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Topic: Will $7.20 be the 2012 high? (Read 6292 times)
Sorry came up wrong in search
SLAYED
Yeah I said it.
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Yeah I said it.
SLAYED
yeay! we have a new troll playground! 
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proudhon being wrong
Wrong he may be, but If I were him I would be loving the fact that I was.
...
All that sensible bearishness probably helped push up the price. N00bs go online, search for "bitcoins", find proudhon's posts and think "hmm, what a sensible bunch! It's not a bubble after all. Buy buy buy!"
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proudhon being wrong
Wrong he may be, but If I were him I would be loving the fact that I was.
we love you proudhon, except your avatar.
we also love that.
proudhon you looking for a new gif for your avatar?
This made me lol by the way.
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
ya me too...
the more the price goes up the harder it is to work
+1 i keep getting distracted too from work lol
come on bitcoin, go to 1,000$ a coin so we all dont have to work for a while
If it went that high, you can bet your ass I'd keep working my normal job and paying my rent using those taxed USD.
proudhon you looking for a new gif for your avatar?
The bear defines me. I don't think I can change it.
proudhon you looking for a new gif for your avatar?
I guess this thread is now "irrelevant" as I would quote one specific miner whose name starts with a "V" and ends in "amir".
time to skin that bear
I voted "No" just now. Is that cheating?
I ALREADY DID THIS JOKE
I voted "No" just now. Is that cheating?
that bear is still there. I suggest you replace it with this
That bear is probably getting angry.. I believe that dance is called the "maul"
Even though I'm happy 7.2 wasn't the 2012 high, this recent jump does have me worried a bit because it does feel like a new bubble somewhat and I really hope we stop at this level and stay here for at least 2 weeks.
FWIW, I just voted "no".
How very astute and foretelling of you.
FWIW, I just voted "no".
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
ya me too...
the more the price goes up the harder it is to work
+1 i keep getting distracted too from work lol
come on bitcoin, go to 1,000$ a coin so we all dont have to work for a while
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
ya me too...
the more the price goes up the harder it is to work
+1 i keep getting distracted too from work lol
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
Maybe come back when we hit 10$
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
ya me too...
the more the price goes up the harder it is to work
I gotta get out of here. I've got a bunch of work to do...
that bear is still there. I suggest you replace it with this
Haha, no way. They're still safely tucked away. The nice thing about them is that it's quite a hassle to get them out, gotta go to a location, unlock something, take the laminated sheet out, cut it open, take the middle page out (the private key), you get the point. I'm partially protected by my laziness.
proudhon is shitting his pants!
proudhon being wrong:
That's probably right. I still think $7.20 will provide some significant resistance. There's still a chance $7.20 remains the 2012 high.
I'm sure we'll see it grow into the 30,000+ size in the coming days. I don't see the price moving beyond $6 for some time, and I still think there's a good chance we've already seen the 2012 high.
I agree. Not this year. I think $7.20 will be the 2012 high.
proudhon being wrong:
My unscientific gut feeling is that if we break $6.8 we keep going to $7. 
That's probably right. I still think $7.20 will provide some significant resistance. There's still a chance $7.20 remains the 2012 high.
Awesome, the rally seems to be slowing down, the $6 wall tripled over the last 3 hours.
I'm sure we'll see it grow into the 30,000+ size in the coming days. I don't see the price moving beyond $6 for some time, and I still think there's a good chance we've already seen the 2012 high.
$7.2x was the 2012 high. Deal with it.
that boat has sailed and won't be coming back for a long time
I agree. Not this year. I think $7.20 will be the 2012 high.
you are merciless.
proudhon is shitting his pants!
proudhon being wrong:
That's probably right. I still think $7.20 will provide some significant resistance. There's still a chance $7.20 remains the 2012 high.
I'm sure we'll see it grow into the 30,000+ size in the coming days. I don't see the price moving beyond $6 for some time, and I still think there's a good chance we've already seen the 2012 high.
I agree. Not this year. I think $7.20 will be the 2012 high.
proudhon being wrong:
My unscientific gut feeling is that if we break $6.8 we keep going to $7.
That's probably right. I still think $7.20 will provide some significant resistance. There's still a chance $7.20 remains the 2012 high.
Awesome, the rally seems to be slowing down, the $6 wall tripled over the last 3 hours.
I'm sure we'll see it grow into the 30,000+ size in the coming days. I don't see the price moving beyond $6 for some time, and I still think there's a good chance we've already seen the 2012 high.
$7.2x was the 2012 high. Deal with it.
that boat has sailed and won't be coming back for a long time
I agree. Not this year. I think $7.20 will be the 2012 high.
Failpicture is fail. But
$7.90 FTW?
$7.90 FTW?
I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'
Officially a new high for the year =)
Oh whoops, $7.23! This is it!
I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.
is that true? has the adoption rate slowed? where is it possible to see such data/statistics?
I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'
Will you take last 1000 BTC bought VWAP of $7.2 at gox during last 30 minutes as adequate signal?
I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'
Meh, fine. :p 
Just curious what you folks think.
It will be $10+
I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'
Everyone who said Yes is now wrong.
High:$7.21999
High:$7.21999
Just curious what you folks think.
Dont think so...
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.
So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).
Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.
You are forgetting the effect this news has on people
Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !
But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.
Good point, plus announcing you are changing it is very different from the BTC situation. It is well known and will be mostly priced in by the time we get there.
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.
So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).
Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.
You are forgetting the effect this news has on people
Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !
But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.
So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).
Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.
You are forgetting the effect this news has on people
Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.
So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).
Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.
I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...
You have no idea about game theory do you?
I think price will double when the reward cuts in half in December.
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Buying and holding all I can in the meantime.
I would expect no less than $10 in December for sure.
If it is one good thing that SoiledCon showed us, it is this. When block reward was cut price immediately rose.
I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...
Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.
Buying and holding all I can in the meantime.
I would expect no less than $10 in December for sure.
If it is one good thing that SoiledCon showed us, it is this. When block reward was cut price immediately rose.
I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...
I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.
Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?
Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.
I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.
I see; thank you.
I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.
Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?
Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.
I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.
I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.
Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?
Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.
I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.
Using my incredible scientific method (bitcoincharts.com --> charts --> the gox --> maximum time period --> make edumacated McGuesstimate), it's clear that the price will go sideways 'til about May or June, then go parabolic to $40+ by October.
Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.
I think it's more than possible.
Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.
I wouldn't be surprised to break above $7.20 this year. In the moment, (as I stated in another thread), the market cap is awfully small, and still would be "small" at $7.20 - I'm looking for more along the lines of a $100M - no later than year's end. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bubble to $10ish, see a new bottom form at the $7.20 zone, and then a steady rise to find the reality of the $10+ resistance.
There's definitely a real basis for a move up beyond the bottom we've largely established so far this year. There is definitely an influx of solid, hard money. (Mining gear sales alone suggest this) - I don't actually think the true level of investment is priced into the market yet. This is what I expect to drive us up past the $7.20 mark (to make that a new bottom) - There is a ton of investment that hasn't hit the network yet - it's going to start to hit May/June.
Also, somewhere between $20M and $50M an investment becomes too valuable to allow a chance of failure, and seems reaching that level often results in a direct influx of cash. Again, if this were a startup, and the actual investors were venture capitalists, they'd be looking for 20:1 on their initial investment, within 3-5yrs, sooooo... that's a lot of money.
There's definitely a real basis for a move up beyond the bottom we've largely established so far this year. There is definitely an influx of solid, hard money. (Mining gear sales alone suggest this) - I don't actually think the true level of investment is priced into the market yet. This is what I expect to drive us up past the $7.20 mark (to make that a new bottom) - There is a ton of investment that hasn't hit the network yet - it's going to start to hit May/June.
Also, somewhere between $20M and $50M an investment becomes too valuable to allow a chance of failure, and seems reaching that level often results in a direct influx of cash. Again, if this were a startup, and the actual investors were venture capitalists, they'd be looking for 20:1 on their initial investment, within 3-5yrs, sooooo... that's a lot of money.
Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?
$4 is likely the new bottom, but there's still 2/3 of 2012 left. I see an overall rise in this chart... if that slight trend continues, it could be possible to break 7.2 by 12/21/2012
Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?
Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?
I would be very surprised if $7.2 was the high of the year and obviously disappointed. Especially now that Bitcoin has got basically the biggest news boost since the summer (seriously) with a front page Reuters article linked all over the place and a London Times print article, in fact 2 print articles in the same magazine. On top of this we have basically a regular blogger at Forbes and much more positive/productive news coverage than before.
Of course if it just turns out as hype once again, it will be disappointing. However I see this year and the next as the years of actual growth (of Bitcoin usage). So far we have mostly had growth of 1) Silk Road 2) Speculation and 3) General interest but there is so much more coming. So much more.
Of course if it just turns out as hype once again, it will be disappointing. However I see this year and the next as the years of actual growth (of Bitcoin usage). So far we have mostly had growth of 1) Silk Road 2) Speculation and 3) General interest but there is so much more coming. So much more.
The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.
That logic cuts both ways, y'know. The ask side isn't the one with a 50k wall 
I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density. There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.
The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.
A lot can happen in nine months.
A lot can happen in nine hours even.
$7.20 is a 48% rise from the current level. If history were to ever repeat itself, that size of rise happening in a day or two has occurred mutliple times in Bitcoin's history.
The jump Jan 4th-5th was like that:
- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigDailyzczsg2012-1-01zeg2012-1-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Or the jump on May 11, 2011:
- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-05-11zeg2011-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Though to be fair, that size of drop happening in a day or two has occurred even more often.
The Mt. Gox order book currently sits at $1,004,293 to buy all the ask orders through $7.20 (which would acquire 177,076 BTC) according to BTCCharts.com. Thats not a particularly large amount should there be a crowd or even a single entity wanting in quickly.
I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density. There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.
Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?
No! $7.20 will be the new 2012 bottom.
Um, that makes no sense.
Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?
No! $7.20 will be the new 2012 bottom.
Just curious what you folks think.
no, because $7.22 was reached
A lot can happen in nine months.
A lot can happen in nine hours even.
$7.20 is a 48% rise from the current level. If history were to ever repeat itself, that size of rise happening in a day or two has occurred mutliple times in Bitcoin's history.
The jump Jan 4th-5th was like that:
- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigDailyzczsg2012-1-01zeg2012-1-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Or the jump on May 11, 2011:
- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-05-11zeg2011-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Though to be fair, that size of drop happening in a day or two has occurred even more often.
The Mt. Gox order book currently sits at $1,004,293 to buy all the ask orders through $7.20 (which would acquire 177,076 BTC) according to BTCCharts.com. Thats not a particularly large amount should there be a crowd or even a single entity wanting in quickly.
I wouldn't rule it out, but I think it's unlikely.
A lot can happen in nine months.
A lot can happen in nine months.
Oh wow.
The question is suggestive though.
The question is suggestive though.
Just curious what you folks think.
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