In the end the seller sets the value of bitcoin. Or anything. All the market tells us is the lowest price that a seller was willing to part with his property for.
So for my part, I will not sell any of my bitcoin for less than $2k. And then only a few if I need the money. But if the market was at $3k, and I needed the money, I would sell a coin because it is greater than the $2k that I value my BTC at (now).
On the reverse side of this, buyers always buy at the lowest price possible.
The phenomena of the market is the willingness of sellers to sell at a low price. If every seller were to sit back and say: "I'm not selling my BTC for less than $2k", that will be the price on the market tomorrow. Because there will always be a demand for BTC, at any price.
So in reality, the OP is actually onto something here.
Topic: . - page 2. (Read 6069 times)
The Winklevii ETF will be a game changer, but I'm guessing the market will go 10-20X higher pre-announcement.
I giggle everytime I hear this line... This ETF is NOT coming out lmfao! Everyone on wall st already knows this man, you guys need to catch up!
I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
Total respect dude. You have my total respect.
I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.
Didn't the distribution changed? I hope more than one whale cashed out during the " falling" ..
The distribution is constantly changing, but most BTC are still owned by a small percentage of people.
Trying to figure out if there is another way the average bitcoin price could be calculated other than being set by the largest exchanges, the standard bid/ask order book procedure whereby the 'current price' is set by whatever the 'value' of the most recent trade is just... old fashioned in my opinion, maybe i don't quite understand but i believe it is a system of exchange designed for the inflation based fiat world and its associated financial vehicles in order to artificially lower or control prices, there has to be a better way of setting a mean price in the deflation based crypto world?
For example...
10 friends may value a single bitcoin at $800, however if just 2 of those friends were to 'exchange' a single bitcoin for $200 that would automatically make the other 8 individuals bitcoin worth $200, this to me doesn't seem right when the majority (8 over 2) value a single bitcoin at $800... why should the 'exchange price' drop to $200 because the minority decided so?
I know what the current EXCHANGE prices are however i would like to know what YOUR valuation is, no sitting on the fence please... just a simple figure will be perfect.
This is a little experiment so that i can calculate the mean price from all the answers in 'this discussion' and compare it to the exchange prices to see if its worth exploring further.
What is your honest current valuation of 1 bitcoin, in USD (for convenience)?
Cheers
J
For example...
10 friends may value a single bitcoin at $800, however if just 2 of those friends were to 'exchange' a single bitcoin for $200 that would automatically make the other 8 individuals bitcoin worth $200, this to me doesn't seem right when the majority (8 over 2) value a single bitcoin at $800... why should the 'exchange price' drop to $200 because the minority decided so?
I know what the current EXCHANGE prices are however i would like to know what YOUR valuation is, no sitting on the fence please... just a simple figure will be perfect.
This is a little experiment so that i can calculate the mean price from all the answers in 'this discussion' and compare it to the exchange prices to see if its worth exploring further.
What is your honest current valuation of 1 bitcoin, in USD (for convenience)?
Cheers
J
The current honest valuation of 1 bitcoin is the current price of btc on all exchanges over the world.
I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.
Didn't the distribution changed? I hope more than one whale cashed out during the " falling" ..
I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
The amateurs don't really hold much btc. It's mostly early adopters and rich people. It may be more distributed than a year ago, but the userbase growth for BTC has slowed down.
I buyed @1000+ usd/btc. Now, after a year spent by occ as iona lla looking and taking losses, I buyed one more coin because I think they are cheap.
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
I will never, NEVER, let my coins go for less than the price I payed. I could be not a rational investor, but I think a lot of people in the btc business are thinking like me.
Of couse for a big investor is different, but seems to me there'really lot of amateurs owning btc...
$1999 
I don't particularly like the question because it's sort of irrelevant.
When I say "sort of irrelevant," I don't mean that individual opinion doesn't matter, but this is an auction market in which trading occurs across vastly different mediums. In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing. The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day. There's money up for grabs at half-off and nobody's buying.
I just don't think it's the best interpretation to visualize the market as requiring some Universal price anchor or pricing mechanism, but rather value will be determined by localized factors as it has been. For example, certain factors make valuation on Bitstamp different from BTC-e, and certain factors also affect valuation of BTC traded on the chain vs. off the chain. The price of BTC on BTC-e is always lower because it's simply near impossible to directly fund your account with fiat. The price on Local Bitcoins is simply misleading because the spreads are ridiculous and the depth isn't there. The prices asserted in this thread are, at best, hearsay because nobody is trading at these prices.
When I say "sort of irrelevant," I don't mean that individual opinion doesn't matter, but this is an auction market in which trading occurs across vastly different mediums. In this thread we've already seen personal valuations at ~200% current market rate, but this means nothing. The posters don't even believe in their personal valuations because nobody's partaking in the 50% off sale going on all day every day. There's money up for grabs at half-off and nobody's buying.
I just don't think it's the best interpretation to visualize the market as requiring some Universal price anchor or pricing mechanism, but rather value will be determined by localized factors as it has been. For example, certain factors make valuation on Bitstamp different from BTC-e, and certain factors also affect valuation of BTC traded on the chain vs. off the chain. The price of BTC on BTC-e is always lower because it's simply near impossible to directly fund your account with fiat. The price on Local Bitcoins is simply misleading because the spreads are ridiculous and the depth isn't there. The prices asserted in this thread are, at best, hearsay because nobody is trading at these prices.
I also don't love the question, but for a slightly different reason. Markets are forward-looking, so basing a price on today's value doesn't really tell the story.
My valuation model for BTC involves looking at it as a percentage of M2 money supply. I know what I believe it will be worth in or around 2020 (probably less than many forumites think at around $2300-$2500) and I am buying now because, even at that price, a 6x return in less than 6 years is amazing.
But it's worth noting that, as with stock purchases, future earnings are "baked" into the price quite a bit. I'm not buying now because I believe the intrinsic value (based on M2) is all that high, but rather because I'm buying the equivalent to future earnings. Based on M2 calculations, I'd suspect the snapshot value TODAY using the model is more likely in the range of $20-50.
The other thing to remember is that price and value are different. Over time they converge, but there can be many divergences to the high side and to the low side. It's quite possible that if adoption is strong and use-cases are strong that the value in 2020 will be $2300, but foward-looking markets will set the price much higher. Or lower.
I really like your distinction about factoring future developments into the price. Out of curiosity, could you provide any more explanation as to how you arrived specifically at a $20-50 range?
legendary
Activity: 1302
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Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
And to say it most simply:
Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.
Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.
Agreed, but a lack of transparency makes it unclear whether price manipulation could be (or is) performed by exchange operators.
The more exchanges there are, the more difficult that becomes because of arbitrage. Artificially raise the price and I will sell more to you while buying cheaper elsewhere, and vice versa.
And to say it most simply:
Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.
Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.
Agreed, but a lack of transparency makes it unclear whether price manipulation could be (or is) performed by exchange operators.
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
Mostly this group is long term investors I would assume.
There are many other market participants such as
short term traders, miners, short sellers...not to
mention the fact that 10 people is too small a sample
size to be statistically valid.
Obviously, to both of your points... but the numbers don't lie and its clear 'the street' as one poster said believes bitcoin to be worth more than the exchanges tell us
I wonder what the mean price would look like if their were millions of entries, and if any exchange service could then be built using that price knowing that it had the backing of millions of people
Your thinking doesn't make sense to me, I'm sorry to say.
Let's say millions of people did have the opportunity
to express their opinion about what they think Bitcoin
should be priced at, like you hypothesized.
So then what? Who cares what they think?
They aren't the ones transacting. So they really
have no say.
Price is what buyers and sellers agree on. Period!
To say it another way:
Your argument is like saying "Items at auction
are the wrong price...we should have people
vote on what they think its worth, even if they
aren't the ones bidding or selling."
I assume you believe in free-market dynamics
and letting people decide for themselves
without external authorities, what they are
willing to pay for something.
And to say it most simply:
Exchanges don't actually set the price.
Buyers and sellers do.
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