Topic: . - page 2. (Read 6468 times)

The first movie, Mr. Anderson's boss.

Hmm? That's not from Agent Smith's soliloquy. What part of the movie is that from?

No, no, I meant you phrased your first strategy as if it's just for those who believe "Bitcoin's a bubble", while I am not a bear yet I still somehow use it, and you probably can too. I employ the word "bearish" also because I somehow can't figure out why you brought up the topic of "going short" since you're a obvious mega-bull.

It is one of the sanest methods in trading bitcoin, if you want to trade it. Goes like:

- First you invest into Bitcoin all money, which you CAN afford to lose. I would generally suggest no need to put more than $100k even if you had more, since trading with huge bitcoin positions is clumsy. Also if you only now go all in (remember I did last month), it is only fair you don't buy more than 1000 coins but really whatever..

- You put anything between 50-95% of the coins in paper wallet. I suggest about 80-90% is good for most. The wallet is generated securely with an offline computer that is destroyed after printing the private keys (also the printer is). You print out two copies of the private key. You align the A4 sheets together and cut it in half with scissors. Then you have two copies of the beginning of the privkey, and two copies of the ending. You store these keys in such a manner that it is improbable that a thief would get access to one A + one B key and even if he did, you could outspeed him in combining your remaining keys and spending it to a more secure wallet. Also it should be improbable for both A keys to be destroyed simultaneously, ditto for B keys. This is your core position.

- The rest of the bitcoins, the trading position, you store in exchanges. Every time the price shoots up "too fast" (this forum is full of guesses, whether or not this is true in any particular case), you sell some of your bitcoins. Then you have money trapped in the exchange. You set up your buyback price at a given % lower, such as the previous support or something. After a 20% move in 2 hours, it is reasonable to expect a more than 10% recoil.

- Then you decide your "creep rate". The creep, is an hourly percentage, which I suggest to be between 0.1% and 1.0%. You adjust your buyback level upwards every hour by the creep amount. In practice, you have no reason to adjust it any less than 2% at a time. So if your creep is 1.0% per hour, you need to increase your limit order by 2%, every 2 hours. If your creep is 0.1%, you increase it by 2.5% once per day.

- Eventually your limit buy order executes. If you were nimble, you get to increase your bitcoin stash, if not, you lose. I have been able to beat the market, but I am a fulltimer with 16 years stock trading experience. At any rate, you will never lose out completely since you have your money in the exchange after the moment you have sold, until the moment your buy executes. If bitcoin goes to singularity, you have your secure core position, and you can buy the earth with it. Otherwise you eventually buy back. Repeat when appropriate.

- The ladder refers to either the incrementally creeping nature of this method, or it can also refer to an additional tweak where you use several buyback levels spread apart, and after your bihourly reset, you remove the lowest bid, and add a new bid which is higher than any of the outstanding previous bids.

+1. I want you in my conference.

Ahh yes, I too have been conducting some very rigorous research. It would seem that 1 billion is actually undervalued!

GUYS!!!! I have been doing "deep" research and I guarentee there is no bubble.  I'm looking everywhere and all I see is black, no red whatsoever.  We are headed to 1 Billion dollars by next week according to this deep analysis.  Here is a picture of me doing my research....



http://christianschooljournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Head_in_Sand_Denial_Ignore.jpg

The Bears are digging!

Whoa.

I'd like to share a revelation that I've had, during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify our dollars. I realized that they're not actually money. Money acts not only as a medium of exchange but as a store of value. Every form of money throughout history has followed this principle, but our dollars do not.  They are issued as naked debt instruments by banks and the interest multiplies and multiplies until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can pay back the debt is to print more money. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. A virus. Dollars are a disease, a cancer of this planet, they are a plague, and bitcoins are the cure.

Agent Smith, that you? 

This is a suitable thread to mention that about 60-90 minutes after this post, I will post an invitation to a Bitcoin Supernode Summit. It will be held in 2 weeks, I am sorry that it is both so soon and so late. I tried my best to find a suitable time and place.

Admission will be hard-limited to 50, and the tickets are both expensive and increase in price over time, to gauge the interest.

I have no idea what this means. Bailing out with a ladder. If it is what I think it is, it seems extremely risky. Care to explain?

You call me "bearish"   Just a week ago you congratulated me for my net gain of BTC1000 over the last week since I was the only bigname bull to actually utter a bearish prediction at over $200, remember  

I hate this place. This zoo. This prison. This reality, whatever you want to call it, I can't stand it any longer. It's the smell! If there is such a thing. I feel saturated by it. I can taste your stink and every time I do, I fear that I've somehow been infected by it.

I must get out of here, I must get free. In this Bitcoin is the key. My key. Once Zion is destroyed, there is no need for me to be here. Do you understand? I need the codes. I have to get inside Zion. And you have to tell me how. You're going to tell me...or you're going to die.

Well, I utilize a similar method to you without being bearish, and I never sold more than 10% of my holding, I just think selling with a predetermined schedule is better than trying to call the "top".

By "short" I do not mean a net short, I mean "I currently have BTCX less than the highest amount of BTC I have ever had."

I do not intend that metric to go to BTC2000 or more in the near future. Even if it does, I am still net long, and I have a double problem of having invaluable BTCs and too much dollars that I don't know what to do with them. Gox won't let me withdraw more than $10k per day.

The latter fact practically ensures that BTC can never go down, only up.

Why did you not use your own advice? https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1927726

Selling with a predetermined schedule, my experience is that in the end you will more or less get back at a cheaper price, though I am not sure after bears have blown so much wads.

LOL, still BTC1,500 short. Now I'm bailing out with ladder that increases 0.7% per hour. Either I get to buy back at a slight 15-99% loss, or bitcoin's price will rise faster than that.

If the latter is the case, in June 8th, it will be at $300k (my target) and then I will just say f-k it, and invest my dollars in something else.

For the last 7 days, I have been more busy giving bitcoins away than earning them.

It is indeed helpful to understand the exponential function. Otherwise you end up trading based on emotions, and there are already enough dead bears.

It looks to me like this is both bubble growth AND real growth. The bubble growth is raising the price ceiling, while the real growth is raising the price floor. The only hard part is, determining where the floor is at any point in time, as the bubble is always overlapping it.