Topic: : - page 2. (Read 13245 times)

nice nice. I see it brings it closer to my original guesstimations. Though I see you now show a drop for 139104. Care to elaborate?


  One other factor I am having a hard time with is the botnet factor. and no, not the pools trouble of last week for anyone else thinking that. Just that keeping track of the total amount they are adding into the net is a pain since they are much more erratic than the pools. Or, atleast they were until they decided again it was more profitable to find a better way to 'fit in' than it was to ddos everyone.

  I am sure you watch the network total hash like I do. I noticed a decline after the last retarget had normailized from its usual dip. It was down by about .8 - 1.2 Thash that I could not account for with normal fluctuations, checking the big pools were not temp out and casual miner dropouts. This was from about 12 hours after retarget up to about 16-18 hours ago, where at which time it grew from the back to normal rate to what it is now.

  I'm having a hard time justifying that with gains from new onlined hardware, etc. Obviously some percentage up is expected and we know even with the difficulty even small ops are still onlining. But, if I may risk putting a guess on it, it seems about 20% of the new growth is not user generated....  I know some of you are gonna see 20% and think holy crap, the zombies are gonna eat our brains but let me repeat I am only refering to 20% of the 800-1200Ghash growth or roughly 160-240Ghash worth that I suspect of currently being botnets....


edit; just wanted to point out that I say 'guestimations' because thats just what mine are. I am certainly not doing any where near the lvl of calculation you are to come to your numbers.

edit2; same with my nethash numbers. Though I feel confident about my bot figures they are derived from semi-casual observation and math done in my small brain.

If difficulty can be constant for a while, miners won't see exponentially diminishing returns looming on the horizon, and may gain confidence in investing in hardware equity that won't turn a profit for three months. I see the difficulty growth barely on the positive side in the next two cycles, with about 50% profit-taking, 40% holding, and 10% reinvestment after, and new mining stronger in October when energy costs are free instead of double (heating your home in winter instead of making your air conditioning run in summer).

Blocks 133056 -> 135072: 12 days 8.8 hours

New difficulty-equivalent hashrate from first 48 hours of this round: 1581572 -> 1563027, -1.2%

Current trading price: $14.25

Buy energy hit stiff sell order resistance at $16, and stagnating at that price was enough to trigger some more cashout. I don't see publicity driving more get-rich-quick money in, as markets have settled in since gox 2.0 and there is not much to report. Mining with new hardware is a break-even proposition. We are approaching the 'viable currency' phase of bitcoin's life.

wow, .9963 corelation

Have the methods you are using now brought that any closer?

Holy, awesomeness.. =)
If I may, I'd like to make a very uneducated perdiction;

1.65-1.7mil at next retarget and continuing a bit up from there to 1.71-1.85 at the following retarget...

yep, the market is digesting, the flat periods are essential, the rallies (or dumps) are just the visible evidence and final outcome of all the mulling that has gone on for some period beforehand ..... a trigger makes them finally make the move on a price that they had already decided on days, weeks or months ago, trigger dates are an interesting angle of analysis also, seasons, moon cycles, tax dates, etc.

... think a drop to 9-10 area is on the cards before the big roller gets up steam again.

After the flurry of news articles the quietness is interesting, lots of normally chattery people are mulling what the heck bitcoin means for them, if they haven't got an answer they like they'll be buying, "can't beat 'em join 'em" types ...

.... even a Lord of the manor has a price that will get him out of bed ....

Very interesting. Ironically, it seems like a good time to invest in mining equipment, as the difficulty shouldn't be going up much in the next month, but if people did that, then the difficulty _would_ rise.

Then again, it is probably an even better time to just buy if you are interested in investing. The price:difficulty ratio indicates that compared to the past, it is a good time to buy, not mine.

I'm guessing this means you don't predict a big price rise soon. Late August?

Indeed. When bitcoins take over the world, chodpaba will be elected supreme ruler.

chodpaba if you can't get wealthy somehow with your knowledge something is wrong with the world and efficient information markets theory

Yes, that was truly incredible accuracy on your original forecast. I did not believe it when I first saw it. It seems to hard to predict. I think it would have been right on the nose if not for the mt gox incident.

I think difficulty will level off at the next recalculation, and it will probably take near 14 days to get there. Potential miners are already cancelling their video card orders or trying to return or restock their hardware bought in the past week. We've learned that the prices on exchanges don't have to always go higher. In the next month ATI won't sell more Radeon HD GPUs than have ever been made. It will take a big bump in the exchange rates for people to go gung ho in buying new mining hardware again.

Nice work.

Around ~3M for block 137088 seems reasonable if the price goes back up to ~$30 before then.

Longer-term prospects of Moore's Law look good.  7000 series AMD GPUs rumored to start shipping later this year, and next-gen Xilinx Artix-7 FPGAs in 1Q 2012 might be cost-competitive with the AMDs.


And then the reported hash rate / difficulty estimate can spike way high just after the readjustment.  I've seen this on bitcoinwatch and bitcoin.sipa.be too.  I think its because they're using the hash rate estimates on blockexplorer.  There should be some method to smooth out the estimate across the readjustment (a short-term estimate with no use of price).  I'd like to use it for my charts.

The stock market tanked after Sept. 11 and also around 2007/2008... did video cards stop getting better at an exponential rate? Nope.

The stock price has been tanking lately.  You know, they've been CEO-less for quite some time now and rumor is, the new guy is from IBM: culture clash.

I bet the cards had an impact on their sales already, no doubt.  But with the increases in difficulty, only gamers will buy new cards now.  Mining to pay for your hardware is a losing proposition now.

What he said.


UPDATE 6/24/2011 4:49PM
Hey look my comment was even updated after being quoted

Can you edit first post with your updated numbers?


UPDATE 6/24/2011 4:46PM
Here is one way to keep the original record and still update the first post.

If you are interested and want to know what I am doing read on

chodapa, what do you think the odds are of hitting 7m difficulty before the end of August?

chodpaba, thanks again for the numbers.

Been running a few, and I noticed that bitcoin charts actually didn't do the usual "Double the T-Hash rate" thing it usually does when we transition to another difficulty level. In fact, the suggested target of 1,378,416 in 1,976 blocks @ 7.85 blks/hr sounds downright reasonable at a slight decrease of -0.06%!

Wonder if they fixed their estimation windows/averaging.

I'm confused, you're projecting a jump from 1,379,223 to 1,684,194 in the next jump, a 22% increase.  But the jump after that is to 2,930,547 - a 74% increase?