Topic: Would you invest in Bitcoin if it only rose 10% per year from now on? (Read 539 times)

I think that as long as it increases everything is fine, calmly bitcoin is not going to increase 10% annually because it is not going to have less profitability than leaving the money in a bank, although in a bank it is not capable of reaching even 24% annually, the good thing about BTC is that it does not depend on centralized economic theories and controlled by entities like governments, here it moves by supply and demand, saying that it is going to grow 10% would be a fallacy, because obviously 105 can easily be obtained in a small impulse.

sure thing, that returns means it's still above inflation for most of the countries, but I still believe the bearish cycle and bullrun cycle will still persists, so we can occasionally buy the dips and DCA, so the return will be more than 10% per year.

even gold annual change just doesn't stick to 10%, it varies, same thing with BTC, if ever the market cap is nearing that of gold, I'm pretty sure it will still retain the intrinsic characteristic of having occasional bullruns.

i'm sure even after BTC market capitalization is as huge as gold, the annual change would still be 30-50%, need to take into account as well about the BTC lost over the course of decades, it does have the chance to influence the price of BTC and making it rise higher.

I think risk is subjective, that's why I mentioned Nouriel Roubini et al. If your risk profile is like his, then 10% surely isn't worth the risk.
However, on the other side of the spectrum, you'll still see people who think this 10% is as safe as gold. In this case, it's like a "guaranteed" 10% p.a.
There's no right or wrong in this since it's personal (as seen from the topic's title).

Any trader that knows how to read charts technically will agree with me that ranging markets are part of price action and this can never be a long term thing as sooner or later it will breakout...the problem Bitcoin is facing is that people have figured out the potential of these markets and will sell at any given bull to get some profit as they know some whales or institutional investors are waiting to buy discounted coins and price will easily bounce back.

But can this ranging market go on forever no, is the 10% raise each year feasible,  no as this isn't a one way  street when buyers and sellers and playing tag of war.

I can invest in BTC if it rose 10% per year no, trading short-term can give me more profits than holding long term.

Does it matter if it increases in just that bit in a year?

Something I’ve learnt from rich guys, you’re better off having your money in an investment than having it saved out somewhere.

I would definitely take up Bitcoin investment, the much I can with what I do know now of it. Having your money saved in some bank would not earn you the same value, not even 10% in a year.

Don’t forget, it’s out there to make you money and you don’t get taxed on your shares which your Bitcoin investment can count as that because, it could either make you profit or losses and as such, it becomes a way to just earn and be taxed on what you declare if need be.

If in fact the price of Bitcoin continues to increase at a rate of 10%, I am very worried that the number of Bitcoin holders will decrease and the number of sells will increase. If this cycle lasts for 3/4 years, the price of Bitcoin will drop completely, maybe its price will be like that of the creation age. Which will be one of the worst history of bitcoin world.

People are opportunists, and I am no exception. In my opinion, if the price of Bitcoin really goes to protrain, I will hold the first year and sell it the second year. I will start holding again after selling. And in the third year I will sell again.

Yep. Still looks pretty solid to me to profit from even if I consider that I do DCA. I'd actually much rather prefer a stable-ish market with small profits here and there in the long run instead of this huge pumps and dumps that most people want for a get-rich-quick idea. After al having a stable market means that the market will reliably last for a longer time, making long term investments to it much more valuable, which is what I'm primarily looking for with Bitcoin.

And I own it in every aspect. Who would hate that?

What we should have at the back of our minds while investing in bitcoin is that it is not a get rich scheme where we invest and begin to expect profits within a short interval of time. Perhaps, 1, 2, 3 years is even early for one to start considering the profits he has been able to make from his investment in bitcoin and moreover, it also depends on your level of accumulation that can tell how much profits you can be able to make if the price of bitcoin rises by 10% (assumption) each year and another thing we also need to understand is that we shouldn't be more concerned about the profits we can be able to make within the years of our investment in bitcoin but we should be proud we are HODLING a valuable asset that has the potentials to surge to an incredible milestone at a time we least expected due to market volatility and with the fact that the market hasn't experienced any extreme DIP should also give us confidence that we can never be at lost in our investment, so if peradventure our investment didn't get any much profits when our target is met based on the numbers of years we planned to HODL, then we should just see it as a kinda savings strategy.

As people are selling their bitcoins that's how others are seeing it as an opportunity to buy at a DIP when the price falls so there is no way the market wouldn't be balanced so definitely i will still choose to invest and hold bitcoin regardless of the percentage it tends to increase each year.

well the downside of 10% is 2x every 7 years is better if you are 20 than if you are 70.


but if you can put 300k into it at the age of 70 you get 30k a year income.

@fuguebtc, I'm not saying you don't have the right, gold is something that people value for thousands of years, real estate also has its value, so do market shares and bonds - but I would say that Bitcoin is very successfully establishing itself as a new and modern asset for those people who can understand its advantages over gold and real estate. It's true that we don't know what the future holds for us, but I think that Bitcoin has an advantage in the fact that it has a max supply and that it has a predetermined protocol for mining, and therefore there are no possible surprises from that side - while no one knows how much gold there actually is that is already mined, and even less as much as there is still to be mined.

In any case, no matter how profitable something is, it's always smart to look for alternatives - diversification has always been and will be the only way to reduce the risks that inevitably come with all investments.

I agree that every investment has risks but for me: if compare bitcoin with other assets like gold or real estate...bitcoin is still much riskier. An asset that is not even recognized worldwide and can be banned by governments at any time, the capitalization and liquidity of the entire market is just over $1 trillion, the price is easily manipulated by big players...Not to mention, bitcoin is too young, it is only 16 years old and for an asset, it cannot be called mature and safe enough. It is not like gold, which has existed for thousands of years and gone through many world wars, great depressions, the collapse of many economies...but still exists firmly until now.

Everyone has different views on investment and I find everyone is willing to invest in it even if the return is just 10% per annum. But for me, if the risk level remains as high as it is now but the returns drop significantly, I will not invest in it anymore. Or if there is any more potential investment, I would not hesitate to move there.

A certainty of at least 10% gain in BTC would double its price probably despite that idea being contradictory, we can be sure the demand would rise put it that way.  Its already a positive asset despite being so volatile and unknown in its base characteristics.

Add some certainty or stability and BTC is greatly enhanced in its outlook and appeal to a wider population of users.   We always have the gamblers in Bitcoin right from the start, risk takers have been here but thats not the broad appeal BTC could have in the end.

I always say this when BTC is going sideways, drifting, positive then selling off and people lose patience and declare it negative and sell even.   The underlying base price is given some positive when we drift, as we accumulate volume at these higher prices especially it will turn out to be of benefit to BTC longer term imo.   Only 10% is more then it appears, theres never a singular price in any market it varies on delivery etc.  But bullish even in slight quiet markets is fair.

10% is way more better than on what banks do offer on which in speaking on per annum basis on which hands down or there's no doubt that you would be saving up your money in Bitcoin form.

Just like on what you have said that this isnt how Bitcoin or crypto works and even if we do speak about "What If's?" then it will something that drive out people to go for another venture.
We do know that people doesnt really like on really just that having on potential 10% per year kind of gain but rather it is really that something more better.

People will really be just that basically be trying out to find that could give out that x2 of their money or even more.This what makes that this crypto market do really looks interesting because of that kind of
probability or opportunity that does it give.

If it wasn't really be on this way then we wont really be seeing that huge funds that will really be flowing into this market. This isnt something that you can be able to compare or
trying out to look it similar on what those traditional investments or set-ups do really give out or offer about.

What exact risk are you talking about? Are you afraid of the possibility that someone will hack Bitcoin, that governments around the world will ban trading through CEX or maybe ban mining? Maybe you're afraid of some other risks that I didn't mention - but realistically, most investments are risky, especially if the person who invests is not familiar with what exactly he's doing.

For me personally, the benefits of investing in BTC are still far greater than all possible risks, and I don't think that will change in the near future.

Yes, if bitcoin's risk remains the same but the return drops to just 10% per year, it will no longer be attractive. Personally I would not be foolish enough to invest in an asset with high risk but negligible profit margin. A fixed profit of 10% will be an attractive profit when compared to bank deposits, business...but people forget to consider the level of risk, if the level of risk is still high then it is not worth it for us to trade off.

But if bitcoin was as safe as gold or stocks and returned 10% per year, it wouldn't be a bad investment. But I will not focus most of my time and money on bitcoin as I am now, instead I will look for another potential market.

Yes, I would still invest even if it only rose by 10% as long as that percentage increase is consistent then I feel it's a good investment to embark on instead of engaging on investments that doesn't have an assurance. For someone like me who save a lot, the interest I get on my annual savings are not even up to 10% most can be like 5% to 7% annually but I still do them regardless because I am not attracted to the possibility of outsized profits and I prefer it to anything involving volatility.

I have never pretended that profit is not important, but I have also always believed that we must not forget why Bitcoin was created and that its greatest value is precisely in the way it works, and that way allows everyone to be their own bank and make a transaction anytime with anyone in the world. Likewise, Bitcoin has proven to be an excellent hedge against inflation in the last ten years, and as far as I know, it has overtaken all possible assets in this regard.

I would also be ready to accept some losses on an annual basis, but I will repeat that we who have been in all this for a long time and have invested at much lower prices than today have much more tolerance for volatility than some new investors.

People who say no to this have absolutely no clue what the yare missing out. Having a stable 10% return, and guaranteed one, for 40 years, means you are going to be wealthy. I mean of course there are people who will miss that chance too, because they have no clue what they are doing, but I can guarantee you that you are going to make a huge return when you do this for long term. I can start investing today, and be a millionaire by year 20, and have everything I can dream of, it's just that simple.

How many people could say the same, how many people in the world who worked for 20 years or more, and have a million dollars? Not many. You know what's the good part about this theory? Bitcoin will continue to average more than 10% a year. Sure it can have bad years, but if you check on 5 year periods, it will have 10% return per year averages then. This is why we need to keep investing, we are not late to the party at all, we are still early and we gotta just keep investing.

But you need to consider also the fact that the guarantee of increasing 10% per year is not 100%. Because we don't know what the future holds for this market. The possibility is limitless but how about when a certain technology becomes obsolete.
You can confidently talk such decision if you also have strong belief that this market will continuously survive and improve its developments. The rate is quite big if you compare it with traditional banking. So if there's a guarantee of that price increase each year, definitely, a lot will invest on this market. However, there's no certainty for this price increase because this market is still unpredictable up until now.

Finally a fundamentals-based opinion I agree fully, Bitcoin doesn't lose its unique freedom-related advantages (censorship resistance, "be your own bank") if the APY decreases.

I would thus be even a bit tolerant to small losses per year (if this bearish phase isn't too long) for this reason, but of course, BTC has to stay somewhat valuable as well.

In my scenario, i.e. when Bitcoiners became "accustomed" to smaller returns but the pattern is stable for 2-3 years, the risk of catastrophic bear markets would probably be a bit lower than now. The past 70-90% bear markets were simply the other side of the FOMOish bubbles, as they were triggered by big waves of profit taking when the price increase in the euphoria phase of the bull market was perceived as an exaggeration.

In the "10 % anually" scenario, profit taking would probably take place in a less concentrated fashion. People would take profit when they need money and not when their fear rises that the bubble could burst at any time.

I would not hesitate for a moment to answer that I would be completely satisfied with only 10% per year, which is far better than anything that any bank or investing in government bonds can offer me. Honestly, for me it's not just about the profit (although I won't say it's unimportant), but that I liked being my own bank.

Of course, there is obviously a big difference between those who have, say, 0.10 BTC and 1 BTC, because those who have much more will mostly be satisfied with 10%, others of course will not be nearly satisfied.

I will only speak for myself because I don't know for others. Even if bitcoin do only 10% on yearly basis I will still invest in it. For the fact that bitcoin is self custodian I will invest in bitcoin rather than invest it in something else that I won't have total control over. Moreover 10% is still profit, it is better than not investing the money at all. I will still invest in it because I like the idea that bitcoin represents and not just the profit that I will generate from it. If I choose not to invest because the ROI has dropped, it signify that I was only in bitcoin because of the profit and not for the ideology behind bitcoin. Bitcoin is freedom and hope that's why I will keep investing in it.

10% increase per year might not be enough to duel on but we can benefit from the market following the purpose of our investment. Various reasons why we chose to invest, some as savings but the most reasons are because of the profits we get during the final stage of our investment which takes just more than a year, precisely 4-5 and plus years before hitting the climax, if by the number of years, one might have accumulated an increase of 10% annually into added years, it already would amount to a better figure, not the best outcome but considering the idea of savings and some retirement plans it is still a good investment following how preferable it is compared to saving in banks, no profits attached and likely to face inflation in the economy.

Of course I will do still invest like to convince myself that if the fund was to be saved in the bank, I am either going to keep being taxed for maintenance services rather than earning profit at all.

So if Investing on Bitcoin would only give me a 10% profit, it would be profitable compared to the commercial banks.

Infact in a mathematical algorithm regarding that we could experience the Bitcoin bull-run in the circles of each 4 years, the 10% of each year would give me 40% if I should expect to make profit in a bull-run which is 4 years circle.
So if we can actually hold patiently 4 to make it big, we can as well take the price profits gradually yearly for 4 years. So, I can afford to invest on Bitcoin if only the profit would be accounted on yearly basis.

Hypothetically if the risk is still the same but now the return is "only" 10% p.a as per OP's clarification, it's not as sexy as before, and indeed, return-wise, the Bitcoin market competes with the stock market (more precisely the US market). However, not all people have access to the US market, which is the most profitable one. I'd still see it as a good option at least in my country where the local stock market is crap, and using a global broker is a hassle plus greatly taxed. People, especially those who don't have access to the US stock market will still invest, but the question is how much % of their portfolio will be put there, surely there will be rebalancing because of expected return vs risk.

7 years is really long to go, 7 years ago, people were very happy and not depressed, after Covid 19 happened, people are tend to spend most of their time on screen.

I would rather to invest in hyped big caps shitcoins, I might earn 20% in just few months, it's faster than investing in Bitcoin. But, Bitcoin will be my choice as my biggest investment, I don't need to stress myself to think about my end game. As long as I hold in Bitcoin, I feel safe.

I'll bet many serious investors would take a healthy 10% return on investment every
year. What other investment would yield those returns? few if any I would say. The
question is why are they not in already because the returns are larger now! Is it the
perceived volatility that is a deterrent I wonder?

For those with huge wealth a 10% return is massive, for those with small amounts
to invest I suppose 10% is not that attractive, its certainly not "wen lambo"

The future of Bitcoin price is uncertain, because no one can say what Bitcoin price will be until now. But by looking at past price history we can definitely be sure about future prices. It mentions a 10% average price benefit over a few years, though uncertain. So I think the benefit will be several times more than keeping money in the bank from this Bitcoin, because if you can invest now according to the past price demand, then surely you can get future results. That's why we must take risks, knowing the only risk is that those willing to take the risk in investing in Bitcoin will only reap the future benefits, and we can assume that it is generally safe.

I agree with you, for an asset you give a 10% Roi per year means its really a valid asset, banks don't give you that, even if you get that from banks in our dreams its still a fixed Roi unlike bitcoin that can give you way more than that.

in the case of the "negative" as you expressed, might just be a retracement on chat.

From all indications bitcoin has proven to give ZERO losses when invested in.

1
1.1
1.21
1.331
1.4641 four year return
1.61051
1.771561
1.9487171 seven years time

Only a fool would say no to 2x your value every 7 years.

Until now the results of the poll are unanimously positive, i.e. everybody voted for the two "Yes" options. What I wonder of course is if this is only because of "socially expected" behaviour.

I would love some well fundamented "No" answers as well

Some remarks to the posts until now:

1) Some have mentioned that they would invest if the 10% were guaranteed. I would however not go as far as that. In the OP I wrote about a scenario where we had 2 or 3 years with an average price increase of 10%. So some risk would be still involved.

The scenario I had in mind is that the 10% pattern would be approximately seen by a part of the community as a relatively "safe" pattern, but not a "guaranteed" one. For example, influencers would talk about the 10% pattern like they are now talking about the "4-year cycle" or "Stock 2 Flow". But there would no entity guaranteeing to buy all dips in years with negative price evolution.

2) Some mentioned the comparison to the stock market. I think this is indeed an interesting comparison. The scenario I had in mind is basically: "Bitcoin behaves like a major stock market index", or like an (stock) ETF with a portfolio comprising several sectors of the economy.

Taking into account these two clarifications, however, I personally would still look at fundamental data for that decision, like on-chain and L2 transactions, adoption by merchants, and user base studies like the ones published by Crypto.com and Triple A.

10% per year is already huge!!!
If you ever get this constantly, this is better than putting your hard-earned money in your bank. Plus in the long term, you will still earn much because of compounding.

But in reality, this is not how Bitcoin works, sometimes we can get more than 10%, or sometimes is negative .

I have been investing in the S&P 500 for many years, which has that average annual return. Investing in bitcoin if it only gave me the same as the S&P I could keep doing it but maybe I would just keep holding and accumulate more than the Nasdaq 100, which I started investing in, and it has a historical return of 13% average annual return.

If I'm going to keep accumulating bitcoin it's because I think many years down the road it's going to give higher returns than that 10%.

The truth is we invest in bitcoin and we all expect to earn at least x2 or more x5, x10...many even believe that bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in the coming years. Overall, people's expectations are high and that's why they invest in bitcoin. So I would be skeptical of anyone who says that even if the price of bitcoin only increased by 10% per year, they would still invest in bitcoin.

It's no surprise that many people still say they would invest in bitcoin with that kind of return because it's still better than putting money in the bank. But I believe if we're being honest with each other, I don't think there will be many people investing in bitcoin anymore.


For me, if that happens and there is no investment that gives better returns at that time, I will still invest in bitcoin but if there is any investment that has the potential to give better returns than bitcoin. I would not hesitate to choose it over continuing to invest in bitcoin.

In addition, it also depends on some other factors such as my capital, risk level...I will consider and be flexible according to the situation at that time.

I voted for sure.  
10% APY is great.
With that percentage, you will have a hard time getting those gains somewhere else. And if that's a guaranteed gain, everyone is saying that it's still one of the best choices out of all the assets and investments that we can ever see and I agree with that. Most of the shares or stocks that we can choose are also volatile so that 10% is still a win. I can be sitting pretty while waiting for 0.8333% gain monthly.

If it's guaranteed 10% p.a then it's still an awesome deal. In comparison, the money market or bonds can yield about 6% p.a in my country and it's "guaranteed" in the sense of low risk, except if there's a financial crisis or whatever doomsday scenario. The problem is that the risk associated with Bitcoin is still the same (from the eye of Nouriel Roubini et al.) so 10% p.a might not be worth it considering the risk.

I'd rather buy the dip and sell at the rebound though if sideways is the new normal.

I voted for: For sure!.

I mean it's the only crypto that I put majority of my portfolio, and so even if it will just give me 10% per year, I think it is still good as compare if you are going to invest on some altcoins that the risk is too high. Or it is like gambling per se with those meme coins and other hype coins.

Still better returns on some banks though, or at least it the margin of profit can still cover inflation on some major countries.

I will still invest in Bitcoin even if the increase of the price only 10% per year. I don't mind to continue my DCA because I have the other ways to earn more profit which is I can use trading to gain the profit. Besides that, we have altcoin that can be alternative to make a profit although that will not easy to pick the right coins. If the 10%+ really holds for 2-3 years, I will not have a problem because that means, I have much time to running my DCA and accumulate more Bitcoin so when the bull run comes, I will be more ready to sell at the new ATH.

Yep I still invest in Bitcoin even it's give 10% per year return, I would consider it as a gold.

But, I won't put all of my money on Bitcoin since it's no longer profitable, I will choose to invest in altcoins or smaller stocks which can give higher return.

Personally I think average inflation rate is 10% in most of countries, even they write 4%-6%, even Bitcoin didn't make profit, but it can still hedging against inflation.

Still better than stocks, bank deposits, bonds/RTB, treasure notes/bills, REITs and other traditional assets that would give like 3%-10% annual profit.

So, in short, I'd still be holding it and I don't have something to do with it yet and that's why it's best to be kept there. But take note that 10% would be higher when we're holding more and that holdings came from the 2018 and other bearish years.

It's still one of the best performing assets out there, maybe for this decade if not in the century.

The Stock Market gives an average of around 7%-8% return annually and if Bitcoin will give us 10% per year, that would still be higher than the other popular asset classes out there including the stock market.

I would say that I will still invest into Bitcoin if the 10% annual return would be consistent. Well, I know that it will not be because whenever we enter the bear market, so does most of the asset classes. If this happens though, I will have to recalculate and readjust my overall portfolio. Instead of putting more into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general, I would put more on Stocks that are giving dividends annually because that would be much safer at least. 10% is still a high increase considering how much other asset classes like stocks, bonds and others are giving on a yearly basis.

Well, I know that this is hypothetical only like you said OP, and we know that this will not happen... or at least not in many years because of the speculative feature of it that you said already.

If the price of Bitcoin increases by even 10% per year then it is definitely possible to profit by holding it for a long term in the future. Because instead of keeping money in the bank, if we invest in Bitcoin for a long time, then we will get better returns from Bitcoin investment. Since if we look at the long history of Bitcoin price in the past then Bitcoin has only gone up and the price has increased since the beginning, so if we assume that Bitcoin is growing at a rate of approximately 10% every year from the present time then the next 10 to 15 years will have huge benefits.  .

And I added some more strategies it is very easy to get more and more profit in Bitcoin every year, because Bitcoin dips, if bought at the right time and hold for long time, it is possible to get 10%+ more profit in Bitcoin in next few years. 
 Because we should buy dips every few times every month when bitcoin is dumping then we will make huge profit at the end of the year.

Thanks for all replies already. The poll participation could however be a bit higher

The reason I started this poll is because eventually, Bitcoin's price will increase with a slower rhythm. We don't know when this will happen, it could be already this year or next year, albeit it's unlikely (see the recent spike to 71k+).

However, if people expect too much and only invest in Bitcoin to "gamble", then eventually if such a slowdown to 10% or a similar number per year happens, there could be danger that a big part of the investors will sell and move on to other risk assets, e.g. back to stocks, or to altcoins.

But that probably will not happen if the fundamentals still stay solid. This means: if Bitcoin gets really adopted, i.e. if we se a growth in the likely user base along with the number of merchants and service providers. And not only the volume on exchanges. In this case, a 10%-returning Bitcoin would be, in my opinion, an excellent investment.

Currently we are not there still. Speculative usage is still too prevalent. And that's also one of the reason why in some groups Bitcoin has a quite bad image: they think it's a tool for rich people to get even richer, without social benefits.

For these reasons my vote also went to "Only if the fundamentals are solid." Solid fundamentals means, as I wrote, that we can "feel" and also measure an organic growth, not only a speculative growth.

It wont be 10% in every country even if its 10% in some, every population's perspective varies as do their own local economies.   Also there is a benefit from a slower moving price, stability in price prediction probably aids good business.
 Agreements made to supply can suffer less adjustment if the value relatively stable like that, I believe it actually encourages commerce and so usage of BTC across the world.  Its ironic in a positive way as this would stimulate BTC fundamentals most likely.   Price in every market is not a perfect description of value, literally the market can demand a lower price even while that product becomes more useful and in technology this is not that unusual.

This is a very big profit if you are speaking from the angle a banker because not too many investment can guarantee 10% profits per year. There are several reasons I will invest in Bitcoin with 10% per year even if I know other investment that can give a little above that. One of the key reason is that Bitcoin has liquidity far more than even real estate and other asset classes. You can easily cash out the funds without stress unlike when you want to sell a property. In addition, Bitcoin gives me complete control of my investment and the only effort I need to put is in securing my assets. There are many other reasons that makes Bitcoin a beautiful option even with 10% increase per annum.

Yes, even if Bitcoin doesn't go higher than 10% in value per year from now on I will still be investing in it and holding that investment for at least 10 years or more to get better profits. I'm someone who believes that Bitcoin could reach way higher values in future, and if that becomes a reality then even if it grows by 10% per year and also some extra growth due to dip purchasing then there's chance that I might end up with more than 10% profit per year because of dip buying.

I would also trade Bitcoin as there's chance that I might earn more profit with trading then holding it for a long year but I'll still be accumulating it for long term holding and also dividing some money to trading it so I can earn profits no matter if it grows by 10% per year. The crypto market is still quite volatile and even Bitcoin is still very volatile but even if it gives only 10% profit per year I will still invest in it.

In the stock exchange market, there are assets that rarely could give 2% to 4% ROI per annum. So for Bitcoin to give such a return then it's a good asset to invest in right now. We shouldn't be expecting 100% or 50% return from Bitcoin every year. That is not how it is designed. From past event it has done a lot more better so if the pattern changes now then its more for the greater good. It will give more opportunities to people like me to be able to afford some fractions of it before it goes higher than this.

Your analysis is hypothetically true. But the reason why most people invest in Bitcoin is not because of its annual performance rather its more about its performance in a complete cycle or a decade. So we see Bitcoin increase with a mean percentage of 12% each year. Then in five years, it's 48% which is a good profit to an investor.

This means that investors who understand the importance of long-term benefits will continue to invest in Bitcoin. Because it will be more about the value of your accumulation.

I'm not sure for certain if I can maintain investing in bitcoin if such is already guaranteed for the main time. The answer will be yes because bitcoin is one of the digital assets I can entrust my wealth with, and I don't have to be thinking about the fear of crash or inflation. Second,  it's better to secure that 10-20% annual interest than to hold my savings in my local currency, which devalues every single day. At least I can be rest assured of profit from two angels. 
 
But as time goes on, it continues, and I can't be too certain if my investment decision will still be with bitcoin or not. Like it or not, one of the major reasons why most of us invest and hold bitcoin is because of the expected profit margin, irrespective of how long it will take to give us that.

If the average annual increase is 10% for bitcoin, then it is certainly still an asset that provides good returns compared to bank deposits. If bitcoin is still supported by sound fundamentals and its real use cases are increasing, then 10% is still worth considering instead of burning it on altcoins.

On the other hand, I might cut my investment budget if this pattern is confirmed. I will diversify into several assets that also provide the same return percentage, or it could be lower with low risk too. But anyway, I hope that such a pattern will not really happen to bitcoin.

There are many reasons I would invest in bitcoin but for the poll I solidly stand with "if only the fundamentals are solid". If I could invest in bitcoin and it gives me a 10% return per annual is far better than having my money in fiat for a year.

For the 10%+ in 2-3 years I would only invest if there are no other better investment that can give higher than bitcoin could give but if comfort has a role to play in this then bitcoin would be my only option.

Bitcoin price is currently again increasing a bit, but if we look into the longer term charts, we're still caught in a sideways market since March.

What if this becomes the "new normal"? Let's say Bitcoin rises, from now on, only about 10 % per year. Perhaps 8 or 13%, but not 25% or more.

The ATH in March already could have been a "prophetic event" in this case. We could see ATHs each year, but they would be only a few percentage points higher than the previous' year's ATHs.

This is purely hypothetic: I would like to know if the Bitcointalk members would still invest in Bitcoin in this case if this pattern is confirmed. Later I'll post my reasons for this poll and my own decision.

It is highly encouraged to post your reasons for your decision, for example if they are related to fears that people could be selling because of an underwhelming price evolution. But for clarity, let's assume the 10%+ pattern really holds for 2-3 years. Would you, in this case, still invest?


Edit: Just to compare: currently the average Bitcoin returns per year, if we "level out" bullish bubbles and bearish dips and take the years since 2019 (average price around $8000), are around 50%.

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Clarification (added 31/10): The question does not refer necessarily to a guaranteed 10% APY, but a relatively stable pattern of several years with price increase rates e.g. between 5 and 15% and occasional dips.