the market that trades itself, it is people who trade it. So, since people read the past record to predict the future and invest/trade due to that, the market often moves in that direction.

2. Yes, this point is valid. We have many traders all over the world and many would read the market differently. Above all, the main trend often prevails, so be a good trend trader. And if at all you would try a retracement/reversal, be a very good support and resistance trader. Also, to avoid any issues during the bad days use the right risk management.

3. I like you to know that all the burdens of trading should not rest on the shoulders of the technical analysis because it is merely a chart reading. How can't it know the economic happenings? But surely, it often adjusts itself on detecting them if you are a good chart reader. I see this often and change my stance if it has affected the initial market pattern. As the market is dynamic, the readers of the trading charts should be dynamic as well.

Anything that uses past/historical data as a basis or predictor for future outcomes is always unreliable. If you want to predict the price of a coin in the future with certainty, you'll also have to predict the dynamics (including crypto events) that will happen in the future, which is impossible. Therefore TA always comes with probability, and the longer the time frame, the higher the deviation.

It is all fortune telling. That's what TA essentially is. However, that doesn't mean it is completely crap. It has its uses but it is not the main deciding factor when making trades. Let's say it is just another tool in the toolbox which has many and more important other tools. I would rather try to guess the macro economics in the world instead of relying on TA. To me, the interest rates in the US are far more important than the most famous TA indicator on tradingview. Or the situation in Ukraine and Palestine for that matter.

It is exactly because majority of traders see these past trends and know these past market trends, that makes it relevant. Traders see it and understand the implication on the market, and the appropriate reaction to it.

Do not trade against the trend, the trend is your friend.

This is why every trader should make it to habit to always verify the trend of the market through technical and fundamental analysis and not just technical analysis alone.

i think it's just this time of the market that TA might not be reliable since the market touches the ATH pre-halving, there is much adjustment in the charts after halving. and then you can add up the Bitcoin ETF that is making the investor bullish to the highest level while the global economy is also in bad shape. 

but usually, TA is reliable. the time however is not reliable but when the printing goes brrr and inflation is unstoppable, anyone who holds cash will lose money and the only way to win is to invest.

Some other methods of analysis that a trader can adopt to be successful at both short, medium or long term investments may include fundamental analysis and in some cases also, sentiment analysis. I think sentimental analysis is mostly employed by forex traders as compared to crypto traders.

However, while the Fundamental analysis speaks on the economic factors that can affect the currency prices, and is most useful for long term investments,
Technical analysis is more efficient for short term trading and market timing, because it sets its eyes on the past price movements of the market and then try to predict the future price action before taking one on the instant.

The Sentiment analysis aims to share scope on how the psychology of a trader could affect his/her trading decisions, just as the name implies.

If a trader can learn to consult and combine all these three analysis before conducting trade or making investment decisions, am very certain that loss would be minimal and incomprehensive.

Maybe the full details can't be given, but at least it can give an individual trader an idea of the trading activity on an exchange. Maybe it's not right to say that it's not reliable, because if it really isn't reliable, don't use it.

But how do you read the graph on the exchange price coin if you don't use it? What will you use for fundamental analysis? Will that be enough for you to determine the direction of the price value of the coin you are trading?

So flipping coins would have the same efficiency, not that I am against those percentages  


Yes, it does, just because traders keep looking at indicators like gamblers look at time forms or past results doesn't make one more accurate than the other, TA is based on past events, and since the past is past and nobody can predict the future TA is efficient only if history repeats itself.
So if Kane doesn't score in the third match two goals after not scoring two goals in the previous two matches that's just an accurate prediction as saying Bitcoin will never reach a new ATH before halving cause it didn't do it in the previous three.....ups!  

  

One thing to note here is that no method of analysis that is actually 100% accurate and reliable. Moreover, it depends on each individual trading pattern and preferences. It's all about sticking to the method that works for you either fundamental, technical or any other methods. Sometimes, analysis is just a minor issue and doesn't necessarily matter but what is more important is your designated strategies and how you can stick to it. You can not just be jumping in and out of trades by using any method of analysis without a clear strategy.

Each of these methods of analysis has their own unique role and advantages. They are helpful in decision making process for both investing and trading but they are not guaranteed for profits because market study is more than just analysis.

You know that's why there are stop limits being placed with every trade? To make sure that the amount that a trader would lose would bee capped to a percent that would be acceptable to the trader. Trading is basically one that you cannot predict 100% of the time that's why it's important to have risk management and not always go in on something and be sure that you are going with it strategically.

Technical analysis can't be 100% accurate. In fact, it is not supposed to be anything.

You have charts, and graphs, and other signals as an analyst. Those are all datasets that already happened, it's fact you can't change.

Analysis is based on them, but always using your own 'bias' and 'opinion'. You can use someone elses signal, but it becomes their bias and opinion. You can use AI but it becomes analysis based on algorithm.

So of course none of them become 'accurate'.

Analysis is supposed to just give you predicted direction. Instead of random guessing. Calculated risk is still a risk

That's why there are other tools used by traders, such as "indicators,"  "trends," and, of course, the current state of the economy related to a currency. If it's crypto trading, then news about the currency and the "trend" is one of the tools being used by traders.

it doesn't mean that a traders is using technical analysis is that they are plotting their chart pattern based on the previous movement of the currency, that's not the always case, it depends on what kind of trader are you, and depends on the market time frame, I'm not a very expert traders but I know the basics and beyond that, so if for you technical analysis is not reliable then try to trade without one let's see how can you trade without reference or guide, technical analysis is surely not a 100% accurate but this tools is used in order to have a reference or hint on what will be the next movement of the market, and their assumption or predictions is being used with thinking and fair decision making.

Those traders that doesn't use risk management, what might be their reason?? Can we call it greed or risk taking because most times it pays off,  it's cool to take risk I mean a risk you can bear,  just like gambling you don't stake an amount you are not ready or will I say willing to loose, but in all I will always advice every trader to back up their trade with a plan B, that is where risk management comes in, in other to be on a safer side of the trade.

Trading is risky itself.

Technical analysis can not  help traders to exclude risk from trading.

Technical indicators can be manipulated by whales and they can set up their games by bending indicators to make most of market participants to believe that a next market movements will be like what is written in books.

At the end, they turn it around and the market will move oppositely against what is thought and believed by the crowd. Traders will be killed and liquidated if they use leverage with strong belief on technical indicators and analysis.

In any strategy when you gamble, not all of the strategies are guaranteed. That's why whichever is working for you, that's what you have to make some consistency on it.

But if one strategy doesn't work for you then all you have to do is to dispose and stop that strategy and try to find a better one.

You have to be creative on this market as a trader because not everyone that works with us will also work with the others.

It's why when you are trading, risk management is very important, no matter how sure one is about the trend of the market and no matter what Technical Analysis tells them. But there are some traders who urge that they never use risk management tools like stop loss. Perhaps they just use a small portion of their equity to trade, or they have probably never had their account get burned when there is a catastrophe in the market.

Technical Analysis is just of the many analysis use by traders to analysis the market. Trades make use of fundamental analysis to evaluate their confluence on a particular market which even with the combination of both the market might still not go as planned because all are still speculations which are definitely not accurate. But this doesn’t defeats the importance of technical analysis because it is the only analysis readily available to any trader at every moment of time. The fundamentals and otters are periodic analysis.


Exactly most of this investors use higher time frames like daily time frames or monthly time frames for their analysis unlike most trades that relies on lower time. That’s why most of this investors are mostly placed in the category of swing trades.

Trading is very risky. Technical analysis is not 100% accurate. According to my trading experience, I will say that indicators are only 50% accurate while also 50% inaccurate. Traders needs other strategies to make sure that they trade and gain than lose.

Technical analysis is mostly used by traders and not for investment but for trading. But some investors also make use of technical analysis, setting it to weeks or months, but they do not rely on it unlike traders rely on it.

 technical analysis is a useful tool for traders, but we have to consider it's limitations. Technical analysis is basically based on assumption about the past market statistics and data, without putting into consideration other external factors . So traders should not 100 percent rely on technical analysis, they should use it together with other methods of analysis.
 Some of its limitations includes
1.it is based on assumptions about past market trends, gotten from the past market price and  volume data
2.it is a backward tool subject to interpretation from different traders.
3.Technical analysis will not provide the full details of the market,  that is putting economic and global events into consideration,
so traders should put all these factors into consideration before making an investment decisions using technical analysis.