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I would just like to state that most of the "fundamental analysis" used around here is very low quality. I think you guys can do better 
You first.
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This is actually incorrect. The numerator is BTC transaction volume and the denominator is BTC/USD exchange volume1. The sharp decline in the chart then makes sense, as we saw a massive increase in exchange volume over the past 4 months which is now decoupled from underlying bitcoin economic growth (people were speculating/anticipating future economic value).
Agreed that the blockchain Trade Volume vs Transaction Volume Ratio displays the ratio transaction volume / trade volume. I transposed the factors described in this post. To check your constructive criticism, I ran the python script myself, and also inspected the most recent respective values from the two source charts: USD Exchange Trade Volume, and Estimated USD Transaction Volume. And I agree that as the bubble formed, the ratio decreased because of the relative increase of trade volume verses transaction volume.
I believe fundamentals will be easier once a steady flow of ASICs is going out and we have a good idea of price compared to mining return on investment.
Current profit margin is 46% assuming hardware costs estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year plus power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cents per kilowatt hour.
With 60 gigahash mining machines coming out, the profit margin is difficult to predict.
There is a point where profit margin can go high enough that people will stop buying bitcoins and simply buy mining machines instead. This will keep the price in check.
Current profit margin is 46% assuming hardware costs estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year plus power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cents per kilowatt hour.
With 60 gigahash mining machines coming out, the profit margin is difficult to predict.
There is a point where profit margin can go high enough that people will stop buying bitcoins and simply buy mining machines instead. This will keep the price in check.
By fundamental analysis, I suppose you mean a determination of fair value without recourse to price history, In financial markets, and in commodity markets, there are no company reports to analyze - one must look at other factors to gauge current and future demand for bitcoins.
I have been looking for fundamental confirmation that this bubble peaked April 10. Here is what I have so far ...
I have been looking for fundamental confirmation that this bubble peaked April 10. Here is what I have so far ...
- Google Trends for 'bitcoin' now shows decline from a peak, when viewed over a 12 month or shorter time frame. This important, because an on-boarding step for new bitcoin investors is to search for information about bitcoins.
- Blockchain.info chart for 'My Wallet Number of Transactions per day' appears to have peaked, when viewed on a log scale with 7 day smoothing. This data relates to the underlying bitcoin economy, including gaming.
- Blockchain.info chart for 'Trade Volume vs Transaction Volume Ratio' smoothed values peaked at 12 in early January, and bottomed out April 15 at 1.4. I was puzzled by this particular chart at first, but a post today explains that the ratio is actually trade volume / transaction volume, i.e. more exchange trades yields a higher ratio.
I would just like to state that most of the "fundamental analysis" used around here is very low quality. I think you guys can do better
Well, it's a currency backed by no government or hard asset whose price is dictated by a single exchange. Thus, a thorough analysis must be heavily seasoned with mass psychology. The answer to "what should the price be?" is "what does the other guy think?". Should be interesting!
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