Topic: Will BTC hit $10.000 in Q1 of 2014 ? (Read 7927 times)

I think it's very likely based on the growth in 2013. I don't see growth slowing down, it's speeding up.

I will be the first one here to predict that we will surpass 10k in Q1 2014.

if Bitcoin will ever be successful (whatever that might be) you have an s-curve. It start's with zero. Then it has to grow exponentially. Only that way you can come to big numbers. But exponjentiality lasts never forever. So there comes a saturation. It's the same with the rats in australia or the spreading of big newe like the earth quake in Fukushima. There is always the first who knows. Then it gets spread (news), but finally nearly everybody knows and the spreading gets saturated.

But were are we at the s-curve? At the steepest part? I don't know

I doubt we will see it over a 2 year period 

Maybe about 1% of 1 trillon $ to keep 100K price relative stable

And there is much more than 1 trillion dollars issued and circulating right now

Not each single coin has to be bought for $100k. In theory price could reach $100k with one single coin exchanging over and over again. Since Bitcoin has extreme limits (no P/E involved), it can reach extreme heights as long as fools keep buying 

but then we also need american ozcoins, which are slightly smaller.

we also need stonecoins because that just sounds cooler, even though stones measure the same thing as oz, but that doesn't matter, they just sound cool.

naturally bitcoin will increase in value by a lot, the only question is, will there be a world left to buy?

Well, 10,000,000 coins * 100K = 1 trillon $

they've got to be somewhere, or at least some of it

Why would it require an additional $ trillion?

Maybe the missing trillion $ explains this ?

I Really doubt it will hit by Q1. Its too early. But nothing is Impossible.

If it hits $10k, I see no reason why it should not hit $100k as well.

Or ... we could make it the anglosaxon way

Each bitcoin would be 12 feetcoins
Each feetcoin would be 16 ozcoins
And each ozcoin would simply be divided into 17 milecoins

...

mBTC: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MilliBit

I've said it to friends, but people need to stop thinking in whole BTC.
A truly catchy name needs to be used for something smaller than a BTC. Like Satoshis but bigger.

Why is this? Pretty simple, $1000 a BTCsounds huge for something you can't hold in your hand. But! If an bit dollar was 0.000001 BTC. You could say right now you can buy a 1000 bitdollars for $1.
Or on Amazon you are looking at an item that is normally $11 it would show 0.011 BTC. The first is easy. the second is unwieldly for most people.  (scientific/mathematical notation is all well and good for some people, but average people will prefer a simpler squeme.

So if the community wants BTCto go to $10k and beyond. The community needs to start using a smaller denominator for wider adoption to really occur.

Just my opinion. Since I think of my mining of BTCas mining satoshis. Since it's satoshis that will be meaningful in 5 years.

I've been trading bitcoins for @ 2 years,  I've seen enough not to discount the possibility.  That said, I strongly believe $10,000 in the next year is a pipe dream.

Yes, I only hold a trivial amount in BTC,  the insane amount of volatility makes for a good speculative vehicle, but a poor store of value.  Also, I strongly believe in diversification, and my investment portfolio reflects that...I would never stack all my money on one investment platform.

The bear avatar is a hold over from the second major bubble;  In the short term, I am bullish (but cautious) on the price.  That said, whether I am bullish or bearish on the market can vary from day to day, and highly depends on the current state of the market.

This is interesting. Bear avatar, trivial amount of savings invested in bitcoin, yet admits the possibility?

Likely. Very likely in fact, I'd say. It wouldn't do to crash the system without suckers to suffer for it. In fact, given the nature of debt based money they can't wait until everyone decides to cash out. What happens after, that... will be interesting.

Possible, but extremely unlikely, IMO.

if it is an S-curve (and it looks like it so far) it will decelerate when the market is saturated. The market is only pretty much saturated when everyone who wants bitcoin, has bitcoin. And as long as people realize the dollar is just worlds biggest ponzi scheme (and any other fiat is as well), they will eventually want bitcoins.

so pretty much until everyone has bitcoins, the s-curve will grow.

that is, unless there are some unexpected events, such as a bug in the code, limited scalability or the rise of a better coin. Or a large part of humanity being too stupid to understand they're putting all their trust in monopoly money and fraudulent banks.

I dont think it will hit 10k so soon but at the end of 2014 that might happen.

The US economy is huge and has ramifications on most other markets world-wide.

So, watch the US economy and more specifically the Fed. The U.S. had really upbeat economic news last week, jobs/consumer confidence on Friday and GDP earlier in the week. Ironically, when the GDP report came in with a great number (albeit from inventory buildup), the stock market tanked. Why? Because investors are heavily dependent on the Fed's QE and they felt that the positive report indicated QE may be off the table, and may have also felt the inventory build up won't be sold in Q4. Then, on Friday, the jobs numbers and confidence came in with nice prints. Which helped lift the market. Why did the good news this time lift the market? Because it appeared as though the economy may actually be on real, legit footing, so the taper thoughts may not be as bad as initially thought.

Truth is tapering would destroy the stock market. QE is artificially inflating it. I believe the reaction on Friday was interesting because it filtered, in my opinion, into the Bitcoin market dive. The US economy on (seemingly) solid footing strengthened the dollar vs. Bitcoin. I think that's temporary, and the US dollar will continue to weaken, particularly as we near another debt ceiling debate.

This isn't to say other international markets, and movements by their central banks, won't matter. They will. So eyes should be on all of economic activity and central bank policy alterations.

If I had to guess, we'll see more and more versions of international money printing and a continuation of dismal economic activity globally. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to gain momentum.

And, this isn't even talking about the growing demand as more are exposed to Bitcoin.

All in all, I think $10,000 is achievable and within 2014.

What I find interesting with the current trend is that the price have already dropped several times in the past month, noteable the US senate hearing and the china announcement but would go up in price shortly after. I admit I thought it would crash with the last weekend event, but it already have recovered even if not at a high.

I'm getting the feeling that there is a lot of people who want to buy BTC, but also think it's currently overvalued and is staying away from buying. So ironically  the high price might be a psychological hinderance for adoption, even if just in the short term. And I cannot exactly blame them, it sucks buying BTC just before the bubble pops... just ask people who bought BTC at 250 USD last April.

So true, but what else to expect when everyone here have and use Bitcoins already

Difficulty affect the mining return, and mining is the lowest cost to acquire bitcoins. If there is a projection of multiple mining equipment makers delivering large amount of hash power (during the first half of 2014), the price will rise first

And this is part of the fun.
1. You never can know at which point we currently are at the s-curve. It depends, what the full potential for Bitcoin is. Store of value among many like gold? Currency for black market? Currency for the internet? Currency for everything?
2. Bad unknown news can always drop the price to zero. The s-curve is an ideal curve for successful technologies or companies. We don't know if Bitcoin will ever get successful. As far as we are, it is not. It is just speculation (you cannot use it now, but maybe in the future). I don't mean gambling or bubble. There is always speculation. It was so with cars, the internet, 3d-printing, Mini-disc-player (flop) etc.  

Is there a thread somewhere discussing the relationship between hashrate and BTC price?



This is the first argument that I have heard that has tempered my price expectations. It makes sense to me, but upon further thought, the backbone of the transport system are the miners. For the transport system to be healthy, miners need to make a profit via block rewards and transaction fees. Related to my question above, I therefore wonder if anyone has modeled BTC value versus hashrate (probably need subtract electricity and other costs from a BTC price).

Another factor that could affect the value of the transport system is the range of value amounts (dollars, yen, or whatever) that people / institutions want to transfer. In other words, the system needs to be large enough in terms of market cap in order to absorb these amounts without causing large volatility. ("velocity" of money?) Enough maturation to achieve this situation wont happen by Q1 2014 of course, but long term, this must make the value of a BTC very higher. I also wonder how this and the miner effect could influence each other.

Cheers.

Exactly. So don't trust such simply explorations like: "So we grew 1000% the last year, and 2000% this year, so we will groß 3000% next year, and 4000% ...". And than they draw a line on a log chart, just to look more serious. And then they tell you, when the price is below that line, you should buy and above the line sell.
-> That is just stupid forecasts...

So many fucking bulls in this thread lol... but I do hope you guys are right

I bet that it will, in less than a year

And that is a good thing for the strength of Bitcoin, as long as it stays decentralized. Also, there should be more incentives for new pools and less for BTC Guild (although they are doing a better work than the mining market, I must say). It's too bad that 50BTC went wrong.

If difficulty rise 10x, that might happen, otherwise no

2 years I agree. But not Q1

Maybe not in Q1, but I expect that we'll see the first 10.000ish bubble at least within the next two years, and a sustainable 10.000+ as soon as Bitcoin becomes mainstream. IMO, the latter requires upper layers to facilitate Bitcoin adoption as a clearing and P2P banking system.

How many percent growth had Facebook, when the first (big) investors jumped in? First Facebook was worth literally nothing. Maybe 100$. Then Peter Thiel bought in for 500 000$. What growth was that?

Facebook is now worth 50 billions(?). I would say Bitcoin would be worth 1000 bill. when it is matured(but we will never know, if it will ever reach its potential). So we are atm far away from that so big jumps are possible (in percentage). 

I used to buy paid apps, before I found bitcoin and google suspended my wallet account for no good reason.

Now I don't buy them on principle.

if this were to happen i would actually start purchasing paid apps

True, the % gain in this year is much more than trend would suggest. There is not much room for rising this year or early next year

And once again that familiar feeling of amusement at the thought of it happening, mixed with a large dose of rationally thinking that that shit can't possibly happen, topped with a slice of, but what if it does ... again...!!?

Based on what happened in 2013, we would see:
$  1,330 Jan 1
$  2,050 Feb 1
$  3,450 Mar 1
$10,400 Apr 1
$11,500 May 1
$12,925 Jun 1
$  9,200 Jul  1
$10,600 Aug 1
$14,400 Sep 1
$14,200 Oct 1
$20,300 Nov 1
$95,000 Dec 1

60-150k within 12 months.

Imo it couldn't get that high. I will be max 2500 USD. But it just my own opinion

True enough, but do we know how fast these things grow at different stages of the game? Do we have anything to compare to? It still all comes down to supply and demand, nothing we post here will really change that.

Seriously guys a 30,000% gain in one year isn't enough for you? It has to be 300,000%? You are being filthy greedy. Give it a rest. We are already dangerously above the exponential growth trend as it is with two major rallies within 7 months of each other!

When bitcoin fell from $1200 to $600 recently, the market cap declined from about $14 billion to about $7 billion.  According to your statement above, $7 billion dollars must have exited the market.  Of course this was not the case if you think about it.  

My guess is that it would take more like $25 billion entering the market to increase the market cap to $100 billion.  If bitcoin investors are weaker hands than I expect it would take more than $25 billion, and if they are stronger hands than i expect, it would take less than $25 billion dollars.  

"market cap" doesn't really exist. Not all coins in existence are available on the market. If sellers stop selling at less than $10k then the price will rise to $10k. This could happen with no additional money in the market.

it does matter because if it is enough to gather 10b$, it can gather 100b$

Say 100 million people each have for $1000 in bitcoin. With 12 million coins available the minimum value would be over $4500. That's a tiny fraction of the planet and a tiny amount of money per person. And that's just the theoretical minimum, it doesn't account for the subjective value people place on it which would drive the price higher. We haven't seen anything yet. Six digits are entirely achievable, realistic, and sustainable. Especially when fiat really begins to crash.

On the short term, just look at the trend. Minimum tenfold increase/year. That's how fast new and revolutionary technology grows and we are still in the very, very early beginning stages.

what does that matter? the guy think it will happen in 3 months or so. bitcoin is much more risky than any other asset or investment. many people are standing by the sidelines waiting to see what happens.

ok

But what's 100b$ for a payment tool the size of a planet ?

extremely unlikely i'd say. when people measure btc's increase in terms of ratios, they think "it's only 10x of what it currently is." but people seem to forget that 10x of where we currently are.. is a really big market cap. it means at least 100 billion more dollars need to enter the market.

exactly, the exponential increase will stop at some point, but it's not at all unlikely we're going to see $100,000 or $1,000,000 or even $10,000,000

yes, i'm fully aware that $1,000,000 per BTC would put us in a trillion market cap, but there's a lot of money floating around so it's not as unrealistic as you may think initially. It could happen by 2020ish (or earlier or later, it all depends on what stage of the S curve we are in and how long the curve will continue).

look at it this way, there will only be a couple of people EVER that will hold >1BTC and even less that have >10,000BTC, currently there's only a handful of people that has $1,000,000 and even less that have a billion. So, if bitcoin becomes one of the most important currencies (and there's really no reason for it not to become a significant world currency), it's not unlikely that we would have bitcoin billionaires and millionaires. There are already some, but still there's way less bitcoin millionaires (in $) compared to millionaires in stock markets.

Money is so 20th century !

BTC will not die even with very high crash. BTC does not care about price, Bitcoin is useable at any price

Where are we on the s-curve?   I think we are very low and the market is far from saturation.   Assume all smart phone holders might be a good top end number for adoption (although M-Pesa and such are still key)

That is crazy that is insane, get a life, I mean btc will never hit that number, that you can not even read.

I love BTC but i am more realistic I think over 1 year BTC will die

seems about right

Q1 of 2014 not likely, my guess is that BTC will be around $10k at the end of 2015.

I would forecast this
$1200 Jan 2014
$2000 Mar 2014
$4000 Oct 2014
$5000 Dec 2014

Based loosely on what happening in 2013

End of Q2 at the earliest.  We could see $5000 by the end of Q1 maybe, but more likely $3000.

But storing your own money isn't a reason to use it - people have a low level of confidence when it comes to financial transactions. I would say that at least 80% would prefer to have someone else do the hard work, and offer 100% security while they are at it!

;-)

I think managing and storing your own money is huge part. Bank fees are so silleh

Bitcoin is not only a transport. It is also a perfect store of value!!!

gotta agree this is what I was showing my friends who were wondering where it was going. I said this weekend will probably test the new bottom for the year and will wedge us for support to some new ath but I am not predicting 10k.. I did predict 1k by June and look what bitcoin did to me

My guess is that BTC will be over $10k at the end of 2014.

This is simply fantastic.

you forgot reptilians

This is exactly what I have been telling people - BTC is the transport, not the end result, although it does have some basic value in it as a store.

What people are also not seeing is that it isn't people buying 1 BTC for $10K, they will be buying 0.1 BTC for $1000 - knowing that its still worth $1000 for the internet sale they are arranging later that day.  Its long term value will be irrelevant to people when it becomes mainstream!

This is why I don't see it having a long term value - much like Domain names were going for $100k+ during the dotcom days and today, people are smarter in how they buy their online company names.

I love exploration like that. Bitcoin was at 13$ one year ago. So the price is risen 6600%. So therefore the in one year the price is at 50 000$. An by the end of 2015 we see 350 000$. And guess what we see in 2040  

Oh yeah, from dec 2011 to dec 2012 it were only 400%?

Hm let's see:
Dec 2009: 0$, so we skip that.
Dec 2010: 0.24$
Dec 2011: 3.5$
Dec 2012: 13$
Dec 2013: 900$

So we draw a regression line. Or let's just calculate: 0.24*(growing rate)^3 = 900$
-> 1500%
So:
Dec 2014: 13,500$
Dec 2015: 200,000$
Dec 2020: 150000000000$
Dec 2050: you get the idea


-> and this is exactly what rpietila did. I think he also never heard of a S-curve.

Why not?  If major vendors like Amazon or Google or eBay start accepting btc's today, all they have to do is immediately exchange to fiat.  In that instant volatility is irrelevant, btc is just serving as a proxy to the dollar for a nanosecond or so.  But the benefits to the company (perception of being in the vanguard) and to btc would be immense.

I have been predicting a major ecosystem announcement for about a week now, we are due anytime I think.  Lots of guys in garages burning the midnight oil on btc projects as we speak.

There is no difference.... they are still paying 10k for 1 BTC

I leave captioning to the crowds

Each spike contributes to greater penetration and greater adoption.
Merchant and individual use continues to grow.
This provides the infrastructure to respond to the acute events that will occur in the global economy over the next few years.
I suspect bitcoin value rise will be gradual with spikes as new disasters effect financial markets until a fiat flee into bitcoin becomes a race, rather than a theoretical idea.

In order to get to 100 you need people willing to pay 100 per bitcoin. It might be possible in the very long term, but I don´t think this is going to happen in such a short timeframe.

I'm going with the tenfold increase every year theory, personally. This has proven to be conservative recently but this way I don't end up disappointed if it's "only", say, a thirteen-fold increase. So Q3 maybe?

This is the sort of thing that will really drive price up, yes. And yeah it will happen. Cyprus was just a test case, now that our Great Leaders know we will accept it, it is going to happen over and over with increasing frequency and severity until it becomes the new normal.

makes me think the opposite. We knew it was growing a bit too fast much like other bubbles, and a crash was likely, yet it hasn't crashed too hard or too fast... Short term traders got scared, but plenty of people believe $1000 and higher is a reasonable price. I'm sure there's fat whales continually buying.

the next bubble's gonna be REALLY exciting

look at this posts
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0;topicseen

I'm curious about your opinion over another 5 days.

Or you need people willing to pay $10 for 1mBTC.

The problem here is that 10K levels would imply a big adoption but to get that high BTC must go really volatil. I see a conflict here: Bitcoin could reach 10K if amazon starts accepting it BUT that wont happend if value keeps crazy jumping (and it will if somehow gets to 10K on 2014 Q1)

In order to get to 10.000 you need people willing to pay 10.000 per bitcoin. It might be possible in the very long term, but I don´t think this is going to happen in such a short timeframe.

Santa on a Choo Choo motherfucking train 

Need a Meme for this !

Santa Clause rally incoming!! hehe

$10k by xmas. Now that would be funny.

No way so soon. Maybe at end of 2014, but I doubt this as well.

I don't think it will...

Then again when BTC was at $50 I didn't think it would ever pass $100

Few months later... *$1,000*

 

Of course it's possible.  All it takes is another pronounced depression of traditional investment vehicles like stocks and real estate to drive money into BTC.

No way. The network (exchanges, etc) are nowhere near mature enough to support a $100 billion+ economy.

Even now they all self destruct whenever there's even a moderate amount of trading going on.

So even if people wanted to put an extra $90 billion in (and I'm sceptical that they will so soon), it can't happen just yet.

5 days ago I would have said yes, right now, definitely not.

My own view is that it will reach $5k within 12 months.

Its just frustrating having no money to throw at it, although, I know if I was borrowing money, I would have wasted it on various alt coins! ;-)

yes...but too late

i new i should have bought 20 btc when it was close to 500 dollars today

The way things have been going; it would surprise me if we don't reach 5 digits before the end of 2014.

Will it hit in Q1 of 2014.  No.

Will it hit $10K, I think that's inevitable , when exactly is anyone's guess.  It could very well hit 10k by the end of the year(2014) assuming continued adoption of bitcoin.  i.e. imagine when/if google started accepting BTC in their google play store...

It depends. If it does, I think it will be on the US and not dependant on China driving up the prices again (since the announcement). I doubt it unless some major mainstream adoption happens.

I was reading the other day that there was a big spike in value of BTC when the Cyprus nonsense was going on.  So, if you think there might be any more destabilizing events, or more confiscations of wealth, BTC might go further up.

The common folks have not yet mass-invested in bitcoin and will not do so until they understand the advantages of it. But right now hardly anyone explains it to them.

depends on many things;

$, oil, gold, silver, nwo....

I watched an interview where the respondent said the 1st wave of investors were the common folk, 2nd wave which has already taken place are the VCs(venture capitalists), 3rd wave which he predicted would be next year are the Wall Street banks. Given a that few banks already have stakes in BTC and that only 1/10 people know of bitcoins so far. The growth potential is great.

Just my opinion.

If someone could give an opinion with their rationale that would be great.

Hello !

At this moment the price of BTC is established around of value $1000.

This is something that can't be ignored. (by the banks and business media)

It is possible that the price to raise up to $10.000 in the Q1 of 2014 ?