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Honestly, I don't think so. You can never say for sure that we are avoiding inflation until we will come out of this crisis. But from what I see, we are not avoiding it and are probably in a recession right now. The problem is, inflation is not going down despite rate hikes, if you will look at the latest PCE and CPI, you will see that inflation went up 0.1% which is bad news because the fed pivot already started so ideally we should see inflation steadily going down.
So we are still in a bad place right now cos rates are high, the economy is suffering and inflation is still going up.

Whoever has recently been in the market, he will worry about such movement of prices, but who has already seen several cycles, he can perceive this normal, because each time even in bear market the price remains higher than in the last cycle. On the global graphics, we are still at the bottom, and now the most important thing is not to sell, patience and Hold will bring profit in the future.

Bitcoin isn't the stablest asset either few days back it was trading around 25K now its in mid 23K so there is loss of value and its huge compared to the inflation rate even if its extreme that volatility beats the value in a day vs per annum.

But looking at the chart its going up after every cycle that's why people recommend HODL so there will be high returns in next few years and don't panic for everyday market movements.

That's probably because when inflation rate is high, people with money take refuge in assets like Bitcoin to save their money from getting inflated. Similarly, when the inflation rate is low, people start saving up but again with the fear of inflation, they don't do it in traditional ways but modern ways of saving like buying and storing Bitcoins.

Either way, it's a win-win for Bitcoin and it's admirers with global economy dropping or growing, we will always see significant growth over time for Bitcoin. More and more institutions will see this change and will surely get around Bitcoin and try to leverage to technology in their own favor.

Honestly, I checked and couldn't see the two top highest ones, were they omitted because they have high inflation? Argentina and Turkey has officially the highest ones, these are nations that reached 100% levels officially, probably a lot more considering governments would want to hide it as much as they possibly can.

At the end of the day, it is not an easy task to have something like this going on, 100%+ is surreal, imagine paying double for everything, and that's the average, which means somethings got three four times more expensive as well. Lowest inflation is fine, I wonder how the people from highest inflation actually feels about crypto.

But all this intel discussin is to prove that bitcoin can't go down because big company can't be wrong by investing in mining chip technology. But history is full of such mistakes. Like KODAK or NOKIA. Nvidia also made many mistakes trying to fulfill ETH miners needs during ICO bubble in 2017.


Its not from ATH but from halving date price. So if we will have halving @ 30k, its possible to bounce from last ATH.


Agree. Predicting a reversal of a strong 10 year trend is most often a mistake. But its also worth to mention that bitcoin was created in 2009 (after GFC) and existed only during a decade of booming economy and globalization. I'm not so sure we are booming now and will be in next few years.

Nothing is certain. There are only probabilities.

It seems that you are trying to find a correlation where it doesn't exist.
Inflation is slowing down because:
1.The supply chain disruptions get solved and the global economy is adapting.
2.Increased interest rates by the big central banks.
3.Reduced demand for some goods, which pushes the inflation levels down.
4.The expectations of a recession are still strong.
The Bitcoin price is going up because:
1.There aren't any major FUD news.
2.No big crypto company has went bankrupt/hacked/exit scamming.
3.The US dollar lost a part of it's value in comparison to the first half of 2022. This means that one BTC is worth more USD than before, because USD is cheaper, not because BTC became more expensive.

This is the gift that Satoshi Nakamoto gave to us, it is indeed an opportunity have another option to hedge ourselves from the rising inflations that is almost uncontrollable and then profits afterwards for choosing bitcoin as an option. Apart from that, when the factor is just about inflation, there's just less risk that bitcoin will eventually goes higher because lots of people will begin to choose bitcoin to avoid inflation.

I think you are seeing patterns in things that act naturally to important announcements in the Press. We know that some people regard Bitcoin as a store of value, so they might react to negative news on the inflation rate. They might look at Bitcoin or Gold to protect their wealth, but I think more institutional investors are shifting their wealth to Gold.

The inflation statistics are manipulated on a continuous basis to boost the global economy, so I will not just rely on that to determine my trading decisions. 

it's good, but we still need to wait until FED will lower rates because economy is still in danger and something could breakdown any day now. So be carefull buying crypto right now.

The results of this depend on the people who are reading CPI. Like what they would do once the CPI results are already out. I think it's a highly complex case knowing that there are a lot of factors to consider

I think of it this way:
- If there's a high CPI rate, then they would be looking for a hedge against inflation; hence, markets that are best for hedging, like BTC and real estate, would go up. The results of this would cause the other markets, like stocks, to plummet.

It's hard to pinpoint because there's no right trend based on the graph provided. You can see the CPI increased and decreased, but there's no solid information given. It's still circumstantial, right?

The problem with CPI is that it is a flat out manipulated lie.

I talk about mining ASIC chips. I don't know if they make the miners too or only the chips and it doesn't matter much in this discussion. Even if they're only the chips, they have no other use than for mining Bitcoin or similar coins, hence being used inside mining hardware.
And they can sell a good number of units only if mining stays profitable. Else the mining businesses will certainly not invest into new hardware... At least this is how I see the things.
The Intel miners (ASIC chips or full devices, whatever) are a novelty, but I doubt people (and businesses!) will only buy them as collectibles 


This math is actually not too bad. But this means the next pump will go 2-3x from the last ATH (if no recession or bigger war). And this contradicts the initial statement that in the next decade (meaning 10 years) the price stays in the 20k-60k range.
So what I've missed or where we don't understand each other?


That's correct. Still, the history has shown for now that the difficulty went down only for rather short periods of time and this trend seems to still be strong. For how long? I don't know, but, again, it breaks that 20k-60k range prediction.


Franky1 has some interesting calculations he posts here and there. According to those, now the minimum price for obtaining bitcoin (by the miners) seems to be at about 15k (maybe 16k).
The halving will make that minimum price become 30k (maybe 32k), hence I think that it's still the main fuel for the next massive pump (or bubble).
As I said, your long term calculations are not bad, still, last block (777359) had 6.25BTC block reward and less than 0.25BTC tx fees; the tx fees are still not a big enough percentage of the total income to make a real difference. I think that the problems you're telling about will really happen only when the tx fees will become larger then the block reward.

Nice job on highlighting the correlation between inflation and the price, op! Some time ago, it could have actually been surprising to me. My intuition around 2019 was that an economic crisis would hit soon, major fiat currencies would collapse via hyperinflation, and that's when the world would realize that Bitcoin doesn't suffer from that, can't be overprinted, and can save wealth when the economy is suffering. Interestingly, my intuitions were completely wrong, as when inflation hit the top currencies, the panic spread to other markets, including cryptos, and when things started looking better, people started feeling more confident about investing money in stuff, particularly in Bitcoin.

In other words, inflation and recession have not affected the journey of bitcoin and this has been proven time and time again. The total availability of bitcoins creates a demand on the economic relationship (Supply and Demand) in its course, while the supply decreases causing the bitcoin price to increase, and moreover many holders do not release bitcoins and continue to accumulate them for the long term, so that demand is only available on a few exchanges.

The fact is that bitcoin allows investors to limit their exposure, so that when confidence in fiat currencies wanes in the midst of a recession and ongoing inflation, many people will move their assets to bitcoin. I think these two variables are quite close to the actual analysis. Possible!!!!

How does inflation benefit BTC? I thought that the more inflation on the dollar the poorer people are getting and the more likely they are to look for an alternative? Inflation happens because of printing off money and the government needs to pay that back and they rely on the people to pay it back with increased inflation costs. If the inflation reduces it means they are not printing as much money off and the economy will be more affordable and stable and people will not look for an alternative currency.

We need inflation to continue rising so that the people get tired of the rising costs and look for deflationary currencies and BTC is 1 of the only currencies which is designed to be deflationary and we will get more adoption because people will find us because of the rising inflation cost.

What you write makes sense to a certain extent, as inflation can indeed indirectly affect the value of Bitcoin. For instance, it can erode the purchasing power of fiat currency, prompting investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin. Therefore, it can indirectly cause an increase or decrease in the value of Bitcoin

Miners have to sell their bitcoins to pay their electricity bills especially small miners who can not have good budget to hold their bitcoins in bear market. Miners who have bad financial management and take too high leverage in bull market will not only have to sale off their bitcoins but will also face with bankruptcy.

Miners have miner capitulations

It will, if not in 2024 it will make a new all time high in 2028 or 2032.

I believe in controlled supply and good adoption growth of Bitcoin, its demand will only become bigger. Price will have to rise and new all time highs have to occur.

They are a hardwere producers not a miners. So they care to sell x amount of units not about how profitable they are. Am I wrong here?



You are right that example I posted shows very far future. My point was to show the end-game that we are heading too. How negligible the last halving will be. So the good question is where are we now? We know that first halving (reduce inflation from 25% to 12%) had huge impact on price and was fallowed by a 100x pump. Second one (from 9% to 4,5%) was fallowed by a 40x pump. Third halving (from 4% to 2%) and a 6x pump. 4th halving will reduce inflation from 1.5% to 0.7% and its possible that we will do only a 2-3x pump or not if markets will be disturbed by recession or WW3.

5th halving and we will cut inflation from 0.6% to 0.3%. Does it matter? Especially if we evaluate bitcoin in a currency that inflation changes by 1% in a month/month basis.

I know the narrative, that miners wont sell at loss so price have to go up. But price will go up only if we assume that demand is constant. Which is not. It can go down as well and those miners that did not sell at loss wont have cash to pay for bills and will go bust reducing difficulty for others. Other miners will mine cheaper bitcoins that they will sell at profit even lower. Difficulty doesn't have to go up all the time.

I'm not saying that bitcoin will not reach new ATH. I'm saying that all 3 scenarios posted above are possible and the fact that we will have halving in next year doesn't change that.

So this proves when inflation goes down the price of Bitcoin will rise and ironically when it goes high the price even get higher unless the price of Bitcoin affected by other factors.

Bitcoin on the rise no matter what, one more valid proof to hold Bitcoins over fiat at whatever situation it is.