Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era - page 3. (Read 2414 times)

Some stats are coming about regarding this situation I mentioned here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/25/more-than-half-of-uk-retailers-affected-by-houthi-disruption-survey-shows
"The price of shipping a container from Asia to Europe has gone up by as much as 300% for some businesses, while logistical delays have added up to three to four weeks to delivery times, according to the survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC)."

Although this is mainly about retailers and exporters but this also affects energy shipments the same way.
Also considering the fact that this war entered the third phase (first phase was verbal warning and blockade, second phase was attacks using weapons to damage vessels, third phase is using weapons to sink them) things could get worse for supporters of genocide.

 

Frankandbeans, listen to me. Nothing in what you have posted changes the FACT that China's Gold reserves has been increasing because of the FACT that they're HOARDING the commodity.

PLUS, you may say that it's off-topic for the thread, BUT a New World Order under the leadership of China would never be possible if they didn't have a very large Gold reserve because the path that they're taking might be that might involve a war with the United States. It's a fall-back plan.

whilst this is a energy topic YOU seem to want to just keep it derailed into a gold topic and a copied insult flurry of nonsense..
so lets handle you one more time..

you might want to look at the form of payment the chinese government planned and are giving out for the funding of the real estate completions, to re-energise the real estate market and not make it decline, you know, in the topic where you pointed out in-complete developed properties from private developers where you tried to use it as evidence of chinese gov's economy being bad
or is research too good for you, you prefer staying ignorant huffing gas fearing someone wanting to enlighten you

funny part is
private developers rushed too soon to develop properties before next decades baby boom demand. so PRIVATE developers failed..
during that time china was ignoring the issue(not their problem it was hong kongs problem at most) and mainland china happily just went on investing in gold

you tried to twist it as a sign of mainland chinese gov failure. and then doubled down saying chinese government going into crisis  having to money print their way out of the real estate issues..

reality is no, gov made their profit on gold and now ready to sell remove their gold exposure. before the post-ATH correction back down to value, so willing to give anyone that buys a unfinished property at market rate(so owners can fund the new developers that will finish them, without crashing the market rate) and china will give the owner a kg of gold as a back hander thanks, to avoid a money print and avoid a real estate market crash by not having to sell plots below market rate

try to do research and stay away from the gas fumes. you will only get burned when you decide the gas fumes are the only thing you want to touch your mind when someone tries to then enlighten your mind

anyway..
if you want to buy gold at ATH. and hoard it until the correction and sell at a loss due to lower fuel cost mining making it cheaper to have a lower average gold price again AKA buy high sell low aka sell at loss.. well you carry on with your own bad economic plan, just dont cry later about it and dont play victim

the energy crisis of crash of 2020 and inflation of 2021 is old news now.. we are getting back to norms..

..i do laugh how you live upside down to reality.. but cry how everyone else is wrong.. but ill leave you to your mistakes as you are the one that will victimise yourself with your mistakes

ill check back on you in a couple years and ask you how your $2k/oz gold purchases are doing.. and then ill laugh once more
(if you cant even get the economic hints from the oil/fuel costs relaxing(this topic) aiding gold mining thus impacting gold price..  and china now wanting to reduce its gold exposure after the 2 year buy up that got it to do its ATH (of the other economics topic).. to aid you in informing you its a bad time to buy gold at ATH before the correction.. thats all on you now)

 

Plus just because there are entities in China, or in whatever country, that are making it easier for ordinary people to gain more access to Gold, phyisical or paper, it doesn't necessarily mean they're selling their Gold hoard. It's laughable to have those foolish assumptions, or foolish posts, merely to gaslight people into questioning the right information and make the gaslighter look smart.

Be careful in the real world, frankandbeans. Gaslighting might be becoming second nature to you.

when your cult of idiots treating core devs as immortal gods cried to your gods to put neg trust.. that then becomes a meaningless reference to then ask why the negative trust.. because you know your cult leader requested it
your just circling the same victim card you created for yourself.
the whole debates i had in that era were about how segwit opens up an exploit that can allow junk.. and funnily enough ordinals proved my point
my evidence is based on code and block data and backed up by researchable data and examples of exploits actually being used. your rebuttals are based on emotion and tears


crying about crying gets you no where and proves nothing. apart from you are wanting to play victim
by you not doing research, thus getting confused then crying that it must be me confusing you becasue i dont say the same songs as your cult. then crying about it.. says more about you than anyone
if you want to learn. do your research. if you dont want to learn. stay ignorant jsut stop crying about the position you put yourself into as a self admitted 'pleb'(the insult YOU gave yourself) that feels like a victim.. you made yourself a victim, and you are unwilling to accept what you done to yourself. or more so not done to improve your circumstance

you keep bringing  up "negative trust, why" and "franknbean"
you cant even come up with anything new, you just cycle the same tripe your mentor spewed at you
saying franky is wrong because he made my sugar daddy cry, is not proof of any debunking of what i say

you cant even articulate a way of saying it differently, independently of your cult leaders script

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anyway china is offering out gold.. just not back to america.. yes it took in gold and is now offering it out. that how trade works.. the only difference is they are just not offering it back to the west

asia and the middle east are trading gold and shuffling it around
they are even offering it to the real estate buyers as a way to keep the 'paper' price of real estate property at market rate while the buyer gets an instant "cash-back" in the form of upto 1kg bars of gold(yep its the sneaky way to protect real estate market while back-hander deals to offer discount after contract signed at market rate.. kinda smart actually, very economics savvy)

as for energy
now diesel prices are coming back to this past decades norms of the $3 range as oppose to the $6 high
gold miners can mine again cheaper than last couple years. so expect golds ATH range now to correct again DOWN when gold mining season begins in spring

other goods and products will see CPI relax too due to lower fuel costs compare to previous few years

as for electrification of energy. well power plants still need to convert to renewables over next 20 years so expect longer term prices to not return to old prices.

No ser, Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow gave YOU negative trust-ratings because YOU have been spreading lies, disinformation, FUD, and have been gaslighting people.



If you know the truth and you are right, then why the negative trust-ratings given to you by two of the most trustworthy people in the forum?



Copy and paste? Frankandbeans, your big blocker Anti-Core-Developers posts are copy-pasted from Mike Hearn's and Roger Ver's propaganda.


Ser, do your own research. They're hoarding, not selling.

That's exactly like with Bitcoin - many were mocking and ridiculing Bitcoin investors for not selling during the top. But who cares what the price is as long as you don't sell you don't lose. The same here: if they don't want to keep their reserves in yuan why would they care about this price decrease and why would they care about the currency they no longer keep their reserves in?

pooya using your own chart.. (where you prefer $40 as norm..) yet it only achieved 40 range in 5-6 months of the last 5 years and (for emphasis) only due to the covid effect of affecting shipments which caused the futures market to sell off at a loss.. where futures contracts needed to be sold at losses to find a place that will accept the oil

pooya using your own chart.. look at the average when it wasnt the 6 month crash.. when it wasnt premium 6 months
its 60-80
over 20 years it was 50-70

current price is 70-80 in february meaning its in the norm range
we are no longer in the 1980's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 40 years ago(30-50 range for NORM)
we are no longer in the 2000's where oil was far less.. the new norm is always higher then 20 years ago(50-70 range for NORM)

40's is not an expected norm, we ate long passed the 1980's,
sorry time and inflation have moved on from 1980's norms
its like you are suggesting bitcoin should be $6 because $6 was 2012's norm/average...
.. sorry we have moved on from that market cycle. dont expect $6 again. we are a few market cycles away from those kind of price norms.. sorry
..
as for energy shortages..
macro:
well even in the 1980's they knew oil is not renewable. they even calculated potential reserves and put a supply depletion deadline of 2050 when all reserves are gone if staying at the demand growth rate predictions of 1980's forward, if nothing was done about it. this was the true trigger of then needing to shift to renewables by 2050.(climate was just the excuse to get funding via sympathy/ health fear(energy companies dont want to lose their profits. so prefer others pay the costs of changing the product/business model to keep their business in operation for the next generation) and why would people want to fund the early stoppage of using oil.. make it a health and safety concern)

micro:
dont treat the temporary events of supply issues (low demand or high supply or the opposite) or old prices as reasons for lower expectations of now.. what to expect now: nows price is  the norm for the next decade.. you know.. inflation compared to 20-40 years ago's price
dont expect things to go back to prices of the 1980's norms (30-50)

You need to expand your view and also check out the charts.


The peak of the energy crisis was 5-6 months as seen above, part of it was the price surpassing $100 and going as high as $120. The crisis wasn't just about higher price, it was also shortage in the market (there was a lot more demand than there was supply).

The crisis continues at a less severe state at lower prices such as the current $80.

I disagree and still say price has to come down a lot more than even $70 to "relax" the market and become norm. Because what you are forgetting is that one of the reasons why energy price came down in first place was decreasing demand, the demand that went down due to deindustrialization and recession.
To be able to revive those dead sectors and help them come back to the tightly competing market, the price has to go down a lot lower (although a lot more is needed on top of lower energy price).

I'll give you a little bit of my opinion.
Regarding Russia - Russia has not given up on the dollar, moreover, it is critically dependent on it. There was a "show for show" when they "dedollarized" their reserves - buying many billions of dollars for yuan. After 3 months the yuan fell even more, and Russia lost several tens of billions of dollars on this "mega deal".

Regarding gold. It is a specific commodity, especially in a situation when the real reserves in the gold-currency reserves of countries are NOT KNOWN.
Plus - try to model the situation when, for example, China, due to economic problems, decides to sell gold. It will not be 1 kg, and not even 1 ton. imagine what will happen on the world gold market ? Especially since there is a VERY large amount of gold being mined ! It is a rather specific accumulation.

Banks have been net buyers for a long time now, a couple decades the central banks have been buying and some have no selling at all.   Russia for example sells its dollars as a depreciating asset that makes some sense where as it believes the gold reserves its holding will only go up with all other factors serving that value.  China has gone from zero gold to holding an amount they dont want to release exactly, they control the market in effect as the largest buyer luckily they have managed to make themselves the largest producer also as well encouraging the population to hold gold.  India has already valued gold no change there, the government is negative on gold as it distracts from their inflationary fiat policy to tax their population however since India has large population growth and a young demographic even with no bullish trend in effect the country is accumulating gold within its borders.
  Obviously in the west the common worker is taxed heavily and will readily sell gold placing little value on it, I dont dispute that and I think it was Warren Buffet who said something like the cheapest gold to mine is on the highstreet.  Ie. the premium gained via pawn shops allows an easy profit on the arbitrage but even that billionaire doesnt recognize value in gold as an asset to hold so I'd attribute most value accumulating abroad in parts of Asia.
   China and India dont have oil so they will need the gold and the market should stay liquid in future for a hundred years I guess but I think both those markets are healthy for a very long time.  If we compare oil to coal, then the peak there was the steam age about 1900 or so and yet over a hundred years later coal is important still; thats how far oil has to go.

heck you dont even know your own numbers
just a few posts ago you said about the real high of barrel $100-$120.. now you say high of $80 (chose a number and stick with it)
..
you also say for things to relax barrel needs to come down to $40. when that was the temporary crisis LOW of 2016 not the norm average
the norm average is more like $60($50-$70) where oil did actually see $70 this month so is actually getting back to its norm

40 is not norm.. so not a relax point.. 60-70 would be relax point

Everything is beautiful, but the figures about the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia and China, while officially classified by them, do not look very convincing. Most of the other financial and economic indicators in these countries are also classified and cannot be used for indirect assessment. The only thing left is to listen to what the party says, and believe the party !
This is putting it mildly.
At the same time, there is information that, for example, Russia, in connection with sanctions, sells off gold to pay for sub-sanctioned goods and dual-use goods prohibited to be sent to Russia. So their indicator of gold reserves in gold and statements "we have more gold than anyone else and we buy it all the time" are not very convincing ...

I didn't say it is norm, I said for the energy related issues to "relax" it needs to go that low.

I actually think it should go up in price to be "norm" since the value is higher. I'm just putting two and two together:
1) I've already mentioned oil price being high per barrel ($80).
2) There are increased additional costs for anything that reaches Europe from the sea (since US decided to turn the sea into a battlefield in support of genocide in Palestine)
2.1) The travel costs went up since certain vessels have to change course and instead of passing Red Sea they have to go around the entire African continent. This adds 30-40 days travel time which means higher cost
2.2) The insurance cost went up too since the risks are higher.

That's the situation in the past ~4 months. Early on some reports talked of a 2x rise. That has only gone up with more tensions.

2.3) Specific to UK, all these costs are higher because UK decided to join US and London in support of genocide, declared war on Yemen that supports Palestine. That effectively turned all British vessels into legitimate targets which has not only increased all those costs but also increased shortage (nobody wants to work for UK and British or British linked ships are attacked/damaged).
Not a week goes by without 3-5 UK or US ships being attacked like HMS Diamond (royal navy destroyer that was incapacitated) or Marlin Luanda (the British tanker that burned for 2 days).


By all logic, an oil product like petrol has to go up in price not down. That's unless it is being kept down.

first of all the oil cost crash of 2020 was the fluke due to futures trades that couldnt facilitate delivery. so people were literally paying refineries to take the contracts..
dont confuse short events of critical events..  with norm expectations

as for you thinking oil should go down to $40 as "norm" pfft.. yet the average of last 20 years is higher then $40.. average is more like $60($50-$70).. and oil has been seen to be $70 in february.. and not been near the $110 peak for a while(May 2022)

the petrol prices in the UK lingered around the £1.20-£1.40 from 2011.. so the expectant back to reality compared to the highs of £2 peak is getting back to the below £1.40 range .. i drove passed 4 petrol stations today. all priced £1.369, which is about the same price average i seen 2011-2019

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if you think oil and UK petrol should go down to pre 2008 levels (under $40 and under £1 respectively) as norms.. sorry but no, just no.
,,
side note. since 2004(20 years) the only times oil went as low as $40. was 5 months(nov2015-march2016) and then the futures oil deal crisis of 2020
$40 is not the expected norm. its the temp crash periods

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separate debate:
the reason fossil fuel costs have come down but the electrification of fossil power plants and renewables are still high. is because governments are charging carbon credits to fossil energy companies which sell on and average out over the grid to make even regions highly involved in renewable higher price because the grid spreads the carbon costs to an average per resident even if its green energy.

Energy crisis "relaxes" when two things happen, first is when energy prices come down (eg. oil goes back down to at least $40 which is half its current price) and second is when energy sources become stable and the routes become safe again. Neither of these has happened for the energy crisis to relax. Now about:
Last time petrol was £1.4 ish was in 2020 when the COVID had shut down the economy and oil price was about $20-$30 per barrel. That's the only way true value of petrol can reach £1.4.
Today oil price is still $80 ish per barrel and despite deindustrialization, the UK economy hasn't shut down like COVID time.

That means the only way price can be £1.4 ish today is if the government is artificially keeping it down by injecting lots of money into it. That money is taken out of every citizens pocket which means it has worse economic consequences down the line even if things seem good in short term.

So as I said, things regarding "Energy Crisis" have gotten slightly better (that is for example oil is no longer $100-$120 per barrel) but we are far from things actually relaxing and something like petrol really reaching £1.4 per liter.

its more about when the gold hoarders are selling to the working-lower class consumers of walmart demograph, and not doing private trade at the rolex/lambo crowd. you soon spot how much they want to get rid of gold

again gold is at its near ATH of ALL history.. so not a buying time, especially when the causes of the ATH have passed.. expect a correction



im in the UK but i also see the views of other places

here in the UK fuel costs went upto £2/litre petrol and now back to £1.36/litre petrol
US went upto $6/gal now back in the $3.20/gal range

Your point is good BUT Walmart is not a good example, they are not selling gold on their site, but rather 3rd party vendors, and gold vending machines are more for bragging rights.


Don't know where in the world you are located, but in most parts energy prices are at some of their lowest point in years. Not getting there, not coming down, but there.

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A lot of what you are seeing now in terms of energy prices are in locations where more infrastructure is being built, which is expensive, which will cause the price to the consumer to rise. Or where infrastructure has been neglected for decades and has to be repaired / replaced which is also expensive and will cause the price to the consumer to rise.

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The other side is believe it or not there are more and more people who care less and less about the pricing so it's causing weird things to happen to the retail price of fuel / energy.

I drive an EV that has free charging included (OK, I know it's not free it was buried in the price of the car by the manufacturer) but to me at this point I just plug in and charge.
My neighbor has a PHEV, and has solar. So for him filling the battery is free (or close enough that it does not matter) and it uses so little gas that he just fills wherever. $2.00 a gallon or $4.00 a gallon. When you are burning 50 gallons a year at most, it's not worth the time to care about that.

Offices are now using LEDs, and more efficient heat & cooling.

And so on.

Even when I had the Accord that got 40+MPG I cared about gas pricing. Before I went to full LED in the condo I was more careful to turn lights off.
Now if I have every bulb on at once it's still less then 60W

So prices are dropping, and on an individual level most people are using less energy.

On the large scale more energy & fuel is being used, but there are now 8 billion people here in 2010 there were 7 billion. So that's going to be a larger part of it.

-Dave

they gave negative trust rating because your clown army you support(doomad hosted) cried to them with victim tears.

as for your research.
you dont read code or blockdata or find real statistics or data.  your research is asking someone their opinion on things and then you copy their opinion.
you are defined as a spoonfed consumer sucking up anything handed to you. not a researcher.

from looking at your opinions they all sound like copy and pastes from social/mainstream media.
when you dont sound like doomad, stompix, you sound like fox news

even your insults are a copy and paste

as for your incessant overuse of the word gaslight.. you need to see who's fueling your flames and causing you to get burnt. the vapour that comes to you is piped in from idiots. if your getting burned by it.. change your fuel source..
because you have become as useful as a gas flaring chimney. not utility gas

..
the main debates i had with gregmaxwell was about how segwit allows junk data to get into blockchain unvalidated due to backward compatibilities lack of need for network readiness/activation of understanding, having rules new formats of transactions... and ordinals proves the exploit

even your mentor doomad now knows i was right, but still hates that i even dare challenge/scrutinise the beloved gods you idolise and trust

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as for chinas gold buy.. such wow. they increased their hoard by 'meh' 10%... and are now offering out gold to help incentivise the unfinished real estate projects to be bought up at market rate by offering buyers a gold brick..
.. instead of discounting the real estate, which would ripple market price decline for other finished housing

EG if a gold brick is $75k and average apartment price is $300k
instead of offering unfinished real estate at $225k to spark buy-ups. they still offer real estate at $300k but give the buyer a $75k gold brick
thus the real estate market stays on paper at the $300k rate and not decline by 25%
get it yet

its the same trick employers do(but opposite to keep salaries low). instead of pay rises which spark inflation, they offer employee's other benefits like pre-tax pensions and healthcare schemes. so that they can keep the salary market competitive(low)

..
as for energy.. fuel costs are coming down to normal levels. which mean production, mining, and construction becomes reasonable again. because facts show the main costs of construction, production, mining is the energy cost. not labour

labour cost is more of a concern in the consumer market of retail

 

Do you actually believe that I post here and say some things WITHOUT doing my own research? Please ser, you've been taking advantage of the newbies with all your gaslighting. That's definitely why Gregory Maxwell and Andrew Chow, both very trusted developers in the Bitcoin community, have given you two negative trust-ratings.

Central Banks are hoarding, especially Central Banks of Russia and China, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/chinas-gold-market-2023-demand-improved-and-premiums-rose