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Topic: 0.618 fib retracement @ $48.5K achieved: Is this is the local top? - page 2. (Read 280 times)

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 2177
Crypto Swap Exchange
I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.

I guess this could be the problem; Bitcoin likes to take the path of maximum pain for speculators. In 2023 this was continued upside, as many took profits too early and others got liquidated shorting the price. Now the path of maximum pain would be a return to $30K support imo, or lower, now that many speculators still anticipate higher levels since the ETFs have launched. Personally I'd be happy to see $30K again within the next few months, followed by healthy consolidation around $40K leading into and after the halving. It seems like much of the market was under the impression that Bitocin was in a "never-ending" uptrend, or new bull market, but so far in it's history this has never been a thing prior to halving. Corrections always occur eventually, and when they do and the trend shifts from bullish to bearish, they are usually quite severe.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 443
I was surprised that we haven't had a correction yet, but couldn't the ETF event have made a correction not possible, meaning we could see $42,000 as a minimum, considering that Bitcoin fees in the previous period were preventing a decline, now the increasing demand for Bitcoin due to ETF expectations leads to balancing the price.
legendary
Activity: 2954
Merit: 2145
I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.
donator
Activity: 4718
Merit: 4218
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I think you’re probably right, but is it worth creating a taxable event to make the bet you’ll be able to buy back lower? The risk might not match the reward. Imagine having less after tax money to buy BTC at a higher price if you’re wrong…

If a pullback does happen, I would view it as an opportunity to purchase shares in one of the new ETFs inside a Roth IRA account.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 2177
Crypto Swap Exchange
I've been waiting for price to retrace to it's 0.618 fib retracement level for over a year now, since the $15.5K low, and finally today that target has been reached @ $48.5K as price (as of writing) has reached a peak of $48.9K. Notably in 2019 price went a little higher than it's expected retracement level of $13.3K, instead reached $13.8K, and nearly $14K on some exchanges, so further upside remains more than possible.



I hope I'm wrong, but personally I think this is the local top for now and price will correct 30-50% from here, to $25K to $35K $20K to $30K, which would also be completely normal after a 150% increase in 2023.  Bare in mind in 2019 price increased by 300%+ and corrected 50%+ from $13.8K level to $6.4K within about 5 months (covid crash aside). Ironically today is also the day the ETF launches, which I find far from a coincidence.

I'm not expecting a black swan event here, just the usual retracements / corrections after a parabolic run. In this case, something less severe than 2019 around $30K if I had to guess.
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