Topic: Will we see repeat of 2017 or new trend? (Read 534 times)

I have given you many articles, there are some traders who say that the price can reach more than $150k in 2024, what they claim is that it could be at the end of 2024 more or less like this date , but that's what they say, I'm not very I'm fine with the Technical Analyses , because I don't understand many indicators, it also requires a lot of study, but you have to see that when analyzes are made of other years, if the patterns are met, it is likely that it will Rise Again, but by how much? and when? It is not known, it could be a lot, it could be a small rally, but the possibility is there.

We have all seen the Range that can rise , but not the correction that can be made and that can happen without a doubt, but it all Depends on how the bears in the world sign, you can turn and look back and the things that happened in 2020 no They are the same as those of 2023 and close to 2024 , and that also affects , everything can be used as a guide, but nothing is written, any thing can happen.

I would say exactly for that reason that 2019 (or 2015 for that matter) is quite similar. But I think we are getting to that 2020 year now, in less than 2 weeks or so we will have that 2020, and if you go back and check 2020 you will see that it was an alright year. I mean surely it wasn't anything insane, and I honestly do not expect it to be insane neither, for 2024 I mean, but I think it is going to be fine, and that's the most important thing.

I believe that we can't really change much on the long term and has to do something that will be a lot better. I feel like it is not going to be all that easy at all, it is going to be quite a difficult process and we need to make sure that we can make it work one way or another. I hope that people could see the difference between the years, and expect a 2020 type of increase, a good chunk and a decent one, just not a lot.

back when BTC rose to $20k back in 2017, some altcoins like XRP also hit ATH to $3 which didn't happen in 2021. it did disappoint the holders of XRP as it should have gone more than $3 because it's the cycle as expected.

this could only mean that there will be altcoins that will be left out in every bull season. most probably the altcoins that rose to its ATH in 2021 might not perform well in the next bull market. just my opinion.

History is often repeated by bitcoin whereas all other coins gets diminish as the time goes therefore trusting bitcoin is a wise decision instead of selecting altcoins which can be a big cause of your defeat.

Last time bitcoin was 69k$ and we are all in hope that this time price will surge more to proceed above 69k$. Every coming halving is well protected than former one therefore it is assuming that very soon bitcoin will procure the worth of 70k$.

From bitcoin investment everyone will reap their bonus so instead of predicting what is better or what is inferior gather more bitcoin as you can and also remember that if you are in patience for falling off price for accumulation then you will not see stimulating featurs of bitcoin.

December 2017 was a cumulation of the post Bitcoin halving rally from 2016 and it ushered in an astonishing ATH of $19k+. It was glorious and unbelievable season for Bitcoin. Most analysts never saw that coming too. Many naysayers were proved wrong that year. That was a bubble year and it brought so much attention to Bitcoin.

If we're going to have an honest comparison, it shouldn't be December 2017 and December 2023. 2017 was a post halving year while 2023 is a pre-halving year. If anything, the comparison should be between post–halving years (2017 & 2025) or pre–halving years (2019 & 2023). Comparing 2023 and 2017 is a handicapped one.

Well, I couldn't say it will be the same but if we talk about the existence of long bearish, and short pumps, that is still something to experience. We can't change the market sentiment as it remains unknown to use for what exactly gonna happen. After seeing the price of Bitcoin jump over $40,000, I was happy but not to the extent that I was looking forward to seeing ATH this year. ATH is way too far from now, we wait a few months after halving, that is what people are predicting and I agree with that.

That is while we don't have to use 2017 bitcoin price to reference 2023, because the adoption of bitcoin in every year always come differently, I said that we have to understand that adoption of bitcoin today will be totally different from the adoption of bitcoin next year, so I believe that bitcoin price is something that have to do with demand and supply and for the price to remain constant or remain increasing that means their is more demand in bitcoin or cryptocurrency generally, so I believe that we have to understand exactly the difference and the variation of quantification of bitcoin in 2017 and bitcoin in 2023

Expect always the unexpected on which there's no assurance that past events would really be happening in the future. This is why you should really be that mindful and be wise on every actions that you are making.

We would see a repeat of 2017 or not? Doesnt matter much and there's no way on knowing on what would be the future looks like.Thing here is that you should really know on what you are doing.
Making up wise decisions basing up into your own experience towards the market. We do know that adoption rate and recognition is really that increasing then we can assume out that the
numbers might really be that different wayback into those previous years. New trend and new prices would be most likely would be seen and this is something
inevitable i should say.

This is why it would really be that wise or good to bag up into those coins on which you do see that it does have that chance on rising up its value
on upcoming years to come.

The market will definitely be different this time from 2017. Now we have passed 7 years for that time, people's perception about Bitcoin has changed. At that time the price of Bitcoin was low and the number of investors decreased. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has increased and the number of investors has also increased to a large extent. In addition to ordinary investors, institutional investors also showed their positive attitude towards Bitcoin. Next year 2024 Bitcoin is going to show the highest ATH ever. Potential ETF approval and Bitcoin halving could lead to big changes in Bitcoin prices next year. Although it cannot be said for sure about ETF but Halving will definitely play an important role that will differentiate it from all previous trends.

your chart shows a clear deviation
2017=2021
2018=2022

2019= 2023 this is the deviation

first three quarters match fourth quarter is a total mismatch

2019 2023
Q1 +12.  +72
Q2 +159  +7
Q3 -  11.  - 22

Q4. +63.    -13. this is a huge pattern change.

I would argue the first three quarters are some what simalar.

I would also argue the op’s question is senseless since

2017 > 2021 > 2025 is the proper four year cycle.


comparing 2017 to 2023 is wrong on so many angles it is hard to even think what the op meant.

I think we are in a new era with new issues. But that this year matches 2015 a lot.


which means we get to 48-50k. and profits are taken in jan.

Forget the chaos of December 2017. This time it will be different. Spot ETF is something that will change the future of Bitcoin and it's not like someone or some group out there is pumping Bitcoin. I am speculating that these are all real investors and mostly retail buyers which is good for the future of Bitcoin. It must be scattered to many people so that it won't be manipulated by anyone.
Also, take a look at the market of Bitcoin, unlike 2017 is not pumping like crazy. It's slowly getting there and with a history of $60k ATH, we are still far from reaching that. The demand will be higher once ETF is approved and I guess all we can do now is prepare. Accumulate more, buy more, and HODL. I don't think we can doubt Bitcoin at this point. It has already proven it can increase in value so many times, it's just people who keep on getting confused about it.
Let us not let those big investors take it all, we must be a part of it, and that negative view about 2017 will be gone.

Bro, it's not about the 4-year cycle it's about the cyclical movement and sentimental developments, according to the current market scenario and movement and the developments expected in early 2024 we can say the main Bull run waive will be around late Q1 of the 2024 and 2025 will be a bullish year but just some early months and that will be the ending time of the Bull-Run.

I'm thinking so high after a healthy correction we can expect only a single last wave of the Bull in 2025 because the market doesn't need to follow the 4-year strict timeline to cover a cycle, it may range between the 1.5 years to the 4 years, but TBH I think maximum potential of the Bull run will be in the 2024 Q1 and early Q2. Maximum Bull rally lasts 7 months to 11 months and we are in early Bull wave already so expect the Sep or OCT 2024 will be the lowest Bull point, from where a last strike may happen. It all depends on the market developments.

If we will stick on the 4 year principle, then history won't repeat it self this year, which is becoming now in to reality, because the year is already ending, and up until now, there are still no new ATH that came in, but the price we have now is only much better than what we have on the 2017 bull run.

A bull run is when the price of the cryptos are rising, so it's no brainer on why the people are so positive when that moment comes. If we are not sure that the last ATH will double on the next ATH, then we shouldn't expect for it. You are right that the next bull run would be on the year 2024-2025 but I prefer 2025 if we follow the 4 year thing that I said earlier. A 4 year gap was actually a long wait.

Heres old screenshot from 2021, nothing select just found it randomly now and its a similar price to recent BTC movement:

August 2021 so 28 months ago, we walk a long way in circles to come back to where we were previous.   Main point being old pricing is highly relevant to determining our current progress but its never a repeat after all its not the first time its now encumbered with far more volume then last times we walked through these parts.
   2017 has some relevance but I think the actual prices similar to now are more important then 6 years ago.  The whole phase shifting out of end 2020 is where we should start our attempt to draw a parallel to moves now.   Even the same prices cannot be said to duplicate as Dollar every year for sure loses value.  The high of August 2021 for Dollar index was 94 and we're now 102, I just look for us to pivot around 100 and to be full speed ahead we are probably going to need DXY to register under 100 and the speculative trends to favor Dollar outflow not any attempt at Dollar strength.  Even if thats in FIAT terms and USD loses value above or below still I still would watch that for sentiment vs speculative assets which BTC is classed as.

Our current highs are about the closing weekly lows of Aug and Sept 2021, it fell back then and found support around here.   So possible resistance 43.3k, also its 50% fib retrace of the ATH to following low.  We are mid way in those two polar opposites.

What happened in 2017 was after the 2016 halving has taken place, it was not a year that came before the bull run but it was after the 2016 halving. So in this case, we are expecting an halving event to take place by next year, so the market looks very bullish than it looks bearish. So I am not expecting the same thing that happened in December 2017 to repeat itself now. Some events could just be coincidental but it is not actually what the market will be looking up to.

Its been how many years since 2017 now? Do you know that many people are fully aware of Bitcoin compare to 2017? So I expect things to move differently this time and its already showing it, right now Bitcoin is far more bullish than ever, not as weak as the past years anymore.

I do have a concern, and that's about the ETF approval, I am wondering what can happen after the approval is over, price will suddenly rise to the top but what comes next is  unknown and it can catch people off guard.

Its Better to start planning on how to take your profits right now instead because many people will fall for the FOMO, they will think its never going to end and they will be trapped, avoid greediness, profits that's not secured is not profit.

It's going to be very different every bull run though, December 2017 height was most likely trigger by the CBoE and CME if I'm not mistaken. 2021 there's no trigger point except that we are in the pandemic that time and everyone is investing or putting their money on bitcoin as a hedge and there a prediction modelling, the S2F that says we will hit $100k but it didn't happen but still the market remain bullish up to $69k.

So in 2024-2025, there could be a different form of trigger, perhaps it could be the Bitcoin spot ETF approval. Maybe we will not get one approval, but a series of them who have application in the review process already and that they are all waiting for the SEC.

We can make patterns but doesnt mean that it would really be the same.I do agree into those sentiments above is that we are really that a fan on trying out compare those things in the future into the past
on which it is a normal approach but we should really be at least that realistic that things that would happen in the future wont really be totally the same because of those several factors that we do know.
Specially when it comes to crypto adoption which it is really indeed different. So we might be expecting prices to be that high but since the adoption rate and recognition is much lesser compared into those previous years
then we might not really be able to see some serious shoot up in price.

Now that we are fast approach with the halving event then we might be seeing some patterns but doesnt mean that it would really be following on the same path but well we do know that in a market
if it doesnt go up then it would go down vice versa. This is why if you are an investor or trader then you should really know on what are the things that you should gonna do.

Yes as far as the market conditions and the events lined up it looks like this December will be bit different than what we witnessed during December 2017 and actually it's a good sign that we have seen so much of price movement even before the bull run which has triggered more investments which will act as shield even if we have couple of minor price corrections before the bull run. But as you mentioned towards the end of your response that we cannot merely go by expert opinions as they are just speculations and some low cap coins does swindles based on their predictions because of the followers cashing in, now majority of us are awaiting for two events one is Spot ETF & other one being Halving.

What happened in 2017 will not happen again in 2024 because they are different times. What will happen in 2024 halving and bull run, there is a high chance that it can be better or it can be even worse. So that seems vague, in my opinion.

All the patterns seen by expert traders in the field of cryptocurrency are just speculations; they only become true when the majority believes them and they happen at the right time. And that's how it always happens, right?

Not really that bad on being optimistic but we should really be having that realistic approach when it comes to things on which it isnt bad to have that positivity but since we are dealing something into this market
then we should really that make ourselves that get prepared for whatever things that we are really that encountering because if we dont then pretty sure it would really be creating that kind of too much expectation or anticipating about things on which arent supposed to be that right or something that way it is really too much and on the time that things didnt happen or really go the other way round then it would really be bringing
up that kind of frustration on which it would really be giving out that such impact.

For repeating out into the events that happened before then there's no way that could really be able to tell if it would really be that happening again or not. Just like been said by
others that there might be some patterns on which it might indicate those kind of similarities but as we do all know that there would really be no guarantees that it would
really be giving out that kind of assurance for things to happen.

Your optimism seems good about bitcoin, but you should look at the data more often before saying so. Bitcoin's previous ATH occurred on November 10, 2021 or more than 2 years before now, when bitcoin hit $69k as ATH. The 4-year cycle known as the halving is a good basis for expecting more demand. The average large investor takes advantage of these cycles which in turn makes the price of bitcoin increase over time, but bitcoin is never obliged to repeat history.

Anyone should remain realistic about something that hasn't happened yet, I mean don't get your hopes up. The price of bitcoin is very difficult to predict even though some people may be able to make an analysis that is close to accurate, but in the long run we have seen many wild predictions that were ultimately wrong. Always consider the risks and don't hope too much for something big to come true, even if it happens then consider it as a bonus for your patience.

we are not in a 2017 bull run pattern.


we are in a 2015 pre ½ ing runup.

see my thread on this.

That's why monthly investments are the best way to go with bitcoin and has always been like that. I never cared about what the price of bitcoin was at the moment I buy it, I have always bought bitcoin as soon as I got my salary first of every month, some months I do not have enough money to do that, but whenever I do, the moment I get my salary, it goes to bitcoin.

Not all of it of course, just a small portion for investment purposes. I did this back when it was under 3k, I did this above 60k, I have done it anything in between as well. This isn't exactly DCA, because DCA means buying cheaper than your initial investment, I just buy, buy whatever the price is, and I aim to do this for 20 years and then retire with it.

Yes, you are right, the number of people interested in crypto is really growing every day. There is essentially not much time left before Bitcoin halving and I would like new investors to give preference to it and not just new altcoins. Bitcoin will become more scarce and this will definitely affect the price, which will holders will win without a doubt.

Corrections and price increases are two things that are very certain to happen in the market as I see now where Bitcoin is starting to experience a slight correction, even though previously no one predicted a small correction today. But this happened very clearly even though it was a very short period of time and any correction would certainly be better to take advantage of, especially for those who want to buy more. Although implementing defensive buying that is tailored to each person's abilities is quite a good thing for everyone to do.

This is like a metaphor for people who miss their train because they are waiting for a cheaper train. In fact, if everyone wanted to buy Bitcoin with minimal capital through several stages, of course there would be no feeling of regret or disappointment because they didn't buy beforehand. Because everyone doesn't know when Bitcoin will experience a decline and when Bitcoin will experience an increase in price, so everyone will only take advantage of the moment from time to time when they want to buy Bitcoin, although there are also those who buy it just to save it as an investment.

We have always witnessed that Bitcoins follow the history. We have seen that in order to achieve new ATH price Bitcoins have always followed a 4 year cycle. Last time it went for it’s ATH price in 2020, so yes 2024 might be big and this time also it seems like Bitcoins following the history. I am very much sure that Bitcoins will cross 70k usd in 2024. So without thinking so much, we should concentrate more on accumulating the coins.

I don't want to spread Fuds or pessimism but so far, I haven't seen many countries accepting bitcoin as currency except El Salvador. And El Salvador has not yet fully made bitcoin its sole currency, they still use USD as their main currency. Furthermore, I am not very optimistic about bitcoin becoming a currency in the future. Even the approval of ETFs that we expect is turning bitcoin into a gold-like asset rather than a currency. It's true that there are still some companies and stores that are trying to accept it as a payment method, but on a national level, that hasn't happened yet.

Bitcoin have difference condition from 2017 with situation right not, have many bigger companies around the world adopted bitcoin as legal payment currency and right now have El Savador allowed bitcoin as payment tender. I think last several season Bitcoin not huge progress and still use as commodity assets not adopting for payment currency and right now Bitcoin have good movement not only with price but advantage of bitcoin adopted and use for daily day. Pattern of bitcoin price have any similar with 2017 but I don't sure how bitcoin success becoming top large digital currency and adopted by many companies as bigger revolution of bitcoin.

But one one side with bitcoin against still the same where in 2017 many bad news publishing by community dislike with bitcoin and still the same until right now they keep trying make FUD with bitcoin.

We can't prevent them, but it's clear that we are not going to end up with too much neither, not that many would want to sell when the prices are soaring, they could, they are allowed, they are not in trouble, but they won't. That's what the situation is all about, that's what the bull run is, they just need to keep on focusing what they are capable of doing the best and that means when the price is going up, they are not going to end up selling, which creates the bull run.

In every bull run we ever had so far, we never had any issue with this, we always had the situation going as far as possible thanks to all those people who didn't sell and all those people who ended up buying as well, it allowed everyone to get better.

I do not think it is the same to what happened in 2017 because what happened in 2017 was something very far from what can happen currently, I think that when we are waiting for a simlar coup to 2017 we can take a great blow, it is not Correct that we think that the things can become a fact that will occur the same of those times, in 2017 there were no things that are now, such as wars, land disputes, things that are degradable, pandemics, diseases and what is coming, and This is what we can see that it is not the same as in 2017, in 2017 s there was a great rise in the price of Bitcoin, but did not get to the $ 70K that passed the last ATH and everyone said that They were going to $ 50k.

The patterns can repeat themselves, because that is what we can call possible, but I do not believe that things are given as at that time, I speak of the time because we were living less tragic things like now.

I also believe that the last Bitcoin dip is the last below 30k that we will truly see in a long time to come and for sure after the Bitcoin halving,  we will be having some minor price correction or drop but not to be that significant to get much attention since all focus is already on the expected bitcoin bull market that is most anticipated.

But to say that Bitcoin will follow the same cycle or in the year 2017 will be totally out of point to say it think so since Bitcoin have a hard history of not repeating the same pattern at every halving cycle or year,  unlike Bitcoin before the halving back then,  it was clear and stable at that point to say that bitcoin price then was much more down compared to what price the coin is today,  so for sure bitcoin won't follow that pattern as it did in 2017.

If IIRC, the cycle goes on and the same pattern will happen. That means that by December 2025 is the one that we're waiting for the highest reach and peak of the bull run. Our basis is the past bull run that came from 2017 and then will be followed by the bearish run, right? And that might get activated on 2026 and so on. These are all speculations and it's still best to just keep on track with the market so you do you what actions must be taken whether you're all in profit or more accumulation.

I am with you on this. The scenario today is different from 2017 in a lot of aspects.
The adoption alone has been increased, more users and stakeholders are already in this market.
And of course, the population who are getting familiar in this market as well is steadily increasing.
It means, the possible demand is in the positive direction. Consider that the supply of btc is fixed.
Then, theoretically, the price will increase. So that's a good indication that we will see an increase in btc price.

This will be a different cycle, and yes we might not see the 2017 scenario again because we are aiming for the better this time. We will not see any hype because Bitcoin already hit the mainstream and doesn’t need any hype anymore because big companies are coming in and that’s what we need.

Bullish market can still happen and yes, new ATH will happen soon so let’s be more optimistic and don’t ever think that Bitcoin will not grow anymore because its not true, and you might lose opportunities if you remain negative about the market.

We don't have any information about correction that when it will happens and how much price will decrease but there will surely be stage where we will must see dip before halving but if we are waiting for it then we will miss the better moment of buying. Everyone is saying that price will becoming lower due to the reason of correction so they will buy bitcoin that time but who knows that whether it will be happen or not so don't waste time through waiting for accurate timings but buy bitcoin until accurate time to get advantage out of it.

Bitcoin's price is at 41k$ from two or three days and according to estimation in few days it will grow more to cross the value of 45k$. If someone did not purchase bitcoin and are in hope that price will lower more so they will feel apologetic about their ignorance.

There's no way that we could really be able to tell on where it would be heading because market is always been that unpredictable. Somewhat if the price cant be assured to happen again but it do usually rhymes and this is where most people do really rely on. This is why it would really be just that normal that people would really be having impressions that they would really be that happening again basing up on some possible
patterns that they've seen basing up into its history on which it cant really be that denied that majority of people would really be anticipating or expecting on the same thing.

Just like been said that recognition and adoption rate is really that totally different 6-8 years ago on which there's no way that we couldnt really be able to tell or say
that we might be seeing something different into this current years specially when halving event is really that fast approaching.
Somewhat we are really that expecting something positive most of the time but of course everything would really be just that depending.

Even not exactly four years. And then there is also a case that during the fourth year, the price didn't rise. What you said about the halving is true, but we can't prevent the people from selling when they feel like they should.

And this can still result for the price to decline. There are also people who won't buy for some reasons, which can make the price to become stable. The price is doing fine this year but all are expecting for more. We only need some patience for this because the year is already ending and there is another halving that will take place. That is one of its pumpers, other than us (normal individuals), the institutions and the whales.

It was a golden time then.I think the same trend as in 2017 will not happen again, then cryptocurrency and mining was very discussed and hyped even among people who were very far from crypto. They wrote about it in newspapers, talked about it in the media and on TV, which caused a huge effect on the market and an influx of big money.Now I don’t see this, so I think that the 2017 scenario is hardly possible now.

The situation is different and of course what is happening now is also different so I think there will be differences for what happens in the future even though it won't be significant.
And we have experienced it this year with many positive market trends, which is a difference from what happened in previous years.
If we talk about a repeat of 2017, this is when we see a new ATH that occurs again 4 years later, namely in 2021, and I am sure this will happen again in the 4 years after that, and we have seen many signs of it.

I also think that the end of this year will be very different from the conditions of the previous bullish year so that differences in Bitcoin price measurements at the end of this year will very likely be different. Now there are many large companies and institutional investors who are starting to think about owning Bitcoin because they are also quite aware of the very bullish market conditions next year so they are starting to compete to buy it at the end of this year.

2017 is a bullish season and OP is asking if we could experience the same or another ATH.
Every time the bull season comes, we expect a more positive response on the market price bringing it high. We're supposed to believe because that was already happen last bull run. Now, we are expecting another double of the previous ATH, quite achieving though but yes, we still don't have any assurance for this. For me, the next bull season 2024-2025 was not far from the previous years, we still expect such an uprising trend.

This could be the factor that might make it ever so different than last time but then there's more institutional investors in the market and more corporations that are willing to put in huge amounts of money to invest in bitcoin so in a way, there's nothing that has changed but there's always a first time for everything with bitcoin, maybe it will be a different pattern than the last time but I know that there's more to this than many of us expects.

It wasn't a trend, it was just a long bearish period.
And yeah we might be seeing another prolonged bearish market in the next couple of years, but I'm quite positive 2024 is most likely a bullish year. post halving in 20202 wasn't as bad as 2017 though, which I think a prolonged bearish run might not gonna happen in the next 10 years considering bitcoin adaption today is becoming more better than before. Bitcoin price might just play sideways after the 2024 halving and not totally a downward spiral.

there has been some chart graph going around reflecting that we exactly on the same path like in the previous bullrun and we are around the halving bullrun which will steadily increase, not sudden but steady and yes if that chart turning out to be true then we can easily expect not to see the price of bitcoin falling down below $30k again because im seeing from the previous trend in every bullrun we always have higher bottom than the previous bullrun.
the fall down in previous bearish was indeed so massive that we lost quite literally 90% of valuation for most of coin, good thing bitcoin isn't that bad and can contain some of the drops but indeed we've fallen from all time high too far and this time around if we could breakthrough the all time high again and even scoring an even higher place then i'm expecting the future market to be having significant increase in market capitalization.
the correction in this regard can be easily ignored if we are just keep increasing more and more in term of all time high linearly from the graph since correction is pretty normal to have.

We are going through accumulation phase. That's generally the scenario we have right now. That's precisely the reason why the price has already more than doubled, almost tripled even, just within a year. But we shouldn't forget that with this high growth in price in just a year, there should be investors who prefer to take profit. I know of some who indeed enjoyed their profits. Their money has already doubled in less than a year. That's not afforded to them by other investment opportunities. So these small corrections right now are normal within an accumulation period.


No big companies that are entering Bitcoin now? There already are, and more are waiting for the green light which is probably what an approved Bitcoin spot ETF is to them.

Who can ever forget that time?  2017 when the price almost hits 20k but sadly the
transaction fees those days are truly High that i did not manage to enjoy my profit and sadly did not also manage
to buy again in 2018 when the price dumped badly.
We are still waiting for what to come but Yeah i think this is far different from 2017
because we are not in halving , there are no even big companies that entering bitcoin now ,and also the
ETF is still on the table so maybe this will never be a copycat of 2017.

I still believe we will have other corrections before and after the halving but none will be so large that bitcoin falls below $30k again. But I agree with you that those who haven't bought bitcoin yet because they thought the price would drop further to buy, they have really been left behind. If they don't change their plans and continue with that attitude, they will regret it later when the price of bitcoin is rising higher and higher. For me, bear season is over and we are in pre-bull season.

Basically your point of view on this suggests that the growth we have seen in last one month or so is organic apart from the push we got due to Bitcoin spot ETF since we didn't have halving before this pump unlike 2017 and yes I am aligned that there won't be much of a correction. But rather we are going through accumulation phase and people should have already accumulated Bitcoin if they haven't they are already left behind (not trying to create FOMO but the fact).

that is what we all believe that Halving is what the reason why Bull market is happening and All
Time High is being set , so this year seems to be not what we are looking here.
maybe next year if time permitted ? and next year if the halving succeeded bringing as Bull market once again?
I am still preparing , though there are already good amount to be hold for that term yet looking for another low
opportunity purchasing more from Bitcoin to altcoins.

2017 is truly a crypto Era where people around the world starts entering the market , we can assess this to also the creation of accounts and wallets ,thought is not a concrete file to prove that year is the Era but for me 2017 is the best ever year for crypto specially Bitcoin.
And also I assume that what we have in 2017 is the effect of Bitcoin halving while in 2023? we are half year away to halving and also year far from making another ATH, what I do believe is 2024 will if there maybe a history repeating , that is the perfect year.
I am guilty of this , to not believing bitcoin and crypto in 2015 instead needed to wait till 2017 to finally realized what I missed through those years.

2017 was different. It was a bullish year because it was the year that immediately followed the halving year. The full effect of the halving which happened in July 2016 was fully priced in in 2017.

This year 2023 is different because we are not anticipating the effect of any halving. We are approaching the halving. So I don't think that what happened in December of 2017 would be repeated in this December. The circumstances are different.

But I also don't think there will be a strong correction. The Bitcoin spot ETF is a big factor. Also there are others who are not yet done accumulating in preparation for the halving next year.

Most crypto enthusiasts anticipate that there's a bull run right after halving and it usually occurs after 6 months when halving is successfully done.
So I expect that it will repeat and could be this year-end would be the start to skyrocketing the price.

However, nobody knows what will happen in the future, so let it be and hold it for the long term if you want a good profit.
Never sell in a lost position.

That year was a big surprise to the people and the world, especially those who ignored crypto and thought that was a scam. That was the year that brought attention to the community making these rich people and businessmen talk about its brighter future. Even shitcoins had pump xxx times that every holder got money more than what they thought. But I'd never expect this thing to happen again aside from coins that have a use case. For now, the best and least secure investment is to buy old coins which we can expect to skyrocket once bull season comes.

that was a bull run where the majority shitcoins turned gold. there were unknown coins where the price hit $0.13 and if you have 5 million of them and you hold hoping to go more than $0.13 in the net bull run, you surely haave regrets by now. a good amount of unrealized profit lost.

things turned bad after china banning, google and facebook bans advertising and crashed the market to $3800/BTC, a good opportunity for those who have converted their profit to stablecoin.

if this happens again, make sure you won't waste the opportunity.

Each year in cryptosphere have it's own way of increment, so you can not use the previous year experience of bearish season and bullrun season to compare to each other, so therefore if what happened last year 2017 is what you think that may happen this year I think is a misconceptions and misunderstanding of the method of bitcoin technology or bitcoin increment and decrement in the market..I know quite that may people is afraid of bitcoin due to 2017 experience and I have across of people encouraging other people to sell off their bitcoin thinking bitcoin may fall at any point in time, so we are supposed to checking or chart before we conclude of bitcoin price.

Seeing a price decline before a real bullish market appears is highly possible, that already happened in the previous bull run and history might repeat this time. The truth is, no one can accurately tell the future price of bitcoin, and we cant even tell as to when or how high it's new ATH will be. Or worst is we will still experience a massive price decline before we will hit it's new all time high.

Speculations here and there, that's what we can all do this time. But if fate allows to repeat the history from 2017, a lot of people will definitely be rejoicing while leaving the others regretting.

No one knows the truth about the price of Bitcoin and never will. There are only cycles and predictions are made accordingly. Other predictions exist only as predictions and are forgotten. I don't know if what happened in 2017 will happen again in the coming days, but we all hope for good things to happen.

Many of the people who invest in Bitcoin believe that the price will rise and invest for that reason. I think there is little time left for investors who have been waiting for a price increase for a long time to reach their goal. After all this time in the bear market, it would not be a surprise to see a new ATH. I think we should not rush and wait for price increases gradually.

I have the same feeling as you. I expect one year from now to see another all time high. For the moment, the volatility is at its best with Bitcoin with the price moving from $41k to $44k and bounce back with a lot of buying and cashing out activity.
People were waiting to see the price increase so they can make some movements, I don't blame them but we should keep holding for the next peak.
The instability in the price will continue for a month from now in my opinion, I just hope to not see less than $40k price again..

No I dont feel we are within the same kind of motion as 2017 despite the positive end to this year.  I think we have further to go but also it will not result in a peaked price during this month, if BTC is left to run freely  we should find the best price gains occur after the halvening which is next spring.  So its about 6 months from now before we should speculate on the best gains, the sharpest gradient on the graph and so on.   If its my estimate I will say 12 months from now maybe, a full year off and I'll say that for the same reasons I said before 2023 this year will be revision or consolidation more then grand gains or an immediate bounce back.   The bigger the price objective, the more preparation is to occur beforehand imo (or else we risk very unstable prices gains then losses).

It looks like the trade is quite saturated at the top and needs correction to balance good market prices.
$40k is still the nearest support which is strong enough for now, If it continues to hold I believe there is a fairly high rise again.

If this is said to be excessive optimism, it may be because many investors believe that the price of Bitcoin will continue to surge and believe that next year Bitcoin will get better.
When that optimism becomes excessive, this will create a wave of FOMO-backed halving that will soon occur in the coming months.

experience every four year bitcoin and altcoin price always bull
because every four year bitcoin halvng and revenue from mining reduce so bitcoin price can incrase, about suply and demand
but i thnk still need pumper to can incraese price

Not for this December in my opinion because, because we are in a different cycle and adoption is much stronger than disposal, if it's just a normal correction, between consolidation prices it is a natural thing in my opinion, but if there is a deeper correction it is not possible, such as returning to the price of $20k, what might happen is a side way in my opinion, although at the base the price movement is almost the same, but each cycle has a different story in my opinion, bitcoin dominant also still has the power to be bullish this December.

But isn't it a good thing if it is bearish, because we can still collect more bitcoin before the halving this month, I will follow it continuously.

i don't think that the bitcoin market will repeat the trend of 2017, seeing how positive investors are now and the halving that is getting closer. but maybe in the near future the bitcoin market will experience bearish due to negative sentiment or issues in the market, it is only natural that in market developments there will definitely be bearish but it will not be as severe as 2017. and it will be good again and we will probably see how bitcoin reaches the new ath.

In my opinion, what is happening now is the result of excessive optimism about the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, and people are eagerly awaiting this event and continue to buy Bitcoin, so we have seen this important rise during the past short period.

But this excessive optimism may also lead to adverse results in most cases, as happened today when Bitcoin fell by one candle, with a violent decline of -7% in just one hour.

The market is currently very volatile and the direction cannot be determined accurately, but it is possible that we will witness a decline before the expected rise after the expected Bitcoin halving in the middle of next year.

The current price pump is definitely a bull run with FOMO phase. This is basically another price bubble. I'm sure that this price bubble will burst sooner or later and there will be another bearish season. It's normal for Bitcoin to have bull runs and bearish seasons. This won't change. You can't expect the BTC price to keep going up forever. My expectation is another big regulatory hit over the Bitcoin/crypto world in 2024. The central banks/governments will try to push their CBDC projects further, so they will do everything they can to smash the cryptocurrency world with more regulations and bans.

I agree with you on that,  Bitcoin may likely not see the level of pump it experienced back in 2017 because you rightly said,  bitcoin back then was much cheaper and that made it easy for its market to easily get pumped with little activities and trends.

But right now,  those mechanisms that make the reality of a huge pump happen in 2017 are currently absent such as the total unmined bitcoin and how much the price of bitcoin then compared to now.

Hmm, I was not part of the crypto community in 2017, but I've already heard of the 2017 market cycle, comparing the current sentiments and expected developments I can say that no this was just a pre-wave of the Bull run and there's nothing to be afraid of that we might face a small bear market again, well it can be possible but 95% chances are that we won't fall into such scenario.

Becasue the ETF's hype and the ETF contenders standing in the financial world really deserves such pre-hype. By the end of the year, we can expect a massive jump and then a small consolidation zone over there. Currently if any bad thing happens to the EFT approval any sort of denial or deal after Jan it will be a hit to market and we may see market falling freely for some short time, but according to the lastest SEC's statements and other developments its highly expected in Jan there will be some ETF approvals reserved.

Prior to halving, it's normal if this goes paired with a correction and also with these pumps then we don't have any other direction where it is heading so just be ready to any direction where the market goes.

The market always surprises us unexpectedly. But with assumptions that we've got based on the cycles and histories, if there will be some sudden change then that's better. However, if things go accordingly then you have come prepared and you are expecting things to happen normally. And about a new ATH, maybe it's too early to see that if you're talking bout' 2023 December.

No we wont see a repeat of December 2017.

We are currently PRE HALVING so we are in a bull run, back in December 2017 it was 18
months AFTER the July 2016 halving so the timing was for Bear season in Bitcoins 4
year halving cycle..

If you look at the 3 previous halvings, at least 6 months before the event we enter the
bull phase, and from approximately 12 months after we enter the bear season.

It might be the same month but its a different year and a different time in Bitcoins 4 year cycle.

You know, predicting anything in the market is a bit of a shot in the dark, but your thoughts on where Bitcoin and altcoins are at right now make sense. It doesn't seem like a major correction is coming anytime soon, even if the price dips a bit. Things are way different now than they were back in 2017, with all the big players and experienced investors involved.

That said, expecting Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in the next few weeks might be a little too optimistic. Even though it's been exciting to see the price climb lately, market cycles tend to take their time.

As for altcoins taking off right now, that's just Bitcoin's influence doing its thing. When people see Bitcoin doing well, they naturally want a piece of the action and start looking into promising altcoins.

I do believe that a repeat of 2020 (or 2016) would be a bit more likely result. Not something HUGE like the 2017 and 2021 ones, those were the big bull runs, I think we are getting into the year that would be just a little bit before that and it could result with something that may benefit everyone one way or another. Why would that be a good thing, why wouldn't we want 100k+ right away but like a year where we barely crack over 60k? Well that would mean we are both going up and giving people time to get in. After that in 2025 its obvious that we are going to have a huge uptick. Thats the four year cycle that we keep talking about and it would quite be similar in the end. We just need to make sure that things are going as smooth as possible during this period.

I think instead of going down, we will move towards new ATH price. We have seen previously a pattern followed by Bitcoins in every 4 year. Last time Bitcoins reached ATH price in 2020, so after 4 years that is in 2024, it is expected that Bitcoins will definitely touch a new ATH price. Still it’s not confirmed 100%. In crypto space anything and everything is possible. So we should always be prepared for the worst.

There is no way to repeat the same thing that happened way back 2017 because of these reasons:

Volatility: In 2017, the volatility of bitcoin was so high that selling of a few investors might have a significant impact on the price. If you compare
                 these days, Bitcoin has lesser volatility which can't hurt the price so much if there were huge selling pressure.

Support/Demand Zones: This an area or levels where small investors and institutions are likely to buy. There is a lot of demand in that area which
                                         helps to prevent the price to fall behind from unexpected dump.

Like I used to say, talk more to your chart rather than anyone, this is a market we are talking about, the behaviour of today is not a future indication of what the market will do. People could speculate, but be careful to use the speculation as it might not be what would eventually happen. You can see what happened already, it's a gradual deviation from what people expected, who knows if what would happen afterwards will be a deviation as well?

Regardless, with my technical chart studies, Bitcoin is bullish and the bullish trend is strong at this phase, therefore extreme caution is needed for the Bears, and if possible, the Bears should just go and sleep for now. Otherwise, the bearish movements might be either fake or negligible to earn them any tangible amount of success. Mind you, December is going gradually and almost half is gone, we should endeavour to only sell when we see the 1D and 1W charts confirming the bearish pattern altogether, especially when there has not been at least two consecutive daily and at least weekly close of the candlestick.

Above all, follow your chart, charts don't lie if you use them correctly.

Yes even I have same instinct as this year it would be different and logically even if ETF is delayed or even denied it shouldn't have huge impact on Bitcoin's price , while there may be uncertainty around altcoin. I feel even if the price of Bitcoin goes through correction still it can pump back right after the Halving which is a positive sign this time as Halving is happening after the mini bull we could call it for the period we are going through right now. I guess any correction if it may occur should be considered as great opportunity for accumulating before the halving for post halving expected bull run.

Hard to predict if prices gonna drop or enter a bear market in December 2023.  I don't think we've hit that kinda bull market yet though and  lots of folks say the bull will keep running through 2024.  We'll see I guess.

this year last quarter is different with that of 2017 because that year was actually a year after the bitcoin halving had occurred which was in 2016 July so it was just following the trend of bitcoin having a new ATH at that period just like that of 2021 too were bitcoin was at 69k. this year is a year before halving and in some past trends like that of 2019 it is supposed to be a bearish period but due to some of the saga in 2022 and how bearish it was some expert actually predicted this mini bull run before the eventual one next year or two. I will also say that the hype around this ETF has actually caused a FOMO which is having its effect on the price. as things are now i don't think we will face a major correction but that will depend on the ETF getting approved next year if it gets postponed again then i think a little price correction will set in, because some aren't actually in for a long term holding but to gain if the approval happens and it pumps the market a bit, should it be denied then some holdings might be sold off

There are some reasons why I doubt the 2017 trend will be different; Bitcoin was much cheaper at that time than it is now -- $900-$20,000 -- so it was easy for the coin to have an enormous pump all at once. When the last bull run started, it took a long time to pump and many corrections before it reached its peak. A difference from 2017 is that this started before the halving took place. I feel the trend this time is likely going to be like the 2021 with similar regular correction while it climb and no one will be able to know when we get to the peak for weeks untill the dip hard

We can really be able to tell that there's no one that could be able to predict on what the future looks like although we can see some patterns but doesnt mean that it would be a guarantee that it would be able to do the same thing on the upcoming months or years to come. At least having these kind of charts will really be telling us that there's really a significant pattern but there are people who dont believe on patterns
on which it is true because no one really knows on what would happen ahead whether it would really be following on the same path or not. Thing here is that we are going near with the halving event and it is really just that there are people who are really that being too positive on the things that we've been doing specially on accumulating on the coins that we are believing that it would really be shooting up its price
when bull run hits. Although it is really just that too early considering it would be on 2024 Q4 - 2025 the rest of it then it is really that too far off. For me then im waiting for the last dump or correction into the market on which i have been that trying out to save up some USDT for me to be able to get in when that time comes. If ever there's that last dump then it would be an advantage for me, but if there's none
then for sure you would really be losing that bull run train again. 

We probably won't see a big correction in the next few days or at this time, because even if there is a price correction in Bitcoin it won't immediately look like a bear market. I am more confident that this time there will be a difference with what happened in 2017 in Bitcoin even though I also haven't thought about the ATH that will happen directly this month because it is more unlikely that it will happen.

And for the increase in altcoins that is now starting to be seen, this is only because there is still the effect of the increase in the price of Bitcoin, causing the urge to buy more in some of the better cryptocurrencies after many people saw Bitcoin starting to increase its price this month.

And why would we see bear market now when we haven't had a new all time high? Remember that the last all time high is around $69k 2 years ago November 2021? So it doesn't make sense that a new pattern will emerge. Maybe this is just new for us because of the effects of the supposedly SEC imminent approval of Spot ETF and so everyone FOMO this last quarter of the year.

So I'm not seeing a major price correction that will trigger bear market for this month. Maybe just some minor decline, but I think the bulls are going to push the price to as close as $45k to $50k target this December. Which means the bullish sentiments of investors are at a high right now.

No one really holds the future of bitcoin, not even Satoshi itself. What happened last 2017 was a legend, as everyone did not expect that bitcoin will suddenly reach an all time high and those who have taken advantage of the bull season might have gained life changing profits and have been living comfortable lives these days. My point is, everything will still be possible with the current position of bitcoin. Who knows actually, as bitcoin is really positive these days and it's not impossible if we can see an early ATH since there are also no negative news that affect the market.

However, there are also chances that we will see the opposite from 2017. The market is so much unpredictable. We can see bitcoin on the top these days, but after tomorrow, I guess we will witness another price then.

2017 is a bull run year, you are correct. 2021 November was also a bull run year and we reach all time high as well. But what triggers this massive increased that we are seeing right now that everyone thinks that we are in a bull run is obviously the news about Spot Bitcoin ETF approval. We haven't heard or seen this in the previous years that's why December right looks very bullish.

As for the price correction who knows, the real test is that what will happen after the block halving next year in April? Will we see the pattern repeat again in 2024, that this is going to be huge rally and then seeing the price in 2025 to be at the 6 digits? For me this is a big possibility and that the pattern will not break.

I think there was a discussion about this, they call it super-cycle like 2 big cycles that is going to happen before all time high, but I disagree to that theory.

I mean that is supposedly the cycle is right? 2017 bull run, then followed by the bear market. So the pattern continues so not sure what you new trends are seeing here. So 2023 is pre-halving year, next year we will have the catalyst for the next bull then it might continue up to 2025.

So yeah, this is not a full pledge bull run, it's that investors are trying to push for a good price at least at the end of the year and again, for the preparation of a bitcoin block halving. So there's no new pattern, just the normal cycle that we have been seeing.

You can look the data in here:



https://www.coinglass.com/today

I look at the previous data between 2017 and 2021 in December it was the peak where ATH occurred on bitcoin, so indeed the month of December has an important bullish and bearish event pattern.

I don't think we're going to see a bear market now because it's already passed, if you refer to previous data bearish will occur after the halving whereas now the halving is getting closer and the month of December is now usually not going to be bearish instead what I see this being a leap will be the same as the previous cycle.
Like this will not be much different but I'm not sure now witnessing bearish again.

2017 was a cryptocurrencies market year and that year mark the beginning of a remarkable shift from what used to be the narrative of the market before then and how it was able to change a lot of investors who dived into the market before that time. 

But what makes that point different from the current trend is the anticipated bitcoin haven that is around the corner which is expected to happen around match April next year and that can also change a lot of things in the market for Bitcoin.

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?