Topic: Yet another worse scenario a head of BTC (Read 830 times)

I think it's safe to say that the price hovering between $4000-$6000 is actually a solid range considering how we haven't anything going on right now, but even this "low" range is very hard to maintain.

Realistically speaking I don't think we're done with $3xxx levels yet. If you look back at past increases, there has always been some sort of a pullback, and I think that we're due for one after being rejected around the $4300 mark.

The only 'good' thing about the recent increase is that people wake up happy, the bad thing however is that it forms a solid counter opportunity when it comes to shorting people's excitement. We'll see what happens.

I think we will move between the area of 4000$ to 6000$ for almost 6 months and will break out in the last quarter of this year. There is not much buying momentum which can take us straight up. It will be more of a slow movements for the next few months. You can call it a consolidation phase.

you are right, at this moment , almost everything points out to the end to this bear market, the bigger picture suggest so> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-bottomed-out-ta-analysis-5088650  but it's wiser to be prepared for when things go south.

It has fall into a support area but it is currently recovery.  I strongly believe that this time around bitcoin is about to come out of the oversold area and the volume indicators are showing sign of bullish momentum now.  I think we are better now than when bitcoin was completely down in December last year.

I do not think you really understand how these support lines come to existence, you talk about 2000+ being a support, what is a good reason for anyone to buy bitcoin at 2500$ for example?  support lines are price areas where there is a strong physiological history of people buying at the area.

if the current support area is to be broken, i personally will short bitcoin, never going to long it until i see 1900$ or 3000$ again, it's only logical that you keep your SL closer to where price is likely to oppose.

if bitcoin drops below 2800$, the probability of it going to 1900$ is much higher than going back up to 3100$, from a trading stand point, it only makes sense that you short btc at 2800 with SL at 3200$ and TP at 1900$ , as oppose of buying at nobody's land below a major resistance.

look at the chart, when btc fell below 6k, where did it stop ? where are the new support lines you talking about? it only stopped right at a previous support, and if it falls from here, chances are it's only going to stop at the next existing support, it's text book really just watch the chart, history repeats itself most of the time, while anything thing can happen and price can retrace at any point and time, i still suggest that you don't try to beat the odds because they will beat you harder.

People do not realize that support lines could change at any given moment. Right now, we see the 3000+ as a good support and the next big support at 1000 dollars, well guess what that is because people think price will stay above 3000 and do not tend to support anything less and that is why anything under 3000 looks like it could have a freefall affect.

However, even tough I think it will probably never happen but if price goes under 3000 one day and reaches to 2900 or even 2700 levels we will see the support lines change drastically, instead of 3000 levels of good support we will have 2000+ of good support. Support lines at 1900 are useless right now so there is no need for them toe exist but if the price goes down than the support would go down as well and create a good support line there.

I  kind of agree with the second comment dude. Ta's will be hard pressed to make decent predictions in a short time when fluctuations can be very sharp. And there's very little data to base your ta's from compared to being able to observe the long term movement of a certain coin.

I was nodding my head "yes" through that whole post.

It's not like TA = science. Markets can't be studied empirically because there are too many variables that can affect supply and demand. We obviously can't isolate all those variables.

What we can do is identify chart setups/structures that seems to reproduce results over and over. Then we can backtest strategies that exploit that. That creates expected value. It's not science, it's just leveraging statistical probability within a given margin of error.

That's why like you said, you can have a winrate less than 50% and still be a profitable trader. You just have to understand the probabilities and risk/reward setups, and most people just don't understand that stuff at all. They think it's all black-and-white. They make a few horrible trades that experienced traders would never enter in the first place, and then they curse TA over it.

If there is less retail presence in the market (and thus less spontaneous buying/selling), which is the case right now, the algos control the market and TA is your best friend. I was dismissing TA as well, but no longer do so because it actually turns out to work to a larger degree.

We frequently see these attempts, but they remain exactly that, attempts. Bots thus far have nicely bought up or sold down potential structure breaks, and we have seen it happen today as well. People with tight stops are getting rekt when this happens, but that's their own fault. You should know that in a market lacking liquidity these things will happen, especially at current stage with how extremely thin the books are.

I think it's rather a waste of time trying to explain to someone who doesn't know what TA is that it actually works.

the problem that i seem to find with most of those people is that- they think TA is purely numeric based, something like physics or math that can't go wrong, if 1+1 = 2 today, then it has to be same the next day,thinking of it this way indeed leads to not believe in it, specially after making or seeing a few bad calls that end up in a loss, when you expect something to work 100% of the time, the moment it does not work is the moment you stop believing in it.

however if you think of TA of more like a physiological based analysis, where you try to predict based on previous actions of market decision makers, of where the majority of the money is likely headed to at x point.

after all , trading as a concept is nothing but gambling with slightly above 50% probability of success. actually with proper capital and risk management, even at 50% success ratio you end up making money, but these people don't want to learn, they rather buy bitcoin at 15k and blame the whales!. it's easier that way indeed.

i feel the opposite. anything below the 1-hour charts is noise to me. long terms charts are actually analyzable. there is some inherent logic to this: higher timeframes dampen volatility. when mr. itchyfingers market buys 500 BTC it really messes with the short term charts. but on the weekly/monthly charts you hardly notice it. that's why you can recognize the real moves on the higher timeframe charts. they separate the signal from noise.

Using technical analysis or not, it would just vary on a certain investor or trader on what he will use as long we can able to benefit on such movements.For long term aspects

I don't see for TA to be necessary but its still applicable if youd wanted to use it. TA are good for short active trades where you do always aim for entry and exit points.

As we prepared for that changes and basically we do strategies to follow what is happening in the market.
Yes, we do agree TA is very important and many of us were still not relying on it. I know we have different understanding with the market flows and its  volatile being, and the way we adopt the system.

On the cryptocurrency market, technical analysis can be useful only in short periods of time (hours, days). Unfortunately, it does not work if we apply it in longer periods.

The "whale" factor is mainly just a function of low liquidity. There are many volatile, low liquidity markets out there. Bitcoin isn't the only market that trades that way.

When support lines get broken, panic occurs and downtrends are triggered. You make a good case for using TA (so one can identify those times when price will continue falling).

IMO you are relying too much on tech analysis. Bitcoin is not a Forex and the market is driven by many other factors than pure tech-fundamental analysis. Every whale could break lines in any point and you will be in panic what happens. I prefer to scalp on MA and leave the big game to the big boys.

Lots of people were buying at 12k , as well as 6k. i am only willing to think they are not "happy now" missing the chance of doubling their coins, same thing will happen if we drop to 1k, when people who sell now will load up 3 times btc than buying now.

I am not saying we are dropping for sure, but the chances  are there, even though there are more reasons for price not to drop from here. but you need to be prepared for that case scenario.


agreed 100% the lower 3k has officially become a bull zone for now, it only makes sense to long that area, however a break below the lowest low will trigger a good drop, regardless of the the million reasons why btc should go up from here, the ABC for any market suggest that it's easier to move in the same direction than reversing.

it seems like everyone is gearing up for a real massacre here.

honestly, it would surprise me if bulls didn't support $3k. maybe a little stop run below, but it's also possible that $3k is too obvious and eager bulls try to front run it. we've got historical pivots here, the weekly 200 MA, shorts are still fairly high, and we dropped with fast velocity. that's a recipe for a strong reaction.

i'm done shorting this market myself, at least until we've seen a solid relief rally.

Guys guys guys, we are getting very close to the bottom of this support channel, depending on the exchange you are watching it could be anything from 2600 to 2800 .  but basically we are looking at the high of 5th Jun 2017, which is also the low of 11th sep 2017. this is a critical moment for bitcoin. a break below with a full candle including the body will be the worst drop of this year.

possible scerinos : 1- a test of the 2800$ with a huge wick followed buy massive green candles to the up side with a fast rally to potentially 4k
2- a break through, panic, huge red candles.

depending on the shape of the candle ( price action ) you should know if you are selling or buying.

I am personally in short positions, i am starting to close my positions slowly all the way to 2800$, i might get into some long positions if i see a price reaction, in fact i got a few orders sitting between 2500-2700 hoping for them to be activated. but i will close with loss if the at least 4hr candle closes below the support.

stay safe.

The more we wait the lower bitcoin is going because of speculative news, there is nothing that really makes the price go down aside from market decisions and supply/demand rules.

Right now, there are more people who want to sell and get out of bitcoin than people who would like to buy, actually not even "people" but more money sold than more money bought. It has happened too many times in a row and there is absolutely nothing going on neither.

Today it went down because bitcoin ETF that was suppose to decided on 29th of December was postponed and market reacted to it, well there was nothing that changed for today ? Why did it drop when something 3 weeks from now became 2 months from now ? There is no explanation but people keep doing this and market gets swinging from bottom to bottom.

the moment of truth is here, btc fell into the support zone.

I don't really think Ethereum has something to do with this bearish market, in the first place this is bitcoin and not ethereum. Even if those devs release a lot of ICO token, bitcoin has nothing to do with it. It is the market and the support who decides the price plus, are you aware of the BCH fork news lately? I think that's the main reason why everyone was in a panic situation now.

not sure what you are trying to imply here, the point of pointing further support lines is simply trying to predict a potential reversal area should the next near support fails.

Agreed. The $3000 drop in price was from the BCH fork/hash war madness that dropped the whole market into chaos - investors love to panic.

I don't see another major drop coming. It might, but I don't see any reason for it too. Lots of people are buying (like me) now that the price is so low again. Panic sellers are selling to happy people like me that are loading up. It may well sink a good bit lower than the $3400 it hit recently, but I don't see any reason for say another 40% drop or something.

There are weak supports even further down the line because if the price is closer to one support line that gets heavier and heavier over time whereas the support for something like 1900 doesn't need to be strong since the price is so far away from it. If the price was about 2200 dollars right now you can be definitely sure that the support line for 1900 would have been much stronger than what it is right now.

The point I am trying to make is that the closest support line is always the heaviest one there is and the further down it goes becomes weaker. Same with resistance, if the price somehow magically went up to 18 thousand dollars right now, it is easier for it to go to 19 thousand dollars however it is incredibly hard to go back to 6.5 thousand which it was just a month ago.

Trace thinks that this is being done in part to "kill" some naughty miner-producing entity. Guess, which one?
https://twitter.com/TraceMayer


Makes some sense to me.

The rise to $20k was purely on the coat tails of ethereum scam ico use case. If ethereum never existed I bet the last halving would have peaked at around $2500. Since ethereum's use case of scam icos has been smashed with a governmental sledge hammer, the drop for bitcoin may be severe (back in the hundreds?)
What. Is. The. Use. Case. Of. Bitcoin.

what are you implying, that anytime a legacy platform launches the price needs to see a major reversal? the CBOE futures launch doesn't seem to fit the narrative.

bakkt may or may not be launching near the bottom. if it gets delayed again, it'll raise a lot of question marks as to whether it was empty hype like all the ETF applications.

what exactly those higher lows that have never been broken?  there were higher lows by the tons that have been broken , and yet more will likely fall too.

I understand your point, but i have to disagree ( use cases, transactional ecosystem) have minimum affects on prices.

proof is, most of us are now waiting for ETF , and Nasdaq btc futures to bring the attention of investors to then raise the price, how on earth will ETF improve BTC itself?

the point that you do not seem to understand is that  investors buy just about everything to sell it for a higher price and not because they like it or they think it has a use case. if you look around you will find many things that are worth much more than their real value. but it's just the way the world works, demand increases price and that's all about it.

again i do not understand how difficult is it for everyone to see that Fundamentals as of today are much better than they were last December while price is 80% lower. this fact goes exactly against your claim that ( fundamentals underlie the market, creating demand)

the existence of fundamentals doesn't imply markets are rational. the rise to $20k was not rational. unsurprisingly, we are returning to the mean now.

you can't ignore that fundamentals underlie the market, creating demand (via use cases, transactional ecosystem, investment). why else does bitcoin have a long term uptrend of higher lows that has never been broken? the technicals don't just invent themselves; they reflect supply and demand which is totally linked to fundamentals.

That is one excellent analysis OP, it may never happen but you do try to prepare yourself for most of the outcomes. Although i would not expect BTC lower than 1000 i would expect it (by 20% chances) at around the previous official ATH (~1300), so just in case i have some orders there waiting. I think you have missed one factor; the new futures market. As with CBOE the great bear started, it may be the opposite now. with BAKKT the great bull starts. If the big boys are officially in to make big money thay will try to destroy as many as possible before that (old hodlers). So yeah i tend to agree with your theory on this.

Also another factor not put into the analysis is the oncoming regulation. I suspect BTC will "sell its soul" to its enemy (the state) in order to gain legitimacy. If this is true then with legitimacy you have tax implications that will most propably induce stability on the price (no more big candles). unless you have a well working futures market for hedging. and this are the pieces that we are seeing played out now. (this is just a theory and not knowledge).

Crypto has proven to do the impossible, so we can't rule out any price levels from this point, but we have to be realistic enough to understand that once prices move up or down people turn either super bullish or super bearish.

Overall, rallies usually tank back to where they started if it isn't based on fundamental growth. Before the $10,000 mark was reached last year we had a failed rally to $5000 which bottomed around $3000 which is the price it started rallying from.

Doesn't it look like coincidence that last year during the all time high the CME platform went live, and that now we're nearing the bottom we might again see the launch of another legacy Bitcoin futures platform?

Possibly if that strong support in $2900 was eaten out.  Anyway, I believe market orders changes as funds comes and go in the market.  There is also a possible scenario that right after that strong support is broken, buy order would come in.  Market is not stagnant like taking picture and it freezes there.  Every minute, market changes so it is too early to tell that BTC will go down below $2k . 

yes fundamentals are almost not important at all, this is not my own conclusion. if fundamentals are important then why did bitcoin rised from 3k to 20k ? was there any mass adoption ? any etfs? any real contribution to the world? NONE ! people got into bitcoin based on the rising price and only to make profit. the fundamentals have been positive for the past a few months ,more awareness, more adoption , rumors about ETF and almost everyone and their grandmother's learned about bitcoin, yet the price kept falling. investors do not care about fundamentals, they want to buy something they can sell for profit in the next day / week / month or year.

you tell someone to buy btc at 3k only to sell it for 1k while the fundamentals are all looking great ! nobody will buy it. tell them that btc is going no were and it's a bubble with no real use for the world but they will be able to sell it for 10k , they sure as hell will buy it.

as for the volume i could care less, for all i know price moves and respect major support/resistance lines. if you disagree then go ahead and post your chart showing us how will price react to volume.



indeed TA is not a crystal ball that will tell you exactly everything about the future, but it's funny to think that 1k is not possible, if btc fell from 20k to 3.5 why would 1k or even 500$ be impossible? where are down over 80% from ATH, another 10% or 15% from ATH is nothing much. i am not saying we are diffently going there, but it is very possible.

People will be panic when the price break at the $3000 and there will be a mass selling among the exchanges and makes the price to go down for deeper. It is what happens if the price cannot stay up to $3481 which is the lowest price of bitcoin ever. And if this happens again, then some people cannot hold any longer and decide to cut loss the bitcoin. But when the price can get down in less than $3500, then there will be any new investor come and invest the money in bitcoin. The primary support is at $3000 and still active until now, but I don't know if there are any down of the price, so it makes the price get down for more. I hope that there is a reversal of the price so it will push the price to go up to $3900-$4000 but the trend still down.

I guess it clearly indicates there are very less chances for the bull run, a long way to go guys just hold your nerves and keep calm crypto has different thoughts for a few more months. Don't sell your coins now happy days are on the way have patience and wait for your day.

Those who already buy some BTC are definitely holding and waiting for the right time. Worse cases happens anytime especially we are in cryptocurrencies which we believe that its value can't be manipulated.

You state that fundamentals are not important, but I believe that they are the most important considerations. For example, your chart doesn't take account of the imminent inversion of the yields in the US bond markets, or the probable chucking of DoucheBank under the bus. If you are a short term day trader, then the charts can help you to predict the moves that will be made by the whales to manipulate the market, but without considering fundamentals, and the external financial and economic factors, it is hard to get a feel for whale sentiment.

Another important fact is that you don't include volume, and that is relevant to determine the importance of price movements in my opinion.

you are making the situation worse that it really is only inside your head by drawing lines on the chart. so far nobody could ever predict bitcoin by only using TA and lines on the chart!
this doesn't mean $1k is not possible, but it means that you have no logical reason to expect that price or anything lower than $3.5k to be possible at this point.

You are right, If this scenario happens then I am too ready to buy a lot of BTC. It clearly seems that there are no chances for a bull run this year. So we need to change our plans accordingly by buying more coins, yes we need to wait for a few more months now. We cannot change the nature of cryptocurrency lets believe the upcoming year might be great for us.

I think there will be very strong support around $3000 as this is the psychological barrier at which point bitcoin will either make or break. If it's not defended properly then it will fall

So you think bitcoin price is going ahead towards 1K USD.Great!I'm going to wait and buy some bitcoins then.
I have reasons to think that the next year is going to be awesome for bitcoin.Buying at 1K and selling after a few months at 5-6K USD would be awesome for me.I don't believe that bitcoin might reach another ATH in the next 2-3 years,but having a lower price now still guarantees big profits later.

the only way that bitcoin price can have another major drop lower that the previous low that was reached is that if we see another major manipulation similar to what we had when this last big drop occurred. i am referring to the BCash fork attack. and since we have no more of that coming so i do not expect any kind of drop
not to mention that drops never come out of nowhere! they need some sort of initiation that needs to be stronger since price is so much lower and it has become extremely hard to push it any lower than this.

the chart still looks drippy, with no major capitulation bottom in sight. i'm hoping bulls show up with strength on any dip below $3k, just like they did last year. a high volume rejection in the $3k area should exhaust sellers and give us another shot at a V bottom.


the price doesn't always need to drop to tested support levels. those levels just represent possible reversal points. the market could find new (previously untested) supports earlier.

Looking at BTC-USD on the weekly chart i came to see yet another potentially worse scenario ahead !






However there is some GOOD news here!

the 2900-3600 is rather a very strong support zone as seems to be on the weekly chart.

So there is a good chance that this may be the end of the bear trend,even though the 2900$ seems to be the most reliable bottom within this green support zone but anything from TOP to BOTTOM of this zone is actually a good support on the weekly trend. but the good news are unlikely to play out ! sadly !

The bad news is !, there is almost no sort of any support beneath this 2900$-3600$.

The nearest support area that we can count on would be 950$ to 1350$ .  WTF 

There is however a minor support at 1900$ but that support was only tested once as a part of a small correction during the last bull run in July 2017.

now some might argue and say I am crazy to even think that we can actually go to prices this low, but really this is the disadvantage of a bull run that did not stop to make mark any support on it's way. easy come easy go !

in this topic https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.48030883

i mentioned about the importance of breaking the 5800-6000 levels , and to most traders it was a clear sign of going short as there was no sign of support for at least 30% down the way. and BTC did actually drop 36% from there.

again breaking the 2900$ support could easily do another -35% or in fact well over -50% should the weak support at 1900$ fail to hold ( very likely ) and take us straight to 950$-1350$.


so long story short, the bulls need to defend this green support area as this will be their last resort before another collapse in price, which indeed won't be over night, and could take months to actually get there.

the bright side however from a TA point of view, that the easier it comes the easier it goes.,with these fast dips, we are creating less resistance points on the way back up ( in the future). the sharp fall from 5800 to 3600 created no serious resistance, so it won't be much of a surprise to see a single candle shoot from 4k to 5.5k which is unlikely of course giving the nature of the current bear trend.

now this is from a technical point of view.

Taking the fundamental part of it, it does not look less miserable.

if you have to name a working business that uses bitcoin and is generating any sort of considerable income, then i could be wrong. aside from Exchanges and Mining Hardware manufacturers the use case of Bitcoin is still very limited and way far from deserving a market of 800 billion $. taking the whole crypto market in the picture, what has any crypto currency done to the world yet ? 99% of it is either a scam coin or nothing but a copy-paste token with a better looking whitepaper.

to me , the fundamental aspect is less important, because what took btc to 20k was not the fundamentals but rather the technical, it was the greed, people look at the chart to see an insanely rising trend, kept jumping on to make money , rising the price and that's all about it.

now the way I look at the bigger picture of any new market is that, the rich / the whales or whatever you name them have to make the most of it. there is noway they will let all the geeks who out of passion bought thousands of BTCs for almost no price to become millionaires just like that. despite the vision of bitcoin, it will never set people free the way many people think. you need to suffer to be set free, it won't be as easy as you think it is. the whales need to take every single BTC they can from you before they can approve the market and allow it grow into a trillion $ market.

as long as we still call 3k to be bottom then it most likely won't be, since we are physiologically prepared for this point, so many of us are not panicking and still holding to our coins, they will still try to make it look worse, put you in a position where you really start to think BTC is going to 0, once that happen then moon comes.

now again this all could be wrong, maybe at this price the majority of the holders are not willing to sell anymore and the whales do not have a magic stick to force it , and if that's the case then we could moon up from here. but really what are the odds?

to me i take TA very seriously,its been working just fine for me, i do not sit there desperately waiting for moon when the price is collapsing , I do not cash out any profit from trading unless i need to , the plan is to get more BTCs  by selling every possible chance and buying at a lower price. so this is no FUD what so ever. if you are a trader, then you might need to start thinking of the possible scenarios ahead, be ready to act accordingly , try to get as much BTC as you can, so that in 5 years time you can quite your boring job and live free.

this bear scenario only ends with a daily candle closing above at least 7500$ , anything aside from that will be nothing but bull traps for the poor to fall in. remember there will always be good chances to go low. if you think the price is still going down and you are afraid to miss the bottom entry then you will be rekt. however if you are accumulating bitcoin only to sell it 5-10 years from now then you should not worry about 50% decline because it is only minor for long term.

This is not a financial advice what so ever, do whatever the fudge you want to do with your own money.
 

and , Good luck !