Topic: Why the us dollar might crash significantly (Read 394 times)

Bleah, GDP PPP, which the CCP can play around with by subsidizing some thing so it appears than your 100 yuan are worth 1 quadrillion euros, the PPP indicator, or how to tell people in Bangladesh that their bread is the equivalent of dining on foie gras on Champs-Élysées.

Here is an actual indicator, which btw, holds true even if we express it in BTC
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-US



This is the actual reality!

If you go with that stupid GDP PPP indictor:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=BD-CH-SE-NO
Bangladesh is doing better then Switzerland, Sweden and Norway!
That must be the reasons why so many Scandinavians are trying to seek refuge there and not the other way round! 

I think it’s unlikely to happen but not impossible. There are ways that the US $ could potentially crash. One key factor is excessive government debt which can erode confidence in the currency. A large trade deficit where the US imports more than it exports can put pressure on the $ value. Economic instability, political uncertainty & global events can also have an impact on the $ stability. Interest rate adjustments or quantitative easing can affect the value of the $. These factors if not effectively managed can contribute to a potential crash in the US $.

Here we go. Another wild conspiracy theory about the dollar crashing. Some people need to wake up and face reality which is the dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger with time regardless of the changing times.

The US and the dollar will continue reigning supreme unless they self-destruct due to their own stupidity which obviously has a low likelihood of happening. Think!

Well this is for me a kind of war on economic super powers and the seizure of funds plus the sanctions are just a portion of the ongoing economic war between Russia, North Korea and America that is why some other nations do not even try to violate the interests of the US. It has nothing to do with the dollar getting crashed by other currencies because majority are still pegged to the dollar and that is what it makes stronger than any other currency. The dominance will still be there as long as majority of countries use the dollar to trade commodities worldwide.

during the war conditions the economy involved in the war either directly or indirectly will experience problems. especially the problem of currency value. because the war opponents also want destruction for their war opponents. and in this case the United States must spend a lot of money on its budget to help the Ukrainian military with its military equipment whose nominal prices and costs are not small, including those that disrupt the economy so that it affects the value of its currency in this case the dollar.

Growth goes up and down, and it's a lot easier to grow when you are starting from a smaller number. China's economy has been running into problems lately that are bad signs for the future.

So what makes you think China is going to sustain that growth? What about their system, inherently, makes it so they will always grow faster than the US?

And China spends a greater percentage of their GDP on their military than the US does, so....

   

China is doing exceptionally well compared to US and that is the reality, if you are too blind to witness then I can't argue about that. The US investing heavily on defense whereas other countries are utilizing the same money to bring more revenue to their government.

I also think it would make sense for the US to continue to strengthen their economic sector rather than thinking more about other things that have no effect on the competitiveness they have generated so far. Because the influence of this economic force is also quite clear, it can be evenly distributed and comprehensive for every sector so that any country will remain strong if it has had a lot of success through the economic sector and also other sectors that can influence the economic growth of the country itself.

What makes you think China is so perfect? I would dub their government to be far less stable than ours.

Everything has a threshold limit, if the US keeps pushing its limits harder then I don't see why they can't fail.

All the countries knew that China is progressing to surpass US in a decade or two in terms of overall GDP which can turn the geopolitics upside down, so what US needs to do is try to stronger their economy instead of keep repeating the mistake they have been doing for the 50 years.

That's what America and Europe are afraid of. Despite various pretexts for helping Ukraine with the motto that Russia must lose, the real fear is the loss of hegemony and the fall of their currency. But believe me, everything will be possible, nothing is impossible, now China can surpass America in the world market, it is not impossible that one day the dollar will be abandoned by many countries and in the end the dollar will fall drastically.

Moreover, with the creation of a new trade order and economic system so that it does not depend on the American dollar and Euro, if the foreign exchange reserves of countries such as Russia, China and even BRICS members are large, it is very possible that the value of the dollar and euro will weaken.

You forgot the part that the US can always print more dollars to fund their wars and stuff, the war on Ukraine is already a resounding success for the companies that manufactures radars and new weapon systems so there's no way that they'll crash, the US government wouldn't mind adding a few more trillion dollars of debt to their name in the name of being the strongest superpower nation in the country. They'll continue to be like that to keep the dollar as the money that will turn this world around. Global politics is complicated and what you're saying might not be true and what I might not be saying is true too but we can't be sure but I do know that it's definitely difficult to crash the US dollar or even crumble the US government.

I strongly feel that all of these predictions are threat to the US dollar.Can the US dollar really crash?A currency is liable to crash when it loses it's  value completely or is entirely abandoned by the governmental body organizations.An occurance of these events
and economic factors can contribute to depreciating the U.S. dollar. These include monetary policy, rising prices or inflation, demand for currency, economic growth, and export prices.
 
  The US dollar crashing seems impossible to me initially,because it has been the worlds most used and prominent currency ever the since the second world war.If it eventually crashes,there will be a disastrous and catastrophic damage to the worlds economy hereby leading it into a global recession.

I know the BRICS countries are trying to promote thier currency in global trade.They have been making efforts to increase their global influence and adoption but its all a competition;BRICS vs US dollar,the US dollar is king,let's watch it unfolds.

Apparently,there is'nt any alternative currency to the US dollar,the US dollar is second to none and let's all be guided on how to survive in this economical uncertainty.

If some country adheres to the concept of terrorism, ignores international laws, agreements, and commitments, and behaves like scum - such countries and regimes should certainly transfer their assets. Exchange the dollar for the ruble, and transfer assets to.... And by the way - where will the terrorist countries move their assets?

To rebalance debts, recover losses from laws broken is not new news in terms of trade balance and agreements I think we can go back decades for moves against rogue governments.  We could speculate is USA doing this unilaterally do they have the backing all members of the WTO for example, not all but I think its not unprecedented action.
  Venezuela is one country I can think of regularly seizing the assets of foreign firms as evil capitalists not matching their governments agenda to empower their people with the control and ownership of everything.  Sadly that attitude didnt work out and the government is resolved to yet another military dictatorship failing and killing their own people while sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world they cannot use them properly or allow others to help them do so.  
   In any case Venezuela had to pay for the assets seized, they risked seizure of any good traded internationally.  Russia again has done this for decades not just Ukraine but often unable to respect international law and no doubt will continue in the same way, again they have regularly had assets seized in order to settle the debt.  Its still damaging and failure in business but the process to return back value lost is not a new occurrence.

Socgen just sold assets to a Russian company for example, in the middle of a war which is illegal occupation of a sovereign state but it would be a failure to block or fail to pay for these assets and expect no debt to be accrued.

We are already in times preceding a new world order of which ushers in new currency for some of the major countries in the world. The BRICS nation already see such happening to the dollar because with such expenses and use of dollar to fund wars, the exchange rate rises to compensate the value it offers at that time.
Many countries trade with the dollar and if it were to crash tomorrow, the economy of many countries would be varsly affected. Interest rates will sky rocket unless there is an alternative to the fiat and foreign exchange use.
 That's what and why cryptocurrency stands to assure continued transaction across border despite the exchange rates, the dollar crashing or rising and the tax system involved.

it is bound to crash significantly from the get-go. The only thing that's really stopping it from now are a few planks plastered across the door so the pandemonium couldn't come in, but since these are nothing but band-aid solutions its bound to break or lose its effectivity soon, and when it does the US dollar's gonna fall along with all the currencies and assets/enterprises that built their foundations around it. No amount of Russian War's gonna stop nor hasten the effect of this cascade as it's gonna run it's course no matter what, so while your inference is correct I couldn't for the life of me agree with the reasons why you came up with the same prediction.

The debt ceiling is already increased and next year, they will have to increase it again or else they are going to be in deep financial trouble. They couldn't possibly pay off all their loans now since the US is not resource-rich, nor could they outsource their workers, plus most of their debts came from the stupid wars they waged against other countries so I doubt people are just gonna let them slide that easily. We truly are in the dark times now so it seems.

that doesn't sound like it can justify the confiscation. they created a problem for Russia to not be able to pay after being blocked from SWIFT and then accused them that they didn't pay.  but this wasn't the first time, remember the assets of Afghanistan were also seized when the Taliban took over the government to which they claim the funds will be used for the victims of terrorism to justify. regardless of who governs the country, the asset still belongs to the country.

it might depend on how other countries will interpret it but these countries found an alternative to SWIFT to conduct their international trades.
they were pushing countries like Russia, Iran, China, and NoKor to have a system where they could trade freely without using USD. it's a lot harder to control them in the end.

1. Most the assets of the Russian central bank are in Europe, so I don't think that Joe Biden has a major role in the decision about whether or not to confiscate the assets.
2.The European politicians and bankers aren't dumb. They know the consequences of such decision, so the European authorities are trying to come up with legal justification of such confiscation. Confiscating the assets without a proper judicial justification means stealing.
The best decision would be to use the blocked Russian assets to payout the Russian government debt, which is owned by western creditors. Many banks and investment funds used to own Russian government bonds, but Russia failed to pay interest rates, because it was banned from the SWFT system. Such solution would be way better than "confiscate the assets and give them to Ukraine".

This method is clearly not working out in favor of west hence they should adopt a different strategy and it's a loss to west that more countries might start getting alienated from USD. joe biden and whoever gives these non sense suggestions should understand that they are just increasing suffering of ordinary people by doing this and it would create create hatred amongst the mind of ordinary people and they are not causing any damage to Russian regime. Already were have seen so many failed sanctions and siege on Iranian front going harmless on the regime.

If Biden executive were losing vote to fund Ukraine in the House of Representative, moving on to using the frozen Russian assets around European Bank is not the solution. I doubt those Europe Banks will allow it, they wouldn't want to lose their trust and reputation. And not only that, if U.S is actually doing it, it will give another country to do the same thing with any countries that is not in their favor. It will be going back and forth, and keep getting worse.

What you are referring to is not exactly "devaluation", it is just exchange rate dropping because most countries didn't heavily increase the interest rate which would put any economy into recession and put a tremendous pressure on regular people, but US did increase interest rates. That means dollar got artificially higher in comparison to other fiats.
In fact the increased interest rate is an indication of a faster dedollarisation otherwise they wouldn't have had to increase the rates in first place.

Besides, that is not what dedollarisation means. Dedollarisation means countries that were using dollar in their international trades and as their reserve currency, start replacing it with other assets. It could be currency of other countries (eg. Arabs using Yuan to sell their oil) or it could be amassing gold (which is what most countries are doing).

I just wanted to add that Treaty of Versailles was one of the main reasons leading to WW2.... that was equivalent of $442 billion... just saying...

Well, I'm fed up with these big powers that go to war and just spend money on weapons and more weapons, people are dying all the time, inflation is killing us in many ways, and there are many bad things around cause by big powers. I'm fed up with these politicians who just invent new conflicts and make this world even more complicated. At the end of the day, those billions wouldn't even exist if they didn't all work with each other, yesterday partners today enemies... and they still make billions, as usual, on the backs of good and ordinary people. So this is another good reason why we should love and embrace crypto.

I hope that we will see all fiat currencies crashing...

This will just backfire as other countries especially Balkan nations and those who have good relationship with Russia or else those who don't wish to be at risk of going through what happened with Russia because they will take it in a way that it's Russia now and in future if they go against USA or even have any disagreement then their fund would be freezed as well.

IMO neither this has impacted Russia nor had any significant impact on the ongoing war, it would only  cause harm to USD.

they are already at war. but the seizure of Russia's assets will make other countries think their asset is also not safe if they also are going to get involved in this politics. india is currently in conflict because of the regime change attempt which they may also see as possibility that their assets will also be frozen. and this is what OP means today it's just Russia's asset so who will it be in the future?

since this is already a trust issue for other countries, they will prepare for what may come next especially because IMF has power over each country.

if biden does this, it can be predicted that this could trigger russia and its allies to go to war with the us and europe, because even though european authorities have frozen russian assets from moving out of their region, these assets have sovereignty immunity which cannot be taken away. if europe and the us continue to insist on doing this, it would be the same as disturbing russia's sovereignty and war could be a step taken by russia to maintain their sovereignty.

Agreed, following through with this plan could potentially spark a domino effect with the trust of nations and the USD continuing as the WRC. Why not just print that money or hey here is a great idea why doesn't the US Government just get out of this war and funding it in the first place!!!! Its completely barbaric and stupid, President Biden will go down as the worst US President perhaps lol

That was my take too: this is just a partisan attack dressed up as economic analysis. $300 billion is jack squat in the context of the US dollar even if they lit said dollars on fire.

I see in the thread opinions as political posturing that results in being for or against what the OP says. I honestly don't see this affecting either the euro or the dollar. I have been hearing about de-dollarisation for a while now and in the end what is happening is that the rubbish currencies are devaluing even faster than the dollar and people in those countries buy assets to shelter from that devaluation, if they buy a currency for shelter it is mainly the dollar, and if not the euro or other reliable ones, like the Swiss franc.

If this could be done to Russia another high profile country then smaller economy countries will be afraid hence surely find away to move there reserves else where because the effect of the action of Joe Biden can turn to other countries.

Since the world power can seize such an amount (assets) from Russia in the name of helping Ukraine it will surely get to other countries too so they will just have to move away the US dollar and Euros that might end up crashing the currencies as you said earlier.

I don't even see Joe Biden's action to be a way of disrupting the war rather I think is just for a selfish reason that has to do with the US itself.

Though Russia has been doing more harms than God to other smaller force countries from history but I don't see this to be a punishment to Russia. There are other ways to handle such cases.

What can Russia do? Nothing but empty sound! Remember their “heroic” squeals, what will happen if the West supplies weapons to Ukraine? What's the result? NOTHING. Remember their screams: “If you give missiles to Ukraine, we will answer you, you will suffer terrible punishment.” What's the result? NOTHING ! I remember the screams from the Kremlin with threats to stop the supply of gas, oil, frozen Europe and a bankrupt dollar! What's in the toga? NOTHING !
Remember - Russia is a fake country, a country of cheap shit...

The only thing that Russia has done is to show that it is a country that does not keep its word, does not comply with its obligations, its word is an empty phrase. Do you think that you can do business honestly with such people!? As Russia acts, so is how it is treated, and its squeals about compliance with the law in relation to its reserves look comical....

You cannot understand one thing - Russia is a terrorist country. And if she is not stopped in Ukraine, helping Ukraine, she is GUARANTEED to continue her terror, first in Europe and then further. What they are already OPENLY declaring! And as practice in Ukraine has shown, Russia is afraid of only one thing - a strong and painful response. This means you can’t play softly and “gentlemanly” with her - if Russia fired 1 shell at you, fire 10 at her, and then 20 more! And just then she will tuck her tail between her legs and run away screaming. Russia is a vile and cowardly country that can only wage war against a obviously weaker one, or vilely - by committing terrorist attacks. She is not capable of more - study history

Economically, Russia is an empty place in the world economy. What can it influence? Gas? So the EU is already living well without it. Oil ? This way the market will stabilize, and all attempts at economic terror in Russia have failed. And what else in the global economy can Russia influence? No matter what!

How concerned are people around the world about the fall of the dollar because they have their own currency? Even in several official forums, state officials have dared to say that they will no longer be dependent on the dollar.
Here I want to emphasize personally that the financial system will never be stable so that those who understand the working system of fiat currency will never care about what happens to that currency.

The global economy is highly dollarized, hence it will be difficult if not impossible to avoid the dollars in global financial transactions. For now, the dollar has no competition in the global economic space so nations will still be forced to keep their reserves in the US dollar. There have been different efforts to create a currency that will compete with the dollar but none of them have lived up to expectations. Until there is a viable alternative, nations will still have to fall to the dollar, even if they risk losing it because of sanctions.    


Let me explain what the OP was trying to explain. Most countries use the US dollars as foreign reserves and most of them are kept in foreign banks. Russia has huge funds that have been frozen in European banks due to the invasion of Ukraine. OP feels that many countries might be forced to dump the US dollar or the Euro as a reserve currency and also withdraw their assets from foreign banks because these funds could be seized if they ever have disagreements with the West. He is assuming that the fear of confiscation of funds, many nations might start seeking alternatives to the dollars to avoid sanctions.  

Russia is a very big and powerful country so economic ban on their country does not have any bad effect on their country. In the war between Ukraine and Russia, America directly supported Ukraine and directly supplied them with weapons, but they could not make Russia retreat from the war. Russian football has been banned from FIFA and many other economic sanctions have been imposed on the country, but the country's economy is fine because everything is available in their country and some countries are directly dependent on Russia. All the nuclear power plants that have nuclear power plants are directly supplied by Russia, so no country would want their nuclear power plants to shut down, and if they didn't, they would have to maintain their relationship with Russia. Russia is nuclear strong and they are very strong in agriculture so no sanctions can affect them badly.

Which world?
North Korea , Iran and Syria?
Oh, the US is trembling in fear!

You know how much money has already been confiscated and used for Ukraine help by countries who are barely the size of a US state and Russia didnothign but babbling like madman knowing they can't do a thing?

Think for a moment, you have a bully beating up a smaller kid, taking his backpack and when another bigger bully comes and takes the bully phone that guy starts screaming for the world police!! Laughable, right?


Yeah, they already did nationalize what they can, the only difference is that
- no sane people store assets in Russia's bank
- even russian allies store they financial assets in Eu and US banks as they know their current banking system sucks!


Still chewing khat all day to feed your delusions? How's that inflation in Iran doing?

I think it is too soon to speculate about a "significant crash" of US dollar but it is a possibility.

What is certain and we can analyze these days is the dedollarisation. Basically as US regime acts like a dictator on the global scene, more and more countries start thinking about distancing themselves from United States and the dollar. We've already seen this speed up over the past 2 years.

Each time US regime makes more stupid decisions, it pushes more countries into doing "dedollarisation". For example when US sanctioned Russia and seized a lot of their assets, forced businesses to leave the country, etc. many countries started thinking about alternative payment systems.
Another major decision that significantly increased the speed of dedollarisation was the US regime's support of genocide that is still ongoing in Palestine.

This is a process that started many years ago, maybe we could place the start in 2008 which we also have Bitcoin creation that is another form of dedollarisation. It has been slow up until early 2020-2021 and so far in the past 2-3 years it has been speeding up.

Keep in mind that the US national debt is also increasing at an unprecedented rate. They are literally printing trillions in a matter of 2-3 months!
US dollar will continue weakening in the future but a significant crash still requires some additional factors that aren't there yet.

Firstly, it's not just the US, but an international tea that includes people from the EU, the US and Ukraine. Secondly, it was just a recent discussion about the prospects of such a decision, but the implementation is still considered challenging, and the decision hasn't been made yet. More importantly, I don't think it will impact the USD's value and/or stability because that money won't be released into the overall supply but will instead go directly to the Ukrainian fight against Russia (and only if the decision is actually made).
The USD has been very stable lately, and it's the world's global reserve currency, with a very strong dominance on that market (no other currencies are close to challenging it).

This action will just increase the tension between Russia and the West, because that money are mostly owned by rich Oligarchs. These people acquired that money, through their political connections.

The other side of the coin is this ==> That money could help Russia to buy more weapons and ammunition to fund the war against the Ukraine. (I would rather froze those accounts and seize the assets and then use that money to rebuild the Ukraine after the war)    

But at the same time, Russia also has some funds (money) belonging to the United States. And he said that if Biden decides to stop spending frozen money on the war in Ukraine, he will also start spending the money that he has at his disposal. I also wouldn’t want this to happen, I would like there to be an exchange of equivalent amounts, since money belonging to the state should and is located in it.
I would not like an escalation of the conflict, because this would greatly undermine trust, and I think that if such a step were taken, many countries would withdraw their assets from the United States.

US currency is one of the most stable currency around and will be difficult to crash like anticipated since bulk of international trades depends on it.
Removing 300b from Russian will not have any negative  impact on it as is just not that significant enough to crash it. This has been ongoing for 2 years now that they have been clapping down on Russian assets and yet US dollar keep appreciating.

1. the assets of the central bank of the terrorist country are being seized not FOR WAR, but to help Ukraine suffering from terrorist aggression from Russia.
2. This will have no effect on the dollar or the euro. And I really hope that these funds, until the end of the war will be managed by an international organization, so that Ukraine will receive a regular % of these funds, which will go to pay the suppliers of weapons.
The main funds can work for the economy of the countries assisting Ukraine.

What is the point of such a scheme?
- it will allow lending to western companies
- Ukraine will receive a good amount of money on a regular basis, which will go directly to the needs of the AFU, bypassing the pockets of our corrupt officials.
- after defeating the country of terrorists, the main amount of money will be credited to reparations, for the reconstruction of Ukraine, which again will be beneficial for the economy of the countries involved in this process.

Accordingly, there are no risks for the dollar or the euro - they will work exclusively for the economy.

The pro-Russian media and "experts" are now trying to promote the narrative that if assets are seized, no other country will keep its funds in the US and EU. All normal countries WILL keep their assets in the US and EU because it is stability and guarantees. Only criminal regimes that realize that they will be held accountable for their crimes will not keep their funds in the US and EU

It will lead to collapse, but all countries will develop a contingency plan so that if their assets are banned, they will have enough cash to control their people. Unfortunately, it will return the world to economic and financial blocs that prevent international trade and lead to a rise in the prices of goods, services and products. It is also not difficult for the United States to Printing $300 billion, given that its debts exceed $30 trillion.

The world financial system has never really been stable. But there are a hundred other factors involved in terms of foreign currency rates. The US has done countless of blunders in the past. It even remains good in committing the same at present, but the US dollar remains the strong and coveted currency.

It won't stay like this forever, of course, but this seizure issue right now isn't a reason for a crash. The issue of currency performance isn't just about trust. It's more of factors that drive a country's economy.

If Trump were the current president of the United States, I would expect him to do this madness and more, but I do not expect that Biden would take this crazy, ill-considered step.

“Seizing $300 billion worth of Russian Central Bank assets to finance the war in Ukraine” is the fatal mistake a Biden administration could make because it would destabilize the world even more horribly than it already does.

No one can guarantee what reactions Russia will take in response to this crazy step and what the political, economic, and even military repercussions of this decision will be.

They seized the money since last year, and so far Russia is not backing down despite of those pressure and in fact they become aggressive. If the US is doing this to protect the interest of the public and the Ukraine people, then this can be good but if its for their personal interest as well, this might bring us into a more deadly conflict that we can’t ever afford to happen. Russia is a very powerful country and they can stand for years with War, let’s just hope for a more peaceful resolution and hope that no more war will ever happen to any country.

This does not make any sense at all, and I doubt that Biden would actually dare to do this. This is an event that will ignite the entire world.
The assets confiscated in American banks are not owned by those banks and will remain the property of their owners until a decision is issued to unfreeze them.
The Biden administration cannot do this solely under the pretext of financing the conflict in Ukraine (which it is supposed to have no direct income from and is content to support Ukraine with its own money), and freezing deposits is the most that can be done due to clear reasons: First, Russia can confiscate the assets for the United States and its allies. Secondly, Russia can use these assets for the same purpose, which is to finance its war in Ukraine. Third is the repercussions of this on all depositors in American banks, who will immediately demand the withdrawal of their assets, which could lead to a comprehensive collapse of the financial system.

So let me get something straight, the funds have been seized since 2022 and most of the funds are in European banks, so what do they want to do with those seized funds? Return it to Russia? I don't understand how seizing the funds did not make other countries realize that " today is Russia, tomorrow it will be us" but using the seized funds how they see fit is what would cause an uprising against the West.

One way or the other those funds will be used for something else, it's not going back to Russia. Even if it won't be used to help Ukraine in the war against Russia, it would be used for something else.

Permit to ask. Is there a thing for the dollar and euro? Both currencies are having a significant increase in value and so many countries local currencies are being affected. The world financial system is not confined to the dollar or euro. We should look at the benefit of the action Joe Biden has taken to resolve the war between the Russians and Ukrainians and not focus on the effect it has on the financial system. The lives matter more, the moneary system can come later. Let there be peace!

As joe Biden administration is planning to sieze the Russian central bank asset worth 300B us dollar to fund the war in Ukraine, it may sound logical but it is a move that will not only distabilize the world financial system, but it will also make almost all none western countries around the world to shift away from the dollar, euros currencies as foreign reserves, because no body will see such an event taking place and not taking actions to preserve it asset.
This to me is a very wrong move that will kill the trust that existed between the west and global south.
Major countries around the world will definitely interpret it this way, today it's Russia, tomorrow it will be us, and that action will crash the value of dollar and euros around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eyes-using-300-russia-frozen-assets-help-ukraine-backfire-2023-12