Topic: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] (Read 2323 times)

It is hard to get that. I think it is impossible and that cant happen. You will always lose more money than you win money.
Or you must be very smart and lucky, but that happens not that often so it will not possible I think.

That would be really nice. But that is very hard to let that happen. Than you must play very safe and that is very important.
If you dont play safe and than you can lose a lot of money and that will be not good, it will be all wasted.

NHL: NJ Devils Backup Keith Kinkaid has allowed 10 goals in his last two starts. In NJ Devils last 5 games they are 1-4, and all 4 losses were by more than two goals. I'm betting against this goalie Kinkaid, betting 0.001 BTC on Sharks -1.5 goals @2.25 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/951a193SEZqMlJyNUVGMmpPaHRQeVRmdVphUT09/r/595422/
http://www.flashscore.com/match/YV1HuEFe/#match-summary

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Sharks already down 0-2. What's happening? For starters the Sharks are not scoring. Sharks-Devils shots (26-15), Faceoffs (22-23), and the Devils scored in the 2nd period with only 3 shots, and the Devils scored in the 3rd period with only 5 shots. They've made 2 goals in 8 shots, pretty efficient. I don't understand how the game is unfolding and I need to look more into NHL stats. What NHL advanced stats are important to understanding games? There is one thing I did just notice:

This year...
Devils win 51% of their games OT included
Devils win 48.5% of their games at home OT included
Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road OT included

Sharks win 60% of their games OT included
Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home OT included
Sharks win 70% of their games on the road OT included

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2015/

Devils win more of their away games than Sharks win home games... Sharks seem to perform worse at home. Why, I have no clue. Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road... Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home. The prematch odds OT Included were Sharks @1.39, Devils @3.26. So according to their season win %s the Devils should have been the play.

I guess the NJ backup goalie Kinkaid is having a good game, and I was mislead by him giving up 10 goals in his last two starts. He's going on a shutout right now. I don't know about his surrounding cast, if they were different for those games. I was wrong about him and the Devils. This is not something that happens often... the announcer just said it's been TWENTY YEARS since the Devils last shut out the Sharks.

I need to make serious adjustments.

profit (-0.0095 BTC)

NHL: Minnesota has won their last two games with Edmonton this year. Edmonton is the bottom team in the Western Conference of the NHL. Minnesota's Kuemper 2.28 GAA at home, Oilers Talbot outstanding 1.19 GAA streak over 5 recent games (with exception of Sharks game), but against Minnesota Talbot is 0-2 and 4.13 GAA. I am betting against Talbot playing in Minnesota, and I figure he will fail to win in Minnesota yet again if not because his performance, because of his team. Betting 0.00155 BTC on the Minnesota Wild @1.561 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8b5c759MDNLOGF2dXJtUlRZQ3c3cGtMTW9Sdz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/jaUDZf6l/#match-summary

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Minnesota lost a close 1-2 game. Allowing only 2 goals is a great job by Kuemper. Minnesota and the Devils had about even shots (30-25), and about even blocked shots (15-18). Minnesota dominated faceoffs (40-15). Minnesota only committed 2 penalties to the Devil's 4, but Minnesota went 0-4 on the power play. The game was tied until about 7 minutes left when the Devils actually won a faceoff which quickly turned into a 2v2 iso into a good shot beating the goalie. Minnesota had a power play directly after but their offense was apparently asleep tonight. Ultimately their offense failed to click against a team that is not very good, if you look at their 5v5 stats the Oilers are 3rd from the bottom: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT

So what other reasons are there for Minnesota losing aside from simply being outscored? I'm not sure. I need to think about what affects the outcome of a hockey game. I don't know the players, so I don't know if the lineups who started are better or worse than any other day. If anyone is unhealthy or injured I just did not know. I know that Minnesota is barely out of a playoff spot, and they do have motivation to win games to get into that spot. I'm having trouble understanding this result still. I guess NHL hockey teams are close to each other in overall skill, and I suppose that any team can beat another on any night. That's almost giving in though and saying oh it's just random results, it's the way the puck bounces, roulette on ice... scratch that jazz.

How often do NHL teams win this year? (Warning, this is painful to read, was just trying to put down my thought process, skip to bold for conclusion.) So far this season home teams win 42% of the time, draws happen 23% of the time, and away teams win 35% of the time. Right now the best record is the Washington Capitals who are 49-18, so they win 73% of the time. The bottom of the standings is the Winnipeg Jets at 27-40, so they win 40% of the time. Tonight's bet Wild-Oilers, what are their records? Wild are 31-37, so they win 48% of the time. Oliers are 27-43, so they win 38.5% of the time... and these stats are including overtime. Let's look at regulation time: Minnesota is 29-27 in regulation--(win 42.6%), and have 12 draws (17% of the time) (lose 40.4%). Oilers are 16-36 in regulation--(win 22%), and have 18 draws (25% of the time) (lose 53%). The prematch odds on the game were Wild @1.92, Draw @3.97, Oilers @3.74. The overround is 2.13% so implied probabilities for regulation time are: Wild (49.49%), Draw (26.03%), Oilers (24.48%). The implied odds are very similar to their season averages. It seems that to take the Draw and Oilers there is a significantly better chance of this happening according to their season averages: as we looked up above, Wild win in regulation 42.6% of the time, so the draw and opposing team win 57.4% of the time. The implied chance of draw and Oilers is 50.11% which is 7.29% less likely than the season average (57.4%). If the current season average is truly an accurate indicator of Minnesota's performance then there's a +7.29% chance of Draw and Oilers occurring that is not accounted for correctly. Draw and Oilers has value as a bet because there's a greater chance of it occurring (according to the season average) than the sportsbook odds suggest... possibly we should have bet that instead!

Nhl wins info from http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/usa/nhl/

profit (-0.0085 BTC)

first I want to say GOOD LUCK!! anything's possible!!
but of course u gotta be lucky though.. skills is a must... but luck is what  need to win.  I won about 0.004 mbtc from 20 freespins at betchain, awhile back... about 3-4 months ago.. with that 0.004, I turned it into 24. btc.  but of course that was from playing slots. so I believe that its possible, when you're feeing lucky..

I don't mind it at all! The whole reason I made a thread instead of just a word document is to hopefully have conversation, and learn about what I'm doing right/wrong and share it.

First off a coin flip is 50/50. A bookmaker would not give you 50/50 odds on the flip. Bookmakers charge you an amount for taking your bet. This commission for running the sportsbook is called the vigorish, vig, or juice. Instead of the coinflip being 2.00/2.00 odds the sportsbook will charge 10% vig and the odds will become 1.9/1.9. We want to bet at sportsbooks with the best odds to get the highest payout possible on our bet. If the same odds are being offered on an event across all sportsbooks (which is not the case usually) then the best odds will be the place with the least vig. Since there is not an even amount of money being bet at all books, and books adjust their lines independently (some being slower or quicker to adjust for changes in odds), there's often a huge difference in the odds between events.

Anyway, considering all this above... if Wick-Hercog was 50-50 the true odds would be 2.00/2.00. If a sportsbook had a 5% vig then it'd be 1.95/1.95. Looking at the available odds prematch for Wick-Hercog:
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/usa/wta-indian-wells/hercog-polona-wickmayer-yanina-trfpSjn3/
At Pinnacle Wick opened around @1.61 and closed @1.55; Hercog opened @2.45 and closed @2.61. If the true odds of either winning was 50/50, then Hercog would be the better play hands down. Bet Hercog every time if this is the case, and in the long run over many games this would be profitable.

The whole damn tricky thing is determining what the true odds of an event occurring are. Wick-Hercog can't be 50/50. Tennis can be a sport where it's one person versus another, so it should be easier to examine than team sports. If two people are equal in every way then they will be 50/50 to win. The problem is that no one's equal, and their abilities change over time, and through different conditions. People have flaws, advantages and disadvantages. I suppose you would have to think about every possible variable in a match, and then test to see if those variables really matter in the outcome.

I know that people create models to predict the outcome of a match, but I don't really know what goes into making one. It would be cool to learn how to make one, and check if it is effective or not. If you made one you would need to feed it data all of the time that you get from somewhere. It would be a huge hassle to manually enter it all so you would need some way of automatically getting it, or hiring someone to get it. At some point the model is going to be like the mouse--if you give a mouse a cookie, it's going to ask for some milk as well. Then he'll ask for a straw. He'll finish and ask for a napkin, then a mirror to check if he has a milk mustache... the last thing you need is a model with a milk mustache. Irregardless of potential challenges it's something that would be awesome to look into.

Tennis: The majority of Yanina Wickmayer's matches are on hard court (174-111 hard only record). Today she's playing vs Polona Hercog who plays the majority of her matches on clay court (200-79 clay only record). Yet when you look at Hercog's hard court history you find she does not win win nearly as many matches--less than 50% (85-92 hc record).

They have never played each other before, but today they are playing in the first round of WTA Indian Wells. I am predicting Wickmayer will win because she has performed well on hard court in the past, while Hercog simply has not. Betting 0.001 BTC on Wickmayer @1.548 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3873b04K2p1R2ZnSEFnWkRaU2MrUG9QVk8wQT09/r/595422/

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415623

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Wickmayer won 2-1. She lost the first set 0-6, then won the next two 6-4, 6-4. I wonder why she lost the first set 0-6? Maybe tennis players can conserve energy by conceding a set when down. Is it worth holding a serve in a losing set? I'm not familiar with the strategy, if it is one, and I wonder what players employ this strategy often?

profit (-0.00695 BTC)

Yes indeed. But you need to have play really safe and that is hard. You will always lose more money than you win money.
So you must be smart to do that. And maybe also be very lucky. I hope that you can make it possible.

0.001 BTC to 1 BTC challenge is extremely difficult. You need to win 10 straight games at 2.00 odds in a row and use all your capital + winning to make it to 1 BTC. If you can win 10 straight games in a row at 2.00 odds consistently, you will become very very rich.

I agree when watching a sport sometimes you can just intuitively see things. Sometimes you can get better odds than you would have had prematch. You can see how the players are actually performing on the day as opposed to guessing. I've not tried live betting much yet. Maybe I will experiment with it more. I see that Nitrogen Sports is great for betting prematch, but has limited live betting options. Other sites like Direct Bet, BetCoin, and CloudBet seem to have more options during play. Anybody: what is the best BTC sportsbook for live betting?

On the flip side one nice thing about betting is you don't have to always watch the game. If you are betting many, many games it might not be possible to watch, or you might not have access to a live stream of the event. It might even be not interesting to watch. You don't like the sport, the game's not competitive, you have more important things to do with your time, but hey it's still possible to take a position on a game where you believe the odds are favorable and get paid if you are correct.

While watching a game I would be concerned about errors in short term decision making, emotions playing a part of that. When you're watching a tennis match and identifying with a player, or a display of skill they just put on, maybe it's possible to be blinded and take an unreasonable position.

Games change so dynamically with seconds being the difference between goal and near miss. If you are caught in heat of the moment, and asking yourself "is this the right time to place my wager?", you really need to know what you are doing, analyze the situation now, analyze if the odds are favorable now, predict what you think is going to happen in the near future with the game situation/odds--all of this almost instantly before the next game changing event affects the odds again.

In other words you have less time to think. Time could be your enemy. Every second the odds are changing as a match progresses. Whether they are changing in your favor or not has to be repeatedly assessed. When should you close out your position/hedge and guarantee a certain loss or profit, and when should you let the bet ride until the conclusion of the event? It just gets so complex as you're working against time... well, I guess it only gets complex if you make it complex.

I follow you.I like this type of challenge from 0.001 btc to 1 btc or other amount.
I think you use easymoney with high oods.

Soccer (Romania, Cupa Ligii): Concordia has only scored one goal in its last 4 games, and are just in terrible form. In addition Dinamo Bucuresti has held a dominant record against Concordia as well (9 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss). Betting 0.001 BTC on Dinamo Bucuresti:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/dad2712cjR4RWZsLzZRbERraVFFV0dHY3NFZz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/SYfojg0j/#match-summary

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Concordia is up 3-0. What happened? Concordia was more efficient, scored 3 goals on only 7 attempts on goal. Concordia/Dinamo had equal possession (51-49), Dinamo slightly more shots on goal attempted (7-12), Dinamo had many more corners (1-9), yet Concordia had 5 saves on goal, and Dinamo had 0 saves.

These stats do not do a good enough job at explaining how Concordia achieved this result. I don't know what happened, and I don't understand how I can gain an understanding of what happened only from the stats on flashscore. There is so much that happens during a game that is not recorded. What is important that isn't being recorded? Then, looking at what is actually recorded, the stats can sometimes show what happened, yet other times they can be downright unimportant or misleading. Even if they are perfectly good, if I don't correctly interpret what the numbers mean then I'm in trouble.

Something is going terribly wrong in how I am analyzing soccer matches. I need to think about what I am doing wrong, and clearly identify it so I can at least begin to change how I am going about things.

profit (-0.0075 BTC)

very reasonable sounded. i am very interested in this match. hope that things will turn out well for u. keep an eye on this. gd luck.

NHL: The LA Kings are the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference, and second lowest scoring team in all the NHL, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per match. The Washington Captials have had their last 5 games in a row go under 5.5 goals.

WSH goalie HOLTBY: 2.28 GAA, and LA goalie QUICK: 2.24 GAA.

I expect there to be few goals in the match, so I am risking 0.001 BTC on under 4.5 goals @2.59 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary

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LA Kings opened the first period quickly scoring three goals. Holtby did not play well. The huge deficit changed the dynamic of the game, and Washington took more risks going forward. Somehow they came back from 0-3 in the third period with three goals of their own taking the game into OT.

Both teams did not perform to their average past performance as they let in more goals. Maybe it is wrong of me to expect a player or team to perform to their average past performance. There has to be more of a range a team/player is expected to play in. I suppose I did not consider the range of possible performance, and the range of probable performance of both teams. What are a team's/player's limits? What are the capable of, what are they not capable of? These are questions I need to consider more.

profit (-0.0065 btc)

odds usually says you which team will win, but if you're sure thatit will be tie, like  in football game, bet on tie not team

and you should choose main games, like basketball and tennis, maybe soccer too, a lot of games each week so you always will have where to bet

I truly believe that it is possible to win from sports betting. If not I would not be running a tipster competition in the forum. We are in the fifth month now, and we keep seeing proof that it is possible to make good profit from it. The only problem I see here is the starting bankroll. Like you said there is no margin for error. I believe in bankroll management is a key aspect to be able to profit, that is one of the reasons why we have a 5% max bet stake size in our competition.

In your case with just 0.001, you can't do that, so it will be hard I think.

If you're looking for high odds give our website a try. Not only odds tend to be higher than anywhere else in some cases but also we grant 10% bonus to your winnings if you decide to share the bet on Facebook.

Tell us what you think if you do bet.

https://www.onehash.com/#

You must be really careful. Losing is much easier than win so that is not good. You must play with small amounts.
That is the only good option. And I hope that more people will also realize that they lose more money than they win money in gambling.

Tennis live bet: Langer is 7-0 H2H against Krawietz, and today prematch Langer ml was ~1.4 odds.
He just lost the first set to Krawietz, but considering he has not lost to Krawietz in 7 matches I like his chances with the odds @2.65.
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415010

Risking 0.0015 BTC on Nils Langer ml @2.65 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/84c7fc9VXpTODlNdTg2VjhlTFpSQ0ZPTjZudz09/r/595422/

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Langer did not care very much in the second set, and didn't appear to give an honest effort. I guess there was somewhere else he wanted to be instead of this small Chinese tournament.

At this rate I will get to 1 negative BTC in no time. Don't go chasing waterfalls...

Profit (-0.0055 BTC)

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After further investigation this was the first match Langer had played in over 21 days. In his last match he retired down 4-2 in the first set. This should have been a gigantic warning sign! He retired in his last match, and couldn't make it out of the first set. There is no explanation of his reason for retiring. Wait, it gets better...

Langer's last match:
13.02.2016, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer- 4-2 first set, retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1407187
After this match he played the challenger match in China (Zhuhai) that I bet on and lost in the first round.

Go back one year:
14.02.2015, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1282831
After this he played two challenger matches in China (Guangzhou, Shenzhen) and lost both in the first round.

Weird how similar the results are, and I'm not entirely sure what they mean. It is super interesting to think about player motivation. Maybe there are times of the year, areas of the world, or certain tournaments where a player is more likely to retire, tank, lose on purpose for various reasons. If a player retired in their last match be wary of betting on them. Are they healthy, are they motivated, how can you even know?

As someone that follows a good bit of basketball, that's a solid bet. GL with that.