Topic: Will a FIRE SALE start when mt gox opens back up? (Read 1338 times)

The people who want to sell due to lost confidence will probably be counter-weighted by those who heard about this whole crash thing and have come with a view to buy, smelling a bargain.

Dunno but this time around I'll place some buy orders for 0.01 USD/BTC for sure.

It might even be possible that there isn't a huge sell-off and once people realize the sky isn't falling, BTC rallies.

I think some are trying to spook people to sell cheep.

Ha, just bought an open box deal on newegg.  More to come, I'm sure.

First I want to make sure my USD $'s are available in my account then I plan to keep a close eye out for the first couple hours of trading to see how things are trending. I would only assume since a price is set on other markets that things will not change much besides people moving some money to another exchange.

The first few hours will be chaotic*. There are quite a few people waiting to both cash out and get money in to MtGox. Although, I see prices trending downward initially for several reasons:

- people fed up with the whole bitcoin thing. they want to get whatever money they can and just get out.
- people that have lost confidence in MtGox. This will be a mixture of transferring their USD to dwala and their bitcoins to their wallets.
- people that need their money/bitcoins to pay for stuff and just haven't been able to get to it (normal cash-outs/transfers)

These things will depress the Bitcoin value as many of those that wish to buy will be waiting for a dip before that buy (knowing that others are eager to sell). After a few hours I see the price becoming mostly stable in the $10 - $12 range (although a quick, occasional, dip lower is possible) as the sellers leave the market and the good deals on buying dry up. From this range the market will drift up slowly as those still in get back into their normal routines and trading gets back to something that could be considered 'normal'. Assuming few glitches, and most people have access to their accounts without problem, I give the market a week to ten days to more or less stabilize before moving forward.

Short term: 1 BTC = $10 - $12
Slightly longer term: 1 BTC = $17 - $20 (roughly where we were before this all started)

Recommendations:

1. When MtGox is back, log in and verify everything is alright. Probably a good idea to change your password and verify your e-mail address that they have on record for you.
2. Buy or Sell only if necessary. Don't trade at all for 24 hours if you don't really need to.
3. The keen eye will spot good deals and the quick hand will snatch them. Fortune will favor the prepared here very much.
4. Lady Luck will also be around to punish the foolish, try not to be one of those because it WILL hurt.
5. If in doubt about #3 and #4 then see #2.

_{* Chaotic; as in getting your ass trampled in the entryway of Wal-Mart at an after Christmas sale type chaotic.}

I think it will just end up with a wave of transfers to wallets.  Bitcoiners' default seems to hoard.

It'll be interesting to see what happens once MtGox re-opens. Rationally, if people have lost their confidence in MtGox, they should withdraw their coins and currency and trade them on another exchange, whereas if they have lost their confidence in bitcoin, they should trade everything back to currency and withdraw, which would put downward pressure on the value of the bitcoin. The questions are: which one have people lost confidence in, and are they smart enough to know the difference?

Has anyones account been reactivated yet? Mine hasn't.

can't wait to get some good cards on the cheap

I'm sure some people will cash out and there will be people there to buy up the cheap BC's.

I expect to see some liquidation.

Personally, I will transfer 50% of my coins out into my personal account and trade the rest....

I thought they were wiping all outstanding orders and restarting?

Anyway, I'm more interested in the GPU crash.   Newegg is already getting massive returns, so I expect to see a flood of high-end ATI cards on craigslist, ebay, overstock, etc.

$10 5770 please.

The big factor will more likely be people that have had their USD or bitcoins stuck in mtgox for over a week, and want to transfer their currency out instead of trading on the site.

Mtgox should also give a few days of grace period before trading starts so people can go in and cancel their standing buy and sell orders at last week's prices. Trading at gox was last at 17 when it closed, but is at 15 now at Tradehill: https://www.tradehill.com/MarketData/. If there are still buy orders in the system between 15 and 17 BTC that buyers aren't able to cancel before trading starts, they will probably get filled real quick until the gox price is down to tradehill's 15. Since all the standing buy orders can be closely analyzed by just replaying the "crash" that got rolled back, insiders already know who wants to buy what at what price.

Stability is a red herring.  Which way it goes, nobody really knows.  You place your bets and you take your chances.

I must get a few buy orders in at 0.01. then get ready on the withdraw button .

personally i don't think they'll drop much at all (but you never know) why would any one too low fo them when they could just withdraw them and put them into Trade Hill for free ? And sure you mich think that TH will drop too, but you just have to have some confidence in bitcoin and keep them safe on your computer. If you dont you dont deserve to get much for your coins and all the better for those that get to buy up cheap !  (i will be one of them, i have USD in my account not BTC)

 Me, personally, I'd like to sell all the coin within 10 minutes after opening... Probably I'll buy more BTC several hours later...

Im just wondering if the pro bitcoiners think that when mt gox opens back up a huge amont of people will sale their bitcoins?
How stable do you think this is?