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I believe the worst of the dumps is over. They are being completely absorbed by whales’ limit bids that are waiting at, and below $40,000.


It slowed it down, but it will never cut all cash flow into Bitcoin. In fact, the ban has made Bitcoin more valuable.

Medium-term for me starts once everything from China is done for, and not just the PBOC statements, everything I mentioned before, as there will be a lot more news, there will be probably some arrests, some raids, some more services shutting down one by one, once this is all over I expect a period of continuous small gains, starting probably December / January,  not without the usual pumps and retracements but noting really major till another event will act as the trigger for a new ATH, but probably 2023, not 2022.
So medium would be at around 12-16 months in my opinion.

If nothing bad happens I don't see any reason to turn bearish, the empty mempool that has been going like that for two months tells me that people are switching to full hold mode, and there is no way to have a continuous dump without coins being dumped.

As for the 2017 comparison, I don't like comparing situations that were in the past, for me TA and indicators are best used to try to make animals or other funny pictures fit the graphs,  past situations that are happening in somewhat similar fashion are just coincidences, not rules. On top of that, I'm not really a fan of percentages, all my life I've had to deal with situation when we didn't have to pay 6% more on a bill but 136 euros on top of the previous, for example, so when somebody sees growth of 300% from the other ATH I only see 40k so my perception of market changes is a bit different and far more relaxed.

Short term we all see what's happening, there will be a few waves of dumps as news about exchanges and other businesses shutting down, like the announcement of Huobi, probably more to come from, I expect Bitmain to stop dealing with crypto soon, probably some pools will also close their servers in China so short term meaning few weeks we will probably hang around if nothing really really good comes to compensate this.

Medium and long term, no hiccup, bitcoin will continue its growth the rest of the world can easily fuel continuous growth even from now on, the tiny problem is with the end result, but this can't be quantified that easily. It's clear that once it hits peak usage in all the world except China the growth will stop as that country is cutting any cashflow into it, it's just like companies that have managed to grab various market shares around the world can't go that much up since they can't enter the Chinse market which represents 1/7 or 1/5 of the world depending on what you use, population, money, total wealth.

Bottom line, the growth from other sources can easily sustain the exist from the markets caused by this, it will take some time but things will resettle although it won't be an overnight thing. One can look at the hashrate that is still 20% lower than it was before all the drama and right now I doubt it will be able to reach it by the end of the year.

Now nothing from China will crash, or cause those mini-crashes for Bitcoin. It should be a sad day because the “China FUD” was an indicator to start buying the dip, and it has always given plebs the opportunity to buy Bitcoin with a discount.

This time the ban is real.The previous news about crypto bans in China were mostly about crypto trading.
Anyways,I don't think that the Chinese government is going to regret losing tax revenue from the crypto miners and crypto traders located in China.This tax revenue was an insignificant amount,and the Chinese communists simply wanted to kick out all crypto miners from China,so they could reallocate more electricity to the industry and to chow the world that China is "green" and "friendly to the environment".
Pushing the digital yuan is another part of their agenda.
Bitcoin would have been stronger with China on our side,but on the other hand,Bitcoin will be fine without China.

They are been so manipulative recently and actually we cannot see any huge effect happen to the market since I think many are already aware that the moves they make at this moment is simple fuds which the main intention is to create panic to the market, maybe they are into something which they can get benefit but one thing is for sure is they will not totally block or ban bitcoin in the long run since its a huge loss for them if they do so since remember bitcoin is already a multi billion dollar industry or maybe we can say a trillion with the whole and its a huge money lose for them if they will not allow bitcoin usage to their country.

Don't believe news all kinds of news comes from china dude it is all lies Chinese media there is controlled by their government and now Chinese government don't like crypto that's why they do ban crypto cause they can not control it but i believe that china's ban on Bitcoin would be their lost because they are not only the users of it, Bitcoin is not waiting for china.

No doubt, they are all FUD. They are good at spreading it and they knew there are shaky hands in the cryptocurrencies industry.
All they have to do is attack that portion and they will have a successful spread of FUD. Just like Covid. 

Didn't we already learn our lesson for the last few years? They are always in the spotlight whenever Bitcoin breaks its new ATH, creating FUD after FUD, or sometimes they will pretend to break their own market to make it look real when in reality nothing was broken. It's just the media which they control that spread the news.

The reason why China banning Bitcoin was more severe in late 2013 was because it was speculated that the run up from like $30 to $1100 was the Chinese buying Bitcoin. And China has strict capital controls and Bitcoin threatened that since many could easily take money out of the country that way.

So when China banned it finally, people called the top because they knew BTC would go down since there would be no buying pressure left. Combined with the MtGox mess it’s what started the 2014-2015 long bear market. These
Days China is not as relevant.

This is in general with FUD. The same thing happens in the stock market. Strong companies have short term swings due to FUD but in the long term they continue to rise.

According to the chart that Ratimov puts up, China's first FUD happened when the price of Bitcoin hadn't even reached $10. Look where it is now. The right thing to do is hold and forget about FUD.

I guess it also matters that this has been repeatedly going on for years already. So when something is happening over and over again, there will definitely come a point when people playing in the market won't mind it at all. How many times have we heard of a China ban on Bitcoin? It happened a number of times. If it had effect the first time it happened, or even the second and third time, it won't have anymore effect on the succeeding. A ban is a ban. It should happen only once. If a ban happens a number of times. It means it is pointless to even implement it.

Not really sure if Chinese government are buying in this dip and causing chaos so that they can fill their bags. Maybe there are data around, but we can't say accurately because they are not releasing the data obviously. As others have said, the effect will not last that long, this has been proven in the past. Once this negative news have settled down a bit, the price will bounce back and maybe this will signal another bull run in the future or at least before we closes this year.

Do you really think that China is banning Bitcoin to spread "fuds" and crash the price? Like some top-rank officials from the Chinese government are manipulating the market like Bogdanoffs from Bizonacci's clips?


We don't know how different would the things be if China never made moves against Bitcoin. Maybe there's some parallel reality where China never banned Bitcoin and the price in Sep 2021 is $100,000. We have lived all this time with a priced-in fact that a large portion of global population and wealth is not able to legally participate in the Bitcoin market.

I think people are just overreacting to this kind of news, Bitcoin is not only in China so no need to worry.
And also they are worried because most of the miners are in China? I don't think so this can be considered as a reason to be worried too, Bitcoin was created as decentralized and anyone can use it not only depending on 1 country.

On the recent dump because of China banning crypto, look how the price bounced back, it's just a sign that Bitcoin showing how strong it is.

China is trying to manipulate the whole market by spreading such FUD, for sure they are buying on every dip and this could be an opportunity to buy as well because when the FUD dies, the price will recover again just like in the past. Chinese news is not a big thing anymore because of their history on spreading FUD, the panic is not that big anymore.

Based on the chart, Bitcoin will react on those negative news but a few days later, it will start to recover and aim for a more heights again and this is what happened over the past years of having a negative news from China, Bitcoin can’t be controlled by anyone and its really good to see this one so there’s no panic in the market because of such FUD. China is always be a China, they are banning everything that is against their own law and Bitcoin is just a one thing, later on the effect of the recent news will be nothing in cryptomarket.

It proves a few things, we really need to zoom out after these "big" news events and
it proves that Bitcoin is bigger than any country. If China wants to close the door in
Bitcoins face the effects on the market long term is nothing.

Also with the recent going-on's in China it is dangerous to use high leverage trades,
the markets can move quickly resulting in many liquidations.

Indeed, we don't need to focus on those fuds from China as they did this type of banning every time whenever bitcoin was on bullish movement or market's having positive vibes. It's like "banning from China" and "Bitcoin's Bullish movement" is friends forever. Like the attached one..

Wasn't around in 2013, but I always assumed from historical reading that the China ban actually merely coincided with a more significant even... the collapse of Mt Gox which, by relative comparison to its share of the Bitcoin market at the time, was a cataclysmic event in itself.

That was the context I understood to signal the end of that boom cycle.

2017 was strange yeah, but I always saw THAT rally as the sentiment that arrived when the much-feared Bitcoin "civil war" ended much as most of us here expected.

Your chart proves it though I think. In isolation, China doesn't really sway markets (beyond the temporary).

China's crypto bans are bad in a few hours, few days but weeks later, price moved up more. Not bad at all.

You are only safe with China's crypto bans if you don't use leverage for your position. If you are spot traders or hodlers, you are fine.

https://twitter.com/gaborgurbacs/status/1441371865625206792
https://twitter.com/geenty/status/1441403448562388994