if you were east coast I would make a push to acquire the funds for a local pickup.. i love the west coast but that adds some extra factors and timing
Topic: ** (Read 4447 times)
26% per fortnight....
Making nethash assumtions and projecting difficulty is always the hardest part. Everyone ASSUMED that Avalon batch 1 will be a bad loser because of all the hash power from BFL hitting before it. In fact, everyone with Avalon batch 1 made a killing. So, do your math but keep in mind that any future hashrate estimate is just that - estimate, nothing more.
Agreed, caveat emptor is always a good rule. Have a nice day now
80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.
Why does everyone forgets the RESALE value? What you're saying is that in 80 days this Avalon will have a 0 resale value... sorry, this does not look realistic. Once you add back a resale value to your ROI calculation, it is becoming very hard for difficulty to raise fast enough to leave you with a negative ROI. Everyone should do their own math, of course, but to assume that in a couple of months this unit will be as good as useless is an obvious stretch of imagination.
Nice try, but you'll need to find a buyer who's a bit weak on the math too, otherwise you'll only get its value for its remaining mining life, which won't make up the difference between what you paid and the sum of your mining earnings.
I've gone over my math with the help of http://coinish.com/calc and I think I've been wildly over-optimistic. 209BTC would be the breakeven price, assuming the rate of change of difficulty remains unchanged. 26% per fortnight would breakeven at 165BTC
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2369876
But kudos on getting such a good sale price
I posted this in the newbie thread, but I think it could do with repeating here.
^^^^ ... this. But let's try working backward. 80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.
damns 250btc, 80 days ROI with current difficulty, making it end of August starting to mine for profit, there will be very short period of time to make good profit, the next 80 days, probably, will make less then half of that sum, as all the asics hit the market (and i'm not talking abut bfl), if 30% of bfl hit the market till September, which is probably not going to happen, 80 days will make about 50btc.... but this still profitable not as it is now tho...
^^^^ ... this. But let's try working backward. 80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.
can get a better picture of what to expect outta the unit w/ ... http://www.coinish.com/calc/
for example: @ 1.3% diff increase / day, delivery a month out, given market rate stays same - only expect about $16k gross....
for example: @ 1.3% diff increase / day, delivery a month out, given market rate stays same - only expect about $16k gross....
It's a bargain at 150 coins but not at 230.
I doubt any of those bids are actually real. You'll never see the coins. That has been the complaint of most people who have been trying to sell Avalons and Avalon pre-orders on ebay, bitmit and here. There are a lot of people who make bids they later decide not to honor which drives the price way up. All of the reasonable people who actually have the coin to spend don't bid that high because they know they will lose money. But all of the sellers only ever see the high bids so that's what they believe their unit is worth.
With the next difficulty looking like it will be well over 15,000,000 before this unit arrives at the winners house, I don't see how it can ever make back its cost.
But if you actually get 230+ for it, good for you.
I doubt any of those bids are actually real. You'll never see the coins. That has been the complaint of most people who have been trying to sell Avalons and Avalon pre-orders on ebay, bitmit and here. There are a lot of people who make bids they later decide not to honor which drives the price way up. All of the reasonable people who actually have the coin to spend don't bid that high because they know they will lose money. But all of the sellers only ever see the high bids so that's what they believe their unit is worth.
With the next difficulty looking like it will be well over 15,000,000 before this unit arrives at the winners house, I don't see how it can ever make back its cost.
But if you actually get 230+ for it, good for you.
Personally I would think very seriously about buying something with more than 1 month ROI. If people are right about growth 73ghs will only get 1 btc a day in a month 
How is this relevant? What hardware can you buy right now that will give you a 30 day ROI?
asicminer sells blades 50 btc per 10ghash, so 230s not crazy high. Still think 2.5 btc per ghash is my entry point.
I'm you will probably find someone that will pay around your 'opening' price because there's still the Bitcoin ASIC fever going on but I highly doubt much more. I'd have started the auction a bit lower.Considering ASICMINER blades pricing of 50btc * 7 = 350btc for the same GH/s, it's clearly a bargain. Especially keeping in mind that those blades will be shipping god-knows-when while this unit can start mining for you tomorrow. If no one is willing to make a reasonable bid for this unit, I'm quite content keeping it to myself. I'm not in any hurry to sell it at all.
I don't think it's a bargain at all, you are comparing it with ASICMINER blades which are hugely overpriced and that will NEVER reach ROI, so...
I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.
Good decision placing that batch 1 order!
Well, it was far from a certain bet at the time... remember, Avalon was supposed to ship 5 months AFTER the BFL initially...Yeah I am not trying to be rude - just a little facetious.
Personally I would think very seriously about buying something with more than 1 month ROI. If people are right about growth 73ghs will only get 1 btc a day in a month
Probably why he is selling it now...
As I told you earlier: it may reach 230BTC, or it may not. In my opinion it will probably b/e if it's delivered today, but the profit after b/e will be very low compared to the high investment. Personally, it's a risk I wouldn't take.
Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all.
Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all.
OK, sorry if my reaction to your posts comes across as too emotional, but I really DO think that at 230 BTC it's a bargain. We can debate the exact amount of expected mining revenue but in the end no one knows, all hashrate projections are entirely speculative. But you seem to totally miss my argument: in ADDITION to expected mining revenue, this Avalon will still have a resale value a few months down the road. Why should not it? FPGA miners still sell at essentially the same price now as they did 9 months ago, even though they are barely competitive. Why do you think an Avalon will be worthless in a few months?
And if you take a resale value into account, I do not see how you can say in all honesty that it will not have a positive ROI at this price, regardless of any speculative difficulty estimates.
Well, I don't think that ASICs will have the same resale value of FPGA's, as the latter can be used for other purposes, while bitcoin ASICs not.
Anyhow, please accept my excuses for hijacking both your auction post and this one. I think it's perfectly legit to try to get the maximum price the market is willing to pay for anything you or another member is willing to sell. It's just that I've been a noob too, I know that there are many variables to take into account when doing this kind of investment, and when I see old-timers making ambiguos claims about ROI or difficulty projections I feel bad for the noob that may feel the urge to "hop on the train", blinded by greed, because I realize that many of those noobs do not really understand the huge spike in difficulty we are going to face in the following months... Jeez, most of them do not even understand what the "yearly profitability decline" at bitcoinx.com/profit means, so they just leave the "0.61" value it comes there by default, which will for sure take them to believe they will have much greater returns that they will actually have.
What I really want to know is this: if this machine can generate so much revenue, why would its owner want to sell it for even as much as 230 BTC?
You are right, 230BTC does not even look very appealing to me given the revenue potential of the unit. In fact, I hoped that the bids will run much higher because of this potential and the simple fact that this is the ONLY offer on the market right now allowing you to start mining with 71,000 MH/s ASIC hashing power right away.
Seems like I was wrong, people either do not understand the real revenue potential of the unit or are not able to do the cost/benefit analysis properly. So, maybe I just wind down this auction and keep mining with the unit. I will keep track of its REAL performance, and once it hits 230 BTC, I'll let Rampion & co know how wrong they are with their FUD.
As I told you earlier: it may reach 230BTC, or it may not. In my opinion it will probably b/e if it's delivered today, but the profit after b/e will be very low compared to the high investment. Personally, it's a risk I wouldn't take.
Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all.
1,000,000,000 difficulty for June 2014 sounds extremely high, but it's not out of the question, just look here:
Sure, just punch in any arbitrary assumption of your choosing, and you can arrive at any answer that fits your argument. Garbage in, garbage out. Using the SAME profitability calculator (http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/), just not messing with the assumptions, I calculated the following:
Garbage in, garbage out? Ok, let's see where the garbage is:
- First, you keep the 71GH/s as hashrate, as it was possible to achieve 100% uptime
- Secondly, you keep the 0.15usd/kwh - ok, maybe your buyer is from the USA and can enjoy that price
- And thirdly, AND MOST IMPORTANT: you have the default 0.61 profitability decline on the calculator, which either means that a) you don't know what that variable means or b) you want some ignorant noob to be blinded by greed. The 0.61 yearly profitability decline, that's the garbage in you are talking about. A yearly profitability decline of 0.61 means that in twelve months, difficulty will only grow by x1.64. Are you really saying that you believe than in June 2014 the difficulty will only be 19 million?
OK, willing to accept an escrowed bet? I give you 3:1 odds on your favor, and I bet that difficulty in June 2014 will be at least double than 19million. But I know you will not accept, because you know very well that a x1,64 increase (or x2,32 as I propose in my bet) in difficulty in the next 12 months its just impossible.
I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.
Actually, I'm quite confident that Avalon will mine much more than 230btc in the next months, and it's resale value won't be 0 after that either. Just do your math, it's quite simple really.
In order for it to mine LESS than 230btc, the difficulty needs to rise more than 3.1% PER DAY for the next 40 WEEKS, increasing about 150 times from current level by September. Increasing the total network hashpower 150 TIMES in just 4 monts?! Sorry, but I just don't see this as even remotely realistic scenario.
In any scenario where the difficulty raises less than 3.1% per day every day month after month, gives you mining profit. Plus, why do you assume that resale value of Avalon will be 0 after that? GPUS and FPGAs miners still sell quite well even though they are barely competitive, why would Avalon be suddenly worthless in 4 months?!
Your math is wrong. For it to be unprofitable the difficulty has to gradually go x90 in the next 12 months.
Here:
1,000,000,000 difficulty for June 2014 sounds extremely high, but it's not out of the question, just look here:
And consider that in the calculations above, apart from the increase in difficulty, all the other variables are in their "best case scenario" for you:
- 71GH/s, and we all know that 100% uptime is impossible
- 0,15usd/kwh, which is an electricity rate impossible to get in many countries
230BTC for 71GH/s delivered today may get a ROI, or may not. But I can tell you definitely that it is not a bargain as you suggest.
asicminer sells blades 50 btc per 10ghash, so 230s not crazy high. Still think 2.5 btc per ghash is my entry point.
I'm you will probably find someone that will pay around your 'opening' price because there's still the Bitcoin ASIC fever going on but I highly doubt much more. I'd have started the auction a bit lower.Considering ASICMINER blades pricing of 50btc * 7 = 350btc for the same GH/s, it's clearly a bargain. Especially keeping in mind that those blades will be shipping god-knows-when while this unit can start mining for you tomorrow. If no one is willing to make a reasonable bid for this unit, I'm quite content keeping it to myself. I'm not in any hurry to sell it at all.
I don't think it's a bargain at all, you are comparing it with ASICMINER blades which are hugely overpriced and that will NEVER reach ROI, so...
I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.
This is perfectly legit, no problem with that, but I have to say that I'm amazed to see how sellers clearly send confusing messages that can very much trick gullible noobs in making an impulsive buy... For "confusing messages" I mean calculating ROI at current difficult without taking into account any profitability decline rate, or comparing it with a piece of hardware (like the ASICMINER blades) that nobody sane, or at least looking for a ROI, would ever purchase.
I started an auction thread for this item, please place your bids there: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--156709
I think that's a link to your FPGA auction thread, if that was intentional, you may want to start a new thread in order to eliminate any possible confusion.
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