Why this rally isn't a bubble yet...

600watt

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Quote from: kwukduck on January 11, 2017, 08:26:26 PM

Quote from: Tanic on January 11, 2017, 08:02:57 PM

It's not the bubble yet. But to many of bitcoin users today's fast drop can looks so. Bitcoin is just in the beginning of it's history and it's waited more rises and fails. I believe that bitcoin will rise back again soon.

I doubt it will ever rise this much again. We are at a 3 month low and people are more and more aware of Bitcoons inherent flaws and quickly looking for alternatives that DO provide what they promise.

Bitcoin is old tech. Smart investors and whales are moving assets into blockchain 2.0 technology. There is no coming back from that.

spot on. as always. Cheesy

whyrqa

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Quote from: talikila on January 17, 2017, 10:56:12 AM

No. This rally is not a bubble now. it must increase more than the year of 2013 (maybe it will hit 1,500$ - 2,000$ in this year.)
I'm trying hard to buy more bitcoins everytime the price is down deeply. it's a good chance to make more money in the future.

here I completely agree with you, because it already for several months places when Bitcoin dropped that one and a half thousand here I completely agree with you, because it already for several months places when Bitcoin dropped that one and a half thousand here I completely agree with you, because it already for several months, when Bitcoin went down that friend with half a step, I completely agree with you, because for several months already, when Bitcoin went down to $ 2,500, who before today th day Who bought at this price, became almost 3 times richer.

sgbett

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OK, maybe now we can start to talk about bubbles.

I'd originally been thinking we'd shoot up and correct from somewhere in the $9-$12k range.

Now I'm wondering if this is actually just the pre-top before the really big one (the ~$260 in April '13, that came before the big $1260 top in 2014) per this post

I'd got the correction there in the 3-10k range but looking at the way this parabola is shaping up it could be anywhere in the $10-$25k range (yes they are broad ranges, i'm not trying to trade this thing! Remember I sold all mine for that cheap knock off bitcoin Wink

something about some white paper and incentives, but i digress... )

So lets say it corrects at 15 down to somewhere like $3k (there looks to have been a lot of action around that price point when you look at volume).

Then we are looking at the real run-up, on that old chart id said 10-500k, I'd give a minimum of 60k now though.

All of which is dependant on BTC remaining the dominant crypto in the space.

GL folks.

Disclaimer: Technically I still have some bitcoin exposure in my pension through an ETF, significantly less than I used to. Gradually trading it for the equivalent ETH tracker as there isn't one for BCH yet.

talikila

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No. This rally is not a bubble now. it must increase more than the year of 2013 (maybe it will hit 1,500$ - 2,000$ in this year.)
I'm trying hard to buy more bitcoins everytime the price is down deeply. it's a good chance to make more money in the future.

Tmdz

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Quote from: lumeire on January 17, 2017, 10:12:52 AM

Seeing how fast it recovered from sub-$800, it could either be a trap or this is now the new established baseline. I would like to believe it's the latter though.

My instinct told me to keep the gains and move money to usd and see what happens.

Sharp upward moves like this are easy to reverse, Chinese new year is coming which is possible they will safeguard their increases then go party.

Price probably won't rise much more, but that's not off the table. If it declines then I get to keep my gains and increase btc holding for the next bull run. IMO 8% gain is pretty nice and it seems there is bigger risk to loose that gain than gain more.

lumeire

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Seeing how fast it recovered from sub-$800, it could either be a trap or this is now the new established baseline. I would like to believe it's the latter though.

maku

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on January 17, 2017, 07:00:54 AM

If a whale dump happens today, then it seems like someone is defermined to keep the price down, then I don't see 4 figures happening again in the near future Sad

Whale dumps that happned 2 weeks ago was the result of FUD, chinese traded were convinced that exchange regulations will be tougher, to the point of possible bitcoin ban.
Nothing like this happened, exchanges were warned, promised to use AML/KYC policies and that was it. I don't see a reason for any long position liquidation now.

NUFCrichard

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$880 is a nice recovery price today. It will be interesting to see what happens from here.
Taking the bubble out of the equation, the price is about back on the upwards trend curve, so could well move up like it was before Christmas.

If a whale dump happens today, then it seems like someone is defermined to keep the price down, then I don't see 4 figures happening again in the near future Sad

lottery248

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beware of your keys.

Quote from: hgmichna on January 05, 2017, 06:44:48 AM

Google does not work in China, but almost all the trading volume is in China.

because the main trading websites in china would charge the people upon the deposits instead of exchanging period, you can see the billions of volume are excluded for probable liquid volume. Huh

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: sgbett on January 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM

Quote from: MatDerKater on January 05, 2017, 06:49:50 AM

Quote from: ROT13 on January 05, 2017, 06:41:30 AM

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted. Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

Just look at USD exchange volume. There is no interest in Bitcoin compared with before.

I think its shaping up a bit like oct 2013, volume is comparable factoring in organic growth.

If I was an EW guy id say this looks like the first wave up. (its had its own mini 5 count).

Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.

Then starts wave 3 where we hit maybe 2x all time high. Followed by another pullback

Then we'll see the vertical of this rally 5-10k?

Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, so wouldnt be surprised if it takes 6-12 months.

The shakeout to ~800 will be an epic beartrap imho.

The spartans will of course HODL Wink

Impressive prediction, holding up nicely so far!

hgmichna

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Please remind me, where do these "$560k" come from?

600watt

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the day will come and we will all recognize that sgbett has been right all along.

if 560k ever come true i will buy a brewery and invite him for some beer. make that a vineyard if he happens to prefer wine. Cool

tabnloz

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Quote

After the massive Bitfinex scam, managers of serious capital, even capital set aside for high risk ventures, realise that they cannot take the risk of trading Bitcoin,

Most managers of serious capital would have known this way before finex was hacked. How many exchanges would actually pass muster when taken the the board of a big investment company? I suppose this is the reason why so many people crave the ETF. If indeed there is serious money looking to get in, I guess its OTC, not through an exchange.

Quote

Both AMD and NVidia for example have outperformed Bitcoin in the past year. The gains to be had in Bitcoin just aren't that special anymore to serious high risk traders.

I thought it would be hard to bust through the $266 barrier. Many before that thought it would never pierce $100, $50, $32.

Clearly no one knows. I know I am not smart enough, but I also know that my downside is defined and my upside has massive potential.

Leave out any personal biases & anger and imagine Bitcoin in a magic scenario where it is a major success. A place where you think 'holy shit, I was completely fucking wrong on this one' Eg, somehow takes 1% of gold, 1% of remittances or something similar.

95% chance it never does but the risk/reward is certainly worth it when you know your losses are limited (and you are young enough to earn the loss back relatively quickly).

Huge Black Woman

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Lordy! As ahm lookin' at the price rite now, we at $840, which ain't bad. We gettin' back ta where we was, slowly butt shirley. When you all expect ta git ta $1200 agin? I say inna month o' so. I'mma hodlin onta evverthan I gots. I'mma gonna log my ass up tomorra, den I'm gonna be earnin' mo' money!!!!

maker88

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Quote from: kwukduck on January 12, 2017, 09:20:33 AM

Quote from: maker88 on January 11, 2017, 09:25:07 PM

Lol and then theres this moron^

Sure call me a moron when you run out of arguments.
Still waiting for valid arguments why bitcoin is so great compared to crypto 2.0

its known. its being adopted. it has any market cap at all. whatever crypto 2.0 youre talking about is its a totally unknown thing to pretty much everyone in the entire world, except people who are way too into tech. bitcoin on the other hand, is pretty much a house hold word at this point. theres a whole bunch of reasons. another reason is you dont like it, and have never been correct, ever, so thats a pretty good contrarian indicator.

kwukduck

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Quote from: maker88 on January 11, 2017, 09:25:07 PM

Lol and then theres this moron^

Sure call me a moron when you run out of arguments.
Still waiting for valid arguments why bitcoin is so great compared to crypto 2.0

maker88

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Lol and then theres this moron^

kwukduck

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Quote from: Tanic on January 11, 2017, 08:02:57 PM

It's not the bubble yet. But to many of bitcoin users today's fast drop can looks so. Bitcoin is just in the beginning of it's history and it's waited more rises and fails. I believe that bitcoin will rise back again soon.

I doubt it will ever rise this much again. We are at a 3 month low and people are more and more aware of Bitcoons inherent flaws and quickly looking for alternatives that DO provide what they promise.

Bitcoin is old tech. Smart investors and whales are moving assets into blockchain 2.0 technology. There is no coming back from that.

Tanic

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It's not the bubble yet. But to many of bitcoin users today's fast drop can looks so. Bitcoin is just in the beginning of it's history and it's waited more rises and fails. I believe that bitcoin will rise back again soon.

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

I like these fundamental analysis posts. We've had a nice correction or crash, like you want to call it, but fundamentals continue to be positive. On the Google Trends chart, you can see that long-term the interest is growing, but slowly.

Another non-price charts I would use to make long term predictions are the following:

Transactions per second

Transaction fees in USD - with a 900% growth in 2016, it shows that people are willing to pay for transactions, so they are actually using BTC and not only spamming.

It would be nice to see all charts together in one pic - price, search volume and transaction volume Grin

rogerwilco

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Quote from: sgbett on January 11, 2017, 03:42:10 PM

Quote from: rogerwilco on January 11, 2017, 09:16:54 AM

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

sig checks out!

What? I don't understand.

sgbett

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Quote from: rogerwilco on January 11, 2017, 09:16:54 AM

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

sig checks out!

ft73

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Quote from: rogerwilco on January 11, 2017, 09:16:54 AM

The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

Bubble popping and back to normal.
Usual stuff.

rogerwilco

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The entire rally is gone, with the downswing appearing stronger than the upswing.

How and why is this going to hold again?

hgmichna

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Quote from: sgbett on January 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM

…
Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.
…
The shakeout to ~800 will be an epic beartrap imho.

The spartans will of course HODL Wink

That was prescient!

Perhaps we should just forget the last 24 days, because if you take them out, everything looks nice again. The price gently rises.

sgbett

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Quote from: sgbett on January 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM

Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.

I think thats the only prediction I've made for a while now.

Lets see if it holds up now!

sgbett

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well that escalated quickly! Cheesy

ROT13

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11/16/2013 - 11/20/2013

sgbett

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Quote from: hgmichna on January 05, 2017, 07:48:39 AM

Quote from: sgbett on January 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM

… Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, …

Since each "bubble's" price was later nicely confirmed and surpassed, one could argue that those were not bubbles, but just prescient price movements.

In other words, as long as the price keeps rising, only the last bubble is genuine. (Nothing lasts forever.)

QFT!

hgmichna

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Quote from: sgbett on January 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM

… Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, …

Since each "bubble's" price was later nicely confirmed and surpassed, one could argue that those were not bubbles, but just prescient price movements.

In other words, as long as the price keeps rising, only the last bubble is genuine. (Nothing lasts forever.)

ROT13

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Yes I think we are due for a correction shortly then another leg up.

Personally I'm sceptical about anything greater than 2k, or even 1.4.

sgbett

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Quote from: MatDerKater on January 05, 2017, 06:49:50 AM

Quote from: ROT13 on January 05, 2017, 06:41:30 AM

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted. Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

Just look at USD exchange volume. There is no interest in Bitcoin compared with before.

I think its shaping up a bit like oct 2013, volume is comparable factoring in organic growth.

If I was an EW guy id say this looks like the first wave up. (its had its own mini 5 count).

Reckon we are due for a correction - possible retest the 780-800 that we bounced off in june and then broke through in october.

Then starts wave 3 where we hit maybe 2x all time high. Followed by another pullback

Then we'll see the vertical of this rally 5-10k?

Each bubble has played out over a longer timescale than the last, so wouldnt be surprised if it takes 6-12 months.

The shakeout to ~800 will be an epic beartrap imho.

The spartans will of course HODL Wink

1Referee

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Quote from: hgmichna on January 05, 2017, 06:44:48 AM

Google does not work in China, but almost all the trading volume is in China.

Chinese exchanges are the absolute leaders when it comes to their trading volumes. However, it's not only Chinese people making use of BTC/CNY trading. There are plenty of very wealthy individuals operating from China, but where they actually reside in a different country. Chinese exchanges lends themselves perfectly for high speed trading, which attracts people with very deep pockets from all around the world. Especially when exchanges like BTCC allow people to trade without any fees. It allows large players to benefit from even the slightest price changes, where it results in massive profits.

ROT13

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Quote from: ROT13 on January 05, 2017, 06:41:30 AM

Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

MatDerKater

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Quote from: ROT13 on January 05, 2017, 06:41:30 AM

Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted. Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

Just look at USD exchange volume. There is no interest in Bitcoin compared with before.

After the massive Bitfinex scam, managers of serious capital, even capital set aside for high risk ventures, realise that they cannot take the risk of trading Bitcoin, when the exchanges can rob their customers with apparent impunity. The profit margins available in Bitcoin these days just don't warrant the huge systemic risks involved.

Both AMD and NVidia for example have outperformed Bitcoin in the past year. The gains to be had in Bitcoin just aren't that special anymore to serious high risk traders. This pump is entirely to do with China, the land of fake iphones, fake cars, fake food, and no doubt, fake Bitcoin volume.

hgmichna

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Google does not work in China, but almost all the trading volume is in China.

ROT13

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Good post, the media coverage has indeed been relatively muted. Bodes well for a significant upside still to be seen.

sgbett

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overlaid on price action...

sgbett

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The price has broken the ATH (are nearly has, depending on your p.o.v) but google trends is showing search interest only just starting to bubble up - apparently driven by Africa and eastern Europe.

https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore?q=bitcoin

So if this hype cycle plays out like the others we're (once again) still at the "early adopter" phase for this particular bubble. Will this time be the vertical on the s-curve of adoption? I'd say 50/50 this time round.

$560k folks. Never Forget.

Topic: Why this rally isn't a bubble yet... (Read 2104 times)