Topic: Are investors investing in Bitcoin at ATH now are fools ? - page 10. (Read 2586 times)

If you look at past prices, there had been no time when bitcoin investment was bad.. If you invested anytime in past 10 years and held it till now, you would always been in profit. So, again, if you are investing for long term, it does not matter at what price level you are investing. You will be profitable if you hold for 10 years. I think that growth in bitcoin prices will be faster in next 10 years in comparison to first 10 years of bitcoin.

I am not sure if you are getting your premises right based upon which you make your investment decisions or judge others' investment decisions. If something peaks, couldn't it be a buying signal? You should rather ask yourself why BTC is peaking again and whether there is good reason to assume that the network will continue to grow. Whether there is still potential for BTC to maintain or increase its rate of adoption. Whether there are other factors that could contribute to BTC's price to further increase.

I think in general being cautious during hypes is good, but making it a rule of thumb to refrain from investing in something that has peaked doesn't make a lot of sense. It is no level of analysis or anything, it sounds more like an ill-considered principle.

There are still people buying Amazon shares these days and I think there are more people thinking that Amazon can't grow any further than there are people thinking that BTC can't grow any further because Amazon literally controls the global market, everyone is using it (except for the Asian area, which is Alibaba) and Amazon is doing everything one can imagine from technology to nutrition and yet they are growing. If you look closer, you can understand why Amazon keeps expanding.

Familiarize yourself with important markers of BTC and then contemplate whether these markers have reached certain limits that you can make up for your own hypothesis. I guess you will see that there is room to grow for BTC.

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I see both sides here.  Dollar-cost averaging has merits for the average investor looking to mitigate risk.  However, for those with conviction in an asset's long-term trajectory, temporary pullbacks may present opportunities. 

Ultimately no strategy is one-size-fits-all.  DCA offers stability while lump sum buys enable one to capitalize on dips and  with crypto's volatility, the latter requires strong belief and risk tolerance.  Still having funds ready when blood is in the streets takes courage and may be rewarded.


The people holding out for some massive drop in prices - they may just miss the ride completely.  Not saying it won't happen, but that's the chance they take dragging their heels.  In my experience the real fools in crypto are folks too frozen to commit one way or the other!

It's not stupid to get some BTC when you can, either the price is high or not, you are only stupid if you invest all you have into BTC at once, nothing beats buying at a certain price right now and doing the same thing a week or month later, investing in BTC should be a gradual process, not all in an instant.

It's why new investors must not sleep on DCA, there is no way you are going to miss out, because BTC price isn't always the same in every month, and if you keep using DCA you won't worry about what this present value is.

The fools are those who don't buy anything, they never take any actions because they want BTC to go lower before they start buying, such people are the biggest fools in this crypto space, and I do hope that they learn their lessons, it's always risky to be out of bitcoin especially when the price tumbled over.

Your assertion is not entirely accurate as we have no evidence to prove that every 4 years bitcoin will continue to go higher. Like this year history didn't repeat itself as btc hit ATH before halving, something no one thought about until it happened. Therefore, the investment decision now is not right or wrong but depends entirely on the level of risk we can accept. Think of the scenario if we buy now and the price does not increase after halving but will increase 5 to 7 years later. That is a risk we should consider because any scenario can happen, the market is unpredictable.

Investing in BTC at ATH certainly cannot be called stupid as long as intend to invest for the long term and are prepared to take risks because those who buy BTC when the price of Bitcoin is very high will certainly not make a loss as long as they keep it for the long term and only sell when there is a profit.

Of course we have seen fantastic bitcoin price movements and last night when I saw the market, the BTC price rose very high at $69k and honestly this reminded me of the 2021 bull run.

op regarding BTC price corrections of course there are always and last night after the BTC price rose high immediately many people panicked selling and in the end the BTC price fell but now the BTC price has risen again.

So in my opinion, the most important thing in buying BTC is that our have to have a goal, be ready to take risks and only money that you are ready to lose is worth putting in Bitcoin.

Maybe because that is the current price which he think the expensive one to accumulate and he just forget to know the whole picture about currently going on the market that there's a possibilities to grow more. That's why we can safely say that this is not the last price of bitcoin to reach and there are provably more since bitcoin is speculated to hit at six digits in figures. But if they don't trust that it will happen and consider a risky situation to trust then maybe they might call people which still accumulating as a fools or whatever negative they call since they don't know everything about it and just there because they are been hype on short term situation happening on bitcoin.

But they need to know that buying at whatever price which people is comfortable is not a bad decision since at any price people can accumulate its just we have different target and for sure those people who enter at current condition aims for future since they believe that there would be a lot of chance for bitcoin to grow more.

I don't think so unless they sell in the case of a price correction then that means that they're really stupid and a fool for buying at that price and then doing a panic sell, I wouldn't say that someone is a fool for buying bitcoin no matter how much is the price because at the end of the day, if you look at it in the long-term they're going to still profit, that is if they hodl, when you invest in bitcoin, your next actions are going to be the ome that would decide if all the stuff you've done in bitcoin investing is foolish or wise, that's my take on this as it's vastly different with altcoins since altcoins are most likely to not get another ATH and wouldn't be having any kind of progress and hodling for the long-term is fruitless most of the time.

Why do you think the current price is the peak? Agree that Bitcoin price has had very impressive growth in recent times, and I'm sure few people can imagine that Bitcoin price can surpass the old peak in 2021 so soon (usually it will happen after halving event). And many people out there are also saying that Bitcoin must have a big correction when the price approaches the old peak, everyone can see that clearly, and the market makers and MMs out there also know that you will think so. Usually they are people who do not want us (retail investors) to go with them, so we will not know for sure whether Bitcoin will continue to go up or adjust down.
It may be too risky for someone to buy Bitcoin now in terms of technical analysis, but you should remember that we are at the base of the rising wave, not at the peak of the cycle, where Bitcoin may go higher from here. If the price of Bitcoin continue to grow, will they still be considered stupid? Don't try to predict the market. Buying now and holding on with a long-term vision is not a stupid decision, unless you sell when there is a strong market correction.

How do you know that this price is the top? This price might go up to $80 000 or $90 000 or even $100 000.

You might get in now at a bargain price of $70 000 and be able to sell it for $100 000 within a month from now.

We do not know what the impact of the hype surrounding the "Halving" will be, so this price might still be low. Everyone are too focussed on the price now... rather focus on hoarding and not selling any coins now.

Probably way too many newbies get preoccupied with their entry price, which causes them to wait, and you cannot prepare for UP by waiting, so even if the price might correct, it also might not, so there is no ability at all to count on prices going down or even staying flat... even if they might end up doing so, they also might not.

So the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy BTC.

Another thing is that if someone is brand new to investing, it could take them 10 years or longer to just build up a decent position that is actually meaningful.

Don't get me wrong, any investment is meaningful, but investments likely have little to no power in their first few years while they are building, and the ONLY folks who can establish meaningful investments into bitcoin in the beginning are those who are transferring decent amounts of value into it right from the start, but they no longer are going to be fitting the profile of any kind of typical normie newbie investor.

So, normie newbies likely could be nearly completely blind to price for at least 4 years and just invest at any price, and then perhaps reassess at that time, but if they are merely investing 10% or so of their salary into bitcoin, they are still not going to have very much invested, even after 4 years.. think about 10% per year would ONLY result in 40% of their salary, and sure the underlying could end up appreciating a lot during that time, but that still may not result in life-changing amounts of value.

I frequently mention a suggestion of front loading and even lump sum investing, and surely not everyone has those kinds of options available, but they likely would be good with bitcoin, and no one should be lump summing or front loading with 100% of their available cash.  If they are able to front-load/lump sum, they still should be setting aside funds for buying on the dip and DCAing.. and presumably DCAing could come from any disposable income that they might have for 6 months or longer or however might be their intial planning stage for their entrance into bitcoin.

But yeah probably a vast majority of normie newbies don't hardly have shit available to lump sum or to front load, so they will just be faced with DCAing.. and maybe trying to organize their finances so that they can attempt to be as aggressive as they can with their DCA amounts.  It still takes a while, even if someone is ready, willing and able to be aggressive, and tops like this should not discourage them from getting started...


You sound distracted if you are using dumb-ass ideas of $2.3 trillion... because no one should give any fucks about shitcoins.

The last time around bitcoin reached around a $1.2 trillion market cap..,. so let's try to focus on bitcoin when we are considering relevant numbers.  Yeah there are shitcoins involved sucking off bitcoin's tit and hanging around as affinity scams and sure there could be some value in some of that crap, but it muddies our thinking and our numbers when we fail/refuse to focus on ourselves on the important asset - namely king daddy bitcoin.


That is way too optimistic to be considering $1 per sat or 1sat per $1, and bitcoin is not even needed to come close to those numbers in order to be able to prosper stupendously by getting involved in it.. and yeah, people can ONLY be as aggressive as they are able to be without overdoing it, and maybe trying to be too strategic about trying to figure out the price is going to lead to either waiting around or getting distracted into trading and/or shitcoins.

In the last 6 months or so, I had revived my fuck you status chart in more conservative ways, and I probably ended up overdoing it, so I will probably have to revive it in order to be a little more bullish, but still even with the projections of my fuck you status chart beyond 2074, we are likely not reaching $1 per sat until around the turn of the century (at least in terms of the 200-WMA, which I believe is the better way to valuate bitcoin in terms of bottoms rather than in terms of tops).   I had been considering if I should post an update to that chart prior to the end of May 2024, since it appears that we are on track for at least a 25% rise in the 200-WMA for the 6 month period (which is likely more than $36k) rather than the 16% that I had projected.

But even if we look at the 200-WMA and we project out 4-10 years, then 4 years puts the 200-WMA at around $114k and 10 years puts it at $389.5k.  That is from my updated chart rather the the above-linked current one that is posted.

So part of the point is that any newbies should be able to invest into bitcoin regularly and consistently and still likely be doing fine, even though there are likely advantages to front-laoding the investment, but not many newbie normies are able to do that, so they have to just do what they can without overdoing it and losing their shirts because they devolved into gambling/trading rather than investing.


You are correct.. We are likely in the early stages of exponential, and even though BTC's market growth (and price) already looks exponential when we look at the historical charts, there is no reason to conclude that such exponential growth is not going to continue, especially since the evidence (logic and facts) still seems to strongly support that bitcoin is the soundest and most pristine asset known to man... but still not too many people realize such.. .even though more and more people, institutions and governments are coming to realize such.


Well, that's too bad.

You likely are not realizing the power of this bad boy, and you have to have persistence and even through all of my 10 years investing in bitcoin, whenever I sell BTC, I am always presuming that I might not be able to buy it back.. so in that regard, from my point of view, sales are always relatively conservative, and without any expectation of being able to buy back.

One of the problems of newbies and even experienced bitcoiners (traders and gamblers) is that there is too much presumption of abilities to buy back at cheaper prices and also they are trying to use sales of BTC as a way to accumulate more BTC, and that's not how it is done.  The ONLY time any true bitcoiner should be selling his/her bitcoin is when s/he knows that s/he has enough or that s/he has more than enough.  Otherwise, no selling of BTC should take place, until reaching that status of sufficient accumulation or better yet over accumulation... easier said than done, but it takes discipline and a long time to build up a bitcoin portfolio and none of us should be taking for granted how many sats that we have accumulated or that we can buy them back at the same price or even cheaper than the current price.


Hopefully you will learn a lesson to just keep buying and stop fucking around with trading and trying to be smarter than the market.

Another thing is that our move from $25k (August/September/October) to current prices of $65k-ish has been pretty damned brutal for either the bitcoin non-believers and/or those who sold too many coin too soon.  There have only been a couple of corrections greater than 12%, and even the corrections of 8% to 12% were not very many.

And maybe we can say a similar thing from the low of $15,479 in November 2022.  There have not been a lot of large correction since November 2022, either... so lots of good buying opportunities that were not really realized until later.. and once we start hitting all time highs again like yesterday and probably like the weeks and months to come, even sometimes we might start to consider bitcoin's whole history as having had been great buying opportunities, and many times we get too fucking caught up on short-term price moves or anticipations of what might happen, without realizing that bitcoin's whole history has been buying opportunities, and it is only going to continue to get more and more difficult to get cheap coins, even though bitcoin is also volatile and going to continue to be volatile..


We already did see an ATH.. yesterday, and yeah it is looking more and more likely that we are going to see $100k before the halvening and maybe even land somewhere in the range of $120k and $180k prior to the end of 2024.


I can't disagree with you on these points.

Or simply put, they don't want to missed the boat before it sails, so they wanted to join in even at the highest price that we are seeing right now. Nevertheless, whos' to blame them, this has been the cycle and it going to repeat. But the good thing is that we are not even in the top price yet. Yeah for sure we might see new all time high before the halving. But the real bull run is after that when we see prices going on a parabolic rise. And if we can compare, those who bought at near all time high on the previous cycle could bear a sigh of relieve now, specially those who FOMO at around $60k in 2021 and still holding but this time because they wanted to make a profit at least. Or they could have sold already but then bought when the price is <$40k or even lower. So still a win-win situation and you can't call them fools.

Yup, I do agree that it doesn't matter which accumulation approach you are considering suitable the timeline matters, but for a person who is entering the market is starting to explore and finds it already at the peak time when he came to knew about it, rather than considering that time is gone I should look for something else, he needs to realize that on one peak to other, there are many zones/opportunities to accumulate and make a good average accumulation price, suppose that he takes the entry now and around 63k to 64k and after halving the per Bitcoin mining cost is gonna be around 46k to 47k and if market takes a healthy correction he follows the Buy the Dips or even DCA he stand a chance to buy at around 50k or 54k range or even lower just a rough idea. His current buying will even be worth it for his future accumulation.

On the same node JJG, we cant compare the current accumulation with the previous cycles as you know every time a surprising change occurs as it was $2.3T for the last ATH, and now already before halving at this point of the first Bull wave, we are already hitting new ATH. In the optimistic range of a 4-10 years timeline from 2024 to 2030 or 2034 even if we can expect some changes in narratives related to Bitcoin, we can just speculate as nothing is guaranteed with the current speed even those who used to say 1sats =1$ is not so for this timeline of 4-10 years.

Becasue now the market will grow exponentially by both capital and adoption, still, retail investment from all over the world is not getting the spotlight on Bitcoin.

TBH, at this point in the current bull run I think, I did many stupid things with my accumulation the first one was taking an early exit without realizing the potential risk of no re-entry chance, I did follow some strict plans but you know in greed and fear sometimes happens I did a booking of 50% at early 35k where I was supposed to book only 25% because it was my first target. What's gone is gone, Now even though I dont consider many portfolios and accumulation enough when I look at resources as a student I did own I think its not bad as well, even though I was able to do better.

I see that you have been registered on the forum for more than 3 years Faisal2202, which may well mean that you have enough BTC.

But if you don't have enough coins, then what?  You have to buy at some point.  When are you going to buy?  Did you buy today?  If not, then when are you going to buy.

On the other hand, if you have enough coin, then congratulations. Do you have any plans in regards to managing your coins going forward  and/or various selling points that might relate to either price and/or time?

We should not be presuming anyone else to be a fool in regards to their situation merely based on when they bought (including if they might have had been buying BTC in the last week) and/or if they are just getting started in BTC. We need more information before we would reasonably be able to know if they might have been approaching their bitcoin accumulation in a foolish way..


Well if you have an investment time horizon that is 4-10 years or longer, it would be difficult to assess that you are starting too late or that you are foolish for getting started. 

In the last more than 10 years that I have been involved in bitcoin (and paying some attention), I know a lot of folks over the years who waited and did not do anything in regards to buying bitcoin and we have had a lot of all time highs over the last 10 years... and sometimes it takes a while to reach another ATH after an ATH has been reached, but other times when we have not touched the all time high for a couple of years or more, then it is likely that we will continue to have more ATHs for months to come.. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but surely anyone buying bitcoin needs to be considering his investment timeline as an important factor, and then whether he is going to lump sum buy, DCA and/or buy on dips, and it can take several years to establish a position, no matter what the BTC accumulation approach.

I think nobody should be called a fool because this is an open market which is likely to defect of inflate so it is all risk that we are taking even the life it self is risk we just have to be careful in order not to take uncalculated risk everyone want profit so as it was hiking we many investors came in for profit but it tuns out to be opposite but bitcoin is still the king 👑 no matter what because it will and must hit $70k 🎯 before the end of this month from my FLT forecast you maybe not believe my forecast untill some of you will regret why you didn't invest or wikk regret why you made your withdrawal......

Bitcoin has come to impressively appreciate within some days like 10% of it price on the last 10 days but If you have a spear funds you can buy and keep in your Blockchain to avoid regret whennit wikk reach $100k be a wise investor to know the right time to make your investments.....

That's just my humble opinion with forecast....

Thanks 🙏👍

Sure , that procastinating in bitcoin investment is not always encouraging. When one procastinate , waiting for the dip without having any bitcoin in their portfolio. Whenever such increase in market takes place, it normally activate FOMO. Most time seeing the way Market as increase and how alot of people are talking about the nice  profit they are in recently. Those that don't have any would want to invest at any course to be among the testifies. Which most time would lead time buying at the top . Though buying the dip is nice and helpful too, but still try and use some DCA strategies to coverup some space when waiting for the dip. And such methods would help in building some good portfolio for yourself.

They are not complete fools, but they are experiencing FOMO, and believe that they should not miss out on the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. Sometimes, it takes experience to learn what to do during the bull run. In case there is a significant correction due to a sudden spike in the price of Bitcoin, they can continue to hold their investment because the chances of the current price increasing further are high.

No one can decide at this point bro, as you know if someone is buying for short-term gains, may be he's falling into the FOMO, because it's so high already, and now we are in the early distribution zone, and accumulating at this point will be highly risky. We can guide cant take actions on the behalf of new ones.

If one is making accumulation for the long term, this can be a good point because who knows, when the market is gonna give some other opportunities against, and making a DCA strategy even on the ATH for the coming couple of years is not a bad take, and anyone can safely accumulate because his goal is not the temporary gains, he wants to save for years, for such mindsets, I use a phrase which common all around, it's never late in Bitcoin especially when a just a few halvings happened..

At the time of writing this post, you will see the price of BTC is already below $62k so you must have known till now that the chances of BTC price to take some correction is possible and those who must have invested at the time of ATH are fools but IMHO they are not fully. Because some must have some POV, like they might want to hold their funds until the next ATH. And those who thought the next ATH was not coming are the ones who sold their funds, and some sold their funds in order to take entry again at some better point which IMHO is not. Well, I was saying. if one has invested at ATH.

They might be waiting for the next ATH which is going to come after the Halving event. so considering this those who invested before the ATH are not fully fools but partial ones maybe. Because I will say, if they have the enough funds then why they don't take entry before, and why they are taking entry now. They should time the market with some knowledge otherwise they will make loss.