I know this is pure speculation. But would it be worth spending 41LTC on a miner that arrives in Sept?
If difficulty stays the same yes. But what makes difficulty go up? More hashing power. Where would more come from Bitmain and a couple other manufacturers. Do we think manufacturers will sell more hashing power between now and late September, you bet. How much? No one knows exactly. I have preorder for august batch.
I'm fully prepared for 4x difficulty and as low as $20 LTC in mid aug. That would be about $5 gross a day and atleast 50% probable outcome.
I'd be prepared for upto 8x difficulty and $20 LTC in late sept. That would be $2.50 a day and impossible to ROI.
If sales took a hit, it wouldn't shock me if they propped LTC prices to $50-100 if they are not fighting negative market conditions. At 8x diff and $50 LTC, gross is $6.25 daily, at $100 LTC it is $12.50 daily which is historically normal ROI. Once we normalize, I'd expect 3 month preorders to stop and readily available batches to be shipping within 5 days of ordering. The difficulty ascent should slow down precipitously. L3+ ROI should become more in line with S9 units.
I think April/may batch was extremely lucky. I think this was all planned to sell immediately available units on Hashnet at market prices and get massive tranches of preorders worth 10s of millions or more.
Thats is some good analysis there, there are risks everywhere
