POTENTIAL WINNERS
Overstock
The online retailer recently announced it would start accepting Bitcoin sometime this summer. Like most retailers who accept Bitcoin, it will immediately swap the currency for dollars to avoid price volatility. “We believe OSTK will benefit from lower transaction charges as it starts accepting Bitcoin in 2014 (as well as related publicity push within the bitcoin community),” Luria writes.
ebay
Luria thinks its inevitable PayPal, which is owned by the, online merchant giant will start taking Bitcoin. “We see EBAY’s PayPal benefiting from lower funding costs when it allows Bitcoin in its digital wallet,” he writes.
IBM
IBM quietly released a video in November in which its executive architect for banking and finance said cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin “would change the world.” “We believe IBM has become an early adopter of bitcoin technology (link), but other technology companies may benefit from the buildup of the crypto currency network almost unwittingly,” Luria writes.
Taiwan Semiconductor and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Only a small handful of chipmakers have the ability to manufacture the advanced processors needed to mine Bitcoin. TSM and AMD are the two largest. “We estimate >$200 million has already been spent on Bitcoin network (mining) equipment this year, most meaningfully on chip fabricators TSM and AMD,” Luria says.
POTENTIAL LOSERS
Western Union and MoneyGram
Bitcoin’s value as a medium for transferring funds is the thing most often cited to justify its valuation. We’ve written about this previously here and here among other places. “We see some risk to money transfer companies such as WU and MGI as bitcoin technology makes it possible to perform remittance at a radically lower price,” Luria writes.
Visa and MasterCard
Another source of value for Bitcoin is the much lower fees needed to process payments, compared with those charged by the mega card companies. “We also see some longer-term threat to V and MA, especially in cross border and micro payments,” Luria writes.
CME, NASDAQ, NYMEX
There’ve yet to be any major breakdowns on this subject, and Luria doesn’t provide much insight, though it seems possible Bitcoin trading could siphon away flows from precious metals. “Although this may be even further out, we see a potential for the technology to encroach on exchange companies such as CME, NYX, NDAQ,” he writes
Potential Winner: Worldwide online betting and gambling industry.
Potential Loser: Worldwide remittance industry.