Topic: Will 2021 become the year of the Lightning Network? (Read 681 times)

It's quite disappointing to see declined interest in the Lightning Network these days. I believe that the complexity of Bitcoin's second-layer scalability solution greatly limits its level of mainstream adoption. If it was easy enough to send/receive micropayments through the Lightning Network, it would've skyrocketed by now. We're now in the beginning of 2021, but people are still focused on using the main Bitcoin blockchain for everyday payments. Others are into the "ETH hype" as new "De-Fi" platforms emerge like there's no tomorrow. The Lightning Network is out of the spotlight as people have been using other coins to save off fees and reduce waiting times. Believe me, it's much easier to use an altcoin than the Lightning Network for mainstream transactions. As long as the LN has its limitations, it won't be going anywhere.

Nonetheless, who knows what 2021 will bring? The Lightning Network's level of success will depend on how far developers are willing to go in order to make it as user-friendly and reliable as possible. Marketing/promotion efforts needs to be improved if the community wants the LN to go somewhere. No matter if the Lightning Network succeeds or fails, Bitcoin will survive for a long time. Just my thoughts

I think this is where litecoin plays a massive role. Usage of BTC and LTC as a combination can be very beneficial for the industry.

Let's hope so. It's getting so expensive to move bitcoin around

I think Bitcoin requires the Lightning Network to run optimally this year, so that the adoption process can run even faster. And Bitcoin is not only
a digital asset, but the main purpose of Bitcoin being created as a currency can be realized well. Because nowadays many people only use Bitcoin
as a digital asset, while Bitcoin as a payment method is not going well.

So I really hope this year Bitcoin can really maximize using the Lightning Network to solve the problem of slow and very expensive Bitcoin transaction
fees. So we can really experience using the Bitcoin payment method well.

I also don't think it's LN's year.
I have not heard of any official announcements.
I have honestly had a hard time understanding how it works. Download the BlueWallet app I had to put it aside because I didn't give it enough time to know how it works.
I'll have time to take a look at it.

Doing a search I found a tweet from Cobra the owner of bitcoin.org. and he says the following:


We bitcoin users know the difficulties we have regarding scalability, fees, security and others. Now that micropayments could become a hit in bitcoin, we still need convenient apps.
Meanwhile bitcoin is seen as a store of value.

Crypto dont need this.
Bitcoin is digital Gold not the payment Method.

In future we will use for payment stable coins.
So there is no need for the btc lightning Network.
Its been said the btc is digital gold just.

Re-read what I said.

Also your "evidence" that I'm wrong is there are 100k full bitcoin nodes running?? That's evidence against your argument, not mine. There are a hell of a lot more than 100k bitcoin users, but only 100k full nodes apparently. People who run full nodes in Bitcoin will always remain a small percentage. Many million of people hold their bitcoin on exchanges or other custodial services. Few people, comparatively, are running their own node.

People who run their own LN node will always remain a small percentage. Enthusiasts will run their own LN node. But most people aren't going to want to deal with the technical aspects of running a LN node. If one day a billion people use LN, it'll probably be a few million people running their own nodes, and then a network of companies like banks, Fintech companies, etc running nodes in which they each hold bitcoin for tens of millions of people. Enthusiasts running their own equipment is ALWAYS a small percentage of people , no matter what you are talking about. How many people who own cars fix their own cars? How many people who own desktops build their own machines, or people who own computers in general  install Linux are do shit with that as compared to the number of people who use Mac or Windows? How many people who own a house do their own repairs and upgrades? Exactly. Just like everything else, the number of people who do the technical thing (running their own LN node) will be a small percentage of the total number of people using LN - if it ever takes off.

When Venmo, Paypal, banks, Square, Amazon and other major online retailers, etc have LN nodes out of a desire to improve and cut costs on their use of Bitcoin, and they switch all their many millions of Bitcoin users over to LN automatically behind the scenes, that is when you will see LN take off. Until then it's just going to be the small percentage of enthusiasts who are using LN.

Nothing wrong with holding your savings securely in cold storage but then having your spending bitcoin available for easy use without technical hassle by having it in your bank or Fintech company that uses LN to make your purchases.

Although, of course as we have seen merchants don't want bitcoin because they need to get the exact price they sell an item for. So when you spend Bitcoin is goes through an exchange provider that takes the bitcoin and sends the merchant dollars or whatever local currency. Most likely we'll end up with this same thing but just on LN, though it is harder on LN because LN only works when coins are being sent all around to due channels needing to be funded and whatnot. So LN may end up just being used for sending bitcoin directly like to and from exchanges and with venmo-like apps, and less so for actual purchasing items. Either way, what I originally said stands, enthusiasts running their own LN nodes will never make LN go mainstream, by the very fact that only enthusiasts will be doing this.

Sadly, the Lightning Network's level of mainstream adoption is extremely low. Most merchants and businesses still use the main Bitcoin blockchain despite being extremely slow and expensive to use. With the vast number of altcoins on the market right now, I don't see a reason why anyone will do the switch to the LN in the first place. Everything could stay the same during the course of 2021. I believe that things could change in the future, according to the Lightning Network's level of development and innovation. Once user experience is improved, and most issues are "patched up", then demand for Bitcoin's off-chain scalability solution (LN) will increase at a fast pace. Development progress for the Lightning Network is slow, but this will ensure security/stability/reliability in the long run.

Nonetheless, no one knows what the future holds for the Lightning Network. No matter what happens with the off-chain scaling solution, Bitcoin will carry on as usual. It's just an experiment with the hopes of bringing Bitcoin to the masses. If it fails, then people can simply choose an altcoin like Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin for cheaper fees and faster transaction processing times. Decentralization and censorship-resistance is all that matters in order to ensure Bitcoin remains as sound money for the world. Scaling Bitcoin is something optional than necessary in my own opinion. Just my thoughts

All your arguments are like saying "bitcoin will take off if centralized services start running full nodes and everyone else uses SPV clients or custodial wallets". There will always be many people who want the easy way and will sacrifice their own security and give up the control they had to use bitcoin, whether it is on second layer or otherwise. But at the same time there will also be a lot of people who would run full nodes (like the 100k existing nodes) and LN nodes all the same for both their own usage and to help others who don't run a full node to connect to them and use bitcoin that way.
Of course some of these full nodes (and LN nodes) are always going to be run by centralized services but they will always remain the small percentage.

This lightning network has actually been rumored to have existed since 2018 but it seems that it has not been realized until now. This will help small coin owners handle costs, so if this lightning network is successful it will certainly provide convenience and certainly low fees. I hope this lightning network will be successful

I think I never used the Lightning Network for something meaningful beside some small experiments. I don't see where to use it.

IMO nothing will change for LN in 2021. It's a good idea but still has a low adoption.

Bitmex has a page for Lightning network: https://txstats.com/dashboard/db/lightning-network?orgId=1&from=now-5y&to=now

So far, since the amazing run of bitcoin in 2020, the total channels fall but the total values on opened channels increase a little. Lightning network growth is in accumulation after the sudden rise since fourth quarter 2018 to first quarter of 2019. It is in almost sideway area on the chart.

In my opinion, if there is no other solution to scale up bitcoin blocksize bigger, or to reduce transaction fees, Lightning Network adoption will have more growth as it seems to be the only solution for bitcoiners and merchants.

Bitcoin has little need for transactions, the everyday coffee purchases. It's currently a speculative asset in the short-term. In the long-term, it's a Store of Value. Bitcoin, itself, cannot escape the SoV use-case. It's like trying to lift yourself from gravity. It doesn't work. The lack of need for the Lightning Network originates from Bitcoin's main chain and its economics. It's a fundamental problem. For several spikes of activities per year, it's difficult to justify using the Lightning Network. I wrote an article about this.

https://bitflate.org/post/2019/11/24/bitcoin-will-not-be-a-medium-of-exchange.html

The key to solve the Medium of Exchange use-case is inflation. Until then, Bitcoin remains a speculative asset and a Store of Value.

That's certainly true, mate. What kills Lightning Network's adoption in the mainstream world is its complexity. Opening/closing a channel, searching for LN nodes, etc, is all complicated process for the non-tech savvy person. It's why most people have remained on the main Bitcoin blockchain despite its high fees and slow transaction confirmation times. Those who're uncomfortable with Bitcoin's fees will prefer to use an alternative cryptocurrency like XRP or Stellar instead of the Lightning Network. Aside from the fact that the Lightning Network is complicated, not many merchants and businesses accept it as payment method. Most cryptocurrency exchanges don't have LNBTC listed, greatly limiting people's ability to trade their LNBTC to any other cryptocurrency of their choice. At least, the technology is there for anyone to use to their heart's content. Development for the LN is still ongoing, which gives us hope that someday it'll become mature for the mainstream world.

Nonetheless, 2021 holds many exciting things for crypto and Blockchain tech in general. People are becoming more aware of crypto as the pandemic takes the world by storm. As Bitcoin becomes "clogged" with transactions, developers will be forced to work faster and harder in order to ensure the blockchain remains scalable for the whole wide world to enjoy. The LN could experience substantial improvements in the coming months as interest spikes like never before. As long as there are people supporting the LN, nothing else matters. Just my thoughts

In my opinion, the Lightning Network is a technology that did not live up to expectations.  Why do I think so?  You don't need Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee or a pack of cigarettes.  This purchase can be made in other ways as well. 

Bitcoin is interesting as a deflationary decentralized asset.  It is very important that with bitcoins you can transfer large amounts of capital over long distances.  The world needs a new global reserve currency. 

Bitcoin could become this global reserve currency.

First of all, given how high the price currently is, the fees are not that bad. Last time (in 2017) the fees were well above $15, and that was a truly serious problem. Today I spent $7 for a $150 transaction, which is not great, but given how high the price is, it's not terrible either.
If more people start using the LN, I think I'd join eventually because I have nothing in principle against it. But I think that it's not user-friendly, and making it otherwise doesn't seem to be the team's priority.
I hope we'd see alternative projects with the same aim this year, though.

Total nodes increase but total channels decrease. The Lightning network capacity falls a little in BTC but increases a lot in USD and two lines tend to cross each other. With 3 parameters for Lightning Network, I see the growth is not on a hype trend but my hope is with the rise of bitcoin and rise of transaction fee in USD, Lightning network will be more considered by people and exchanges.

Exchanges begin to support Bech32 address that is a good move before the next one for Lightning Network. Binance support Bech32 since 24 Dec 2020

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-nodes
https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-channels
https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity

Binance has incorporated and enabled SegWit address into their exchange for deposit and withdrawal of bitcoin with a reduced fee link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-enables-segwit-support-for-bitcoin-deposits-as-adoption-grows I believed this is a step geared towards adoption of LN by the exchange while other reputable exchanges will follow-suit, the scalability issue of bitcoin will surely be addressed in due course once implemented bitcoin will serve as a reliable and trusted payment gateway and definitely more institutional adoption.

2021 will be the best era in the world digital age.Because the amount of transactions in the covid period is through this Bitcoin.Most of it has been through this captive world.

Last time I checked lightning was pushing people towards custodial wallets as a fix for the bad UX. If that's changed then maybe I'll reevaluate my position.

good to see rational minds do exist amungst the LN fangirls overpromising and not understanding

merit earned

Yes this is topic of interest for me and always had discussion regrading this with my crypto friend circle locally. However I believe that there are always two groupd who will be debating on this. For example, Investors Vs Normal user. In this case investor doesnt care about the fees because they are here for long term holding, trading or gambling for that instance and will be looking forward to keep the money for very long and increase the profits. They transact very less.

On the other hand for the normal user who just wanna grab the snacks from the local store and pay the bitcoins will be very much concerned about their transaction fees and wait time. So you have to worry based on which side you choose for now. 

It's the same year as before and LN it's not fully developed yet, there are lots of errors and trials that need to be done for some months. Lightning Network is one of the fundamentals of Bitcoin to make Satoshi dreams come true because when people will able to pay that fast and with low transaction fees, then the whole industry in the world will flock to put bitcoin as their means of payment.  right now, we are far from that to happen because of the current situation of LN but there will be lots of opportunities and we are not rushing it this year.

I actually think the best chance for the LN to take off is if centralized services start using it.

Running your own node and worrying about if you have enough liquidity on your node or in your channels to route txs or make a payment, and then having to load it up with more bitcoin through an onchain tx seems kinda of....not great user experience. I'm sure clever design of LN apps can make some of these headaches go away, but how many average consumers are going to want to run their own LN node, or even have any idea or interest in learning how to do that? Very few.

This means that if LN took off most people would just be using some centralized node run by some service anyway. And this is how I see LN taking off. I could totally see Paypal and crypto exchanges using LN once they feel it is fully safe and feature-complete enough to use. It makes more sense for Paypal to use LN to route transactions than to do it any other way. Sure then you don't "own" your bitcoin, but if you are using a centralized service like that then that's already the case. I could absolutely see a future where payment companies are the big LN nodes, along with a bunch of enthusiasts who run their own nodes, with LN txs being passed around instantly and nearly free between payment companies and users and other entities. It would be much more efficient than the legacy fiat system used now, allowing them to process transactions faster and cheaper than they currently do.

People will complain about this, but there is just no way I see LN take off if it's expected to just be a network of people running their own nodes. That will never happen, only enthusiasts will do that. LN will only grow once the big boys embrace it and switch over to it from legacy fiat digital money due to its great efficiency in improving their business. LN won't take off without this.

I do no think that 2021 be the year of the lightning network, we have still not solved everything and this we have to still wait for the time when we will have solutions for the same.

Plus I don't think that we do need lightning network anymore. Now a days the sites have started accepting funds even after one confirmation and it's more or so instant and thus I do believe things like that are going to happen more or so in the future.

Therefore the lightning network will become obsolete. These kind of payments and transfers are more or so very instant. At the same time I do believe that we might or might not solve the lightning network problems but we can have a more or so widespread adoption of segwit network.

We do have options for sure. We don't have to wait for the lightning network to become perfect though.
Things implemented in bitcoins ? It's perfect the way it is , we don't have to make the situation more complicated. Right now I do believe that the only problem would be how we would deal with quantum computers and the transfer fees.

Bitcoin does not need to be the be all end all for it and while the lightning network can perform multiple functions, the first mover would definitely be in Ethereum as we can see from the growth of De-Fi and related contracts from 1 Billion held in contracts to 16.75 Billion this year defiplulse.com
Oracles and Bitcoin integrated tokens may be the real competition to lightning as projects integrate and cross interact with one another.

https://defipulse.com/blog/2020-year-in-review/
https://defipulse.com/blog/introducing-bitcoin-at-work/

As others have mentioned in the thread lightning has 1100 BTC locked
https://defipulse.com/lightning-network
There is more Bitcoin on Ethereum networks than on Lightning and its been this way since March

After a few weeks of proximity, the overtaking has happened, the bitcoin locked on Ethereum thanks to DeFi projects have outnumbered those locked on Lightning Network.  
https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2020/03/12/defi-more-bitcoin-on-ethereum-than-on-lightning-network/

Now it's not even comparable 136000 BTC at time of posting compared to Lightning's paltry sum of 1100
https://defipulse.com/btc

That said competition is welcome and lightning does have a use case, it's just not necessary or essential to Bitcoins value at this point I think saying "How cute" is in order  
Ethereum is layer 2

I won't mind this being the year LN really takes off and becomes super easy to use. It's been a long time coming, really, but I'd really also like to see Segwit just get implemented by services who've just been too lazy to upgrade since 2017. If everyone went full native Segwit, we'd just see fees drop off a lot and blocks get more txs in. But yeah, Lightning in 2021 being mainstream, why not?

Yeah, agree with this. Back in 2017/2018 I would argue that the store of value / digital gold thesis of Bitcoin would only be borne out if it is also highly spendable. And while I absolutely believe its spendability (tx capacity) needs to be increased to keep fees from becoming exorbitant, it is clear now that Bitcoin's status as digital gold is not dependent on it becoming highly scalable and directly usable for making purchases.

Instead Bitcoin's use as a currency to buy things will be through third party centralized services like Paypal. This is because Paypal (and similar services) can hold a bunch of Bitcoin and just move around numbers in a database a bunch of times, only occasionally settling changes to the blockchain when it needs to, vastly cutting down the number of txs on the blockchain compared with how many txs are actually happening between users.

LN may one day grow to be used by a lot of people, but as of right now it only attracted early hardcore users. It's been stuck at about 1000 BTC capacity for almost two years out of its three years of existence. It would be great if it starts to grow again and becomes a major feature for Bitcoin, but if it doesn't Bitcoin will still maintain its status as digital gold and it will still become the reserve currency for the world.

2021 will definitely not be the year of the LN. If it can finally start to grow again that would be great, but the vast majority of crypto owners are not going to care about the LN in 2021. Paypal is going to be a much more popular scaling solution for Bitcoin in 2021 than the LN is. But in general, using bitcoin to store wealth is always going to be the more popular use case over spending it, because its monetary design literally encourages it and discourages spending.

There still needs to be a few more things implemented in Bitcoin itself before LN can really scale. I think that's what Square is waiting for, they probably want to be able to onboard all the cash app users into lightning when it's ready but right now it just wouldn't be possible.
Probably by the end of the year though.

I've got the above from wikipedia. As Bitcoin price rises people won't spend the same amount of BTC on fees because it is not economical. I believe the Bitcoin is very efficient, but it has some small problems here and there such as getting too congested from time to time, but it does not happen very often. Luckily we already have the Lighting Network to handle this issue.

I see OG Bitcoin and Bitcoin LN as a different thing.
despite what has been written on the whitepaper, the OG Bitcoin now more like a crypto asset.
meanwhile, Bitcoin LN trying to become a solution for people who want to use Bitcoin as a medium of digital transactions.
most people have bitcoin as a medium of investment, as a digital asset. that's why more people hold it rather than spend it.
since the hype leads bitcoin to be an asset, bitcoin LN will only have room for enthusiasts and experimental purposes only.
this is just my opinion.

You certainly have a valid point. As the supply is limited, people may only use it as store of value but still, it seems possible because we are in a bullrun where a lot of new investors are coming into the market. Certainly all of these will have an ending; someday the institute putting their money into bitcoin as treasury will certainly spread FUD and leave the market. Therefore, at the end of the day, you will be leaving with payments only I guess and that's what should it be IMO. I discovered it as ease method of payment; still using it as that.

I would love to that it will going to happen due to cheap and private transfer of bitcoins. However, exchanges are not using LN to transfer or exchange bitcoin. So, still we need to do it the traditional way of exchanging bitcoin. If only there will be these kind in exchanges then that would be better for fast, easy and reliable bitcoin exchange.

Sorry but no way that will work. People want that everything works easy and that it just works. As long it's a product or something that's used in daily life and they have a current product, people don' want to put effort and time into it. I don't think people went to academies for using services like PayPal or whatsapp, or how to use a mobile phone. People don't have time for that. Good teaching is when the brain uses an app or a service and after 2-5 mins you know how it works by heart, and you know it's better than the product you used before. That's why apps like PayPal are so successful.
Why should an average bitcoin user waste time and change? Besides the real problems like payment hub centralization, regulations and the thing in general with side chains of bitcoin controlled by for profit companies, its not user friendly and harder to understand and use.

I agree with the sentiments here, even those who have experienced in crypto sphere see Lightning Network as a good "alternative" because of bitcoin skyrocketing fees right now, however, even for them it's too "complicated" to use. It might take some time though to fully adopt LN for now.

But it's good that we have it right now, sort of "nice to have" technology, but I don't think it cornered the market yet, people still prefer the old and traditional way.

Most people probably have encountered the Lightening Network, it just isn't something that they know the benefits of, and the cons of the technology. I think its current status could probably be categorized into "buzzword" rather than anything that's understand universally.  

The ease of use, and documentation needs to be greatly improved for it to be adopted on a larger scale. Its too complicated of a technology to be adopted otherwise.


That's where your opinion might differ to others though. A lot of people are on the same page of Satoshi, that Bitcoin will be used a general alternative to fiat currencies, and isn't just used as a reserve currency. Its an ambitious thought, but personally I would agree to some extent. The current traditional money systems are not suitable for the long term, that is clear. However, I'm not entirely convinced Bitcoin is the solution either. Although, that's not saying I don't support Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin is the pioneer we needed to encourage people to think outside of the box, and while it might not be THE solution, it might be the one that started the process.

you have a valid argument here. right now, people are going into bitcoin, despite the fees involved. because most of them are here for potential long-term investment. not many of them are here because of its payment purposes. a lot of us are storing btc not because we can use it for our everyday expenses but for the hope that one day, our portfolio will gain more profit.
LN is somewhat unfamiliar path even to long-time crypto users. maybe because most exchanges as well as most merchants are not utilizing this network. this year is still not the year for LN. there's a lot to embark before we see massive adoption of LN.

It won't be the year of the lightning network. It will never be. Bitcoin is for the average person hard to understand. Since there are no good products on the market even for that problem. Lightning network makes this process even harder. It's even harder to understand on any point. The current LN user rate is very low. I don't know anybody who's using it, and I don't see why it should change.
The lightning network isn't a solution. It's just an excuse for not adjusting the block size.

Am I the only one who doesn't worry about the LN anymore? Bitcoin is succeeding as a store of value, if the LN is implemented and works, fine, but it seems to me that the institutions that are buying in mass are doing it as a store of value.

According to Gresham's law, people prefer to keep valuable currency, which is a store of value, and not use it for payments.

If bitcoin ends up succeeding in becoming the best reserve of value in the world, I don't care if people don't use it for small payments, which was Satoshi's original idea, but an idea often goes beyond what its creator conceived.

No, I wouldn't agree with OP, and I don't think Lightning Network will popular by this year. It seems there isn't much exchange adapting it where most of Bitcoin stored. Even see on the SegWit addresses, most peoples not using it since most exchanges now accept it, can't we save fees by using the SegWit address. But still, it wasn't much popular. Lightning Network is more complicated I think and it will take more long time to adapt. Many Bitcoin users even don't know what is Lightning Network and how works it. There should an online learning academy that will spread the word about it and teach the peoples. Otherwise, it would gain faith.

Lightning Networks may shine on 2021 depending on how the implementation and adaptation of various websites and wallets. As of now, only a few wallets implements Lightning Network on their platform and one of them is Electrum which is a famous bitcoin wallet. Once certain platforms adapted and used LN network, we can hear more information and knowledge regarding it. With the right direction, I can see LN be commonly used on 2021.

I expect major Gambling and Exchange Platforms be adapting Lightning Networks on their platform for a better and faster transaction inside and out.

Unless there is an enormous education campaign, 2021 will NOT be the year of the LN.

Most people are not aware of LN, not aware of how LN functions and how can they use it, benefits and so on.

I don't think it;s happening anytime soon although Electrum has implemented LN. Very few people are aware of what LN is and how it works and most of them are aware of based on article, information given. Only a little amount of users have tried it. Therefore, it will take time to be popular among everyone. Before that, it's more important to have acceptance of LN everywhere. People will only find it useful once it's accepted in everywhere and you know very few merchants accepting bitcoins have implemented LN and I'm sure most of them don't know what LN is; the same happened with the segwit, still not used by everyone.

As Bitcoin's fees skyrocket, more people will find themselves obliged to look for an economic alternative for sending cross-border payments. The price in Fiat (USD) relative to fees denominated in BTC, makes Bitcoin impractical as digital cash for micropayments. Buying food or other daily necessities directly with Bitcoin will no longer be economically viable for the average person.

Fortunately, the Lightning Network is under heavy development to become the default scalability layer for Bitcoin micropayments. While it's still experimental, the development team behind it has worked hard to make it as practical as possible for everyday people. Some security issues here and there need to be addressed though, for the Lightning Network to experience a huge boost in mainstream adoption. With Bitcoin's fees increasing towards unprecedented levels, it seems to me that 2021 will become the year of the Lightning Network. That is if Bitcoin's price in Fiat continues to rise all the way to the moon. Yet, it may still be early to tell given that the LN is still in its early days.

Thoughts?