Topic: .. (Read 2179 times)

I'll HODL
Gets tempting to try to figure out that bell bottom though so rather just sit on the coins for a while and see how low it goes.

I agree, the fundamentals have not changed, and also the phrase "to da moon" needs to stop.  This does nothing but make bitcoin into a ponzi like scheme, which is designed to bubble.  Market cap is still huge, now is NOT the time to sell

The current ticker price tells NOTHING about the global adoption of Bitcoin.

So please give some decent proof, also if you believed that the "mainstream" would already be rushing in, you did not do proper research or was to quick to believe the first person telling you... but most probably you were blinded by big dollar signs.

We need speculators to give it some value, then we need merchants to keep the value, finally the mass adoption comes in, and if you think this will all happen in 1 year, wake up kid you're dreaming.

Yeah, Bitcoin did not take off like many people had planned. I knew we were off course sometime ago in June/July, but people were like, "No, you can't really call the bubble off yet." I knew that once we failed to reach above 700 for weeks after the 680 peak that we weren't going to make it.

18 days ago I was really pessimistic, "I am going to be looking at the weekly chart. Ultimate Oscillator has not once broken through 70. At this point, nothing is following previous bubble cycles with respect to the indicators. When they should have been into the overbought stage right now they are instead falling. There is no news or anything positive that would catalyst us."

Which got a reply of, "Eh? Look at D3 and compare RSI, STO & PARA between now and what happened around the silk road incident... I see a lot of similarities.

I'm not saying that we are not going to push down, it is entirely likely but I think your analysis is way off and you're being disingenuous with your TA claims. "

Keep in mind this is when the price was barley below 600.
___
Before that I posted something 27 days ago about the bubble being off schedule.
"Lets all get this out of our systems now. The bubble cycle not on schedule. It is instead replaced with more gradual steps that we see happen every few weeks. A couple hundred gain here and some slight loss there. Nothing to worry about.

All aboard the steady growth train (as in the occasional burst up once in a while or having bubble cycles that are much farther apart)! Woot! woot! This chart kinda represents what I was thinking https://www.tradingview.com/v/6CH3mMXt
 
(not mine)

-- Sentiment wise we are not near the stage I would have liked to be in given everything that we have seen. Much skepticism is good for the market, but I cannot tell if people are in or out. Tomorrow we could suddenly see dramatic drop in price. Don't take this whole post too seriously, it isn't based upon much."

   Which got replies such as, "I wouldn't write off the bubble completely just yet...", "Although I'm not sold (or was ever sold) on the bubble theory, it's ridiculous to look at a few days of trends and claim[,] 'We can definitively say there are no more bubbles, we will now see gradual steady growth.'", "I agree that the bubble cycle may not continue[.] [H]owever, six weeks of data is not enough to say that slow and steady is the new pattern."

When I was talking about slow and steady growth with these people I was meaning less big moves. Just some hundred dollar gains and some losses there. Surprisingly it has been rather stable until the past few days. Even that is a drop in the bucket with what we had been seeing. The sentiment right up to weeks ago was still "Bitcoin bubble here we come!"

Yes, I was just commenting on the sentiment in late 2013 and early 2014 that "2014 was supposed to be 'the year of bitcoin'!" That's all.

Actually, if you look at the very long term this has been the longest bull market. Going from a few pennies to 500. =

Mid term has only been positive in May before we went slowly downwards. The bears have decided to took over.

True -- 2014 was supposed to be "the year of bitcoin"! More like the longest bear market yet.

Don't fret, bulls, we bears have just been wanting cheap coins all this time. Now I just hope $300-400 coins won't look expensive next year! But that is possible, too.

That doesn't proove anything.

Price was almost $1,000 at the start of this year, and now it's $518.

'nuff said.

Could you give some proof for all your statements?

One of the most overused phrases in the bitcoin community for 2014:

"The fundamentals have not changed!"

It doesn't matter. The world around bitcoin has changed, and that's what you should be paying attention to. Merchant adoption has now happened, yet the price has fallen all year, and the mainstream is not rushing in to convert their cash over to bitcoin like this community once believed it would at this point.

After all this time, pretty much the only thing people are using bitcoin for is a speculative vehicle. Clearly bitcoin is not being embraced by the outside world as a new, superior form of currency. When people bought in during 2011, 2012, and 2013, thhat is what they were hoping for. But it's not happening... so what do we have left to speculate on? The price will go up... just because...?

Even if a huge retailer like Amazon accepts bitcoin in the future, why would regular people become convinced to use it? It hasn't happened yet, and it won't. Bitcoin fundamentals are a moot point.

Yep, dude is terrified. Been seeing his crap all over this forum. OP -- take your position as long term (unleveraged) and sit back. The fireworks may continue yet. No reason to fret.

Still a long term bull here. But if it frustrates you that people are trading this, that's on you. My coins from the $460s are feeling pretty nice right now.

wise words indeed.. they were relevant then and they are relevant even now...

i posted this before in another thread and will do so again in the hope to awaken sleeping minds...not many people realize that bitcoin just jumped ahead of its true price due to mass scale MtGox fraud... instead they somehow expect the pattern to repeat, what many don't realize is it wasn't China pump per se but rather well organized MtGox fraud that ignited the gambling fever in China which created illusion of sudden wealth while distorting true reality in gullible minds of many people... a lot of people suddenly lost their senses and thought that they'd retire rich not thinking hard enough about where all that money needed to come to get them there.... nowadays every bull is just blindly echoing another bull's echo saying "we'll go up soon, this is just shakeout, correction, this is manipulation, 5 digits soon and etc"... At the same time there are other bulls that are finally understanding the truth of the matter is that bitcoin is not immune to what's going on outside the world and it's time to cut losses while you still can or put brakes and save fiat for a better day.. despite bitcoin's innovation it's still the least item on investors' mind when you look around hard enough to see much uncertainty arising from geopolitical tensions, economy indicators that are flashing red, low investor sentiment, governments threatening with bans on cryptos and etc.. even mighty whales that bulls hail about give up eventually to cover other expenses or diversify into real assets such as gold and silver in times like these..

i'm neither bull nor bear just someone trying to stay sober and i haven't lost a single faith in bitcoin's future, just that i should've seen this coming and reduce my exposure.. oh well i'll hold till at least to a point where i can recover my initial investment..  in my view crypto is just evolving into something better that will suit times ahead of us.. will it be bitcoin? could be but as you can see its very survival is at stake and if it doesn't evolve fast enough and make its blockchain more valuable somehow by introducing more innovation then there could also be alternatives too, just like vonage that revolutionized voip... i'd rather keep cryptos that are immune to shit like bitlicense, regulation, surveillance and wealth confiscation because as we approach WW3 that's the first thing governments will do to fund their wars... make sure coin is free from pump and dump purpose, innovative, has a good dev support and community...

Thanks, devin. I like your style too. No homo. (a bit homo.)

Trade - or hold - safely.


EDIT avatar from genius webcomic PBF,  http://pbfcomics.com/253/

Donkey with a carrot stuck to its head.

It is never a bad time to buy bitcoin when fiat currencies around the world are experiencing inflation. 1-2 years from now even if Bitcoin only follow inflation you'd still have more money than a bank account CD or bonds. Plus, you have full control over your Bitcoin whereas a bank can freeze and do whatever they want to it.

I agree with OP. I paid over $1000 USD for my first bitcoin. I bought more at $800. I bought a lot more at $400. I'm still buying. I don't try to time the market. I just buy at whatever the price is when I have the money to buy more. I've never sold. It's a high risk investment. I understand the risks but I think in the long run it will be a great investment for those who buy and hold!

Not the worst advice. Listen to OP, especially the newcomers.


That said (and believe me, I'm not gloating/trying to rub it in), now is also the time to repeat what has been said so many times before:


Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.


There. In bold, 14pt and red.

If you kept that rule in mind, you're safe to ride this one out.

If you didn't, and you see your kid's college fund melting away, then this ride will be nauseating. I'm not going to suggest to sell now (see OP), but I do suggest that, at the next opportunity (i.e. when price has recovered) you reduce your exposure to a level that allows you to sit out swings like this without losing your lunch.

I bought at 2.5 years ago. I'm a long time holder.

Looking to add to my position if we drop further.

The keywords throughout the entire conversation were some and about 1-2 BTC max.