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Symmetrick

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on March 14, 2022, 04:49:16 AM

I do not know if this would be possible by 2030, but I know that if the marketcap is increasing, the volatility will be reducing. But if using 20.7 million mined coins to evaluate it (estimated roundup of bitcoin to have been mined by 2030), this will be what the marketcap of bitcoin would be if the price is assumed to be $1 million:

Just don't forget that bitcoin's volatility is created mainly by derivative products and those traders who actively use leverage. The biggest provider of volatility for bitcoin is the derivatives markets. As the price increases, the use of borrowed funds will also increase. The fewer coins in circulation, the greater the volatility. I doubt that if bitcoin is worth $400,000, then the volatility will be lower than it is now. Exchanges will still draw the required trading volumes and will still provide unsecured derivative candy wrappers. Because if you have 1 BTC and decide to use 100 leverage, the exchange will lend you 100 bitcoins. You will make 1 buy and 1 sell, as a result, the trading volume will increase by 200 BTC for 1 trade, even if it is a short-term one. There is no way exchanges back those borrowed 100 bitcoins with physical bitcoins, it's all air, just numbers in the interface, but they affect the volatility and price of bitcoin.

As the volume of derivatives continues to grow, so will volatility, regardless of the value of bitcoin itself.

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 14, 2022, 02:55:10 AM

At the beginning of the year, ARK Invest released a large report on the future of the crypto industry. And this report says that the $1 million price of bitcoin will be a reality by 2030.

Full report here: https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf

What will the $1 360 000 bitcoin price be made up of?

...

It is also expected that in the future bitcoin will increasingly be recognized as legal tender and its share among global assets will continue to grow. There will also be an increase in the number of bitcoin holders who accumulate their coins in the long term.

Other metrics indicating the expected growth in Bitcoin capitalization:

...

Brave claim. Bitcoin in 8 years at $1 million. Although in this booming industry, you can expect anything. Few people in 2011 thought that bitcoin would reach $1,000, for example. Last year, bitcoin was able to reach a trillion dollar capitalization and its value was almost $70,000. Bitcoin adoption continues its expansion and over these 8 years we can expect 2 more full-fledged market cycles (growth-fall-recovery-accumulation), and if you consider, that with each cycle, bitcoin has grown in price several times, then there are, of course, prerequisites for such a development of events, described in ARK Invest.

Who thinks about this?

If countries continue to open their arms to Bitcoin, then it's very likely it'll go past $1m in the not-so-distant future. From time to time, Bitcoin has proven to break records in price so I'm confident it'll reach the designated milestone in no time. Big companies, investors, and some governments are already pouring money like crazy into Bitcoin even though prices have relatively stalled. I'd say we're heading into the right direction as Bitcoin becomes one step closer towards being a global cryptocurrency used by anyone worldwide. Who knows if by 2030 the world becomes "hyperbitcoinized"? Just my thoughts Grin

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 14, 2022, 02:55:10 AM

It is also expected that in the future bitcoin will increasingly be recognized as legal tender and its share among global assets will continue to grow. There will also be an increase in the number of bitcoin holders who accumulate their coins in the long term.

With all indications, this is feasible even within a short term range, because bitcoin is gain a massive daily increase of investors and stand as the most accurate store for digital assets and a guaranteed investment that does not input a total loss of capital, this store of value (bitcoin) has on several occasions top the profitability of even gold and it is more preferred than any other asset but the controversial aspect is when i read on the news on how Russian investor are currently sourcing out for crypto asset conversation into Fiats and physical properties in the green pasture of Dubai.

I understand the effect of the ongoing war might have triggered such moves but why a sudden change of crypto conversion into physical asset when bitcoin is still the best available option for currency conversion and store of value. Am sure before the end of this year more countries will join in adopting Bitcoin as a legal tender.

Charles-Tim

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I do not know if this would be possible by 2030, but I know that if the marketcap is increasing, the volatility will be reducing. But if using 20.7 million mined coins to evaluate it (estimated roundup of bitcoin to have been mined by 2030), this will be what the marketcap of bitcoin would be if the price is assumed to be $1 million:

Market Cap = Current Price x Circulating Supply
Marketcap = 1000000 x 20700000
Marketcap = 20700000000000

That is 20.7 trillion marketcap. I hope this may be possible. But we should know that the more the marketcap is increasing, the price volatility is reducing.

But I am not doubting this may be possible, bitcoin has been well adopted and is well valued now. Gold marketcap in 2001 was $2.26 billon, and now over $12 in 2022. Also possible bitcoin can grow this far, even if the price is never worth $1 million by 2030 (but which I think is possible), the price would have grown significantly.

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 14, 2022, 03:19:56 AM

I think that the full 4-year cycle of bitcoin has ended and $69 000 is the new ATH that we will aim for in the same way as it was with ATH at $20 000 at one time (but I will be happy to be wrong). Even so, we have two full-fledged cycles ahead of us, and if in each cycle Bitcoin rises at least 4 times from its previous ATH, then over these 8 years we may well reach the $1 million mark.

Just a point. If in this cycle the ATH was $69K, it would not be fulfilled that the price rises at least 4 times, in this case it would be 3.5 approximately. And if this is the case, I doubt if the spectacular returns for Bitcoin would be over by now. At the time I created a thread about it. If we think that the higher the price and market cap, the more difficult it is to move the price and that the natural tendency would be for the ATH of each cycle to decrease, it would be normal to think that in the next cycles it will not rise at least 4 times the ATH of the previous cycle, but at most 3.5.

All this is pure speculation and we do not know if a given event could catapult the price up or down. If, for example, Amazon announced in this cycle that it supports Bitcoin payments and buys Bitcoin for its reserves, I think we would easily beat $69K, but I am pretty sure the returns in percentage terms are going to go lower as time goes by.

Symmetrick

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 14, 2022, 03:12:48 AM

Comforting to read and makes me all warm and fuzzy, have to accept that 8 years into the future will be difficult to comprehend (I've only been properly in Bitcoin for six years and it's already a lot to chew on) but that's 2 halvings down the line, and a whole lot of economic development yet to come.

I'm only in my fifth year in the industry, but back then I couldn't dream of a $40,000 bitcoin, but now it's a reality. I like that bitcoin has already made itself known in Europe as a means of payment (talking about the adoption of bitcoin by the Swiss city of Lugano)

Perhaps, in the future, European states will not follow the path of El Salvador, where the whole country accepts bitcoin, but accept bitcoin in individual cities. For example, in each country, there will be at least 1 city where bitcoin is accepted as a means of payment.

Quote from: Poker Player on March 14, 2022, 03:14:05 AM

If the predictions for last year had come true, and especially if some like the supercycle theory had come true, we would be thinking that maybe in one more cycle we could reach that figure. But if we stay at $69K as a maximum for this cycle, it may take much longer.

I think that the full 4-year cycle of bitcoin has ended and $69 000 is the new ATH that we will aim for in the same way as it was with ATH at $20 000 at one time (but I will be happy to be wrong). Even so, we have two full-fledged cycles ahead of us, and if in each cycle Bitcoin rises at least 4 times from its previous ATH, then over these 8 years we may well reach the $1 million mark.

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Quote from: Symmetrick on March 14, 2022, 02:55:10 AM

At the beginning of the year, ARK Invest released a large report on the future of the crypto industry. And this report says that the $1 million price of bitcoin will be a reality by 2030.

Well, that's been said for a long time, I the first one I remember hearing was McAffe and his famous "I will eat my dick" if it didn't reach $1M in 2020, which he later lowered $0.5M. I think those of us who own Bitcoin expect it to reach that figure, the question is when. If the predictions for last year had come true, and especially if some like the supercycle theory had come true, we would be thinking that maybe in one more cycle we could reach that figure. But if we stay at $69K as a maximum for this cycle, it may take much longer.

Quote from: Symmetrick on March 14, 2022, 02:55:10 AM

It is also expected that in the future bitcoin will increasingly be recognized as legal tender and its share among global assets will continue to grow. There will also be an increase in the number of bitcoin holders who accumulate their coins in the long term.

Well, that depends on the "expert" you ask, just yesterday I responded in a thread where the expert predicted the opposite.

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Comforting to read and makes me all warm and fuzzy, have to accept that 8 years into the future will be difficult to comprehend (I've only been properly in Bitcoin for six years and it's already a lot to chew on) but that's 2 halvings down the line, and a whole lot of economic development yet to come.

I do agree digital gold should be the biggest chunk of use case, retail and otherwise, but not sure yet that seizure resistant asset would take that much of the cake. I thought the use case was pretty clear already during the JCPOA period and height of Syrian flight, but maybe I'm underestimating what states will attempt over the next 5 years when revenue needs become urgent.

Symmetrick

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