I agree 30 is the new 20.
But in all seriousness, the original high was at 35%. I myself went with 30% for the forseable future as the new average.
Yet I felt that going with the yearly average helps people take the time and at least contemplate what to expect the network difficulty to be at the time hardware ships. That rate is only for 12 days at 20% and 10.8 days at 30% increases. Knowing this everyone can see, at current rate paying for pre-orders at today's hardware asking price by manufacturers is a loosing bet.
With respects investing and potential returns, do not forget about capital preservation.
Buying bitcoin gives you a greater return going in.
Without taking all the risk.
Lets not forget that as we fund these manufacturers we are also enabling them to be our future completion.
However that has always been the reality. The silver lining is that the public did get to participate in this technology boom. Enabling the decentralized bitcoin network to flourish.
We should help newcomers realize that the potential return on investment when it comes to purchasing hardware vs manufacturing leaves all miners at the generosity of the manufacturer.
Imagine how different the network difficulty would have been transitioning to GPU technology if AMD decided to run their own farm rather then sell hardware?
Topic: Would A Cointerra unit be a good purchase at this point? (Read 1689 times)
The numbers are based from a low Network Difficulty Increase of 20% every 12 Days.
20% per 12 days is not just low, its borderline nonsensical. We are now at 35% growth per 12 days and thats before any of these new asics have hit the network.
The only way we could stay even close to the current growth rate is if all those vendors fuck up production and delivery in which case, you are calculating the ROI of devices no one will actually have, or BFL/Avalon/Bitfury miners.
Even 30% seems highly optimistic.
Well if you factor in 20% growth in network at the minimum then you can expect the network difficulty to be in the 700s by the time it is shipped.
The difficulty dates selected are from the manufacturer's expected shipping date start. The numbers are based from a low Network Difficulty Increase of 20% every 12 Days.
And as always here is the link to the updated estimate both 20% and 30% increases.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing
You can follow along with future updates here.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3156061
If they deliver on time, this will surely be 
+1
If they deliver on time, this will surely be
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