The jump down from 20x to 3,5x (2013-17 cycle vs. 2017-21 cycle) was so important that I expect a much lower ATH than what many (including the OP) are expecting. I think the era of "getting rich quick" is gone in the case of Bitcoin (and also ETH), as crypto is a well-known asset now (so the "we are still early adopters" myth isn't really true anymore) and it takes more money to be able to rise the price further. I expect Bitcoin basically behaving like a stock now, although it not necessarily has to follow the stock market (I consider the current situation where both markets are highly correlated, rather special, as there's lot of insecurity in the market due to several crises).
For the next ATH, I have basically two scenarios in mind, which resemble a bit what happened in late 2013 where also a "psychologically important" price level ($1000) was expected to be broken:
1) Once the bull is roaring again, everybody will be focusing on the 100K. This will however trigger massive sales starting in the high 80s/low 90s, with a significant correction. If the upwards tendency afterwards is not strong enough, I expect a high of $87.000-$94.000 and then lower prices in the 50-80K area.
2) If $95.000 is broken, or a second fast upmove reaches $90K again, I think the 100K will be reached. In this case I would expect $120K or $130K, but not much more.
Obviously higher values in the next cycle are also possible, but judging from the slightly disappointing upmove in 2021 and the facts I outlined at the start of the post, I think the probability of >150K in the short to mid term is rather low. I would expect these values, and then maybe a start of the "gold flippening frenzy"*, only after 2025.
*I think the expectation of a "gold flippening" could generate a kind of FOMO more similar to earlier cycles as this would be an extremely important event for the "BTC as store of value" folks. So a jump from e.g. $100K to $500K in a single cycle seems possible. But I think it's too early for that, so the next cycle will be probably a bit disappointing again.
Huge factor is just how common gold really is.
We have had persistent rumors of huge gold reserves just around the corner.
A) the golden asteroid
B) the huge African base deposit.
It they truly exist and are quickly developed gold will lose a ton of dollar per oz valuation.
This could really push a flight to other truly rare metals or maybe just maybe fomo to btc.
Second factor is does eth do pos and crash like it should.
and lastly do we have 9-11 years of inflation?
all big factors.
my pick is btc struggles a lot for next 10 years and inflation hangs in there.
which will make USA series I bonds a very good hedge against BTC.
we will be lucky to pass 70k in next 2-3 years.
Maybe april 2025 we hit higher and do 100k.
but i do not see 70k for next 2-3 years.