Topic: WTS 71 Gh/s Avalon Unit in hand - overnight shipping (Read 4053 times)

Ouch! On a good note for people like you that already have them, that means yours are worth more (and earn more) right now.

Ranlo - No warranties that I know of and its much worse than that. The people who were shipped broken units etc have been ignored for months on end by the time they do get their unit replaced the units will have significantly less value.

Can you post a link for that? If its the actual modules then I would worry a bit if its one of the other components then not so much.

Yeah, this is my biggest fear. The technology is still new, which means unforeseen things are going to happen. Do Avalons have warranties?

Someones  batch 1 Avalon is messing up already.   things can happen.

I expect it to... but then again we got a brand new Plasma a few years back that after 13 months the main board fried on it and the cost of the board alone was more than the TV was worth.

If you buy a TV from the store, do you expect it to last for years?  With the way manufacturing is done these days, I sure as hell don't.  Everything is so cheaply made now a days.  Bring back LEAD solder.... This ROHS shit is crap!

Ebola - I fully expect these modules to last for years. Of all the units out there so far to date I haven't heard of a single module having issues. The weaker parts are replaceable (ie: power supply, network router etc). Even if one of the three modules failed you could just take it and put it in another unit since each has room for four modules.

Do you have the MTBF for these units?  If so your points would stand merit however there are no stats like this on ANY ASIC devices that I know of.  Its 100% gambling if you are in it for the money and not the security of the coin.  Which, lets be honest with ourselves a fair majority of people on this forum are here strictly to make fast cash.

market will remain irrational longer than you will remain solvent.

I completely get where you're coming from, but the problem here is that there's no telling how long the devices will last. Along with this, Bitcoins could go up in value (meaning what you've mined is worth more), but in that case you could have purchased more Bitcoins up-front and just held on to them.

It's really all a matter of how you look at it.

I'm glad you got your problem fixed, though, and I do wish you luck!

I feel bad for most people because they want to make their money back in 3 to 4 months instead of projecting years out. I think right now its impossible to buy anything you can make your money back in a few months with especially pre orders. This is going to be very interesting as all the speculators that are looking for quick returns get out of mining.

I took them down btw because I fixed my power problem (I hope) and have redone my analysis and feel I will make more for these over the life of the unit than I would get selling them.

Good cause you were never going to get what you wanted.

These units are no longer for sale. I have taken down the offer.

I think if we experience a crash like that, ASIC's are the least of our worries, :p.

What if theres a crash and btc is at $10 ppl want out of the game. Fear can bring in a deal.

This is hard to say because what people seem to fail to realize is that the more affordable they get, the more people will buy. Ex:

If they run $100 for 1 TH/s, I may buy 10

People will say "that's too expensive, wait until they are $10 per TH!"

Now they are $10 for 1 TH/s, so I buy 100

In essence, I am still getting the same amount of relative hashrate. It doesn't matter if I buy it now for a higher cost or later for a lower one. Either way, the more affordable they are the more EVERYONE is going to buy, and the more you have to buy to keep competitive.

Those who hold longest will probably get it the cheapest. But will it be worth it by then?

no what 

no, those are generic aluminum industrial racks.

is this really in USA? that is a  rack easily found in China, here at home I have one of that

they are not in recommended position which is horizontal, making the alluminium weaker every day if you intend to sell, think about it arriving damaged.

you got them last week why not run then?

look how many units with one guy - funny how avalon fights descentralization with centralization

He will def get over 3 grand..theres also no way he is going to sell it that low either.

this guy wont get over $3000 for any miner thats the fair market rate making 1btc @ $100 for 30 days.

Sorry but this is a buyers market now they dictate the price. The early adopters already sold theirs om ebay the smart ones atleast. The op will have to keep using or sell at a loss most likely taking a few years to make his money back and then throwing it away for pennies with a few years lost and extra stress.

Thats the sad truth.

I already was saying when bfl failed to deliver the first time that  ebay will be offering asics at 10th of original retail price. Thats the time to buy not a penny more.

I agree on the GPU stuff above. You are better off just shutting down your GPU miners or switching them to an scrypt based coin (though I am not sure even how profitable those are right now).

250 BTC is quite steep for what you're offering in today's landscape.

nice excel formula.

*cringes* please don't post things like this... it depresses me, lol.

The "when" is when difficulty is over ~50M, which will happen roughly in September IMO, when they make less than the cost of power consumption.

(Following table is for a card making 650MH@250W, $0.11/KWh, BTC=$100. Showing 20% jumps and estimated dates)

are you dense? we're talking about future earnings, not past earnings. if you're going to "speculate" on past performance, you might as well argue that you should buy 100 BTC right now because it will grow 100x.

And what's the logic behind that? In what situation would spending 250 BTC on a 71 GH ASIC be more profitable than holding? So far the only way is for difficulty to be unrealistically low. If you think otherwise, give me numbers (price + difficulty) that would show buying ASIC to be more profitable than holding.

>posts item at ridiculous price
>fails miserably to justify the price
>"omg u guise are just trolls im not going to argue with u"
YEAH, OK BUDDY.

This all also assumes you bought it today. If you bought it late last year, you've made a pretty nice profit already and it's still under warranty, :p.

0.32 USD/24h@100MHash/s
At pretty much 1btc=100$

So a 600MH 7950/70 = 0.0192btc per day at 15.6M difficulty.

So at 200M, that'd be 0.0015btc per day. = 15cence a day.

200W per card = 4.8Kwh which at 0.15cence/kwh = $0.72

tldr:
7970 revenue @ 200M = 0.0015btc = 15cence a day.
Power costs a day = 72cence a day
=fucked.

Even at today's difficulty it would take a fresh $350 7970 =182 days at fixed difficulty

Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial.

And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today.

No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment.

Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014.

Interested in a unit, but at 250 BTC, that's just madness considering Avalon chips will come onto the market pretty soon and the BKK boards are going to be everywhere.

Recently bought 80GHs worth of Avalon chips and boards at approximately 2/5's the cost of this unit

http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsx

Alright, there is version 1. I had added an easy way to change the initial BTC amount as well as the frequency of profit loss and setting the percentage.

I post it without warranty. Any psychological harm due to this reality check should be billed to your local psychiatrist and not to me. If you find any strange errors feel free to let me know. (Also feel free to upload it to Google Docs as I don't know the in's or outs of that particular service.)

I'm pretty surprised by the numbers myself. I thought even at, say 20% per couple weeks, it wouldn't hurt much. These charts show that even a small change can make a world of a difference.

You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math.

When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement)

I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices).

I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week.

People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%.

If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering.

Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits.

I agree. This is all a matter of opinion. When it all comes down to it, it's a simple solution of "if you don't want to buy it, don't buy it." I think at this point it's worth saying that different people are taking this different ways, and leave it at that.

With that said, good luck with the sale!

What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:

Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.

Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.

Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.

grue - you are thinking in fiat not BTC which isn't how it works. All I am stating is that if you had 250 BTC today and holding it for a number of years it makes much more sense to spend that on mining equipment.

Anyway this is a sales thread or was lol until it turned into some kind of name calling / hate thread. Anyway feel free to PM me or email me on any other questions or posts. I don't want to reply to each and every one since its hard to not get trolled and not a productive use of time. I think I did a good job above on stating my thoughts.

Buy ASIC from yantis @ 250 BTC:
207 BTC over the useful life of the ASIC


Buy BTC from mtgox at current prices:
250 BTC in your hands right now

you see the problem? Your 300 BTC calculation is bullshit as demonstrated by spreadsheets. You have to have an extremely rosy difficulty forecast to break even compared to buying BTC.

PuertoLibre - you should just be able to go to google drive and import the excel file and then share with everyone and your good to go.

Grue - On your comment "And your logic about "long Bitcoin" is fallacious. If you're paying $x now to get y BTC over the next 2 years, what's the point when you can spend $x now and get z BTC right now? (hint: y < z). I don't care if BTC goes to $1 or $100, you'll end up with more bitcoins just by buying."

Can you explain this better? Keep in mind this is bitcoin that is being traded not fiat. There is no USD conversion etc. So I don't get what you mean. If I had 250 BTC bitcoin now how is that better than lets say 300 BTC earned via mining say two years from now? Since its a long bet your better off mining the bitcoin. Now if your using USD you are probably still better off mining than buying bitcoin for tax purposes since its so speculative and you can get the hardware depreciation.

bait

no, that's retarded. I don't care if ASICMINER or BFL are selling at $100 per GH, if they're not going to make ROI, no sane person is going to purchase, period. And your logic about "long Bitcoin" is fallacious. If you're paying $x now to get y BTC over the next 2 years, what's the point when you can spend $x now and get z BTC right now? (hint: y < z). I don't care if BTC goes to $1 or $100, you'll end up with more bitcoins just by buying. No matter how you slice it, 250 BTC is an insane price.

holy crap are you retarded? it's just a few formulas + autofill.

edit: if took calculus in high school, you can integrate the function (1+z)^-x, where z = network growth in percent.

PuertoLibre - Would love a copy of the google doc or excel if you could PM me. I would love to play with it..especially going out a few years.

I love a good debate though sometimes wish it wasn't in my sales thread but I am not hiding anything so it is what it is.

As for the comment on ASICMiner. All I know is I paid 2.1 BTC each for 80 block erupters.. hardly a good value... I don't know much about the blades but for sure they are not plug and play and seem to be more work than they are worth. Also, when you pay its mining to your account immediately and shipped overnight.. not waiting weeks to get the unit like the ASICMiner stuff or a preorder.

I have no idea what the market is going to do but I do know that I am keeping at least a dozen Avalons and will run them into the ground. Keep in mind I am doing a 10 year bet on Bitcoin. So for me I feel very confident in making my 250 Bitcoins back on these units and more likely in the next 12 months and the rest is just profit. I think people are highly over estimating difficulty but in case I am wrong on that I leveraged that with some good pre orders (like the 7 Jupiters I bought which I honestly don't think will hit till January even if they say September since they haven't even taped out yet).

I don't think the hardware will fail on these since even if a board failed you can just throw it into another unit (each unit holds 4 and comes with 3 so you have room for one spare albeit you might need a bigger power supply. There has not been a single reported Avalon board failure to date that I am aware of so I expect these to last years.

I think the simple fact that I am only selling a few of these units speaks for itself. BTW I paid more than 250 BTC for these on average and that was just this last week =). So if I thought it was all bad I wouldn't have bought them in the first place. I almost regret even offering them for sale with the amount of ranting and hate lol its just not worth it. I might just take down the whole offer lol.

My advice is if you are long Bitcoin this is a better investment than holding Bitcoin and I did put my money where my mouth is and continue to do so.

Those people overpaid.

Also that was WEEKS ago when difficulty was about 10 million. Difficulty is going to be adjusted to be close to 20 million before these can even be shipped out to us.

A big part is also determined by when they paid. If they got them a month or two ago, they made a lot more while the diff was still lower than it is now.

Nothing is wrong with US..those people that paid that were morons as well.

Wait, people will pay 50BTC on a 10GH/s ASICMiner blade all day long, but they won't pay 5x that much for 7x the hashrate? What is wrong with you people!
For what it's worth, they're both overpriced.

Yantis demands 30% per month profit loss. 7.5 percent loss in profits per week. A very rosy picture by a large margin, but Alright:

The results:



So...you will still not make back your spent money.

Lets give Yantis and all other ASIC owners the benefit of the doubt:

Rather than losing 15% every 7 days, let make it only 1% every 7 days.



As you might imagine, this is an EXTREMELY rosy picture. It won't ever happen. Like someone posted, the next difficulty correction is shorter than 1 week and is actually 24% and not 15%.

So no matter how you shake it, ASIC resales are going to be fairly unprofitable. Even if you do Jedi Mind Tricks.

I doubt Yantis is a bad person.

What I think though, is that he knows he is giving people a bad sale. Though he is looking for a moron to part with his money/BTC.

This brings up the question: If each Avalon will now only produce in the neighborhood of 105 BTC. Then what is a fair price for each?

25% of expected income? 50%?

I have seen that and many like it before the problem is people don't take into account so many things. Below is not all my original thought as I have talking to a lot of people but in general something to think about:

- ASIC companies are not going to meet their target goal dates
- GPU/FPGAs will drop out of the market (right now its about 40 Th/s).
- FinCen rulings. If pools get regulated its a game changer.
- One the full return of a unit is over 3 or 4 months per unit the network hashrate will slow.
- These graphs are based on these huge percentage rates continuing on forever and they won't as most bitcoin miners have a low tolerance for risk.
- As soon as hash rate rises to 1-2Ph/s people will start to drop out of the race and the difficulty will quit rising in 30-40%/month jumps. At that point it should parallel what happened after the GPU spike when GPU mining became popular. It'll start to plane out.
- At a rate of difficulty increase of 50% per month starting this month (150Th/s network hash rate). You will still be looking at mining 159 coins within 1 year. That assumes after 12 months the network hash will be 12Ph/s. Once the existing miners choke on the difficulty it'll start to average out around 1-2Ph/s (5-8mos) and go down to 10-15% growth per month (probably less).
- I would estimate an monthly network hash rate increase for this year of 20-30% when all months are averaged. Given the current difficulty and planned future growth you should make 250BTC on this unit this year. Worst case you're looking at 3-4 years, best case 1 year (or less).

I have went out of my way actually sit down with a few of the upcoming ASIC companies and the math still works out. Its better to mine the bitcoin than to just hold it. Which is why I keep buying hardware. For a guy who is just trying to get rich and double his money in a few months then hardware isn't the way to go period and your foolish to buy anything. But if your holding bitcoin I think its a sound investment.

Ultimately he and anyone else can request whatever amount they choose. All it takes is one moron to think its worth it.   The moron loses  out but what does the seller care ? he just sold his almost worthless miner for 25 grand.

Well, that was enough to turn me away, lol. The next difficulty increase (tomorrow) is 24%+ right now. I didn't realize the decreases were going to cause such a massive drop in income so quick.

So +1 to you, and thanks!

You just said that ASICMiner blades were overpriced but you are selling them for the same price.

An ASICMiner blade hashes at about 12 GH/s, and can be overclocked to 13 GH/s. That makes your Avalon worth about 5 blades, maybe 5.5.

They are selling for less than 50 BTC, but we'll use 50 BTC since it's round number. 50 * 5 = 250! Same price you are selling for!

Some power might drop as the GPU miners stop mining, but FPGAs are very power efficient and there is no reason not to leave them on.

BFL is shipping now, a weeks worth of orders ever day. They have 60,000 orders to get through which they claim to ship in the next 90 days. Even if it is a bit longer than that (I think it will take them 4-5 months) that is 400TH MINIMUM just for the orders we know about (see http://bfl.ptz.ro/), and I think the real number is about 600TH since not everyone submitted their info for that table.

Then you have nearly 600 Avalon batch 2s left to ship and more batch 3s. And coming later in the summer at least 500 million Avalon discrete chips. Difficulty could be as high as 100 million by Sept or October, with the minimum I estimated of 50 million by Sept 1. It will be tough for any one of these machines to make over 150 BTC in it's life, and a more likely estimate is 120-140 BTC. That it is why I will offer 110 BTC. Good luck.

LOL, uh, that is what you actually get when you have the ASIC in your hands. This means that you'll never make back the price of this Avalon if you buy it today.

This is actually a rosey picture. This doesn't include your bills for electricity or any other expenses.

If you think this is bad, imagine the people who are just getting their BFL Singles in a month. (@ 50/60GH/s)

what? 105btc back on a 250btc investment over a whole year isn't good?

I bet OP will say 105 back is great cuz you still have a 250btc machine, so you're at 355btc worth of hardware/btc, haha meanwhile he's trying to lock in a solid 2.5x profit on his hardware alone not counting what he's already made.

You know OP is a master interneter, he couldn't even find the proper sub-forum for his COMPUTER HARDWARE FOR SALE--->https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=75.0

If you'd like me to change the rate of decrease, then let me know.

I set profitability to decrease by 15% every 7 days. (like a difficulty increase)

In reality, the difficulty is increasing at a much sharper rate than this.

I think you will change your mind...(Does a Jedi mind trick with facts)



Title: ASIC's are WAY overpriced!

Good luck then.  I am out.

I'm with you on this. Of course it's all speculation and different people have different views. I believe this would be a good thing to get in on. Even if it were earning .2 BTC a day, over time it would pay off I think, assuming it's not built to last only a year.

I am not interested in selling these for a penny less than 250 BTC.  If you look at what you can get now which is basically just blades and USB sticks.. and its not really now..since they have to ship from China and horribly overpriced. If I didn't have a power issue I won't sell them at all but I underestimated the power I needed for so many units. I would rather just hire an electrician and get the electrical done right and buy up more units which I will probably end up doing anyway.

Everyone has their own opinion of difficulty whats going to happen or not. Personally I think about 40 Th/s of networking power is going to drop from the network due to FPGAs and GPUs leaving it and that should balance out this next month of difficulty even if it rises. I have seen crazy projections etc etc.. but I keep buying hardware because I believe that best case I make my BTC back in a few months. Even if it went crazy high and took a couple years to make a profit with its still smarter than buying bitcoin if your doing a long bet that BTC will rise like I am.

So the price is 250 BTC firm...a couple lucky guys will get one overnighted to them no BS and the rest of everyone else can wait for pre orders that may or may not ever happen or maybe get some horrible ROI ASICMINER blades/usb block erupters.

I agree, I'd pay maybe 110 BTC for one. Any interest?

I will offer fair market value like others have been selling for.  100BTC including shipping to my location.  But you have to make up your mind soon otherwise my offer is off the table.  Considering tomorrow that 2.23BTC / day goes to 1.8BTC then another 10 days from now it will be 1.4BTC

250 BTC is way overpriced, IMO. My guess is these will only ever make about 160 BTC or so. Good luck with your sale.

 Sorry, but I thibk difficulty is going to double about every month now.

Care to explain your reasoning?

Disagree, its not a good price at all!!

Ouch. I wish I had enough for these. I think that's a great price. Even with the rising difficulty, if it were to double you'd still be looking at 1BTC+ a day. That will likely be another few months I think, and in that time you should have already reached ROI so the rest past that would be pure profit.

yes,EACH

250 Btc each?

No longer for sale.