I'm quite happy the potential of $250k/btc was left off
. I think if we got an ath around $100k, we might start seeing more erratic moves again trying to drive us higher.
I can also see it having detrimental effects in the short term. I imagine it wouldn't stay at 100k for long, and would have a sharp correction. Therefore, unless Bitcoin gradually gets to that figure, it could cause panic. I would much prefer seeing Bitcoin reach new all time highs gradually, and then correct only a couple of thousand below, and then stablise at around that price for a long period, rather than taking a massive jump up.
I don't think massive jump ups are a benefit for short term adoption.
I would say that anyone who has never been part of previous cycles will not be able to predict what the future holds. I get that it is not something that many people could comprehend, and they do not know how it acted before, but this is usual for all the other ones.
I get that it is regular for us, I mean we will have great years, then we will have altseason, then we will crash, then it will be like that for a while and during that crash it will go down a bit, then a bit more than a bit more and so forth, then it will stay like that for a very long term without moving much, sure a 10-20% move but that is nothing in crypto, and then suddenly it will be another skyrocketing increase. It has always been like that and will keep on being like that again in the future.
I don't think you have to be involved in Bitcoin at the time of the last cycles to be able to read a chart, and make an educated guess on what might happen in the future. Though, that's all it ever is; a guess based on historical happenings. Therefore, isn't all that reliable.
The thing is that the nature of the markets can change in a fundamental way during that process, maybe you are right and this is something that is going to keep happening, however the circumstances are different now, institutional investors are putting their money in bitcoin as a safe haven and now even countries are investing in bitcoin, the adoption is higher and the economy is in a bad shape, so even if the price crashed I do not think it will remain there for long as the buying pressure that we are experimenting is too high for that to happen.
It's highly unlikely that Bitcoin continues to follow the same path over, and over. As you say things change, and as evidence in the past Bitcoin reacts to what's going on around it. In fact, it can be partly manipulated by news stories, at least far more than fiat currencies. So, I suspect that the driving force behind the price will be the current stance to Bitcoin, and the news surrounding it rather than repeating historical cycles.