Topic: Will The FED pivot? (Read 708 times)

Hopefully the FED pivot but they haven’t indicated that they will yet. They said they will continue to increase if they need to. I was too young to have a real interest in 2008 during the financial crisis but when they decided to pivot, was it the start of a bull market for stocks & other assets?

Basically will pivoting lead everything to go up?

i think they will stop raising rates next June because not only has inflation come down, but they have already reached their initial target of 5%-5.25%.  but I'm not in a hurry to cheer even if they stop raising rates because we don't know how long they will keep rates at that high level. if they want to maintain them for the next 6 months or a year, that will be much worse than we think. but it's good to see the market reacting positively to this news, bitcoin is back above $28k.

USA CPI Data Update:
CPI:
4.9% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.0% YoY, 0.4% MoM

Core:
5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

---

Its a great news guys, the inflation is falling gradually if not drastically. Now, hopefully the fed wont raise its interest rates the next month. Markets are already celebrating today's data anyways.

Or we take that with a grain of salt, and then have a slight 1% increased in 24 hours. But I do agree that again, we should be skeptics when Powell open his mouth with regards to the interest rates.

For sure he knows his words are powerful and that's why he try to be as neutral with his words. But we need definite answer though, if the US economy is looking great or on the brink again. But for him, it's fine they are doing great, Lol, but sooner or later it might bite him back with this kind of statements.

Update: Just in, The FED increases interest rates again by 25bps for this month.
Powell's speech: Neutral. You can't trust anymore of this man's words anyways. From 75bps to 50 to 25. Atleast we are slowing down with time.

---

Market reaction: Sideways till now.

I'm thinking they'll still do 25 point raise today. Though its definitely possible no raise today and then go back to 25 point raise in May, given the several banks that collapsed this month.

I think after today (whether there is a raise or not) we'll only see one or two more 25 point raises before they stop and hold the rate at until next year, unless some economic things start failing,g like more bank collapses or something, in which we could see the interest rate start dropping earlier like by end of this year.

It probably would make the most sense to not raise the rate today cuz of the banking collapses. And then do one more in May. And then by hopefully by June inflation is under 5% and they figure they can just coast on the ~5% interest rate through end of the year and let inflation gradually fall.



UPDATE:
Ah yes they did indeed do a 25 point raise as expected. Though they took out a line in their report about "ongoing rate increases" so we're definitely getting near the top of the rate. Seems like maybe one more 25 point raise in May is expected and they may stop after that. Good news. Bitcoin has seesawed a lot today, was going up this morning then dropped hard likely just on people trying to manipulate the price leading up to the Fed announcement. Good news though. I bet we'll see further upside in BTC price in the near future.

This is what I expected. The bond market has been predicting this and historically speaking the bond market has always been the best predictor of what the fed will do. I think this is likely to be the last interest rate hike of the cycle. It’s clear that going higher from here will cause a long recession and while that would make inflation appear to be under control, it would be a disaster for the economy. They need to pause now.

The FED interest rate decision today (just in a few hours), will be most exciting to watch, especially after all the most recent banks crisis.
BTC is already trading above the year highs before the data right now. Anticipation is high this time.

---

I will edit this post after the interest rates are out.

---

EDIT: The fed raises interest rates by 25bps.
Reaction: Neutral. I expected no rate hikes this time but still okay.

Ideally the FED will not want to pivot, it will want to hold not just now but this entire year and this action is the least they want to in order to ensure inflation is headed off.    Whether the FED hand is forced by wider reasons is another matter, ultimately I dont think the FED is in control of what plays out but near term they can keep rates 'high' and its not a big deal.
  Long term USA national debt is too expensive at a rate at 5% or above, it will be forced into emergency measures to repay and reduce large fiscal budgets.  I think there is trouble in that real feedback beyond intentions and planned policy.

Update:
New CPI data just in:
US CPI:
6.4% YoY, 0.5% MoM
Forecasted: 6.2% YoY, 0.5% MoM

US CPI Core:
5.6% YoY, 0.4% MoM
Forecasted: 5.5% YoY, 0.4% MoM

---

Unfortunately we got a higher than expected readings this time, now gotta see how the FED reacts to this in the next rate hike meeting. So far the markets are holding but hope they keep holding up the following week. After this data, Im 50-50 on both sides. Maybe they will raise rates by 50bps on the next one?

Update: Just in, As expected, the FED hikes rates by 25bps, but since the market is already pumped, we didnt get much reaction here at 23k.
But the FED is slowly changing their sentiments it seems, good for the upcoming yearly trend if this continues like this.

Just an update to this thread,
New CPI report just came in today

US CPI:
6.5% YoY, -0.1% MoM
Forecasted: 6.5% YoY, -0.1% MoM

US CPI Core:
5.7% YoY, 0.3% MoM
Forecasted: 5.7% YoY, 0.3% MoM

---

Next Fomc meeting at 1st feb expecting 25bps hike instead of 50, we are getting on track guys!

I would even dare to say that the war directly or indirectly affected more than a billion people, because the EU alone has a little less than 500 million people, and what about all those poor countries that depended even more on cheap energy sources and grain that came from Russia and Ukraine. I think that the West should have been much firmer and more determined towards the war and given Ukraine what it was asking for so that it could defend itself and return the occupied territories - because people are fighting like lions against a far superior enemy. Give them what they want and I'm sure they will end the war within 6 months.

---

You mean some pro-Russian leadership that will turn a blind eye to everything that happened and give Russia 20% of Ukraine? That would not be any leadership, but a group of traitors - if the Russians want to end the war, they just need to remove the crazy emperor from the throne.


Mt.Gox is news that is obviously abused by many in the sense that the compensation payments will cause a new earthquake on the crypto market, and we know that the payments will not happen all at once, and that in addition to Bitcoin, it will be possible to request payments in fiat or even an altcoin.

Rates do not matter, because it means that the general economy would recover if the rates recover, and by 2024 I am pretty sure that the rates will be at a normal place, or even if it is high compared to past, we will at least get used to it by then.

However, none of that matters because when there is halving, bitcoin becomes more valuable, so even if the market is not recovered by then, it will still cause bitcoin to go up because it is now more valuable and the amount of bitcoin we mine per day will go down, meaning both less resources available but also higher price to make sure miners are happy. Both of those combined would make it go up no matter what type of market we are in, it will just take longer for it to show on the prices.

Well, they're doing it out of response of what's happened recently. It's unavoidable that rates will go up, and continue to do so. That's how our money system works worldwide. The UK has already done it, but even more significantly which resulted in a massive crash of the pound. The US are at least doing it at a much slower rate, to try to assure the value of USD. Ultimately, we all know that this slow approach only delays the inevitable, but it should lessen the blow for a lot of people.

In other parts of the world people were paying $1 for x item, and now they're paying $1.80. That's a overnight change, whereas the approach the US are taken should at least gradually increase the cost of living. I imagine they're doing it in direct response of other countries.

But, the rates have to go up, otherwise the government risk losing out significantly which they aren't going to do. So, this will continue to happen, and recessions are going to continue to happen. Bitcoin should be less effected due to its deflationary manner, but anything that's subject to inflation will continue to be subject to that. We can't really avoid that.

It seems that the current condition of the Bitcoin price continues to dump. It's not looking good after the little pumps of the previous few days. Even the price has returned to $ 16.5k or reduced by 4.5% in the last week. I think this condition will continue until the end of the year. In 2023 there will be a new start, and we will see the future of crypto between the global economic crisis and the recession of 2023. Will Bitcoin be able to survive it all?

I think that unemployment rate in Jan and Feb of 2023 will show that true pain especially due to massive after Christmas lay offs. Will this be taken into account by the FEDs? I doubt but I still hope ...

More and more people are starting to publicly call for an end to these rate increases. Unfortunately for all of us, the Fed is responsive to data, they are absolutely horrible at predicting things. So bad in fact it’s hard to believe it isn’t done on purpose so they can manipulate investments and grow their own balance sheet. When will they decide they’ve inflicted enough pain? Who knows. I just know they’d stop now if they cared about the people on main st.

Thank you for your thoughtful response and I am sorry to hear about your brother. 

There maybe a fourth scenario concerning Russia vs Ukraine, I have heard rumors that Ukraine may get a new leadership and peace negotiations will resume meaning there will be a (hopefully) win-win situation(or call it loose-loose) but the ultimate outcome would be to end the conflict sometimes in 2023. Meaning a possible rally for bitcoin.

Assuming that 2023 will look like 2019 when Q2 had nearly 160% rise in btc price, your prediction that btc will start to rise sometimes in April does make sense. However, sometimes in June Mt. Gox will likely release some btc as well so that April - May rally could be short and will likely resume in Q4.

Just my 2 cents

 

 

Yeah, it's both combined, and a few other factors on the side. The war has impacted the lives of millions that aren't even directly involved in the war. In the UK food prices have gone up as a direct reaction to the war, as well as energy prices. The governments around the world are doing what I'd call damage control. They know that a massive recession is coming, but they're trying to control at what speed that'll occur. Recessions typically last a long time, multiple years, and sometimes decades. There's an argument that we're still recovering from past recessions, and therefore there's a compounding effect each time.

This one looked particularly grim after the pandemic, but as well as the war. So, by increasing interest rates, and what not steadily instead of all at one time; reduces the immediate impact. However, it probably does prolong the recession though.

As much as the pandemic has left its mark on the world economy, for me at the moment it is much more important that there is a raging war in the middle of Europe, and regardless of what some will say that it is between Ukraine and Russia, we all know that the stakes in this war are much higher. Although inflation has hit the whole world, Europe has undoubtedly lost cheap gas and oil from Russia, which means that it will suffer the most until it adapts.

So regardless of whether "they" have learned something from past economic crises, this is about something that is much more complicated to solve, and as time goes on it will be even more difficult. In any case, I can agree that difficult years await us, but we must adapt or it will be even more difficult.

Just expect a rather bumpy road for as long as the recession might last, which could be quite a few years. I think that's the most realistic expectation to have. It probably won't be on 2008/2009 levels since they should've learned from that, but I wouldn't be absolutely sure of that.

I've been saying for a while this likely will be one of the biggest recessions that a lot of us has seen, and I don't think I've changed that thought process. I just think we'll likely deal with it better. The government seem to want to lessen the blow, and therefore not cause a sudden crash by steadily increasing the interest rates this time around, which will help with that panic induced crashes.

That is only for now but it was stated that the rates will increase the next time. Also, I think there is no way that fed rates will only go down. There are times where it will go down but there's also a time where it will go up again. It's still possible for some things to return to normal because not all things depend on the fed rates.

By the way, how can you say that 2024 is going to be a good thing for all? Is it because of the btc halving? But if the rates won't normalize, I think the price of BTC is still going to be affected but yeah a fall on the price of the cryptos shouldn't discourage us all. Rather it should give us a motivation to buy for more. Time will come that their value are going to recover and pump again.

Well I am not the dullest tool in the shed or the sharpest.

As you can see there is a website devoted to clocking the possibilities of going bankrupt for long term care companies.

I never would have thought to apply it to clock fed rates.

I found it last year when my brother in law got sick.

I used it because I was checking on genworth to figure out if my brother-in-law would be able to keep collecting his long term care insurance.

As I kept checking it the bankruptcy dropped from 45% to 32% and the company became more solvent. In time with the fed rate increases.

Did my research an realized close to three trillion in value is held by long term care companies in usa.

In the last year the industry has recovered 15% in value.  about 450 billion in value gained.

I am sure others check that website to figure out the health of insurance companies like genworth.

The are smart and skilled at guessing the when companies become safer or safe from going bankrupt.

From what I can see these companies could use till June and keep loading up better bonds.

I lean to The June date not the April date for the fed to pivot.

So I believe rally could start in April-May time frame as a response to guessing pivot starts in June.

Lots of outside factors can make all of that wrong.
ie Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 has a sudden turn.

Ukraine wins Putin dies Russia gives all of Ukraine back = monster rally.
Ukraine loses Putin becomes more powerful = big ass slump
Ukraine and Russia drags on for a few more years sideways sideways sideways.

I agree that sometimes between April to June 2023 Feds will flip. Overall, 2022 looks like 2018 and if you check 2019, btc started to rise at the end of Q1 but mostly went up in Q2.

One thing though... if Feds flip in April, shouldn't the market react earlier like 2-3 months before that due to insider information, so we will see btc go up sometimes in February  - April? (2-3 months before the flip in April - June)? What do you think?

As I have said in multiple posts the fed has found a way to bail out all the USA long term care polices.

How simple raise rates.

If you realize just how much the long term care companies were in the hook back in Jan 2022

and how much they recovered in one year it is pretty obvious that they will continue to boost bond yields which are pretty much the only thing long time care policies invest in.

my brother in law has dementia. he has a policy with genworth a major long term care policy company.

they were rated to have a 45% shot of going bankrupt december 2021
they are now rate to have a 32% shot of going bankrupt december 2022.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.61478856


read this post and you can see how poorly genworth did with low bond interest the 2019 to 2021 time frame

read how they did 2021 to 2022 with high bond rates.

hint they went from 99 billion to 114 billion

there are 14 companies like them.

all were next to dead december 2021.

all are coming back due to the feds actions in 2022.

I see at least two more hikes to continue to help the ltc industry.

maybe four hikes.

If you check the top long term care company ratings and compare dec 2021 to 2022 you can see this was a huge bailout for them.

btw.  these rates are a huge bailout for federal workers starting jan 2023 and social security payouts.

they will likely not stop.

keep checking on genworth at this website

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GNW/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I suspect that rates will rise and improve their bottomline for as much as June 2023 .

Keep in mind there are about 14 companies that are like genworth and everyone of them is getting this “help”

so maybe april but likely june  we flip.

This is not the reason. The dollar index is mostly the euro. The index accounts something like 60% euro and the yen is only 10% of that.

It’s pretty much old news at this point. The stock futures crashed but later the stock market rallied anyways. I think most people knew they would increase the yield control curve anyways because it was not possible to sustain 25 bps.

It will be a larger effect if they extend it to 100bps in the next few weeks.

Crypto went up on the BOJ moves because it lowered the dollar slightly I think that it gives some weight to the possible continued decline in Dollar index since YEN is part of that.  The larger part on FED actions is they will never meet or counter inflation properly, the intended course is to weaken Dollar every year by at least 2% which adds up to alot.  They will more then achieve that mark, we are not presently, past or future anywhere near to hard monetary standards.   Long term the idea of pivot or not isnt going to be significant, its only balancing speculative sentiment at the moment by some fear of harder money but that shadow will never land.

What you say feels true and real but if it's so obvious why does the majority of people ignore this opportunity?

We all know that FED will pivot. We all know the stock market is manipulated by the FED to look worse than it is and discourage investors.

We all know they are printing money that makes the dollar worth less and less each year.

Why do people dance into their music, panic when they want them to panic, sell when they want them to sell, keep exchanging valuables into dollars when the dollar is pumping? Looks counterproductive at the very least.

It seems to me that all of this data is artificially created, because with the amount of dollars printed in 2020-2021, inflation should have been a lot more than the FED claims. And their fight against inflation, when the entire stock market collapsed, is also a special manipulation, which benefits not the economy but a certain group of people. So anything can happen in 2023, it's hard to guess.

I think it is important to note that it's not going up as much as it used to, and it's going to be lower and lower and eventually we will reach a world where it's going down instead of going up. In that world everything will get back to normal, maybe not today and maybe not even in 2023, but by 2024 everything should be normal.

This means that any investments you made so far in 2022 wasn't for nothing, if you kept it, and if you continue to buy more in 2023 as well then when the time for normalization in economy comes then you will make a lot of profit. I personally believe that long term profit is achievable and on the horizon, we just need to be a bit more patient.

Yeah, and referencing the previous posts a few days before that, I'm even more convinced that the Fed wants everyone to feel the massive hurt first. They want this century's great depression to happen. I do see it as a positive if really it's to finally bring about UBI again for US citizens -- really shouldn't have waited 50 years to table the discussion again.

So I don't think we'll see massive hikes, but they're probably going to keep another half point before tapering it off -- pretty sure we should be ready for at least half of 8 rate changes to be positive, and the remainder to just be unchanged.

Impossible to say with certainty more than the next adjustment...

It’s hard to say, almost impossible.

Just now we had the BOJ raise the yield curve control to 0.5% and it tanked the equities and bonds, crypto went up surprisingly. So this is proof that the fed won’t pivot.

However we got crazy inflation, low unemployment , and 2023 economy will be very weak and if CPI drops to like 3% most likely they should pivot.

Impossible to tell.

There are so many different factors that affect the market, you cannot rely on the Fed announcement to predict the direction of bitcoin. The news that the Fed cut interest rates is not big enough compared to what the market is facing with Fuds on Binance. People care more about this than the Fed rate, if Binance really collapses, nothing will save the market. In addition, bitcoin is unpredictable, the movement of bitcoin does not follow any rules, and it is not good news that bitcoin always increases and vice versa.

Correct. However, powell was saying he will do anything he can to get the inflation down to 2%. But Im sure he got no idea and will change his statement anytime as he keeps doing each time.

---

BTC traders should get rid of him and stop reacting to fed too much hopefully. Up only mode 2023!

One day it looks like they’re going to slow their cuts, the next it sounds like they’re going to continue for some time… This is why you can’t be a trader and are better off taking a long term approach. I personally think that we aren’t going to see rates go as high enough to cause a massive crash from here, and we appear to be nearing those levels, so I think any rate hikes in 2023 will be quarter point hikes and probably only in the first half of the year.

Update: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% just now, and laid out the carpet for a slower pace of hikes ahead, but signaled that rates will have to move higher than previously projected as inflation remains well above target.

---

Source: Investing.com

---

BTC and stocks reacted not so great even tho 50bps was expected by everyone

Considering it looks like it's better than expected, I am not saying that we won't have an increase, but it's true that it may not be 75 points, maybe 50? Something like that.

It is not really great for the markets though, I mean we are talking about a situation where it's still rising, meaning people will still make more money from interest, and that means money going into banks, and that means less money in the markets. That will continue to be the case until we reach to a point where they start to drop the interest rate, doubt that would be easy, so that means we are going to see the market be like this for a while until people are used to it at least.

I didn't miss it, the price since the CPI announcement until now is only $18k, and now it's a little under $18k, haven't touched $19k yet.
Despite the FUD around binance, the market has recovered slightly with a lower-than-expected CPI, and tonight we get news of the last rate hike of the year. If everything goes as expected, the Fed only increases 0.5% then I believe we will have a rally that lasts until the end of the year. And a price of $19k as you mentioned or higher than $20k is possible.

Yeah, short of saying that the recession has somewhat stopped and inflation slowing down. 7.1% versus the previously expected 7.3%.

Sot it's good news to us, as we have seen the price is jumping around to $19k with this announcement.

Lots of FOMO so let's see if this is sustainable at least at the end of the year.

Investors are cheering today’s inflation reading as a sign the fed is going to pivot and start lowering rates sooner than previously expected. I think that might be a bit premature but if the market is cheering and prices are going up I can’t complain. I think the fed is going to do a better job with their do-over of the 2008 attempt at a soft landing. Hopefully the inflation this time around will keep a Lehman moment from happening.

I don't think bitcoin usually reacted much to interest rate increases, or rather it was short-term. This time, of course, the reaction was positive, and the surprising thing is that bitcoin reacted much earlier than the data was announced. But I think there is a lot of other bad news in the crypto market that affects the price. Today, for example, the claims against Binance started.

we can only hope in the next press con of Pal. a lot of users above are doubting this could happen. but one thing is for sure about this raising interest rate, people hate it. they are tired of having 2-3 jobs to meet ends. the news about 7.1% is believed to have made this BTC price to roll up.

meanwhile crypto congress committee is about to take place related to FTX investigation and its not normal to see BTC price go up instead while they are attacking cryptocurrency. FED is happy to see SBF in prison and not able to testify to congress. yay! and for holders to be happy as well, they better low interest rate too. double yay!

Guys there's an update from US, The CPI data just came in lower than expected!! (7.3% expected vs 7.1% actual)! Bullish for markets!
This means the Fed will definitely not raise interest rates by 75bps this time, the tightening policies are working out finally. This time maybe 50bps and soon to 25bps in the upcoming months to come?!
BTC will rock to 30k with ease imo if fed pivots or even slows down with those nasty hikes ! 🙂

I HIIIIGHLY doubt that. They probably already decided to up a notch, not a whole lot but a bit, and I am guessing that its going to just keeping going up for a while longer as well, like the next one too, just smaller and smaller measure. Until everything is back to normal with inflation, there is literally no reason for them to keep it lower, they should be increasing it more and more so that the more money goes back to banks the better. Eventually inflation will go down, and they will lower it, and people will use that to invest again. That is how it has been for a looong time, doubt that it would change anytime soon.

Even if the FED raises rates, its the pace at which they have raised which matters overall.   A raise of say quarter percent would be perceived as positive overall.   Stock markets but not all markets are future facing which means they anticipate mostly the beginning of the end to the rises rather absolutely requiring no further rise in rates.
   Add in that inflation itself is some adjustment to the cost of money, Ive no doubt that Dollar will continually lose value for this decade and the next.   A future cost to currency which is lower then the value now invested gives bias to stocks and performing assets.   However all of this is speculation, every shock turn in the road will upset the market but a foreseeable negative is not quite as bad.  I see some relief occurring in these next 12 months, it could start now; the emphasis being on assets which do perform.

Some times I'm also forced to think this way when the government policy is always harsh on the people and they won't make things easy for the masses to benefit from but only to get increased income. The government concern more is how to increase there revenue and they make excuses for using it to finance government projects but we know that the amount that is embezzled is far greater than how much going into project. The outcome of the FED is to increase interest rate and that will cause more poverty.

Elon's tweet seems to ignore that Fed has said it will raise rates, just that they will dampen the rate, though the months ahead will still see hikes. So it's not so much a question of if rates will rise, but for how long and how hard -- Fed seems to suggest it will relent, if inflation does.

Bitcoin's just below 17k, which surprised me, thought the suits would be against shorting when inflation should be slowing down.


I had a suspicion of this as well, that they want to see a recession. The middle class especially, and not just in US, looking at my own spending. They're not exactly hurting enough by inflation. I'm cutting back on a lot of things, even watching the energy meter more than normal, but still able to maintain most of the family lifestyle. I think they need more people -- the middle class especially -- to really hurt.

Sadly, it's always the majority who will bear the brunt of that but a move towards universal income could be worth it (to me).

Many want a pivot for many reasons.

For example say you want to buy a home. Do you buy now or wait 6-12 months when homes can be cheaper or event rates can be lower.

For speculators they want the fed to pivot because all assets including cryptos will rally. It will mark the bottom of the cycle.

I didn't know Elon is a world-class economist. I thought he is making cars and manipulating markets using his twitter account. Why you care about his opinion in this field?

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
Market expects +75 at 21.8% and +50 at 78.2%

0% for pivot this month. I guess its 0% chance for next 2-3 months.

Why you care about pivot at all?

It is impossible to expect the Fed to stop raising interest rates , inflation in the US is falling, but it is still very high, so it is inevitable that interest rate hikes will occur. But the question is whether they will go up sharply as usual or will they start lowering rates gradually, that's what we're talking about.

But in my opinion, the rate hike no longer has too much impact on the market, the November rate hike did not cause bitcoin to drop as sharply as before. While the rate hike has not negatively impacted the market, with the world economy negatively affected, it is hard to expect bitcoin to recover.

They are not going to pivot. If there is a pivot it will be sometime in the summer. All that was discussed during the last FOMC minutes is they are slowing the pace of the hikes and not pivoting.

So far inflation is still high. PPI came in high last Friday. The hikes are working but it will take time. So far it helped a little. It doesn’t help that the job market is just way too strong. So we don’t have any reasons to pivot just yet.

Really up to what the report maybe,

- if it sound good, then obviously all market will have like a good short term run.

- if the news is negative, probably we will see the price < $17k.

Last month's CPI report though seems to be positive if I'm not mistaken and so we have some short term bump in the price.

If the recession can get worse as Elon Musk said in his tweet, I don't think the increase in the price of Bitcoin will also happen so easily and may even go in place by not increasing to a higher price than now. Personally I hope that the FED will not raise their interest rates again by the end of this year because doing so will trigger the impact of a global recession which may be very large. Let's hope that nothing bad can happen after the report is published in the near future.

The fed always goes too far. I don’t expect this time will be any different. Even though rates have started to come down and home affordability has become the worst it’s been in my lifetime, I expect they will raise rates again. The language will probably be positive as they’ll signal increases may be done, but I believe they want to cause a recession. You have to remember the government’s overall goal is to inflict enough financial pain to get citizens on board with universal income. A soft landing doesn’t move towards that goal.

The most important data of the month is upcoming on the 13th of December, THE US CPI REPORT,
Jerome Powell gave hopes of pivoting in his last speech, however Elon musk's recent tweet is concerning. Everything depends on this report and then the FED's interest rate decision on 15th.
What will be the impact on the price of BTC after the CPI report?
Short term guesses? Just a few days remaining!