How did you determine the price is too high at any given point in time in for example the south seas bubble?
The only question to ask is if the slope was always constant in manias. I don't know. I can't find any detailed price data on past manias.
This is not an investment folks. It is a mania. It is entirely driven by demographics and emotions.
We don't have any earnings to calculate. There is no possibility of doing NAV discounting based on future revenue.
indeed:on one side we have to calculate the emotions of people gaining big watching their gains desappear, on the otherside we have to calculate wall street guys stepping in and badly needing an accumualtion phase. No way it can go striaght up from here. I see 2 scenarios:
extension to 1600/800 and crash, direct crash to 460.
crash to 460. Done.