Topic: Why was this recent downturn not surprising? (Read 650 times)

Simply a matter of time, The high price is unsustainable at the current price the bitcoin market will need ~$20 million in new investment per day simply to pay off the miners. That price does not include the speculators who bought at 13k and 12k who will be wanting to sell if the price doesn't reach 20k tomorrow/ Monday.

I publish cash flow information so that others can see what I see and use their own judgement on where the market is going and how they want to invest or divest. You can find sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

This original post was me pointing out how hash rate could fluctuations could be linked to short interest. If you are wondering the short interest is the highest it has been (in dollar value) ever on bitfinex. You can find short information here:

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusdshorts

If you would like to be this aware and confident about the bitcoin market, please consider utilizing accurate and true information.

Much love and I wish you much profit!

Aaron

In general all this time we keep rising. If you see the whole picture there is not any downturn.
We just experienced a small correction this week but still Bitcoin price is still going up.

My clients get to see my actual actions on my public portfolio. My portfolio serves as a demonstration presenting best trading practices. You can see a sample portfolio here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

To answer your question, I didn't begin my short until $9300 and I continued it up until 10,800. I added another one yesterday at 12.3. Only my clients know the current creation cost as I will be short to around 30% above that.

My risk was actually quite small on this. When you know the mechanics of bitcoin as well as the creation cost you are aware of the risk in all your actions. I don't have my head in the clouds dreaming about 50k btc. I know how the market works. I share that knowledge with my clients.

The price continues to fall, and overtime the numbers are proven right,

Aaron

you were short in the $8000s according to your other posts. are you still holding the same shorts? you're willing to risk several hundred % losses (presumably with leverage on top) on this trade?

what is your take profit target, if you don't mind me asking? $800 or something crazy like that? you must think we're going to sub-$1000 levels to justify this sort of risk, assuming you have a proper risk vs reward ratio.

 After the btc price had bounced ultimately, it doesn't have much effect to long term hodlers who've been following the trend since last 2018. That doesn't surprise us due to this trend usually happened a year ago and from 2017 until early 2018, before btc went to the top price this scenario still went the same.

It is not something to worry about because this current price is unsustainable for any amount of time and will continually take hits. I don't have to worry, but the poor suckers who bought at 13k have to worry a lot.

I don't worry because I have data and risk analysis. I never panic because I know the risk. This massive random price manipulation up 2 days ago tested my risk limits, but I designed my short to be able to withstand a squeeze up to 23k (which is highly doubtful would happen).

I know why the price dropped from $6400 to $4086 due to knowing the creation cost, and understanding how the bitcoin market works.

I offer this information for everyone to know here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Please take a look, it is easy to understand your risk when you know the creation cost.

Aaron

P.S. I really just warn people about making high risk plays. Generally speaking it is not a good idea to play in the high risk pool. Unless you know something for a fact, then it isn't high risk it is utilizing insider information.

A drop from $12,850 USD to $10,800 USD is not something to worry. Its almost as normal as Bitcoins daily behavior. We have seen a big drop already in the past. Last November 2018 the price of Bitcoin dropped 36% from $6,399 USD to $4,086 USD in just a matter of days so a 15% drop is very much normal and not a reason to panic and sell everything that you have.

This guy want to continue to troll me so I am bumping this back up.

Aaron

No need to cuss. It is hardly embarrassing. I need to claim my advantage before an impending crash. So I was a week early, what do you want from me. It was going to happen soon due to the numbers that I and my clients see.

I needed to say something and get a conversation started. Everyone who commented was high on emotions and used ZERO data to refute me. I just had to wait till my prediction came true. These high prices are unsustainable due to the very nature of bitcoin. I know this and my clients know this.

I try to help people avoid buying at 13k, because what are you actually buying?

Use my site and me to understand what bitcoin actually is. I've been in this game for 6 years. I have seen my fair share of bubbles lol

Aaron

So if you are so great at this, why was your analysis so GD far off? this thread is an embarassing fail, not sure why you still return to it.
Even at the time you posted it nobody knew wtf downturn you were talking about. Find another hobby or stick around, but either way stop spewing your worthless opinions here - you embarass yourself with your stupidity.

I use data and numbers to understand how financial markets work. What do you use? dreams and wonderment? fear?

Definitely no numbers if you think this price is sustainable. My clients understood this well ahead of time, my clients are getting ready to make excellent buys at the bottom. Not the imaginary bottom of your feelings, but the real financial bottom of the market as spoken by data and numbers.

Hope you aren't too mad my friend, but this is how bitcoin works.

Aaron

The only lesson to be learned is how to properly short, which you can learn on my website as a client. My average short is at around ~10K (layered shorts). I reserved enough cash to be safe until btc hit $23K to avoid the squeeze. With bitcoin now at 12k from its peak at 13.8k, I'm 20% away from being profitable on this short, and in bitcoin with 50% up weeks, I don't think it is too crazy to expect a pretty severe correction.

Check out my site, and know your risk:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Aaron

You are completely clueless on bitcoin price correlation to incoming money. Completely. Clueless.
Why don't you go find another forum to share your opinions - maybe a gaming or knitting forum?

It is not about perception. It is about reality. @ $9300 when I wrote this originally bitcoin would need 16.7 million dollars of new investment/ day. That was unsustainable. Currently at ~13k it is EVEN more unsustainable. If you want to understand risk and avoid risky buys consider becoming a client. There is no need for emotion in investing:

https://www.amsinger.org

Pure calculations are much better,

Aaron

I didn't start my short until ~9.3 with my average around 10k. I am still much short due to the fact that at 13,700 the bitcoin market will need $23.4 million/day to support that price, and quite frankly that is unfeasible long term.

Become a subscriber if you want to watch me "get rekt", my personal portfolio is public to my clients

https://www.amsinger.org

I'm keeping this post up so that I can promote the idea after the market does its proper correction.

Aaron

Only morons who don't keep sufficient cash reserves "get REKT" lol

The OP seems he doesn't really know the nature of bitcoin and he's doing his analysis wrongly. Now, what would be his analysis that we already touched the $11k-mark of bitcoin? Will his perception be totally different as compared from the time he created this post? But anyway, this will serve a good lesson for him in terms of dealing with cryptocurrency especially bitcoin.

Price at time of OP: $9,078
Price high today (so far): $11,284
OP's last post: June 19, 2019

REKT

There's a lesson to be learned here.....don't call the top based on the price dipping a few %. That usually doesn't end well.

Those who successfully peddle paid services usually do this instead: make private calls using timestamps and screenshots, then post the successful ones after the fact. The OP couldn't even get that right.

The downfall seems to be a part now of the daily life of most investors and traders, having that much experiences allowed them to see this as a normal
cycle so only those who are in need or those who already seen enough will sell out, but for those who are using spare money it's best to keep your coin
on hold and wait for another cycle to see much higher value of your investment.

downtrend and correction are i think the same because both tackles price decline  but i dont think that this gives a reason for people to sell .

people will sell if they trully need the cash and they wouldnt really care if what is the status of the market  but the rest will sell if they see that the market is pumping hard .

the recent downturn is not surprising at all because this does happen at all times  . people are already used to it   .whats more surprising is the recent pump of bitcoin  .

Its not a downtrent,its just correction made panic sellers to sell but now the prices are unstoppable again.

I think the OP got REKT and is already out of the game. He started selling before $8K.

Since you posted this, price has only risen. We just hit $9,800. Have you reassessed and changed your position, or are you doubling down and predicting more downside?

What went wrong with your "cash flow monitoring" and why didn't it see this move coming?

actually this topic has one purpose and that is starter trying to sell his services which are kind of a signal selling service, seemingly analyzing the market but in reality he is just making random stuff up and sells it to whomever is foolish enough to pay him for it

What recent downturn? I do not understand, bitcoin literally went from 3.2k to 9.1k+ right now and you are talking about bitcoin recent downturn. If you mean from 20k to 3k then you might be right but even that is now just a 50% drop and if you were smart enough to buy while going down you must have a lot less dollar cost average than just 20k, you can have bought under 4k and that would have dropped your average down a lot or you could have bought anywhere under 9k and your averages would have been lower.

All you have to do right now is take a look at the limits of bitcoin and where it can reach to understand that there is no reason to consider any drop as downturn since it would recover in no time if you use your money wisely to drop the averages down to a lower number.

You haven't explained how your "cash flow analysis" works so people are rightfully skeptical. You're basically just touting your paid subscription without providing any evidence you know what you're talking about or that your signals perform well.

Meanwhile, price has only fallen 1.5% despite your proclamations of a major crash incoming. So again, people are rightfully skeptical.

It's not really surprising considering that we have been in the greens for a long time. Any drop in the price will be a normal market reaction and should be expected given the range of the rise we have had for the last couple of months. Sans the promotion of your service and the factors you have mentioned, a correction is a necessary thing to occur before any substantial gains can be seen. Heck, even back to $7000 or $6000 is still bearable for us to handle right now.

I also don't see any downturn, the price is still above $9k as of this writing, unless I'm looking at a different chart as the OP.

I'm not expert in hash rate or what's not, but it seems we are making things complicated here. I mean let the market do the talking and not some data or interpolation and thinks that we can predict where the price will be going in the future.

Most people are just pointing out "what downturn?" And they are correct.

After reaching a new 2019 high in the 9400s it has consolidated at around 9000 - 9100. Not exactly a downturn, ok not even close to a downturn. Just a normal pullback that, most weeks out of the year you could predict that happening and be right. A downturn would be if it fell to 8000, not dropping a few percent. This isn't the stock market, dropping a few percent is just weekly volatility, sometimes even daily volatility.

A lot of negative reactions for bringing up cash flow analysis in crypto. I am not surprised, but it is always amazing.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but at least my views are backed by data and actual analysis, not feelings and emotions. 

Thank you!

Aaron

So this is actually promotion of your paid service, and I would have no objection to that if this is posted in proper board. If you sell / offer something we have Marketplace for that.


I invest some money at $3000 few months ago, just by using my brain - can you calculate how much up is that?


Take some medicine if you feel sick, some people say it will go up to $1 million next year - that does not mean that we should believe them. I believe in healthy logic and some people who make long-term predictions (2-4 years), and have proven themselves as credible for crypto community.

After a couple of years in cryptocurrencies uptrends and downtrends stop to be a surprise, it just a natural thing, something that happens wheater we like it or not. To longterm holders, these up and down trends are not so important, for short and mid-term traders this is the way for earning money.
I hold my bitcoins! I trade with altcoins, nothing can surprise me. Price can skyrocket or drop by 80% in days, so when you day trade don`t do that will all your money and you will be safe.

If you have to protect fiat values vs time spans any downwards dip would cause caution and accounted a bit higher in the risk factor.

Looking at the btc hash rates it all went up on the 30 90 and 180 days overview.

Everyone is an "expert" during a bull run. Plus be careful, these "fund managers" might actually be scammers. I'm not saying that the OP is one, I'm saying newbies beware. Some "experts" want to separate you from your Bitcoins.

He's just in BTC recently, thats the only explanation for this topic

We all have our starting date.....

What downturn? And why would a downturn/correction be surprising even if it happened now after all this months of rising? The title doesn't make any sense.

The movement is pretty normal that is why it is very volatile to simply make an assumption base on previous movements Because there are no extreme change with the price, This is just a normal Dip anything is possible with bitcoin there is no big drama what so ever, And it is not yet surprising indeed, This Bull Run will continue and rocking like the waves of the ocean.

I did not really know what he is saying in the op about downturn and he presented it as if something that has happened before. Bitcoin has not lose much that we can call corrections! talk more of the down turn. I believe that traders are the one influencing the market currently and not miners. Bitcoin is growing general and I don’t see any downturn in view except you are referring to the future.

I'm not sure your clients would feel the same confidence in your abilities or experience if they read that post and knew who you were.

And what downturn are we talking about? A day after hitting a new high and we're still above 9k.

What's that again they say about a little knowledge? We're all somewhat knowledgeable but in the speculatory price market, your guess is as good or as bad as mine.

sigh.....another noob who thinks future price can be extrapolated from hash rate and miner costs. your premise defies logic and the entire design of the system. hash rate follows price, not the other way around. nobody gives a shit what miners pay, and miners represent a smaller and smaller share of total supply everyday.


at least we can judge TA on its face. you have zero evidence for what you're promising. don't be surprised if no one takes you seriously here. old timers know that you're selling snake oil.

i look forward to revisiting this thread in a few weeks.


seriously. price dipped 5%. it already retraced 50% in the last few hours. he's acting like the price was just cut in half.

Downturn?

You mean the small dip we’re currently experiencing. Even a drop to 8k from here would be normal Bitcoin behaviour.

I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop .

I protect my clients, so I will not disclose any information that they paid for. But I will say that it came from understanding the basic fundamentals of how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work. Cash flow monitoring is how any modern company is valued. I provide that for my clients using hard data.

I plan on telling them my expected exit price, but only after I factor in the degree of hash rate drops correlated with the efficiency of previous bitcoin mining machines. I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales). I do the work.

If you are able to do this, good luck to you! But I do the work for my clients, and if you want someone working hard for you are welcome to join my crypto family and get the following:

1. Risk analysis for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
2. Coin creation costs for BTC , BCH, ETH, and LTC.
3. Advanced data based research covering how the fundamental price floor affects the spot price Feb 7 Analysis
4. Actively managed portfolio where you see my daily trades and risk percentages. I am currently 2.11% up from June 2 off of LTC and BTC actions.
5. Weekly summary of fundamental actions and analysis.
6. Continuous updates and improvements that center on what YOU need to understand how crypto actually works.
7. Access to me for council and coaching on your strategy.

If you want to keep following people that draw lines from random points and feed you nonsense like Fibonacci numbers be my guest, enjoy swimming with the fish. Any moron can draw a line between point A and point B and make it fit any agenda. Enjoy being told what just happened and being led into traps by unknowledgeable people making false correlations.

If you want to watch what the whales are doing I am here to help. This is just the beginning of the fall.

Please look at my open analysis and work, it is worth your time:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis
https://www.amsinger.org/price-floor-in-action

I hope you see the true value of this.

Aaron

P.S. If you don't follow this enjoy buying the highs and selling the lows. It makes me sick how people are saying bitcoin is going to $100k. They care nothing for your safety and risk exposure. They only care about FOMO and hype.