Topic: Will UASF affect Bitcoin ? (Read 1086 times)

Quote from: iamTom123 on June 26, 2017, 04:14:23 AM

First of all , for those who don't know what UASF means : "User Activated Soft Fork"

"UASF is short for "User Activated Soft Fork". Its specification is described here.
It tries to force the activation of SegWit which is currently (~30%) unable to reach the required activation threshold (95%).
Between August 1st and November 15th, UASF nodes will consider all blocks invalid that do not explicitly signal support for SegWit, thus creating a fork. Within that fork, support for SegWit will be 100% which in turn triggers the activation threshold of SegWit (95%)."
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/64jky9/what_is_uasf/

If soft fork happens successfully, then price willl rise , if not , btc price will fall hardly .
It's a gamble

What do you think ?

The UASF is one of the highlight events that are being waited by the majority and big bitcoin holders, players and exchanges. If UASF will be implemented it will bring bitcoin into another level. With UASF activating Segwit, bitcoin may improved a lot and that will become stable since transactions will be confirmed faster. If this activation will succeed we will hope to see that many big companies will be attracted to accept bitcoin and integrate it into their system. This will make bitcoin leap and we will expect a possible major inflation when that time comes.

If Segwit activation will not be implemented we can expect two things its either bitcoin will stay the same or there will be a possible crash of price/value.

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Quote from: pereira4 on June 25, 2017, 05:47:56 PM

Im no longer worried about UASF and it's safe to say you shouldn't be worried too. 90% of hashrate is signaling for segwit2x, which means segwit will be activated before august 1st.

If I understood correctly, it will be compatible with regular Bitcoin Core clients so that means segwit will get activated. Just be sure to NOT download any software that isn't released by Bitcoin Core and you will be ok.

I heard the same thing too. I am really hoping that they can be true with their commitment for Segwit. It is true that what is happening now can be a good gamble but I still believe that after all these dramatic moves we can see a better Bitcoin more agile and ready for the future.

Will this mean that transaction fees can return to normal? I am expecting that it would be otherwise we would not enjoy the benefits of Segwit as Bitcoin users. Would there be a spike of Bitcoin value after August 1? I am expecting of that too but no one can be sure what will be since the market can also be an unpredictable beast.

Finally, the time has come for Bitcoin to soar high!

We have the same optimism dude. I hope that the transaction fee would be minimal that a lot of people can used bitcoin in doing micro payment transaction. I think if the transaction fees could be resolved by this activation then most probably mass adoption will be next. And as a result the price of bitcoin will spike definitely, pushing it to a new level. I know that bitcoin price is really unpredictable, but then again, I'm very optimistic about it and I think others are too. I guess, we will have to wait and see it this come to fruition.

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Quote from: 1Referee on June 26, 2017, 03:27:41 AM

Quote from: pereira4 on June 25, 2017, 05:47:56 PM

That's the reason why the Bitcoin Core team will likely reject this proposal, and they will be right

That's what you hope...

And it is not just me

In fact, if it weren't so (i.e. Bitcoin Core likely rejecting SegWit2x), there would be no UASF BIP148 proposal in the first place (even if BIP148 was proposed before SegWit2x). Basically, the SegWit2x proposal reveals a few important things worthy of mentioning. First, the miners are apparently afraid of the BIP148 proposal since if they were sure that it wouldn't come through, they would have just chosen to outright ignore it. Second, the mining cartel is as afraid that they will eventually get thrown out of business, and that's why they came up with SegWit2x to make it look as if they had a say (I guess the 2M hard fork will allow them to continue to do what they have been doing, i.e. go for high and higher fees). But not all them seem to be quite happy with this kinda "compromise". Jihan Wu is certainly not, so he started to threat the community with a Wucoin, a Bitcoin copycat on Jihan's own chain (though he is likely just bluffing to make SegWit2x look more acceptable). And finally, the SegWit2x proposal clearly shows that SegWit itself is certainly worth being implemented, otherwise it would be completely discarded by the cartel out of hand

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Im no longer worried about UASF and it's safe to say you shouldn't be worried too. 90% of hashrate is signaling for segwit2x, which means segwit will be activated before august 1st.

If I understood correctly, it will be compatible with regular Bitcoin Core clients so that means segwit will get activated. Just be sure to NOT download any software that isn't released by Bitcoin Core and you will be ok.

I heard the same thing too. I am really hoping that they can be true with their commitment for Segwit. It is true that what is happening now can be a good gamble but I still believe that after all these dramatic moves we can see a better Bitcoin more agile and ready for the future.

Will this mean that transaction fees can return to normal? I am expecting that it would be otherwise we would not enjoy the benefits of Segwit as Bitcoin users. Would there be a spike of Bitcoin value after August 1? I am expecting of that too but no one can be sure what will be since the market can also be an unpredictable beast.

Finally, the time has come for Bitcoin to soar high!

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in about half a year's time, 2M hard fork comes about.

More like three months...

If SegWit is worth it, it should be activated without any reservations like going for hard fork thereafter.

In an ideal situation that would be the likely outcome, but the point is that the need for a change/improvement is higher than it was ever before. No matter how we think about the miners, which mostly isn't very positive, they are part of the game, and thus Segwit2x is more or less the closest we can come in terms of a major agreement. Overall, it's not a bad proposal at all, it's perfectly workable.

Quote from: pereira4 on June 25, 2017, 05:47:56 PM

That's the reason why the Bitcoin Core team will likely reject this proposal, and they will be right

That's what you hope...

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Im no longer worried about UASF and it's safe to say you shouldn't be worried too. 90% of hashrate is signaling for segwit2x, which means segwit will be activated before august 1st

SegWit2x is not the same as plain SegWit

As I got it, according to the SegWit2x proposal, SegWit is activated first, and then, in about half a year's time, 2M hard fork comes about. This is the condition behind SegWit activation brought forth by the mining cartel. The miners present it as sort of compromise, but to me, this is outright bullshit. This question is a purely technical one (and it should be treated as such), and there is no place for such reasoning altogether (like "we agree to SegWit on the condition that you accept 2M hard fork later"). If SegWit is worth it, it should be activated without any reservations like going for hard fork thereafter. That's the reason why the Bitcoin Core team will likely reject this proposal, and they will be right

Sled

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UASF will affect bitcoin a lot because the movement of the price for the next few months is depending on that event so if it will become a successful change for bitcoin then the price will go up to not expected price then the opposite for that is a mess and for sure a very hard dump for bitcoin so i think that the UASF is playing a big role here for the price.

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 14, 2017, 11:38:45 PM

there are a lot of things going on right now which makes it even harder to say anything about how it will go and specially how the price will be because of this.
obviously the smoother the transaction will be the better it is for bitcoin's future and short term price. but it seems like it won't be smooth at all.

as far as BIP148 UASF goes i don't think it will gain enough support to move forward. we may end up going to the next UASF, this one seems to be very rushed.
i personally hope we can come to a compromise and meet in the middle, splitting the network won't end well for bitcoin.

Yes, the main problem is whether one or another solution that accepted by mostly people who involved and reach activation threshold over 80% or 95%. If segwit2x will become the chosen one, and won't split the chain then it will be better than just sit on 1Mb blocksize, even though not everyone thinks that would be enough for long term development.

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i think uasf has already done its job. there won't be a chain split and it won't be necessary this time.

however i think it might come into play again if there's talk of this 2mb hard fork. all the usual crap has only been put to bed for a short while until the hard fork stuff rises its head again a few weeks or months after august 1st.

i really can't see anyone other than a few miners wanting the 2mb hard fork.

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Im no longer worried about UASF and it's safe to say you shouldn't be worried too. 90% of hashrate is signaling for segwit2x, which means segwit will be activated before august 1st.

If I understood correctly, it will be compatible with regular Bitcoin Core clients so that means segwit will get activated. Just be sure to NOT download any software that isn't released by Bitcoin Core and you will be ok.

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on June 21, 2017, 10:01:21 AM

Actually the gap between ETH and BTC marketcaps is growing wider, because ETH is crashing now, while Bitcoin is recovering. Also, Ethers rise is much more artificial and unstable, ETH gets attention because it is used for ICO's, so people are buying it to participate, and then it gets locked on ICO addresses. Also it gets interest from governments and banks because it's more centralized than Bitcoin. Bitcoin on the other hand is growing because it has proven itself as safe and reliable digital asset for storing and moving value and has 8 years of history behind it.

And this is not the whole truth behind this change

If we assume for a moment that there is some truth behind the cryptocurrency market cap (there is very little but still), the Bitcoin market cap is still incomparable to that of Ethereum even if nominally they are (were) pretty close. What does it mean? It basically means that to move the market cap of Bitcoin just 1 billion dollars up, you would need to spend a lot more real dollars than to move the market cap of Ethereum by the same amount. And it works in reverse too, i.e. to move the market cap of Bitcoin down for 1 billion dollars, you would have to sell for a lot more real dollars than in case of Ethereum. The bottom line is that Ethereum market cap can be changed by far more with far less amount of dollars, and thus it is not even correct to compare the market caps of these two coins directly

Oralmat

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There are those that believe this will change the world, bring our civilization to the attention of alien life forms and perhaps signal in the beginning of the apocalypse. For the most part, if adopted, the distrust of the segwit will cause many sites and services that jump on the benefits to go ignored and hated. Who knows, Bitcoin is the father of crypto, but the future will likely lie with a descendant coin.

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Quote from: JGoRed on June 21, 2017, 09:11:06 AM

Quote from: deisik on June 20, 2017, 12:03:04 PM

Quote from: JGoRed on June 21, 2017, 09:11:06 AM

I'm sure it will affect the price, however in a sense we've got nothing to lose. If it works then we have Segwit and the price will probably skyrocket, if it doesn't then the price will drop; however with the insane transaction fees the price will probably begin to drop like a rock anyway

I'm curious what your reasoning behind this assumption is

So far we have seen the opposite effect. Bitcoin prices have been rising along with the fees, and the latter seem to have been rising even faster. That can be easily explained by the fact that fees and prices are not very tightly related to each other. Fees mainly depend on the number of transactions and the block size (whether these transactions are genuine or spammy is another question), while the price is determined on exchanges by the balance of supply and demand, while you don't need to make a transaction to make a trade

Ethereum is getting closer and closer in terms of market cap and people seem to be switching to ETH or LTC to do normal trades and I'm worried that with high fees bitcoin will be overtaken by other coins; and at that point it would kill mass adoption, destroy Bitcoin's prices, and create chaos.
And note that I said probably, not will. I'm not fully sure of that.

Actually the gap between ETH and BTC marketcaps is growing wider, because ETH is crashing now, while Bitcoin is recovering. Also, Ethers rise is much more artificial and unstable, ETH gets attention because it is used for ICO's, so people are buying it to participate, and then it gets locked on ICO addresses. Also it gets interest from governments and banks because it's more centralized than Bitcoin. Bitcoin on the other hand is growing because it has proven itself as safe and reliable digital asset for storing and moving value and has 8 years of history behind it.

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Quote from: deisik on June 20, 2017, 12:03:04 PM

Quote from: Qunenin on June 21, 2017, 12:23:00 AM

I'm sure it will affect the price, however in a sense we've got nothing to lose. If it works then we have Segwit and the price will probably skyrocket, if it doesn't then the price will drop; however with the insane transaction fees the price will probably begin to drop like a rock anyway

I'm curious what your reasoning behind this assumption is

So far we have seen the opposite effect. Bitcoin prices have been rising along with the fees, and the latter seem to have been rising even faster. That can be easily explained by the fact that fees and prices are not very tightly related to each other. Fees mainly depend on the number of transactions and the block size (whether these transactions are genuine or spammy is another question), while the price is determined on exchanges by the balance of supply and demand, while you don't need to make a transaction to make a trade

Ethereum is getting closer and closer in terms of market cap and people seem to be switching to ETH or LTC to do normal trades and I'm worried that with high fees bitcoin will be overtaken by other coins; and at that point it would kill mass adoption, destroy Bitcoin's prices, and create chaos.
And note that I said probably, not will. I'm not fully sure of that

As I explained earlier, this is an unlikely event

And as far as I can judge, Ethereum fees are not much different from those of Bitcoin these days. So, if anything, the former should be affected as much. Regarding Ethereum's market cap, it is interesting if you understand how fake it is. Not that Bitcoin's market cap is not fake on its own, but Ethereum simply beats all the records with its 80% of premined coins that never entered circulation. Now you can safely subtract that value from its market cap and compare the result with the market cap of Bitcoin. You can subtract 6% from Bitcoin's as well, which roughly equals 1M bitcoins (pre)mined by Satoshi

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Quote from: SaShiRaJaVu on June 20, 2017, 05:39:27 PM

Uncertain times are waiting and it will be interesting to follow these big news but at times it feel like i am not able to make any changes to the future but the greedy miners are making the changes for us Grin

,lets see how it goes and hope it will be for the best interest of bitcoin and not for the sudden benefits.

The impact of segwit will be more in the social realm than the coin itself. Segwit will not have as much of an effect that everyone makes it out to be in the network itself. The forums will finally quiet down about it and that will be nice. Whether a fork happens or not, there will be six months of solid chat about, rumors that cause price changes and then it will be the same exchange, network and technical world that it has been down the line

Price is what ultimately matters

Whether SegWit will make a noticeable difference on the Bitcoin network itself is secondary. If it is going to make a lot of noise and raise a lot of hype at that, even if does nothing (important) technically (I don't really now), then it won't matter a thing. Prices will certainly rise and that's what most Bitcoin users are eagerly waiting for and what will make them happy. Beyond that, activating SegWit basically opens doors to LN, and that could make a real difference once the latter gets activated

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Quote from: deisik on June 20, 2017, 12:03:04 PM

Quote from: SaShiRaJaVu on June 20, 2017, 05:39:27 PM

I'm sure it will affect the price, however in a sense we've got nothing to lose. If it works then we have Segwit and the price will probably skyrocket, if it doesn't then the price will drop; however with the insane transaction fees the price will probably begin to drop like a rock anyway

I'm curious what your reasoning behind this assumption is

So far we have seen the opposite effect. Bitcoin prices have been rising along with the fees, and the latter seem to have been rising even faster. That can be easily explained by the fact that fees and prices are not very tightly related to each other. Fees mainly depend on the number of transactions and the block size (whether these transactions are genuine or spammy is another question), while the price is determined on exchanges by the balance of supply and demand, while you don't need to make a transaction to make a trade

Ethereum is getting closer and closer in terms of market cap and people seem to be switching to ETH or LTC to do normal trades and I'm worried that with high fees bitcoin will be overtaken by other coins; and at that point it would kill mass adoption, destroy Bitcoin's prices, and create chaos.
And note that I said probably, not will. I'm not fully sure of that.

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Uncertain times are waiting and it will be interesting to follow these big news but at times it feel like i am not able to make any changes to the future but the greedy miners are making the changes for us Grin

,lets see how it goes and hope it will be for the best interest of bitcoin and not for the sudden benefits.

The impact of segwit will be more in the social realm than the coin itself. Segwit will not have as much of an effect that everyone makes it out to be in the network itself. The forums will finally quiet down about it and that will be nice. Whether a fork happens or not, there will be six months of solid chat about, rumors that cause price changes and then it will be the same exchange, network and technical world that it has been down the line.

SaShiRaJaVu

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Uncertain times are waiting and it will be interesting to follow these big news but at times it feel like i am not able to make any changes to the future but the greedy miners are making the changes for us Grin

,lets see how it goes and hope it will be for the best interest of bitcoin and not for the sudden benefits.

skorupi17

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UASF will definitely affect Bitcoin and it would be either positive or negative (obviously). If we are talking about the effects, then we are not certain at this point. When it comes to the price, maybe before the activation of UASF, we will see a drop on its price due to some people who will panic sell because of the uncertainty of the event. Even so, I assume that it will not last long and Bitcoin will continue its disturbed launch to the moon. Grin

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First of all , for those who don't know what UASF means : "User Activated Soft Fork"

"UASF is short for "User Activated Soft Fork". Its specification is described here.
It tries to force the activation of SegWit which is currently (~30%) unable to reach the required activation threshold (95%).
Between August 1st and November 15th, UASF nodes will consider all blocks invalid that do not explicitly signal support for SegWit, thus creating a fork. Within that fork, support for SegWit will be 100% which in turn triggers the activation threshold of SegWit (95%)."
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/64jky9/what_is_uasf/

If soft fork happens successfully, then price willl rise , if not , btc price will fall hardly .
It's a gamble

What do you think ?

i don't think it will fall, because the value is very solid now, look at the resistance at $2000 on the chart, at best we can have some dumping, but the value will increase a lot if segwitx2 will be activated, which is only a matter of time, now at 76% support, we did it

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I'm sure it will affect the price, however in a sense we've got nothing to lose. If it works then we have Segwit and the price will probably skyrocket, if it doesn't then the price will drop; however with the insane transaction fees the price will probably begin to drop like a rock anyway

I'm curious what your reasoning behind this assumption is

So far we have seen the opposite effect. Bitcoin prices have been rising along with the fees, and the latter seem to have been rising even faster. That can be easily explained by the fact that fees and prices are not very tightly related to each other. Fees mainly depend on the number of transactions and the block size (whether these transactions are genuine or spammy is another question), while the price is determined on exchanges by the balance of supply and demand, while you don't need to make a transaction to make a trade

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If soft fork happens successfully, then price willl rise , if not , btc price will fall hardly .
It's a gamble

What do you think ?

UASF will definitely affect Bitcoin since every event in Bitcoin plays a role that significantly affect Bitcoin directly or indirectly. So the question here is what will be the effect. As to what you've claimed in the OP, there are only 2 possible destination of Bitcoin after the UASF and that is up and down. We cannot be certain of what will be the effect of the upcoming UASF, whether it makes Bitcoin's price soar or drop, let us just hope that the end result will benefit Bitcoin as a whole.

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I'm sure it will affect the price, however in a sense we've got nothing to lose. If it works then we have Segwit and the price will probably skyrocket, if it doesn't then the price will drop; however with the insane transaction fees the price will probably begin to drop like a rock anyway.

setupbounds

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First of all, UASF, or "User Activated Soft Fork" has not affected bitcoin in the past significantly.
But technically and theoretically it can have a dramatic effect, so we just can not underestimate or ignore the possibilities to impact.

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What do you think ?

Depends what side of the fork we end up on.
UASF is a trigger option that is forced into play because of debate and disagreement on the path we take.
In regards to the prices what happens afterwards is very difficult to ascertain.

pooya87

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there are a lot of things going on right now which makes it even harder to say anything about how it will go and specially how the price will be because of this.
obviously the smoother the transaction will be the better it is for bitcoin's future and short term price. but it seems like it won't be smooth at all.

as far as BIP148 UASF goes i don't think it will gain enough support to move forward. we may end up going to the next UASF, this one seems to be very rushed.
i personally hope we can come to a compromise and meet in the middle, splitting the network won't end well for bitcoin.

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First of all , for those who don't know what UASF means : "User Activated Soft Fork"

"UASF is short for "User Activated Soft Fork". Its specification is described here.
It tries to force the activation of SegWit which is currently (~30%) unable to reach the required activation threshold (95%).
Between August 1st and November 15th, UASF nodes will consider all blocks invalid that do not explicitly signal support for SegWit, thus creating a fork. Within that fork, support for SegWit will be 100% which in turn triggers the activation threshold of SegWit (95%)."
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/64jky9/what_is_uasf/

If soft fork happens successfully, then price willl rise , if not , btc price will fall hardly .
It's a gamble

What do you think ?

The price is going to be deeply affected by whatever happens, if we finally get approval of segwit I will not be surprised if the price of bitcoin double in a matter of weeks or months but if it is denied, the price is going to crash, at least that is my opinion, we will still have a chance to approve segwit, but it will be the last chance to do so.

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