Topic: Will another ETF be immediately bullish for Bitcoin? (Read 851 times)

I am tempted to agree that a correction will happen. I have no technical analysis to back this up, it's just a non-professional opinion. In other words, it's just a theory.
If/when ETF is approved, Bitcoin price will rise, but I believe it would just be a short-term impact at first. This will be because there will be so much demand for Bitcoin forcing the price to rise, but after a while, there may be a huge amount of sales causing the price to drop.
The price will go up again because of course after a lot of people have started buying the dip.

This theory depends on when it would be approved, and the time between the approval and Bitcoin halving.
Not many investors would want to sell their Bitcoin when they know a halving is close.

Yes I do think another ETF is going to be 'bullish' for Bitcoin right away. And now the world's largest crypto index fund manager has released a new commercial about spot Bitcoin ETF.

Do you guys remember 'the most interesting man in the world'? Well now we have 'the Most Interesting Bitcoin Video in the World'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTDyYxynpMU

This may happen if Asian markets adopt ETFs where upward pressure on prices occurs due to increased demand, but talking about the potential reversal of Asian Markets, I don't think anyone is monitoring the valuations, thus making them very volatile.

Market conditions can also be very responsive to changes in demand and supply, significant selling actions can trigger price declines even though large institutions such as Blackrock continue to buy and the chicken and egg question arises in our minds, which comes first?

If after the approval of the ETF bitcoin will not immediately pump, I speculate what might pump bitcoin higher are the ads that will give more attention to bitcoin hehehe.

Google has updated their policy to allow ads for bitcoin ETFs. This will certainly cause google searches for bitcoin to pump which has always been correlated to the price.



Google’s crypto policy update is due to be enacted in the same month many anticipate the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. While the policy is expanding to include “Cryptocurrency Coin Trusts,” Google said cryptocurrency ETFs and ETNs can already advertise on its platform in the U.S., provided they comply with local legal requirements.

The next deadlines for the Security and Exchange Commission’s decision to approve, reject or delay applications from firms including BlackRock, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, Valkyrie and VanEck are expected to fall in mid-January.

Source https://www.theblock.co/post/267006/google-crypto-ads-spot-bitcoin-etf

if all those who buy ETF understand withdrawing their BTC out coinbase, the circulating supply would decrease. price usually goes up when the demand is larger than the supply.

it must be different in the Asian market, we don't haave this ETF yet so anyone from the East is selling BTC, I guess it's going to be dumped to those who are buying from the West. Blackrock and friends i think will still be buying, however.

Just remember that when there was a fake news published by coin telegraph about the acceptance of blackrock bitcoin ETF, the market was triggered and experienced a significant price spike, this shows that today's bitcoin ETF has a different sentiment, because the asset management company that launched the bitcoin ETF is a large company and has the largest managed assets in the world, of course it will increase the narrative and different sentiment, than the previous one.

If it does happen, the mainstream media of the financial world will report on bitcoin ETFs, mechanically it will provide a broad introduction in the traditional investment world and I think it will trigger a fairly significant adoption of bitcoin, but I think this is not easy, because the SEC continues to delay and delay about this, and maybe we will be made bored.

IDK if what is the status of it now but we can see last time, that even if it was just a rumor, the price already skyrocket, so how much more by the time it was approved for real right? Not sure how effective ETF for BTC mean, but it seems positive. And helps BTC to be among with other established companies or their assets/stocks. It makes it more popular and many investors will not be afraid on it anymore.

It's not that people are crashing it because they want to buy less, but people naturally sell in order to earn a massive profit. Apart from BTC, there are also rumors that ETH will be approved too as an ETF. Each are different but both of them were still a crypto, so BTC and other coins can still benefit with it.

So you mean the next halving will occur in March-April 2024? just like most people say that the next halving will occur in 2024 and I also believe it. but in my opinion March-April is still too fast, maybe it takes a little longer between October-November. apart from that problem I believe the introduction of an ETF will have a very good impact on the price of bitcoin.

I think one of the important criteria will be how those ETFs are structured and what the reserve requirements will look like. I haven't looked into any of the specifics of those big ETAs that are scheduled or due to be decided, but if anyone can provide some insight as to what that means in concrete terms, I would appreciate that. If an ETF has a certain volume, what will the Bitcoin reserves be that the ETF provider/operator has to have at any given point in time? This could also shed some light on interesting numbers in the future when financial institutions and other corporations have to be transparent about that.

If we do have that success ETH or approval on January 2024 then it would be a huge spike.

‘Mark Your Calendars’—Date Revealed As Huge $17 Trillion Bitcoin ETF Countdown Suddenly Begins, Heralding Ethereum, XRP And Crypto Price Chaos
Source

ETF is good yet institutional would really be that flowing into this market but i dont really like when we do speak about its cons.
Anonymity would really be that somewhat will be an issue. Am i right?

Whenever an ETF is approved, whether it is sometime next year or a few years from now, it'll definitely cause a large spike in price. After the spike could be some people will try to sell the spike to crash it back down some, but the overall price effect will be very positive.

And that's just of course the news of an announcement. Once the ETF(s) start operating and billions of dollars start buying up Bitcoin that'll of course also cause a large price spike.

From what I see, as others have said here, the ETF's upcoming halving and bull run will have a different outcome compared to past halvings. These are what I see and feel. And we can also notice that in the speculations of the other famous people in this industry.

And a lot is really expected in this matter; it seems that what we read and watch in various news stories in the crypto space is all positive. But we still shouldn't be confident because, at the end of the day, ETF will still be the next to approve this matter.

It's obvious though, we don't have the control and the power as to when the ETF will be approved by the SEC and for sure, we don't look at it this year. Nevertheless, based on the news that we heard and the entities involved, who knows, the likelihood though might be high as SEC can't delay or not approve it in the future.


With that, let the market flows normally, we have seen this already, and I think we have seen worst like in the bear market. But at the end of the day, the market is very resilient to attacks and negative news, so what's more with a positive outlook in a Bitcoin Spot ETF approval? Everything is good now. And lest we forget, there will be the block halving scheduled for next year.

I think the outcome of these things are not really all that certain, and we should be careful when we are making decisions like this. I mean it's quite clear that ETF is something that government really takes a look at very clearly and closely, which means that it is going to be hard to get it accepted. I know that it may not be all that easy to handle, but it is going to be possible eventually. So, we should be clear on what we are assuming that will happen, if we keep on having too much hype about this then when it gets postponed like it always does, then we would be upset.

Market learned about this the hard way, it has stopped caring about getting approved or not, because they realized without getting a concrete response, there is no need to buy or sell. Nowadays, we ignore it completely, and wait for it to get a response and if it any of them gets accepted then I bet the price will go up a lot but before that I do not think that we will react anyway.

Not only BNB, other cryptocurrencies as well including Bitcoin. ETF is kind a fundamental in order for the price to move, it's a good news to crypto enthusiast since it will give positive impact to Bitcoin once it is approved. There are news that very important to crypto and we should be aware of that because they commonly use it to manipulate retail traders and investors. One of that is FOMC, this news affects Bitcoin's price in a positive or negative way, we should take care of our funds. In my opinion, if you're not sure in the market or if the market is unreadable it's better stay away from the market and go back when the manipulation ends.

I think in the short term it will still have an effect but not a big impact, for example, when good news appears, bitcoin and eth will rise for a short time and then slowly fall again.
Even though the impact was small, at least it increased when the news was announced.
I will take another example, when the CEO of Binance resigned, of course it had an impact on the price of BNB, even if only slightly.

About the potential for manipulation because the launch of the ETF can already be predicted and of course big players will do the best possible manipulation.
Negatively or positively impact retailers depending on how retailers seize the moment.
Don't fight their manipulation, we have to be prepared for anything that can happen.

Right now people are focused on talking about BlackRock's ETF filing and there is a possibility that the other 2 institutions,
namely Grayscale and CBOE, will get approval or at least get a decision on their matter, in front of the world's largest asset manager.

These three institutions are competing with each other for the First Spot Bitcoin ETF and certainly the one who benefits the most is that Bitcoin investors will be the winners


 Source: K33 Research | BlackRock Bitcoin ETF timeline

And  maybe The real impact of an ETF launch on Bitcoin prices can be seen in the timing of the launch, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, and how institutional investors react to the news.

This is normal, because the price response to the launch of an ETF cannot be predicted with certainty and I see that the introduction of an ETF also has the potential to be manipulated by large market players, giving rise to price manipulation and negative consequences for retail investors. However, the details are only when it has been approved whether it is true or false.

People have a lot of predictions as always, either up or down, but neither seem that convincing to me until either the current $25K support level fails or $28K resistance breaks. Generally people think a re-test of $20K or $30K will come next, personally I think $23K is the next level of support based on volume profile over the past year or so. Based on today's price action it seems that $25K is unlikely to hold as support (again) but that said it's too early to tell being the first day of the week. Given the news of FTX liquidations "apparently" on the horizon I don't trust price action so much right now as it's being heavily influenced by news events.

For example price could crash to $23K, even $20K, based on the liquidation news. But then if it turns out these liquidations won't be happening anytime soon then price could swiftly recover. I'm otherwise not so convinced of breaking $30K this year anymore, we had the opportunity for that to happen for about 3 months but bulls failed, so not expecting that opportunity to return very quickly, not until next year imo. At a guess I think consolidation between $20K to $30K until the end of the year seems relatively likely. This has more or less been the case for the past 9 months so I see no reason it can't continue for another 3 months.

That said if $25K does somehow hold as support and $28K breaks as resistance, then the chances of breaking $30K resistance level increases. As does the possibility of consolidating between $25K and $30K for another few months, given price has already consolidated in this range for 6 months, confirming there is a healthy balance at present between buyers and sellers in this range. I guess this is why I don't have a lot of technical analysis right now, because it's generally based on "more or the same price action", ie sideways or consolidation, rather than bullish/bearish, even if some lower prices come first. At least until something gives.

Do we have some kind of prediction until the end of the year? I used to see you posting some technical analysis indicators, but I haven’t seen any of them for a while. Notice that the price is losing momentum and breaking $28,000 has become a challenge. So, will we remain below 30,000 for the end of the year, or might we settle between 26,000 to 36,000, or lower than that?

Am starting to get the impression that the next leg up, or otherwise new bull market, won't be until next year either now. There is also the (somewhat unconfirmed) news that FTX will be selling off $268m Bitcoin over the next 17 weeks which would take us to the end of the year. The irony being that this isn't a lot for liquidity to absorb (it'd be around $16m per week), but would likely spook investors in the immediate term.

By next year there should be a clean slate for price to be able to move back to the upside, especially once there are only a few months until the halving.

In my opinion, the mass introduction of ETFs will start in March-April 2024, by the time bitcoin halves, which will start a new bull run. A bull run doesn't start out of nowhere - you need some kind of infopod. And this information occasion is always prepared in advance

I would guess that launch date would be one of the worst times to invest, because everyone would have been invested beforehand and when it happens they will just sell to take profit. I know that I could also be very wrong but I believe that it is going to be like that. We are going to end up with something that would be more like going super high before it happens and then crash when it happens to take profit.

Most many people will have too much money tied to it, so they will want to not take any more risk and sell it. Obviously this will not be true if it happens during bull run, because during big bull runs we see it go up, and then see it go up even more which means that it could happen like that as well.

The decision to be made on wether to approve bitcoin ETF applications or not is not base on the market indications alone, we may have a bear market althrough this season and yet there's a confirmation coming from SEC for approval, the fourteenth year perfection is good enough for them to take a look at, with being consistent in the market in other to know the difference bitcoin has from other cryptocurrencies, and now that the governments are seing more of bitcoin being recognized as an acceptable means of payment they can rely and trust, we should be expecting any good news between now till next year when the market surge, maybe by then all their doubts would have been cleared and most bitcoin ETF will be approved.

Not on the anticipation no, that sentiment has been around for many years already. But on the approval prior to the launch event, that'd likely be a few weeks or could even be months away.

It was a similar story for other Bitcoin related launch products, futures & etf strategies etc. The market is usually bullish from the approval but then dumps after the launch.

Sometimes the launch date is only days after the approval, so potentially that could be the least fatal option, in order not to dump too hard on the news.

@dragonvslinux. However, if at the very least one of the applications was quite certain to be approved this year, should the market not begin to move more positively in anticipation to the approval?

Similar conditions for GBTC and Barry's group because if there is one ETF that will approved, GBTC converting into an ETF is 100% certain. Watch the movement of GBTC from discount to premium. This might be the first signal.

It's because all ETF applications that had their decision dates this week postponed. It just means there won't be an ETF approved this week, not that there won't be one this year.


They are just speculating that it will happen eventually, and I imagine in the long-term they'll be right about that as well. Since the discount was 40$ to NAV people have been speculating, now it's only around 20%.

I doubt that Greyscale will be the first ETF though, but they'll get there eventually once others are approved.

It appears the market is telling everyone that there will be no approvals for any of the applications on ETFs this year? What is everyone's speculation on this?

Also, after Grayscale won their case against the SEC, I reckon our attention should be on GBTC. Barry and his insiders would be buying much of this if they have confidential information if an ETF approval of any of the applications is near hehehe.

This image has been shared a million times and people still can't keep their logic on this. I mean it's obvious that the market has a cycle and we need to come to agreement with it and learn how to manipulate it. I have been burned by this before but I learned it and for the past bull run I took full advantage of it thankfully, and this time I am expecting to take full advantage of it again. I am not saying it's going to be easy or difficult, but I am sure that it will happen one way or another.

We are at the "hope" stage probably, and it's going to get to optimism around the new year, and then it's going to get much better after that because we are going to reach belief after halving, and peak times after the halving of course.

Agreed. These cryptonews outlets might also have given less of a 50% chance for Brad Garlichouse and Ripple to win the lawsuit that the SEC filed against the company hehehe. When the ETF is approved, I reckon this is where disbelief is suddenly replaced by hope and optimism.

I think we're discussing the next election cycle if it requires a large change in opinion behind prior refusals and most probably a change in the official barring the approval required.  So that time line is next year not this year and actually maybe end of next year into 2025 before any ETF would be near to available for the ordinary person interested.   Theres GBTC now but when I inquire on that route its not available to me especially and thats probably the case for a few others.   I would have bought already if it was clearly available, it would probably help BTC some for a short while at least but also reverse some of the support helping other alternate proxies currently used by people for BTC in their portfolio.

I fully believe that if a spot bitcoin ETF gets approved - then the high demand for bitcoin will drive its price to the moon. That's the best assumption I can think of - but either way this bitcoin ETF doesn't seem like it's going to be that easy to get approved for. The SEC seems to disagree about ETFs, they may be afraid that when the price of bitcoin goes to the moon then the stability of the world economy will be disturbed and they will not be able to control it.

It's great for ETFs to get approved - but I believe this idea won't be easy. Many of us have been preparing to hear the positive news - but some how I think it will be hard to come true.

If an ETF will get approved sometime close to the halvening, it might become a source of media hype that will help to fuel the bull run (that would happen with or without it). In the previous cycle we had "institutional adoption hype", with Microstrategy leading the way, Tesla following and later a few other companies making statements about adopting Bitcoin, that seem to never materialize.

But I think the relationship between the media hype and bull run is not clear. Is the hype causing the bull run or the bull run creates a need to explain it, so positive news get amplified?

Definitely, market reacts to the news itself, but there could be non effect at all as we have been hearing this ETF as far back as 2016 and yet the market thrives and reaching new all time high every 4 year cycle.

However, as bitcoin market is growing, there could be pros and cons of having and ETF instrument in the future. For one who will see institutional money flowing in and this could be the biggest reasons why the price might to go 6 digits in the future.

This is a very good point that I hadn't seen anyone mention yet. For example if you believe that the reason why price rebounded strong from $25K to $30K is because of the ETF filings - which personally I'm not convinced of, but many believe this it seems - then any rejection could well see price correct back towards where it came from prior to the "bullish ETF" news, ie around $25K.

I can't remember exact examples but I do remember previous ETF rejections having a negative effect on price, likewise any approval would almost certainly be bullish for price (at least until the launch date).

If news about ETFs can help push up the price of bitcoin, we should also be careful because if they are not accepted, it will also negatively affect the market. Everything has its two sides, don't just look at the benefits but forget about its bad effects on the market. And so far, the SEC has consistently rejected and delayed ETFs, so I don't take this news too seriously. News about ETFs will be interesting if we are in 2017, 2018, but nothing too new right now.

I believe that the launch of another ETF will result in a gradual and consistent increase in the price of Bitcoin for two reasons. Firstly, by making a Bitcoin available for trading on major US stock exchanges, it will grant access to Bitcoin exposure for millions of individuals who are already invested in various forms of stocks, ETFs, or indices. Secondly, as new investors enter this ETF, there is a high probability that they will become interested in learning how to purchase actual Bitcoin. Doing their own research on whether to invest in the Bitcoin ETF will therefore lead individuals to discover the advantages of holding their own bitcoin and the financial independence that can result from it. As more people adopt this bitcoin, the demand for Bitcoin will rise, consequently driving up its price. We have already witnessed a similar effect with BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and what it did to the price.

Oh they have no idea! They are just stating 50% so they can cover their butts no matter which direction the ETF result goes. It's just them baiting readers as a sort of marketing tactic to grow their own reader audience. No matter which way it goes, the publishers will boast of a true prediction from their side.

I too would be leaning towards ETF approval at this point.

The first signal of an approval would be a pump. Half an hour to an hour later, we will see social media blowing up and lastly, the "news" will be the "first" to report on it.

I’m surprised to see that news outlets are saying there’s only about a 50% chance of an ETF approval. Not sure what time like they’re putting with those odds, but at this point I’d say the odds are closer to 100% with the banks filing for these funds and it will be bullish. I also believe approvals have been delayed until this point to try and match the demand with the supply from distribution of the mtgox coins.

A Spot ETF approval(s) would be absolutely bullish for bitcoin. There is no doubt about that. It allows a whole new wave of money to flow into bitcoin which is this far prohibited. The sooner it happen, the better. I think the SEC will approve one before too long due to pressure from respected big names in the world of finance.

If it's a spot Bitcoin ETH, it might make the price of Bitcoin reach it's previous ATH faster than everyone would've thought.
I just watched a video hours ago regarding ETF's.

It said on that video that the best example on what could be the effect of a spot Bitcoin ETF is the first Gold spot ETF that has been accepted many years ago. Before that, the price of Gold was at around $400 per ounce. After it got accepted, the price of Gold went from ~$400 to around ~$2000 in just a span of 7 years.

If Blackrock's filing for spot Bitcoin ETF will get accepted by SEC, I'm pretty sure that it will have the same effect as when the Gold spot ETF was accepted, and the good thing is that I expect that it will be faster that's why I expect Bitcoin to reach it's previous ATH of ~$69,000 way earlier, and when I mean way earlier, it might happen a few months before the halving. Now to answer the question, yes it will be a bullish because investors see this as a good thing and when there's a good thing happening with the market, people tend to buy more thus, increasing it's price.

The problem right now is Gary Gensler who is holding these spot Bitcoin ETF's, but on the other hand, of all the 550+ number of ETF's Blackrock has filed, only one got rejected. Still the chances of it to be accepted would be 50/50 so anything can happen. Overall, this filing would have a huge effect on Bitcoin's price, and the whole crypto market as well.

Today I think on CNBC or Bloomberg or one of the larger finance stations they had the former head of the SEC who is claiming that SEC should approve the Bitcoin ETF.

How did the markets react? They didn’t seem to care. So until we get a solid YES or NO most likely nothing will come of this Bitcoin etf speculation. Plus there is also the halving which is going to happen at a similar time when the majority of these etfs are going to be approved or denied.

I know that it would be good for everyone to see bitcoin price going up and we love these things but that doesn't mean we are going to end up with a good result right away, plus we shouldn't really see one for a while longer there is no doubt that no ETF will happen these days.

What I really want to see is Gary getting fired, that would be a great reason for bitcoin to go up, I know not a lot of people expect that to be the case and we are not going to get a lot of good results right away, but I feel like that would be a good one. I think it is going to be very important for us all and if that happens then we can see that Gary can't do bad stuff about crypto companies anymore and the price would react to that which would be going up a lot.

We know that in the past few years regarding that in the past ETFs, all that happened were rejections, that's why there was only a massive dump in the Bitcoin value, and it was repeated several times and there were many witnesses.

Now, if this time next year there is a positive result about in that ETF, this will probably be the first time that there is an approved application that passed in ETF if I'm not mistaken in my understanding and it's good, and very favorable to bitcoin holders because there will surely be a rally in the market in terms of its value.

Or because of his political affiliations, he is forced not to accept any Bitcoin ETF as long as he is the Chairman of SEC. Which means this is really bad for us whatever we like it or not. Because there is an argument that we don't need ETF itself, but on the other hand, there is a proponent and we see huge amount of institutional money flowing in the market that can push us to the next level, at least 6 digit next bull run. So we will see how it goes, I have a feeling that we might have a breakthrough acceptance in the next future coinciding with a a new all time high.

"Why a Bitcoin ETF approval would be a big deal" - https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-a-bitcoin-etf-approval-would-be-a-big-deal

Gary just holds the bitcoin growing in my opinion, according to the Forbes Advisor Bitcoin is growing it already touch the 1 Billion mark so it will continue to rise if the recent filling get approval well the 35K level it will achive at the end of year

- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/best-bitcoin-etfs/

Fair point, there is only a few examples to go by, even if all were bearish scenarios, it's far from a conclusive trend.


This is to some degree what I'm expecting. I can't imagine there wouldn't be overblown speculation to the upside if an ETF is approved or date set for launch. And with these speculative overblown moves to the upside there is always a correction that follows. Given that the speculation usually leads up to the event, rather than begins during/afterwards, then this is my theory for a considerable correction post launch.

Ie if the question were will price be bullish speculation leading into an ETF launch I'd say absolutely, this is my main reasoning for considering the launch itself to trigger a bearish correction.

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Nice graphic +1

Personally I would expect the effect of another Bitcoin ETF on the price in the immediate term if approved would be positive, of course we will see a lot of volatility but it will be positive in the end.

You can see the positive impact that happened as soon as you hear the news, if BlackRock is actually approved, at least with a very large capital, there will be a lot of liquidity entering the market and therefore the effect is expected to be immediate.

Of course, there are other companies with additional liquidity that will enter the market, and this will certainly have a great positive impact. In addition to the moral victory the market will gain if it wins this battle with the SEC.

He really is, I wonder if he steps down and we will be able to see a spot Bitcoin ETF, maybe in the coming years. There's still time left before these recent filings expires and it's still up to September the next year and if approved by ser Gary even one filings that would be very bullish for the whole market, no doubt. We even see the sentiment gearing up even if it's just still a filing, how much more when it's within investor's grasp? Too bullish.

It would be brought to bullish in my opinion since etf would be buy bitcoin right? and if more institutions came up bitcoin would drive up, but bitcoin price would be highly correlated with other asset like stock and economic news.

Tho Sec seems not to approve yet any Bitcoin ETF out there

Update :  

Mr gary seems dont like the bitcoin etf

I think the way bitcoin has been maturing is good. Blackrock can add more of that, it really is going to depend how much contribution to the are going buy in with is important. BR has trillions it may be an issues for them simply buy enough bitcoin and not bake the market. They swing a big D*** and could easily generate a problem likke  with Ginsler, suppress the price and buy in then "fix" the problem

ETF's let people include them in retirement accounts (401K) and such is kinda cool.

What did you expected him to say? We are not going to get our ETF approved? Of course he would look like he is super excited about it and believe that it is going to be approved, I am not saying he is lying, all I am saying is that he could be biased towards his own ETF getting approved even if it is not going to get approved, I am not even saying it is not going to get approved, maybe it will be, but we can't really understand that from what he is saying because he is lop sided on that idea.

So, all we have to do is wait for it to do well, and I would be glad to see that change sometime soon. If it gets approved that would of course be a good thing for the crypto world, we would love to see that happening and should be happy that it did.

The black rock ceo was on the news today talking about Bitcoin. Seems he really wants that etf to get approved and launched and he is fairly sure it will get approved.

You would think Bitcoin would rally on this news however it basically traded sideways and went down. Basically proof that these etf news releases won’t make any concrete difference until it’s actually approved or rejected.

Now it’s more about the fed and if they will hike or not.

If the bad effects occur yes but what if it's the positive one? I think it's better to buy right now because this price might still be cheaper compared to what we will have later on. It seems there are no more corrections in $30k because we are getting stable for some time. It probably moved in the higher levels. Everyone is positive in the upcoming halving that it can have a positive effect in Bitcoins value.

It might be true but there are no guarantees that we will make a new ATH. It is still possible to sell for profit as long as you bought lower before the event. People should realize that 2024 is not the final year. There are still more to come with Bitcoin.

What I meant is that although there are signs pointing to an incoming ETF hype having a similar effect on the price of BTC as it did in the past, we cannot make predictions on the price action just yet, because there is not enough historical data to make a statistical prediction on this specific event. We have had only a precious few BTC ETF filings in the past so any perceived correlations may turn out to be nothing but coincidence.

But what we know to be true and tested many times is the fact that whenever there is a positive hype, there is overblown speculative price growth.


As I said, unless a patterns keeps repeating a certain amount of times, at minimum, it should not be considered a correlative pattern just yet. In fact, this last ETF filing is very different (or so they say) to the past BTC ETF filings. That alone might give one the impression that the BTC price action will be unpredictable.

When in doubt, Hodl.

Blackrock refiled it’s application already. So they are obviously very keen on getting it approved and launched. Some hedge fund stated earlier that there is a good chance it’s approved.

Will it promote a rally? Sure but what I worry is what happens after the etf goes live. Like the prior etf launches Bitcoin basically quickly reversed and went into a horrible bear market.

Maybe this time will be different, who knows.

There are only two things I see there, ETF can bring positive and negative impact to the community of the crypto industry to be honest. Because I just noticed that when the approval is close to happening, there is often a real rally in the value of Bitcoin.

And when the result is no longer good in the end, there is also a sudden rally in lowering its price in the market. they say the scenario is now, but let's see.

The problem is launching it, not really having it increase the price because that is the afterthought at this point. What people do not understand is that we are at a stage where people have to realize its not going to be that easy to launch an ETF, even the biggest companies that try it do not manage to get it done that quickly, so what happens is that we end up with a loss eventually and that's why we end up with a bad result. This means that any time any big company tries it and fails it, we end up with a drop or at least we end up with stop going up. This is why if we are going to keep failing time and time after again, why do we even attempt to do it? For the off chance that one day we may end up achieving something like this? I do not think that's a good reason to try it.

Turns out that people is already that watching about on those next news about ETF's and other correlated stuff into it on which it would really be having that kind of impression which it could neither ending up on being positive or negative basing up on such decision whether it would really be that approved or would really be rejected. We've been here before about these ETF thing but it vanish out and now we are here
once again with this kind of trend on where it is really that people or the community is really looking into because it do really make out that significant effect with these type of news or fundamentals.
Dont know if this one would really be continuing or not or would really be a long time running of waiting once again about approval or something but sure thing that if ever one for those
things would be approved or implied or whatsoever then it would really make out that significant effect on the market.

Isn't this same sort of correlation = causation you are making, but with added context? As you said, in the short-term there is unjustified price speculation to the upside, which is more than enough to lead to a sell-off as we have seen with CME launch, Bakkt as well as Pro-Shares. So there is effectively a causation for this correlation which is the price speculation to put it simply, instead of being completely random.

I'm not even talking about some short-term correction either. With CME launch it was the top of the 2017 bull market, with Bakkt is was part of a 50%+ correction, and Pro-Shares was the top of the 2021 bull market. If in each of these cases there was a minor correction or otherwise price consolidation then sure, it'd be more or less irrelevant, but as stated, I'm talking about 50%+ price corrections, admittedly after 100%+ increases.

A launch of a new ETF not dumping the price would effectively be the first time in Bitcoin's history that price hasn't dumped after a major "product" launch. This is kind of my point here. Sure you can say that the three examples I've given are completely random and unrelated to considerable price declines, but it seems like a distinct pattern so far that has yet to be broken as a concept.

I hope you are not making this into a case of correlation = causation but as history indicates, there is always a hype before or during the long-awaited event. Especially when it comes to ETFs. I cannot think of a reason why ETF launches (or similar product launches) would cause a rapid sell-off, other than to superficially push down the price.

I think, that in the long term, Bitcoin's value will go up thanks to the ETF. But in the short term, I think we will see a unjustified speculative price based on hype alone. So good news for any hodler but bad news for traders with shaky hands.

We just have to wait and see what happens. Only time will tell.

It is difficult to say where the price will go immediately after the approval of the ETF; expectations from the actions of the SEC may be too high. But an increase in the number of large players interested in investing in bitcoin will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. The number of bitcoins will not rise above 21 million, and all interested major players will not have enough bitcoins in sufficient quantities for their investment appetites. If not immediately, but the price of bitcoin will certainly rise and significantly.

This was part of my point though, while price has done well over the speculation of the ETF, which was also the case when futures products were proposed and approved in the past, is this not just buying the rumour in order to sell the news if/when it actually get's launched? I do think the speculation surrounding it could increase prices further, even all the way back to $60K if approved and a date is set, which is exactly why I'd be bearish on any ETF actually getting launched if price increases dramatically leading up to it (which is what most would expect as well). Until any launch I see upside potential, including approval and when a date is set.

I still remember a lot of 2017 futures speculation that accelerated price from $5K all the way to launch at the peak of $20K, literally the absolute top. This was about 4 months of bullish price action based on knowing the launch date of December more or less meant there would only be continued bullish speculation until the launch date, which turned out to be correct.

What was shocking for me was the market's immediate reaction to the news. The market made a big dump on everyone's faces which might imply that there were many traders who were waiting for the latest news updates on the ETF hehehe. However, this also implies that if the next news update is positive, we might witness a big pump!

It was interesting to me the Fidelity filed their ETF and then the SEC made a statement about ETF filings being incomplete and then Fidelity immediately updated their filing to show that Coinbase would be the custodian of their Bitcoin. This shows me that the SEC is in close talks with these banks and an ETF approval is right on the horizon.

I think the pattern here is that there's a lot of interest in launching Bitcoin products when the market is bullish, and it itself contributes to the bullishness, but a bull market lasts for 1-1.5 years, so it's not a big coincidence that the launches and market crashes happen around the same time.

I seriously doubt that Bitcoin investment products shape the market, the most plausible theory explaining the bull-bear cycles is that they are caused by halvenings.

Speculatively its already had an effect and scared the shorts off which in of itself is a buying effect.  A short must always end in a buy, thats the thing to remember when you hear people are short its good to remember that.  I would mostly count that immediate effect as bullish and then if the ETF is setup it will enable a wider range of involvement in the population.   Part of why they dont just allow an ETF already is apprehension on BTC regulation and all sorts of worries.
 Clearly it could be labelled an advanced ETF but to have no provision at all is not reasonable imo, every asset has risk to it especially the commodity based ETF that are already in operation have a risk.  Oil price in trade went negative for example and we use that every day, seems quite risky enough to me and its not restricted so far as I know.

There are companies who are serious enough to make this happen, unfortunately the government are restricting them from doing this and that’s why until now, its hard to have one. If this will happen in the next five years then this could be one of the reason for that pump and many are waiting for the bullish moment again, only time can tell but if you’re bullish with Bitcoin too, better to save some now.

This is indeed true on which if these ETF's would really be getting in line with the current upcoming halving event or on the year where most people been anticipating about bull run then pretty sure we might really be able to break some previous ceilings but i do agree on some points above made by some users that we've been seeing this ETF hype wayback on previous cycle on which it did really indeed make out some significant positivity towards the market but it was forgotten when the bear market hits. Now that here we are once again then if ever these ETF would really be approved then it would really be making those common positive impression
on which it would really drive the entire community into that bullish run we might be able to experience or see but im not really that expecting much because sometimes these sentiments are really just
trying out to hype the market and making these positivity to continue for luring investors in. 

Another day another large company showing their intent to create a Bitcoin ETF. the effect this is going to have on the Bitcoin market will in my opinion follow gold’s footsteps. Gold went up from around $275 per ounce to $1800 per ounce in the 8 years following its ETF’s launch. When you factor in BTC’s halvings and scarcity, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to make the statement that BTC will hit $800,000 in 2033.

(1800/275)*4*30,555.56=800K

(Get gold’s increase)*account for halvings*insert BTC price=BTC price 8 years after ETFs go live.

Those type of changes do not matter ,in fact ETF doesn't matter anymore, people acted as if that would make bitcoin be worth so much more but the reality is that we are not going to really see anything that would be as big. It is not that big because it is not going to be a great market addition to us. At first it was very important when the first talks started but the reality is that we are not going to see that type of increase all that quickly and the results will not be that easy.

I personally believe that the hype ETF has will not be a big deal and we should be considering that as a nothing at all and should be seeing it as easy option to just ignore. ETF will not make it bigger, I am sure of this but can't really provide any proof of that.

Depends on which cycle we have in my opinion, as you have said, the CME/CBoe enter when we are in peak of the bull run in 2017, pushing to a new all time high. But after that, it was all downhill for us and even if we have the Bakkt news, still it didn't have significant effect on 2019 and almost everyone here forget about Bakkt.

So maybe if there is a chance that ETF be approved next year and the timing for a block halving and then a bull run. For sure it might added a new set of FOMO and bullish case for a massive growth 2024-2025.

Apparently ARK updated their Bitcoin etf filing and made it a similar trust as blackrock and the rest of the proposed upcoming Bitcoin etfs.

What is interesting is that ARK deadline is in August. It’s before blackrock and the rest. So we should know soon if this will be a go ahead or not. Most likely if ARK is rejected, so will the rest of the etfs.

It depends. There's a significant difference between a futures ETF and a spot ETF filing. We've had a futures ETF for a while now, so price effect would be miniscule. A spot ETF from a major player on the other hand? Expect short-term bullishness.

As for the long term, it will totally depend how much demand the bitcoin ETF would actually end up getting.

Does the futures market determine the price of bitcoin or does the spot market? I am quite certain that everyone already knows the answer to this.

In any case, a spot ETF will be very bullish for bitcoin. I do not know why there are some people who refuse to understand the difference between spot and futures ETF.

Based on the number of Applicants seeking ETF approval recently, I do believe that the Bitcoin ETF this time around has more percentage chance of getting approved. Then I agree with you on the fact that, If eventually, ETF approval happens at the same time as the halving period, It is going to trigger the next bull run, but my concern here is that we may experience selling the news event may first play out. , meaning a slight dump first, then the main event, the Bull market kickstart.

I know that the approval period for the ETF application is 8 months. A few companies have applied for ETF recently, most importantly BlackRock has only one red eft transaction they have made so far. Most likely, if the supervisory authority approves at the end of eight months, you know, this time coincides with the halving, if it coincides with the same time, this parallel event can wake up the super bulls. Let's say the ETF was not approved and rejected, there is not much that can hold the bull because there will be a halving again and the supply will decrease, so the demands will come true at the right time. If the ETF application is rejected in less than eight months and the red lines increase further, this is an opportunity to buy bitcoin cheap.

I was just mentioning ETFs recently, been so long I'd completely forgotten their names -- the memories of seeing the likes of Bakkt get mentioned in 4 out of 5 articles, all that pre-euphoria about "institutional" and then when the product actually birthed, the laughable volumes.

But back to the question: are the launches correlated with price action? I think so -- but not so much a cause-effect. I think ETFs try to time when they believe sentiment is right (so less about a bear/dip but a great entry before the rally they're predicting). And whoever's advising them to make their bets doesn't seem to understand that rallies don't come so soon after a fall.

Another massive drop after another ETF launch won't be terrible news for me though

Bitcoin ETF is a kind of legal tint, and we are talking about a legal tint in the United States that will allow institutional investors to invest in the United States in bitcoin. As we note, the regulatory news reflects positively on the price, so it is expected that we will witness a rise in return.

No need to quote futures here as we already have Canadian Cryptocurrency ETFs that we can compare to the price of Bitcoin.
I expect the rise to be limited to 30% as a maximum in short term, according to the market situation and the strength of the resistance level at that time, and I expect it to be sometime in the year 2024.

I don't think that previous events were crucial for price correction, because if we start from the end of 2017 then it is easy to conclude that the bubble simply had to burst after many investors completely misunderstood what futures contracts are and how they will affect the price of BTC - and the same thing happened at the peak of 2021.

As for Bakkt, that story has been pumped for months as something big, when in fact the pandemic was already knocking on the door even though mere mortals didn't know it. In addition, the 50% drop occurred only in March when a pandemic was declared, but then a lot of bad things happened and Bitcoin was no exception.

The story around BlackRock and Fidelity (Grayscale) can have positive effects, especially if the SEC accepts their request and this acceptance is closely correlated with halving. If we take into account the time limit within which the SEC has to make a final decision (240 days) then this brings us to January 2024, just a little more than 2 months before halving.

Given that BR&F are big players and companies with over $10 trillion under management, and that it is a spot ETF, I believe that a positive decision would have a significant impact on the price of BTC. The real question is whether the average investor understands what this is really about or thinks it's just a repeat of another old story with a failed BTC ETFs.

Should we believe that it was because of the incidence of bitcoin ETF that causes the sudden rise of bitcoin just as many had porported from their assumption, things can happen the way we never expected but I don't think there's a correlation between this experience to why bitcoin is experiencing a little surge, I've heard of some people saying it was because of BlackRock moves for spot bitcoin ETF and so on but the truth is that there's nothing to show in relating these occurrences together.

Most likely if there is word that it’s approved there will be a huge rally. Because since it’s a spot etf, it means that the issuer needs actual physical bitcoins, and these are scarse on exchanges pretty much in large quantities. So there will be a bubble of some sort but a mini bubble.

Then when it launches most likely it will peak like it did the prior 2 times and start to head down wards. Unless we think that this time it will be different.

I think it is most likely that once it is launched the price will go up, now in the mid and long term I am not clear if it can add volatility because just as a lot of money can come into the Bitcoin market in a derivative way, it can also go out.


Well, it doesn't have to happen that way this time, but we shouldn't be surprised if it does. That's why I am not sure if it's going to be bullish in the long run.

I predict that ETF, at least for a short time, can raise the price by bitcoin. The question is how long this will last. Whether this will be the beginning of a bullish trend is hard to say. If all factors converge, then ETF could be the catalyst for the next bullrun. It is not easy to predict, because this is a cryptomarket in which there are many players-BTC-buyers/sellers and it is impossible to predict the actions of everyone. There is more chaos than order, sequence and regularity. In one thing, I am sure that this event should not have a negative impact, because, after all, this is positive news.

Maybe this will be the last opportunity before the Halving is reached, so there is still a chance to get Bitcoin at a cheap price.
The current price is still stable above $30k and if the price corrects then the opportunity to buy again.

There is a possibility that the same pattern will repeat itself, but of course, there are changes in each pattern following the development of current prices and market conditions. Hoping that the new ATH will be reached in Halving 2024 and that is everyone's hope of course.

ETFs can impact bitcoin prices. The positive impact can be expected in the long term, but I also tend to doubt the impact in the short term. At least a price correction is still very likely to occur in July until the end of the year, but afterwards prices can be higher.

The good and bad effects of ETFs on prices in the past may be called fluke by some, but I believe the same pattern could repeat itself ahead of the 2024 bitcoin halving. I wouldn't worry too much about another big correction in the next 6 months, but it should be considered as an opportunity to collect more bitcoin.

I don't think there will be any significant change that it can cause on the Bitcoin price, even if there is, it won't be that much again. This is as a result of it being an old move, and the first one may have created positive news on the market that attracted enough investors to rush into the market, which was what just happened a few days ago.
 
Another ETF news might just sustain the market for the main time but won't create any further bullish move since there might be only a few people trying to enter the market again.
The first ETF news is still fresh.

I think that ETFs will be a positive effect on the price for many reasons. As banks see ETFs getting approved they will rush to purchase their own Bitcoin, as it will enable them to launch their own fund and collect fees. This will lead to a feedback loop of growing ETFs bringing higher BTC prices and thus generating more revenue for their fund managers. Scary, but it shows the potential for seemingly endless gains.

So I thought I'd try and gauge sentiment over how another Bitcoin ETF will affect price in the immediate term if approved, as well as offer my own personal opinion.

I understand it's considered bullish for Bitcoin long-term, but in the short-term, I'm not so convinced it will be good for price. As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong if there were Bitcoin Futures/ETF launches that didn't negatively effect price in the short-term, as based on my current knowledge, this has been the only outcome so far.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?