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Arvicco

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Please bear with me

Quote from: ?? on ??

I tried looking at some shorter term regressions, and I have to say that it only makes the picture more confusing.

Finally, i have settled on an even longer term than I was using when I started the thread that seems to put things into a pretty good focus. Given that, I am seeing a quiescent equilibrium point at about $114-$115, and I expect exchange rates to seek this level in the mid-term, or until we start to see some sort of concerted pressure one way or the other.

You're tracking only MtGox USD orderbook volume, right? I wonder if your analysis may be invalidated due to the fact that MtGox USD is currently illiquid trapped asset at best, and pure fiction at worst. There is strong suspicion that MtGox is artificially pumping 'virtual fiat' into their orderbook since May, which mostly coincides with the 'active management' artifact timeframe that you mentioned.

In my opinion, latest MtGox orderbook dynamics confirm this suspicion. Think about it, since July 12 MtGox orderbooks show almost linear inflow of up to 1 million USD per day, while other exchanges' orderbooks are pretty much flat. I mean, seriously?! Someone is putting 1 million USD per day into exchange that is NOT processing fiat withdrawals, but not into other LIQUID exchanges that have NO such restrictions, and BETTER exchange rate? Are you kidding me?

If this is indeed the case, your high equilibrium assessment is invalid because it is calculated based on 'virtual fiat' bid volume that has nothing to do with reality, but is there just to create an illusion of high demand.

I'd love to be proven wrong on this of course but Occam's razor is a fearsome weapon.

meh32123

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Are we back in Denial once again?

BitPirate

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RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

I'll call him "Lamont" then Tongue

BitPirate

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RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

This is very interesting.

Wouldn't such "active management" be ultimately quite self-defeating (if the goal were to reduce volatility), in that it hides real supply and demand until a much greater tipping point is reached? When the "manager" finally capitulates, the price will be much more volatile than it would otherwise have been were price discovery to take place naturally. (Perhaps this is their aim?)

Assuming your hypothesis is correct, can you track back to see where the pattern first shows itself? Mid-May?

Also, for the sake of argument, how can you distinguish between manipulation and normal market activities -- e.g. large-scale arbitrage. It strikes me that other exchanges have historically anticipated Gox price movements (e.g. China markets are higher in a bull market, lower in a bear market, and very close if unsure).

Adrian-x

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It's my feeling there are some issues with Gox and the flood of ASICs coming on the market and some market testing on the go.

While XBT may be undervalued what is the possibility of some safely offloading given the uncertainty in the near future?

This is very engaging.

notme

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Quote from: candoo on July 12, 2013, 11:46:32 AM

We see a very high dead cat bounce right now. Its just a question of time to drop off.

BTW you can win my avalon for only 1 BTC Shocked

(raffle)!

I really doubt you'll find 250 people who are willing to gamble that much.... but this is bitcoin. Honestly, I'm surprised you have 9 already.

candoo

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Vertrau in Gott

We see a very high dead cat bounce right now. Its just a question of time to drop off.

BTW you can win my avalon for only 1 BTC Shocked

(raffle)!

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oda.krell on July 12, 2013, 08:45:13 AM

By "positive demand" you mean non-lagging demand (compared to your initial posts)?

Yes, that is what I mean.

So positive demand will act as a positive feedback loop to accelerate the price once we reach this number?

oda.krell

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By "positive demand" you mean non-lagging demand (compared to your initial posts)?

randrace

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LTC -> BTC -> Silver!

Quote from: ?? on ??

But, I can say what I do because nobody pays attention... Just another ping in a sea of noise.

I'm listening... And I like what I'm hearing!

Great thread.

oda.krell

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oda.krell on July 05, 2013, 07:11:02 PM

tangentially related: do you have an opinion on positive/negative volume index?

Um, not reallly. They are indicators. They give you part of the story.

Well, they're wide apart right now. Judging by the charts, more than ever in bitcoin history, with PVI down and NVI up. I can sort of see an interpretation that would lend support to your hypothesis of as-of-yet unfulfilled demand.

Kazu

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: vokain on July 01, 2013, 04:04:41 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

What I can see is that demand has been lagging supply by a small, fairly consistent amount since about May 4th. So small, and so consistent that it appears to me to be something that is being actively managed. This is not something that can be undertaken profitably for the long term, particularly if price starts dropping below what the regression shows to be a demand equilibrium (the lower of the two). When that happens, pent up demand builds.

I expect this lag in price can be explained by the manner in which liquidity has been impacted on Gox. Once that situation is corrected I don't want to be on the wrong side of that trade. Bears have made the case that USD will flee Gox once withdrawals can be made reliably routine... My expectation is that the opposite will happen. That once confidence about being able to manage liquidity returns, the deposits will come rolling in.

Personally I chose not to wire money last week to mtgox because of the possibility they don't open up withdrawals, not to mention the inflated prices. To Bitstamp it went.

That is the dynamic that is causing price to fall on Gox, and consequently everywhere else, since everyone is correlated to Gox.

But this is in the form of pent up demand. You can tell by the way the bull-bears are salivating.

Thats actually a super-good way of explaining this.

So by this logic, we should be roughly half-way through the bitcoin 'depression' stage already? o.o

oda.krell

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tangentially related: do you have an opinion on positive/negative volume index?

tokeweed

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Life, Love and Laughter...

Quote from: chodpaba on June 28, 2013, 02:13:56 PM

You are probably wracking your brains trying to figure out where we are.

Near as I can tell we are in a part of the cycle very similar to the time period of April 11, 2012 to May 16, 2012. I base this on a supply/demand dynamic that I see through a form of OBV regression. It shows that longer term demand is slightly lagging but close to supply, close to balance. And for the short term up side and down side risk are also roughly balanced. But take this as a warning, the longer that the price is below the short term equilibrium point the more upside risk there is.

talking head talking.

oda.krell

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I see what you mean now. But is there any formal way (within your framework) of distinguishing between "erronous signal" and "demand destruction"?

oda.krell

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It is probably my original hypothesis that needs adjusting. The indicator (not really a model) still shows the response to the $OBV and BTCOBV regressions to be fairly balanced. Although the spread is getting a little wider now. Meaning that BTC demand is softening. OTOH, this pattern often occurs right before demand reverses.

The thing that will tell the tale of whether we are heading higher or lower is what occurs when trader's ability to manage liquidity on Gox returns.

Since, by my reading, there is still pent up demand I still have to say that there will be a concerted reversal in the direction of demand when this happens. Whenever the regression is above the current price level, which it is currently, I read it as pent up demand. Although, an alternative reading of that condition is demand destruction, I still do not believe that is what is happening.

Oh, it's a model alright. Then again, I have the habit to call every single of my inane ideas "theory". Physics people tend to call me out on that.

2 more questions? If you'd rather not disclose your methods any further, no offense taken.

(1) How did you conclude that your OBV regressions, in relation to price, if I understood correctly, are an accurate predictor? Do you have an actual correlation, or is the assumption based on eyesight?

(2) You lost me at "demand destruction". Do you have any good motivation to interpret the signal for "demand" as, well, the opposite of demand?

oda.krell

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Quote from: Crypt_Current on July 05, 2013, 01:15:05 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 05, 2013, 01:02:24 PM

I'm not coming back to this thread to gloat, but because I honestly would like to hear what your thoughts are on what is going on right now.

So, do you need to adjust your model? Or are you going to say this was within the parameters of what you expected?

doubtful it needs adjusting... capitulation takes time. You're a young one, aren't you?

And you might not be young, but you certainly don't like to read the rest of the thread, do you?

I was trying to find out what OP thinks about the rather drastic decline in price, after he said that his model picked up (somewhat opaque) buying pressure.

Had you read my earlier posts in here, you would have noticed that I questioned that. So I'm not the one surprised by the latest action :D

Dalib

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A Top Web 3 Gaming Layer2 Provider

Panic begins, fall is accelerating ...

Crypt_Current

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Shame on everything; regret nothing.

Quote from: oda.krell on July 05, 2013, 01:02:24 PM

I'm not coming back to this thread to gloat, but because I honestly would like to hear what your thoughts are on what is going on right now.

So, do you need to adjust your model? Or are you going to say this was within the parameters of what you expected?

doubtful it needs adjusting... capitulation takes time. You're a young one, aren't you?

oda.krell

legendary

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I'm not coming back to this thread to gloat, but because I honestly would like to hear what your thoughts are on what is going on right now.

So, do you need to adjust your model? Or are you going to say this was within the parameters of what you expected?

Topic: . - page 3. (Read 10754 times)