Maybe it will be below $30k as the bottom of bitcoin, but having the right number will not be easy because when people panic like today, they will throw their bitcoin right away before they lose more. But I am okay if the price is below $20k or even at $10k. It seems the price is getting pushed to go down now, and the price reaches $34k, lower than before. So it will make most people follow to dump their bitcoin at once and wait for another bottom price.
This January is a blood bath for crypto and I guess it will remain until next month so prepare your money to buy back at the dip or you will regret missing the right time to invest in crypto.
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We can throw in as many numbers as we want, but there is no solid basis on which to predict where the price will stop - and as things stand we are in free fall at a time of year when purchasing power is at its lowest, taxes are knocking on everyone's door, inflation is on the rise, and geniuses who have used the printing of money en masse for the past two years to save their positions have realized that they can no longer do it.
Bitcoin is part of the system (did we want an adaptation?), and all those stories about safe heaven and hedge against the nonsense of the modern world crumble like a tower of cards when your asset loses 50% in just 2 months or less. Not to be misunderstood, I’m still for Bitcoin - but this could have happened 2 months ago, or 2 months from today - the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we’ll soar to new heights.
And where is the absolute bottom? It may be under $30k which has been shown several times last year, but it won't surprise me if it's close to $20k. Trust is a really tricky thing, and there seem to be very few people who believe in Bitcoin these days.
Bitcoin is part of the system (did we want an adaptation?), and all those stories about safe heaven and hedge against the nonsense of the modern world crumble like a tower of cards when your asset loses 50% in just 2 months or less. Not to be misunderstood, I’m still for Bitcoin - but this could have happened 2 months ago, or 2 months from today - the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we’ll soar to new heights.
And where is the absolute bottom? It may be under $30k which has been shown several times last year, but it won't surprise me if it's close to $20k. Trust is a really tricky thing, and there seem to be very few people who believe in Bitcoin these days.
I *think* we are going to see sub $20000 and then a climb back up.
Sadly, people are stupid. I have been hearing so many people talk about the fact that they made a nice profit in 2021 in BTC but now had to liquidate more because they forgot to put some aside to pay their taxes.
So now they are selling to cover the tax bill and are seeing it go lower as other people sell to do the same so instead of waiting for the possible bump up, they just sell. Which then keeps the price pressure going down so others who are on the fence about selling want to get out and so on.
The other thing I have seen is people who put in stop loss prices are now seeing them trigger.
-Dave
Sadly, people are stupid. I have been hearing so many people talk about the fact that they made a nice profit in 2021 in BTC but now had to liquidate more because they forgot to put some aside to pay their taxes.
So now they are selling to cover the tax bill and are seeing it go lower as other people sell to do the same so instead of waiting for the possible bump up, they just sell. Which then keeps the price pressure going down so others who are on the fence about selling want to get out and so on.The other thing I have seen is people who put in stop loss prices are now seeing them trigger.
-Dave
Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.
you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market. 
I've seen a lot during my Bitcoin journey, since 2013. To be honest, I'm clueless about what's going to happen. Is it concerning? It is, I didn't believe that we would lose the $40.000 resistance. Up to this point, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar pattern of 2017 occurs. Bitcoin suddenly crashes, facing huge losses.
To be honest, I'm pretty disappointed, but I'm trying to keep my cool, not panic and not do anything stupid.
To be honest, I'm pretty disappointed, but I'm trying to keep my cool, not panic and not do anything stupid.
This is an interesting analysis. Without the usual, hard to grasp statistical mumbo-jumbo. Thanks Ratimov. While the 15% residual bottom is an interesting theory, did we ever had the kind of cliffs waiting to break even from the buying points of institutional investors?
I think this will pretty much be a cycle of reckoning. If the institutions and individuals falter, there'll most probably be a selling spree that we cannot imagine and sub-10K wouldn't be so far away. On the other hand, if they continue to hold below their buy-ins, and do not close positions, it'd mean a huge endorsement for the fact that 1 BTC=1BTC.
And then we'd see a bullrun that has always been prophesized, lol.
Whatever maybe the bottom, I am going to ask those close to me to invest and buy what they can.
I think this will pretty much be a cycle of reckoning. If the institutions and individuals falter, there'll most probably be a selling spree that we cannot imagine and sub-10K wouldn't be so far away. On the other hand, if they continue to hold below their buy-ins, and do not close positions, it'd mean a huge endorsement for the fact that 1 BTC=1BTC.
And then we'd see a bullrun that has always been prophesized, lol.
Whatever maybe the bottom, I am going to ask those close to me to invest and buy what they can.
My guesstimateredictoinTM was for a high of 77k and a low of 12.6k: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/comparing-bitcoin-halvings-2012-to-2020-and-now-looking-ahead-to-2024-5375808 - the 77k is looking unlikely (though still barely possible I suppose) so maybe the low will be nearer 15k? Suggesting even more of a smoothing of the cycles than I thought.
Well of course the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is £0, but I think that is a very remote possibility. Bitcoin is the only virtual money that has a hard asset value, and now that we know how to initiate 51% attacks, it is unlikely to have any competition in the future. I suspect that the price is being manipulated, and that the financial houses are busy accumulating right now. This hasn't happened before, so it is difficult to try to guess when the next bull run will happen. I suspect that it may have a bit further to fall, but I have a bad track record for predicting Bitcoin price movements. For this reason, I think I am going to start picking up £500 blocks of Sats as the price drops.
In my opinion, the greatest threat to Bitcoin is the massive accumulation by the finance houses, and we can guard against this by buying and HODLing. Running a node will help as well. When I've installed some solar panels, I might try a bit of solo mining, and I know I probably won't find a block, but if enough of us do it, then some will get lucky.
In my opinion, the greatest threat to Bitcoin is the massive accumulation by the finance houses, and we can guard against this by buying and HODLing. Running a node will help as well. When I've installed some solar panels, I might try a bit of solo mining, and I know I probably won't find a block, but if enough of us do it, then some will get lucky.
Price somewhere around $20k will be bottom range for Bitcoin. I see price soars from $20k so if Bitcoin has serious correction to where it began, it would stop around $20k.
I don't bet Bitcoin will drop to and touch $20k but I don't exclude it from my plan. From $35k to $20k will be 45% correction and I think Bitcoin if falls to $20k, will need a few weeks to drop to it. It is easy for whales to dump it to $20k in last week of January or first week of February but I don't think they will make such manipulation. Because they will keep it last longer to make people feel tired, boring and shake them out from the game.
I don't bet Bitcoin will drop to and touch $20k but I don't exclude it from my plan. From $35k to $20k will be 45% correction and I think Bitcoin if falls to $20k, will need a few weeks to drop to it. It is easy for whales to dump it to $20k in last week of January or first week of February but I don't think they will make such manipulation. Because they will keep it last longer to make people feel tired, boring and shake them out from the game.
Maybe I’ll call it $20k bottom as the worst case scenario. Probably I was thinking between $25k to $28k as the bottom where a lot of supporters are going to defend this range, but we can’t just simply be sure about that due to the fact that the market is very unpredictable. Congrats to those who have shorted Bitcoin recently, they’ve made happy gains for that.
20K$ is the worst case and if ever the price hit that low. I believe the price will go more deeper since its buying price of all investors that bought bought crypto on the latest bullrun cycle. But it will need a major bad news to make that happened since there's already a lot of institutional trader that trading in crypto. There's no way they will not gonna make a move and bought this kind of dip since this is a good opportunity to manipulate the market once again.
I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.
I neither agree with pooya one hundred percent, but I can't unsee this connection between the cycles and the halvings. Bitcoin's first four years were very significant. Half of the coins were brought into circulation. In the second halving, which occurred in summer of 2016, another 1/4 of the coins were included into circulation, leaving only 1/4 for the next halvings. In other words, if we assume the demand increases as times goes on, we should feel extremely bullish as it gains more scarcity. I guess this cycle is over, but I don't cross my arms. Again, nobody knows nothing.
Maybe I’ll call it $20k bottom as the worst case scenario. Probably I was thinking between $25k to $28k as the bottom where a lot of supporters are going to defend this range, but we can’t just simply be sure about that due to the fact that the market is very unpredictable. Congrats to those who have shorted Bitcoin recently, they’ve made happy gains for that.
I can't predict the bottom but I can tell you one thing, you can't compare the current drop we are experiencing with previous bear markets after the bubbles for one simple reason: this time we did NOT have any bubble. You can see it in my avatar too, price had to reach at least $400k for it to be a bubble of same magnitude as previous cycles.
I heard something similar from you when I predicted the start of a bear market in 2022. You claim that all this does not make sense and historical data mean nothing. I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.
We have gone through all stages of accumulation-restoration-growth. Now comes correction, it will be beneficial to everyone except speculators. There is an opportunity to finally enter the market at a reasonable price. Holders will pick up cheap coins, build up positions. Speculators and market tourists will panic sell below cost. All according to the standard scenario.
I am sure that the market has lived, lives and will live like this. And we will not see 400,000 soon, maybe not even in the next cycle. So can already get ready to catch the bottom.
Previously, I was in the category of "Speculators and market tourists will panic sell below cost" but over the years I have moved to the category of "Holders will pick up cheap coins, build up positions".
My portfolio is more than 50% down yet I am not so worried because we know that sooner or later bitcoin will recover from it's bottom and move towards another ATH.
There is a strong support at $28k - $30k level which I think won't be broken since bitcoin is currently in the over sold region as per RSI.
So may be this range can be a bottom and then we might see bitcoin going sideways through out the year slowly recovering by the end of the year.
At this point we can do nothing but speculate and derive our own theories as to what might happen.
There is no doubt that some circumstances have changed but as one of the traders I used to follow would always say, respect the market cycle. When talking about the floor price, I also don't know. I'm currently looking at $30K but this is just the first month of the year. It's probably just a market reaction to the upcoming Chinese Lunar Year and the Russia central bank ban proposal.
please be patient all this is a test, don't forget to have breakfast to be strong to face reality, many people are against bitcoin even the government is doing everything possible to bring down bitcoin, recently the russian central bank also submitted a proposal to close bitcoin mining, now what we need is to build each other up trust, the price of bitcoin has now dropped below 25k, everyone is panicking but we have to wait and be patient..
I can't predict the bottom but I can tell you one thing, you can't compare the current drop we are experiencing with previous bear markets after the bubbles for one simple reason: this time we did NOT have any bubble. You can see it in my avatar too, price had to reach at least $400k for it to be a bubble of same magnitude as previous cycles.
Consequently you can't expect the same level of dumping and a similar bear market if the bull market and the bubble wasn't even close to being the same.
If you compute the 85% dump from this ATH you can see that it would reach $10k which makes no sense either since all previous bubbles dumped to a price was above their starting price and the previous bubble ATH. For example the 2017 bubble ended at $20k and crashed to $3k which was 3x higher than the bubble before that (~$1k in 2013). If we drop to $10k that means we would be falling to half the previous bubble!!!
My point is that we either should have gone up to $400k or we can no longer use the "cycle" theory and previous cycles to speculate the future price.
Consequently you can't expect the same level of dumping and a similar bear market if the bull market and the bubble wasn't even close to being the same.
If you compute the 85% dump from this ATH you can see that it would reach $10k which makes no sense either since all previous bubbles dumped to a price was above their starting price and the previous bubble ATH. For example the 2017 bubble ended at $20k and crashed to $3k which was 3x higher than the bubble before that (~$1k in 2013). If we drop to $10k that means we would be falling to half the previous bubble!!!
My point is that we either should have gone up to $400k or we can no longer use the "cycle" theory and previous cycles to speculate the future price.
-snip
That's awful. We've just begun the Bitcoin winter (according to past cycles) and we are already bleeding so much. Almost all of the top 100 coins are down 20% just today. From the looks of it, it's going to be rough. I don't even know if it's good to invest right now.
Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.
What's eating at me right now is that ATH was barely 10 weeks ago and we've already lost almost 50%. I was prepared for a downfall, sure, but I was almost certain we'd reached a point where Bitcoin wasn't going to get all supercycle again (no more 10 x parabolic move up), before falling on the sword for extreme crashes. So the "slow" 20k to almost 70k suited me.
But this unwinding at speed, certainly January anyway, seems to suggest you're right after all, Bitcoin's still a cycle asset and in decline now -- but 20k surely has to be the floor for me. If Bitcoin were to break that floor, then we'd also have a first time for Bitcoin to go below an ATH set in the previous cycle.
Not sure I know what to do with the implications of that.
But this unwinding at speed, certainly January anyway, seems to suggest you're right after all, Bitcoin's still a cycle asset and in decline now -- but 20k surely has to be the floor for me. If Bitcoin were to break that floor, then we'd also have a first time for Bitcoin to go below an ATH set in the previous cycle.
Not sure I know what to do with the implications of that.
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