Topic: You talk bear, I call bull(sh*t)! (Read 2013 times)

Largely I agree with you, but I think its fair to speculate on downtrends since BTC are likely "overpriced" to account for that potential you speak of.

A stock with the real world value of 1$ may have potential and thus be priced at 10$ or 100$, but it would still be fair and make sense to dump that stock all the way down to 1$ again if you doubted that potential.

A lot of Bitcoins current value is speculation and hopes for its future and then like a "pitiful" 2000 companies using it a bit. A drop to 5$ might not be crazy - who knows the true value of anything?


Now, after keeping it real; I still intend to buy more at my next paycheck since I'm a believer.

Again, in a bad SHTF situation bitcoin isn't that useful.


What I meant is that the market cap, including speculation might not rise significantly. I think we have reached at least a temporary equilibrium of the general value put into the system. Since the lack of other instruments (which is my core critique btw) this amounts to the total amount of fiat money currently held on mtgox and other exchanges. The price can fluctuate within this margin but not exceed it.


This is not happening and there is no indication it might during the coming months. Some day it might.
The scams and the atmosphere surrounding them absolutely killed off this one at least for a year. Believe what you wish but the general public is going to avoid anything prone to that kind of drama, independently if it affects the core infrastructure or not.


That is not a concrete fundamental thing affecting price though. If the debit card fails prices will fall if it succeeds prices will soar it's as simple as that. The potential of that happening is already priced in, possibly more than it should be.

I hear you!   

Cheers,

Ente

Don't be a jerk.
He didn't say he doesn't care about the future at all.
It doesn't influence my life if there will be asteroid mining, quantum bitcoin mining or the sun turning to a supernova in a hundred years from now on. Which doesn't say anything about what I prefer. I try to not waste aluminum, which will have more impact for future generations, for example.

Calm down, don't assume too much. And still, even if he said what you try to hear, no reason be insulting.

Ente

I'm a bull, but don't forget that there is also the risk of a defect or vulnerability in the official Bitcoin client being discovered. It will probably be fixable with minimal loss but there could be a big loss of confidence.

You can say the same when LTC hits dollar parity 

No, it can't, because there never will be "asteroid mining".

I think that Bitcoin is the evolution of money. It's a digital hybrid of gold and cash. It's an independent and open technology that is powered by grass roots.

At the same time I understand that something like this might take time. I'm not concerned about anything negative right now, what most concerns me is how the governments, banks and authorities in general will respond to Bitcoin when they really understand it's a threat. Bitcoin might be too big at that point to be stopped but that remains to be seen.

Everything else is just noise, the hacks and scams I mean. That is part of the fairly high learning curve for this laissez-faire digital economy. I do think that it will get better through time. Short term Bitcoin might go anywhere, even down, but long term I remain very bullish.

I think that at this point saying Bitcoin "has nothing going for it" is ridiculous. Basically all types of usage for Bitcoin are growing rapidly by pretty much all indicators that I'm aware of. The value of bitcoins is going way up (long term), market liquidity has been going way up, transaction counts are way up, merchants accepting Bitcoin is way up, the number of significant Bitcoin companies and smaller Bitcoin startups is way up.

The black market for Bitcoin, Silk Road etc. is also growing rapidly, so even that is way up. Other niches for Bitcoin are doing well, the Ogrr merger - continuous record numbers for poker sites such as Seals with clubs. The growth is not exponential but it is there. I call absolute BS on "nothing going for it".

Finally, I'll say that Bitcoin could at some point enter an exponential growth phase. We're not there yet because we haven't reached critical mass but we're getting there, slowly but surely. Once that happens there could be an explosion of growth. Right now, however, we're in the "plateau of productivity", growing slowly but surely. Some developments such as the BitInstant Debit card could be precursors for the explosion.

Bitcoin doesn't need the usage explosion to reach higher valuations though. The recent hedge fund news is a good indicator of that. Bitcoin is both digital gold and cash which means that the value of bitcoins can grow through value store and through usage. Historically a very large portion of the exchange rate is value store/savings/speculation and I believe it will continue to be that way. Perhaps forever. However the ratio will change as usage increases. Less of it will be about value store if the "cash" part of Bitcoin really catches on.

But it can become worthless if asteroid mining ever catches on.

That's one advantage of gold: it cannot die.

But relevance depends on how soon. Something that dies 100 years later, is irrelevant to me.

Well, at least you'll be able to tell people that "you were there" when bitcoin really takes off.

Well almost, I think there is a loose bitcoin on my mtgox account. I got burned by bitcoinica and never really recuperated. I am not really a bear by my own terms, but am known for my bearish statements which I just consider sane evaluations of the situation.

Concretely, I think mid single digits are more likely than new all time highs during the coming months, but we will get there eventually, it will just take longer than expected.
Might call it mid term bear - long time bull. 

Are you really a bear -- that is you have 0 BTC holdings or even are short?


Yes, well not food it spoils and has a low value to density.  And gold and land (http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x394118844/Farmland-prices-still-rising) have seen tremendous appreciation.  Interesting that you would lump BTC in with this group but be a bear...


Sure, markets have efficient price discovery.  The market cap may be where it belongs today... but its growing like the internet in the 90s.



There is a gigantic untapped market for international "mini-payments".  Payments from 1 to 500 dollars (say).  Paypal, etc. add a significant fee, (don't forget the PP currency conversion fee).



I didn't mention the debit-card.  If that is delayed, I'm sure the good people at bitinstant or bitpay will think of something else...


I agree with you here; bitcoin has not had a judicial branch recognize its legality.  But AFAIK, neither has chocolate chip cookies... that is, if no applicable law exists, things are generally considered legal until shown otherwise.

I also lost parts of my BTC from scam, but I learned from it. BTC is a good platform for learning, and scams apparently also exist in the real world (fiat currencies, penny stocks, ...).


I know this is a problem, for the ones that will need BTC only as payment.

As I'm a strict anticyclic trader, I'm happy with buying at $0 and selling at $11. I will own more and more BTC, and I will not buy or sell them in big panic bulks, but defy to them. I think there are many persons like me, rich persons in particular (not gamers), so my hope is the price of BTC will stabilize over time

Disagree.

The amazing amount of scams has left me thinking Bitcoin will fail and fail miserably. There is simply not enough legitimate uses for Bitcoin, everything is either a scam or illicit black market activity. This is all well and good but it will be too easy for the government to argue against it when the time comes.

Bitcoin has zilch going for it at this time. It is also entirely illiquid. BTC15,000 and we're back to $11. There are over 10 million now and a fraction of that sends Bitcoin to 0.

If the debit card falls through and BFL ends up being a scam it will tank.

I don't think a Bitcoin should be anywhere near $12 right now.

My $.02.

As one of the most resilient bears here I'd like to help you out there:

The same argument can be made for gold, land and food, bitcoin on the other hand is dependent on the internet which depends on the economy.

Essentially the same thing, open to interpretation. There are strong points that the market cap is already where it belongs, essentially for somebody to accept bitcoin one must first be convinced it is proftable for them.

Transactions fees will be too high to do micropayments if the market cap rises. Bitcoin was always considered a experiment instead of the holy grail of money by satoshi.

Might already be priced in.

The debit-card might hit a road-block. Other than that I consider them sub-par. Bitpay uses some nasty XSS and the rest isn't really used.
Payment processing should be open sourced and free of charge, decentralized with the bitcoins actually directly sent to the merchant. Payment processors should provide third party signed transactions as well as exchanges.
It's all a big what-IF so far.

Yeah somebody mentioned it somewhere over there, just like it is recogniced by some EU bureaucrats. You are probably refering to the bitpay press release I know.
So far there are no official publications  which  say one thing or the other.

I fully agree!
On both the reasoning behind some people talking bear, as well as the general outlook.

However, it all depends on the timeframe. As someone stated in his sig: "Long term up, short term rollercoaster!"

Indeed: Enjoy! :-)

Ente

Don't under estimate the important of this.  Bitcoin scams and thefts (MtGox, Bitconica multiple times, Bitomat, Pirate, on and on) make the news.  Block reward halving doesn't.  A pseudo anonymous currency naturally attracts crime.  It's the perfect vehicle.  Instantly movable between borders, readily convertible into cash, and when it's stolen the police pay as much attention to the theft as someone making off with a collection of Pokemon cards.

When I mentioned the Pirate scam to a very computer literate friend his first reaction was 'yeah, I knew that Bitcoin thing was a scam, yet you were so excited by it last year'.  It took patient explaining that Bitcoin was just the vehicle for the scam.

There will be plenty of opportunity for the 'sheeple' to dump coins to you.  Enjoy.

Newbies, when you read these forums please understand that lots of these guys post to try to spark a dump to get cheap coins!

On the bull side we have:

1. global fiat currency uncertainty, loss of confidence and inflation
2. growing bitcoin utilization
3. a really small BTC market cap compared to its potential
4. a much more efficient and inexpensive means to transfer value then traditional systems
5. block reward halving
6. bitinstant and other growing financial services companies
7. recognition of bitcoin's legality in Finland (was it finland?)

On the bear side we have:

1. Failure of obvious scams (pirate) and clearly illegal secondary services (stock markets) whose only relationship to bitcoin is that they use it.  They could just as easily have used another currency.
2. The one-time-makes-a-trend observation that "bitcoin does better in the summer"

Sure we might see some downward wiggle, but the trend is up!

Anyway, sheeple thx for dumping your coins!  But next time think before you dump :-).  You are more valuable as a happy owner of Bitcoin than as a means of value transfer from your pocket to mine... :-)