Topic: Yuan Is Crashing After Huge China Trade Surprise (Read 244 times)
Whole of this China trade thing has given India a lot more advantage in GDP growth but I think currency crash is happening all around the world. Even the Indian Rupee is at 3 month low towards dollar thanks to the recent great trade deficit that increased only imports in the country. But most out of it what I think is that nowhere it is affected largely by cryptocurrencies or bitcoin. Because if that would have been the cause then dollar might not have surged.
More problematic than numbers coming out of China is absolutely anything published on zerohedge, which deals in conspiracy theories and other discreditable ideas. They've been calling for a devastating worldwide economic depression for the better part of 10 years. Their ideas are protectionist nonsense and anything they have to say on trade is tinted through a useless worldview. It's been noted the site is run by a known fraudster who was barred from the financial industry for insider trading.
Hi. If you disagree with an article on zerohedge (or wherever else) could you use facts or evidence to dispute which parts you believe to be false, rather than encourage wholesale condemnation which kills intelligent discussion and debate as it exists as a form of censorship which is opposed to dissemination of facts and education.
If you read the zerohedge article, its based on interpretation of chart data. Are you claiming that every chart posted in zerohedge's history is false? I would be interested to know your stance and reasoning here. Could you link me to a solid example of a piece published on zerohedge which contained fallacious information?
Clearly there is a reason for the DOW's recent 2,500 point plunge. And there must be a reason behind bitcoin's decline as well. If you have a better explanation for either I would like to hear it.
Pick any one, there's no shortage of bs posted in any Zerohedge article. Perhaps you ought to research the history of Zerohedge and the wild conspiracy theories it peddles. When that's your bread and butter, it's not on me to prove any article there is suspect; they're all suspect because of the types of information they deal in. Nobody who has a reputable opinion or knowledge would need to resort to writing for Zerohedge in the first place, so it has come to the point that you can discount anything written there because it was published there. If there's a legitimate point to be made, you'll see it on actual reputable financial blogs and websites, minus all the conspiracy theories and sham information. But nothing I can say is going to convince you of that. They peddle a worldview and you either have the critical thinking skills to see through the garbage they peddle, or you bath in it without knowing any better. If you're the latter, I can't show you the light. It's something you have to be able to see for yourself.
Those are exports not overall GDP growth.
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..
Question. What makes FT data is accurate and Zerohedge's data inaccurate? How would you recognize valid data from invalid data?
Here's another source which contradicts the FT's claims on china's imports.
There is no inaccurate or accurate data.
The article in zerohedge talks about imports and exports.
Then you said:
That data (scrubbed from search results? It should be listed but is not...) verifies china's imports shifting the trade deficit in favor of the united states. A lot of people aren't aware search engine results are heavily censored and manipulated. Wikipedia content many "fact check" websites and many official looking and sounding websites function solely as misinformation platforms, publishing propaganda. Most don't even notice. 
Common, don't start with the conspiracy theories. Just don't.
If you're going to believe zerohedge who for 10 years have facts and proofs that the next crisis will happen tomorrow but you won't believe data from other sources, then there is no point arguing.
Many university professors and "academics" demonize zerohedge simply due to its independent slant and due to it historically being one of the few financial websites to post accurate and objective news. Those days are gone for the most part unfortunately however the negative stigma remains.
Zerohedge was nothing more than a piece of....whatever shouting doom doom doom!!!
How many times have they predicted crashes?
The Deutsche Bank derivatives saga?
2013 At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative
2014 The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In
2016 Deutsche Bank Tells Investors Not To Worry About Its €46 Trillion In Derivatives
....
later on Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion
This is why I don't trust one thing coming from there.
It's a den for conspiracy theorists , for them banks are pure evil, the government is evil and most important everyone else is to blame for them not leaving in paradise, the illuminate, the Rothschildd , the reptilians are holding them captive in their parent's basements.
Imports went up by 20%? 
According to the "Financial Times", china's imports grew 4.5% year-on-year.
I think we agree: the FT's data there can't possibly be correct.
According to the "Financial Times", china's imports grew 4.5% year-on-year.Quote
Imports meanwhile grew far less than anticipated, with a year-on-year rise of just 4.5 per cent undershooting expectations of a 13 per cent climb and down substantially from the prior month’s pace of 17.7 per cent.
https://www.ft.com/content/f1a9b2cd-33c5-35c4-baab-5b03dbeaa5d5
https://www.ft.com/content/f1a9b2cd-33c5-35c4-baab-5b03dbeaa5d5
I think we agree: the FT's data there can't possibly be correct.
Now, this is entirely your fault for not paying attention.
From your source....zh:
Quote
Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.
The data from ft is for December:
Quote
China’s exports rose more than expected in December, but import growth slowed dramatically, helping to drive up the country’s trade surplus.Imports meanwhile grew far less than anticipated, with a year-on-year rise of just 4.5 per cent undershooting expectations of a 13 per cent climb and down substantially from the prior month’s pace of 17.7 per cent.
Those are exports not overall GDP growth.
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..
Question. What makes FT data is accurate and Zerohedge's data inaccurate? How would you recognize valid data from invalid data?
Here's another source which contradicts the FT's claims on china's imports.
Just as @jaysabi said, the main problem with that it comes from zerohedge. If the exports grow it's bad if imports grow it's bad , there isn't a single positive article on zerohedge, for 10 years they've said we're doom and there will be no tomorrow.
Find one positive article on zerohedge...that would be a challenge.
Find one positive article on zerohedge...that would be a challenge.
I have read many positive bitcoin and crypto pieces published on zerohedge. For a long time, sites like zerohedge and seeking alpha were the closest thing to independent journalism of economic and financial topics. Recently zerohedge sold out and publishes pro establishment content which is more political and revisionist in nature than it used to be.
Many university professors and "academics" demonize zerohedge simply due to its independent slant and due to it historically being one of the few financial websites to post accurate and objective news. Those days are gone for the most part unfortunately however the negative stigma remains.
Yeah, imports went up by 20%, the trade balance is still positive by a huge number and there is no chance of it going negative unless this runs consciously for a few years.
As for Bitcoin and DowJones, there is no correlation. Bitcoin was going down from the ATH in December while DJ was getting pumped like there was no tomorrow.
Also Bitcoin stopped sliding down 4 days ago while DJ is barely recovering right now.
As for Bitcoin and DowJones, there is no correlation. Bitcoin was going down from the ATH in December while DJ was getting pumped like there was no tomorrow.
Also Bitcoin stopped sliding down 4 days ago while DJ is barely recovering right now.
Imports went up by 20%?
According to the "Financial Times", china's imports grew 4.5% year-on-year.Quote
Imports meanwhile grew far less than anticipated, with a year-on-year rise of just 4.5 per cent undershooting expectations of a 13 per cent climb and down substantially from the prior month’s pace of 17.7 per cent.
https://www.ft.com/content/f1a9b2cd-33c5-35c4-baab-5b03dbeaa5d5
https://www.ft.com/content/f1a9b2cd-33c5-35c4-baab-5b03dbeaa5d5
I think we agree: the FT's data there can't possibly be correct.
Quote
Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows.
What economic slowdown , they've just increased exports by +11.1%.
As far as I know, china's growth was projected to increase by much more than +11.1%. The closest figure the article cites is this:
Quote
In USD terms, the China trade balance printed $20.34bn, well below the $54.65bn expectation and collapsing from last month.
Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.
Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.
Those are exports not overall GDP growth.
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..
The second sentence above also seems to indicate china's trade deficit with the united states is in jeopardy. "Friendly" imports to china growing @ 20.5% a faster rate than chinese export growth @ 7.5% seems to imply this.
Recently the DOW dropped around 2,000 points. This happened days after bitcoin's massive decline. Stock market dips mean absolutely nothing to me. But I did wonder what caused it given the united states economy is looking good at the moment. Info posted in OP is about the closest explanation I could come up with. And of course, its interesting to wonder if the DOW price correction and bitcoin decline are related.
There could be a lot of angles and perspectives to this which are relevent to many of the topics which crop up in this section.
China’s 2017 economic growth fastest in two years
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
Recently the DOW dropped around 2,000 points. This happened days after bitcoin's massive decline. Stock market dips mean absolutely nothing to me. But I did wonder what caused it given the united states economy is looking good at the moment. Info posted in OP is about the closest explanation I could come up with. And of course, its interesting to wonder if the DOW price correction and bitcoin decline are related.
There could be a lot of angles and perspectives to this which are relevent to many of the topics which crop up in this section.
Just as @jaysabi said, the main problem with that it comes from zerohedge. If the exports grow it's bad if imports grow it's bad , there isn't a single positive article on zerohedge, for 10 years they've said we're doom and there will be no tomorrow.
Find one positive article on zerohedge...that would be a challenge.
Yeah, imports went up by 20%, the trade balance is still positive by a huge number and there is no chance of it going negative unless this runs consciously for a few years.
As for Bitcoin and DowJones, there is no correlation. Bitcoin was going down from the ATH in December while DJ was getting pumped like there was no tomorrow.
Also Bitcoin stopped sliding down 4 days ago while DJ is barely recovering right now.
More problematic than numbers coming out of China is absolutely anything published on zerohedge, which deals in conspiracy theories and other discreditable ideas. They've been calling for a devastating worldwide economic depression for the better part of 10 years. Their ideas are protectionist nonsense and anything they have to say on trade is tinted through a useless worldview. It's been noted the site is run by a known fraudster who was barred from the financial industry for insider trading.
Hi. If you disagree with an article on zerohedge (or wherever else) could you use facts or evidence to dispute which parts you believe to be false, rather than encourage wholesale condemnation which kills intelligent discussion and debate as it exists as a form of censorship which is opposed to dissemination of facts and education.
If you read the zerohedge article, its based on interpretation of chart data. Are you claiming that every chart posted in zerohedge's history is false? I would be interested to know your stance and reasoning here. Could you link me to a solid example of a piece published on zerohedge which contained fallacious information?
Clearly there is a reason for the DOW's recent 2,500 point plunge. And there must be a reason behind bitcoin's decline as well. If you have a better explanation for either I would like to hear it.
Quote
Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows.
What economic slowdown , they've just increased exports by +11.1%.
China’s 2017 economic growth fastest in two years
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
More problematic than numbers coming out of China is absolutely anything published on zerohedge, which deals in conspiracy theories and other discreditable ideas. They've been calling for a devastating worldwide economic depression for the better part of 10 years. Their ideas are protectionist nonsense and anything they have to say on trade is tinted through a useless worldview. It's been noted the site is run by a known fraudster who was barred from the financial industry for insider trading.
Quote
Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows.
What economic slowdown , they've just increased exports by +11.1%.
As far as I know, china's growth was projected to increase by much more than +11.1%. The closest figure the article cites is this:
China’s 2017 economic growth fastest in two years
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
Recently the DOW dropped around 2,000 points. This happened days after bitcoin's massive decline. Stock market dips mean absolutely nothing to me. But I did wonder what caused it given the united states economy is looking good at the moment. Info posted in OP is about the closest explanation I could come up with. And of course, its interesting to wonder if the DOW price correction and bitcoin decline are related.
There could be a lot of angles and perspectives to this which are relevent to many of the topics which crop up in this section.
Quote
Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows.
What economic slowdown , they've just increased exports by +11.1%.
China’s 2017 economic growth fastest in two years
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4
Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.
And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..
Quote
China’s overseas shipments held up (exports +11.1% YoY in USD terms) despite the stronger yuan and rising trade tensions with the U.S., but it was the imports that stunned many, rising 36.9% YoY in USD terms, slamming the trade surplus well below expectations.
(Link to image in case it doesn't display: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-32-24.jpg )
In Yuan terms the spike in imports was just as impressive...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-30-34.jpg )
In USD terms, the China trade balance printed $20.34bn, well below the $54.65bn expectation and collapsing from last month.
Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.
While coal (colder than normal) and oil imports (record) surged in January more than expected, it is crucial to understand that the Lunar New Year, which began earlier in 2017, may have distorted the data notably.
Nevertheless, stocks extended their losses on the data...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-28-50.jpg )
But the big impact is extending the losses from the US session in the Yuan as it crashes 5 handles after the data...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-21-53.jpg )
Offshore Yuan is now down over 11 handles on the day and down 1.5% in the last two days.
It would appear all bets are on again for another devaluation.
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-35-52.jpg )
Today is actually the biggest drop in the Yuan since the Aug 2015 devaluation (and remember what ripples that sent through global markets)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/yuan-crashing-after-huge-china-trade-surprise
(Link to image in case it doesn't display: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-32-24.jpg )In Yuan terms the spike in imports was just as impressive...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-30-34.jpg )In USD terms, the China trade balance printed $20.34bn, well below the $54.65bn expectation and collapsing from last month.
Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.
While coal (colder than normal) and oil imports (record) surged in January more than expected, it is crucial to understand that the Lunar New Year, which began earlier in 2017, may have distorted the data notably.
Nevertheless, stocks extended their losses on the data...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-28-50.jpg )But the big impact is extending the losses from the US session in the Yuan as it crashes 5 handles after the data...
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-21-53.jpg )Offshore Yuan is now down over 11 handles on the day and down 1.5% in the last two days.
It would appear all bets are on again for another devaluation.
(Image link: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_20-35-52.jpg )Today is actually the biggest drop in the Yuan since the Aug 2015 devaluation (and remember what ripples that sent through global markets)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/yuan-crashing-after-huge-china-trade-surprise
....
The implications of this are interesting. This could be the cause behind the recent US stock market decline, and the crypto decline as well. Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows. These precedents could negatively affect markets of the global economy, reducing confidence in stocks to follow financial projections where healthy markets continue to propel growth.
It might provide another reasoning for china cracking down on crypto, to prevent migration of funds from the yuan which is devaluing to crypto currencies which may be devaluing at a slower rate, if at all.
It seems that this could signal the first counter movement to the trade deficit the united states has continued with china for a long time. There could be a significant paradigm shift ongoing here. There are a few different angles to this which might be considered.
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