BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger jump than most people expect - page 3.

Abiky

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Quote from: STT on January 13, 2024, 09:12:51 AM

Classic reaction, the one big thing I would say is the greatest gains for Bitcoin have been longer term. Its ironic perhaps but the spikes, the fastest moves often reverse and dont account for most of your gains if you are a holder. The amazing and surprising thing to many is the longer term gains that hold over years, thats really what makes its such a well performing asset.
This reversal right now is par for the course, quite normal and a function of the volatility to BTC we are all aware of. It has to even itself, its healthy to do so and markets require everyone at every order book price with volume to get filled really. We're in a kind of pivotal place for direction, target downside imo would be 36k and I would remain bullish in that scenario.

A market correction was long anticipated after the "pump". You didn't expect BTC to keep rising at a non-stop rate, did you? With due time, BTC will be able to get past its ATH of over $69k per coin. If many investors are considering Bitcoin to be "Gold's sucessor", then its current market cap is nothing compared to Gold's. Putting it in-par with the "yellow metal", Bitcoin would have a price of around $700k. That's close to the predicted price of $1m per coin. Just wait until 1-2 more halvings for this to become a reality.

With spot ETFs setting the stage for full legitimization of Bitcoin, we can say the industry won't be going anywhere soon. We'd be considered early adopters of the future of money. Who knows if BTC goes as far as replacing Fiat (or even Gold) in the long run? Cheesy

The Sceptical Chymist

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So there actually was approval of multiple BTC ETFs! I could have sworn I saw the opposite announced on Yahoo finance, but I'll be damned.

As far as the expected price increase tied to the approval goes, was the reasoning that the ETFs would buy up a bunch of bitcoin and thereby lower supply? I'll admit I've never traded ETFs, but the existing ones have to have real bitcoin backing them, correct?

Quote from: 1miau on January 08, 2024, 07:23:25 PM

Even if it's delayed (and a delay is unlikely), an ETF will be approved sooner or later. Possibly BlackRock and Co. have already purchased some nice BTC before the recent price increase. Wink

My god, they own a lot of everything. I don't know if any of you have looked at the top holders of any given stock, but BlackRock is always one of them. I don't doubt they've got a substantial number of coins. Makes me wonder if they're also holding shitcoins as well.

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 08, 2024, 10:34:41 PM

It is easy to say it's priced in. But who really knows if it is.

It's easy to say because if markets are acting efficiently, any available information ought to be priced in ASAP. Of course, markets aren't always instantly efficient, but it's my understanding that eventually they get there and the asset in question arrives at its true value. With anything in crypto, though, who's to say what the true value is? These coins aren't companies whose balance sheets can be analyzed. It's really just supply and demand as far as I can tell, and if anyone has any other theories I'm all ears.

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 13, 2024, 10:02:54 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 13, 2024, 08:35:34 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 13, 2024, 08:27:55 AM

It seems many have actually sold the news. I'm sure many insiders who knew in advance the decision of the SEC have already bought before it was released. It must be one of the reasons why the price had strongly pumped several days before the decision. And when the decision came out, the investors started dumping what they've bought.

Even those who didn't have reliable sources of the decision of the SEC but had clues that the decision is most likely favorable must have bought in advance and waited for the official statement from the SEC for them to start selling.

Just for some context here; analysts (from Bloomberg I believe) already predicted that the ETFs would be approved with 90-95% certainty, there was even betting odds based on the decision as far as I understand. So I don't think this has anything to do with "insiders" who "knew" that the SEC were going to approve the ETFs, but simply what the market was generally expecting to happen that then occurred.

I also don't think this was about the days leading up to the approvals. Price had already pumped from $30K to $48K based on speculating that ETFs would be approved. I think what's more likely is that speculators bought Bitcoin up to $47K prior to the announcement, expecting higher prices. As soon as the launch occurred and price dropped, many started selling to avoid losses. Likely a lot of leverage involved etc...

Overall, the subject title of this thread would have better read "BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger dump than most people expect". Personally I only remain disappointed to see how many veteran Bitcoiners fell for this "god candle" and "moonshot" pump scenario. Sure I thought a 20% pump remained possible, but overall I always suspected price would initially dump rather than pump.

Yes, the clues were already there even weeks before the official approval was released. The repeated requests for amendments and subsequent filings of these amended forms in short intervals were a clue that it would most likely be an approval. Also the repeated meetings with representatives from the applicant companies with short intervals as well could also be a significant clue. All this can't just happen if in the end the SEC would just unanimously reject the applications. And there's also the court's decision favoring Grayscale. All this must have contributed to the price increase.

Yes, this as well. Analysts weren't just pulling random probabilities out of a hat, it was based on everything that led up to the announcement date, as well as historically previous ETF applications etc.

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 13, 2024, 10:02:54 AM

But I think those who sold when the official decision came out didn't just sell because others are heavily selling. Those who sold heavily, triggering others to sell as well, are those who were already planning to do it because they have already bought much earlier and were already in profit. Selling the news was a nice exit strategy with a perfect timing.

Also very true I believe. Personally I had planned to sell the announcement or launch, as long as price was above $48K which was my target throughout 2023. My target hadn't been reached after the announcement, so had to wait until the launch, and it seems like I wasn't the only one either. Speculators had been planning to sell the launch for many months imo for a variety of different reasons. Most notably, because every other Bitcoin-product related launch (ie CME, CBOE, Bakkt and ProShares) has followed with a considerable dump in price, especially when they arrive at a relative peak in the market.

It's easy to think "this time will be different", but usually it's best to wait until a scenario actually plays out differently, before assuming the likelihood of breaking a trend... similar to halving & 4 year cycles etc.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 13, 2024, 08:35:34 AM

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 13, 2024, 08:27:55 AM

It seems many have actually sold the news. I'm sure many insiders who knew in advance the decision of the SEC have already bought before it was released. It must be one of the reasons why the price had strongly pumped several days before the decision. And when the decision came out, the investors started dumping what they've bought.

Even those who didn't have reliable sources of the decision of the SEC but had clues that the decision is most likely favorable must have bought in advance and waited for the official statement from the SEC for them to start selling.

Just for some context here; analysts (from Bloomberg I believe) already predicted that the ETFs would be approved with 90-95% certainty, there was even betting odds based on the decision as far as I understand. So I don't think this has anything to do with "insiders" who "knew" that the SEC were going to approve the ETFs, but simply what the market was generally expecting to happen that then occurred.

I also don't think this was about the days leading up to the approvals. Price had already pumped from $30K to $48K based on speculating that ETFs would be approved. I think what's more likely is that speculators bought Bitcoin up to $47K prior to the announcement, expecting higher prices. As soon as the launch occurred and price dropped, many started selling to avoid losses. Likely a lot of leverage involved etc...

Overall, the subject title of this thread would have better read "BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger dump than most people expect". Personally I only remain disappointed to see how many veteran Bitcoiners fell for this "god candle" and "moonshot" pump scenario. Sure I thought a 20% pump remained possible, but overall I always suspected price would initially dump rather than pump.

Yes, the clues were already there even weeks before the official approval was released. The repeated requests for amendments and subsequent filings of these amended forms in short intervals were a clue that it would most likely be an approval. Also the repeated meetings with representatives from the applicant companies with short intervals as well could also be a significant clue. All this can't just happen if in the end the SEC would just unanimously reject the applications. And there's also the court's decision favoring Grayscale. All this must have contributed to the price increase.

But I think those who sold when the official decision came out didn't just sell because others are heavily selling. Those who sold heavily, triggering others to sell as well, are those who were already planning to do it because they have already bought much earlier and were already in profit. Selling the news was a nice exit strategy with a perfect timing.

If the title of this discussion were about a bigger dump following an approval, it would have been more interesting, and accurate.

STT

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Classic reaction, the one big thing I would say is the greatest gains for Bitcoin have been longer term. Its ironic perhaps but the spikes, the fastest moves often reverse and dont account for most of your gains if you are a holder. The amazing and surprising thing to many is the longer term gains that hold over years, thats really what makes its such a well performing asset.
This reversal right now is par for the course, quite normal and a function of the volatility to BTC we are all aware of. It has to even itself, its healthy to do so and markets require everyone at every order book price with volume to get filled really. We're in a kind of pivotal place for direction, target downside imo would be 36k and I would remain bullish in that scenario.

Doan9269

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Quote from: 1miau on January 02, 2024, 06:20:06 PM

Of course, a rejection could result in a very big dump due to insurmountable disappointment as well.
As always: no investement advice because trading is very risky.

With the current market bear we are having, the price is going dip and more than expected, I have a feeling already, which is giving me notion that haven't the bull market happened right before the approval of the bitcoin ETF we are all talking about, or this is just a way to get more adequate preparations before the start of the bullrun, should we actually expect more bull market to come before the halving or we might remains bearish till the halving is done.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: Fundamentals Of on January 13, 2024, 08:27:55 AM

It seems many have actually sold the news. I'm sure many insiders who knew in advance the decision of the SEC have already bought before it was released. It must be one of the reasons why the price had strongly pumped several days before the decision. And when the decision came out, the investors started dumping what they've bought.

Even those who didn't have reliable sources of the decision of the SEC but had clues that the decision is most likely favorable must have bought in advance and waited for the official statement from the SEC for them to start selling.

Just for some context here; analysts (from Bloomberg I believe) already predicted that the ETFs would be approved with 90-95% certainty, there was even betting odds based on the decision as far as I understand. So I don't think this has anything to do with "insiders" who "knew" that the SEC were going to approve the ETFs, but simply what the market was generally expecting to happen that then occurred.

I also don't think this was about the days leading up to the approvals. Price had already pumped from $30K to $48K based on speculating that ETFs would be approved. I think what's more likely is that speculators bought Bitcoin up to $47K prior to the announcement, expecting higher prices. As soon as the launch occurred and price dropped, many started selling to avoid losses. Likely a lot of leverage involved etc...

Overall, the subject title of this thread would have better read "BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger dump than most people expect". Personally I only remain disappointed to see how many veteran Bitcoiners fell for this "god candle" and "moonshot" pump scenario. Sure I thought a 20% pump remained possible, but overall I always suspected price would initially dump rather than pump.

Fundamentals Of

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It seems many have actually sold the news. I'm sure many insiders who knew in advance the decision of the SEC have already bought before it was released. It must be one of the reasons why the price had strongly pumped several days before the decision. And when the decision came out, the investors started dumping what they've bought.

Even those who didn't have reliable sources of the decision of the SEC but had clues that the decision is most likely favorable must have bought in advance and waited for the official statement from the SEC for them to start selling.

Lucius

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Quote from: Abiky on January 11, 2024, 04:24:13 PM

~snip~
Now that the SEC has given the green light for spot ETFs, I wonder what Bitcoin haters will say? I'm referring to Jamie Dimon and Senator Elizabeth Warren. With legitmate use cases for Bitcoin, they would have nothing to say or point at. Cheesy

They will say what they said before, because their opinion has not and will not change because the SEC, under the pressure of Grayscale and other companies, was simply pushed into a corner and had no choice but to approve the spot ETF. I have already quoted several times what Gensler wrote regarding their decision, and here we must clearly distinguish that the law is one thing, and personal opinion is something completely different.

As for the approval itself, it seems that the expectations were much higher than what actually happened, and it is quite possible that investors will not show much more interest in the spot ETF than was the case with futures BTC ETFs.

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Quote from: snipie on January 11, 2024, 03:21:27 PM

There is some good news this year with the recent ETF approval and with the upcoming Bitcoin fork that will most likely drive the price higher than what we would expect.

Yep. We have good news about Bitcoin ETF. According to Gensler, Bitcoin ETF is finally approved today. This is surely great news for all Bitcoiners, we all expect for the bright future of Bitcoin and crypto industry as a whole. Also, the upcoming Bitcoin fork seems to be another matter to trigger the bullish on Bitcoin price. Everything looks happening as expected, no doubt that we will have amazing years in 2024-2025.

* https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023

Quote from: snipie on January 11, 2024, 03:21:27 PM

I would say the ATH might be reached this year, by novembre in my opinion and it will reach $100k by the next year or two thought!

It is too early to talk about the ATH. But with many good news, $100k is not impossible to reach sooner. However, I'm sure it won't be achieved before the Bitcoin halving schedule. I assume the Bitcoin ATH probably achieves in Q4 of 2024 at least. It seems to not happening very quickly because it needs time to return to $69k again.

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Quote from: Lucius on January 10, 2024, 07:48:10 AM

Regardless of whether the spot ETF will be approved today, it should be kept in mind that as far as I know, even if the ETF is approved, the SEC still has some mechanism by which it can delay the actual start of trading even for several months. If that were to happen, the uncertain period would continue, and it is possible that some companies could file a lawsuit against the SEC if it continues to prevent them from getting the whole thing going.

Some of the predictions I have heard are that a negative decision could cause a correction of 20% and even more up to $30k. Soon we will find out how many investors actually bet on today and how much money will come or go depending on the decision. Of course, assuming that Gary and the team manage to do what is needed, given that they have had some technical problems since yesterday Roll Eyes

The price of bitcoin reacts a lot to it, but also it reacts quickly and for short span as well. I have always said that it is not going to be as big as what people think, on contrary to what OP is saying, I think it will make it go up a bit, but not like we haven't seen that type of up before. For it to be "bigger" than what expect, it should do something we haven't seen before.

The funny thing is, halving is coming, so if it ends up getting accepted in a few months, people will think that the growth we will have in the next year will be due to ETF, when in fact it's mostly the ETF one and not this, that should be the most important part. Ignore it all, and we could definitely end up with something that would be more decent.

Abiky

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Quote from: cakravothy on January 10, 2024, 09:53:41 PM

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.
bitcoin price is normal. the increase or decrease is also small according to the price increase on normal days. like there is no big news at all to shake the market

It may have already been priced in. BTC "pumped" all the way to $46k before the approval of the spot ETFs, so that's it. We'd need to wait after the halving to see what happens. I'm pretty sure BTC will go to $100k in no time. Exciting times ahead for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. One would hope BTC doesn't turn centralized in the long run due to massive institutional adoption.

Now that the SEC has given the green light for spot ETFs, I wonder what Bitcoin haters will say? I'm referring to Jamie Dimon and Senator Elizabeth Warren. With legitmate use cases for Bitcoin, they would have nothing to say or point at. Cheesy

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There is some good news this year with the recent ETF approval and with the upcoming Bitcoin fork that will most likely drive the price higher than what we would expect.
I would say the ATH might be reached this year, by novembre in my opinion and it will reach $100k by the next year or two thought!

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 11:56:32 AM

I was considering that price could hit $50K to $55K level, even after the launch, but seeing how price reacted today already I've ruled it out now and took profits at $48k. I always considered this new "Bitcoin product" launch as bearish, despite the long-term bullish applications, such as every other launch to date; CBOE, CME, ProShares, etc. You could also argue that it arrived at a bad time, just as price was at a key resistance level around $48K, which is the 0.618 fib retracement level from ATH to recent low, but it seems more like price had already moved as far as reasonably possible and was sitting just under distribution zone.

Am more or less bearish now until either $30K or May, whichever comes first. 2023 was a good year. I'm sure 2024 will end well, but first price needs to cool off considerably.

CME and CBOE launched though was at the peak of the bull run and it could have contributed to almost $20k December when it should have retraced already as the bull run has ended. Just like in 2021, the price didn't push as the highs have been hit in November.

And with today's news and when we thought that $50k is there for us to reach, the market didn't react and instead it made some early corrections as there are profit taking already. And so it could be that the effect of the approval is already price in at $48k and then we might see a heavy correction pre-halving.

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on January 11, 2024, 11:56:32 AM

I was considering that price could hit $50K to $55K level, even after the launch, but seeing how price reacted today already I've ruled it out now and took profits at $48k. I always considered this new "Bitcoin product" launch as bearish, despite the long-term bullish applications, such as every other launch to date; CBOE, CME, ProShares, etc. You could also argue that it arrived at a bad time, just as price was at a key resistance level around $48K, which is the 0.618 fib retracement level from ATH to recent low, but it seems more like price had already moved as far as reasonably possible and was sitting just under distribution zone.

Am more or less bearish now until either $30K or May, whichever comes first. 2023 was a good year. I'm sure 2024 will end well, but first price needs to cool off considerably.

It do even made a drop on slight on which this was unexpected on where it didnt really make out some considerable some gains on long positions but rather on negatives. Good thing that it didnt really make out some god red candle instead. Well, thats how market goes and it do behaves on which it could really that totally mess up overall of your expectations into something on which on the time were everybody is already that anticipating for some jump in price but it didnt really make out such effect or movement after its been traded on which it is really that totally a disappointment but well there's nothing we can do about it though.

Quote from: ivankoh on January 11, 2024, 11:20:28 AM

Yeah, I believe that. The adoption of bitcoin etf will be a milestone for bitcoin, it creates a new era of true acceptance of bitcoin. It will erase the doubts that bitcoin has gone through. The only conviction that I see that bitcoin etf will bring is of great significance and importance.

Quote from: cakravothy on January 10, 2024, 09:53:41 PM

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.

I won't get into the developments in value, but barring the SEC's damn X hack, there will be people who are upset.

Yes, that one was truly that unexpected considering that hack did really make out some timing before ETF approval on which it cant really be avoided that for people to have
those kind of doubts and having those kind of hesitation or even putting up 100% trust on whats going on here. Simply this one really shows up on how they do really manipulate prices
on which it is really that somewhat obvious but well just like been said that there's nothing we can do but to move on.

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I was considering that price could hit $50K to $55K level, even after the launch, but seeing how price reacted today already I've ruled it out now and took profits at $48k. I always considered this new "Bitcoin product" launch as bearish, despite the long-term bullish applications, such as every other launch to date; CBOE, CME, ProShares, etc. You could also argue that it arrived at a bad time, just as price was at a key resistance level around $48K, which is the 0.618 fib retracement level from ATH to recent low, but it seems more like price had already moved as far as reasonably possible and was sitting just under distribution zone.

Am more or less bearish now until either $30K or May, whichever comes first. 2023 was a good year. I'm sure 2024 will end well, but first price needs to cool off considerably.

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Yeah, I believe that. The adoption of bitcoin etf will be a milestone for bitcoin, it creates a new era of true acceptance of bitcoin. It will erase the doubts that bitcoin has gone through. The only conviction that I see that bitcoin etf will bring is of great significance and importance.

Quote from: cakravothy on January 10, 2024, 09:53:41 PM

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.

I won't get into the developments in value, but barring the SEC's damn X hack, there will be people who are upset.

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Quote from: cakravothy on January 10, 2024, 09:53:41 PM

There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.
bitcoin price is normal. the increase or decrease is also small according to the price increase on normal days. like there is no big news at all to shake the market

Because it has been rumored for months now and that's when we go up from 20k to 48k just recently. As I've said before and what others are telling too, this is more like a sell the news thing, the psychological level people is anticipating now is if it touch $50k or slightly higher than that and people will move back to alts. By the way, people now speculates on ETH or even an XRP spot ETF, probably these two will run hard next.

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There was no price shock or massive price pump after the bitcoin ETF was approved.
bitcoin price is normal. the increase or decrease is also small according to the price increase on normal days. like there is no big news at all to shake the market

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It's approved now, yaay.

Now, let's wait how the positive outcomes, combined of positive publicity for Bitcoin, more money coming in and BlackRock + Co. doing Bitcoin ads will affect Bitcoin.
In combination with an upcoming halving it's really a bullish situation.

But we have to admit as well, that it looks like the premature announcement yesterday crashed the party big time. Cry

Quote from: buwaytress on January 10, 2024, 04:06:53 PM

That SEC hijack was nice, not spectacular, disappointingly. The day of days, tomorrow eh OP?

I always feel like 01:xx:xx AM is still previous day for me. Cheesy

Quote from: Agbamoni on January 10, 2024, 05:49:15 PM

Also, Bitcoin went down to $45k within yesterday and today. What are your thought on this? Do you think it is because of the Bitcoin ETF approval announcement? Am curious to know.

The market's big disappointment how leniently the SEC handles its Twitter account. Cheesy

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