Topic: 1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 - page 5. (Read 9336 times)

Even the price of gold has not reached this high. It would take a very long time for bitcoin to even hit $10,000 let alone $1,000,000.

Err... but what about the size of debt of say USA alone, let alone the rest of the world.  Isn't that going to soak up .... what is it currently, $18.4 Trillion or something?  Sometimes I wonder if we actually create anything at all, or whether we're just converting sunlight to food to work to sustain the status quo, with 'wealth creators' gaining an edge on a trend for a few decades/generations before it goes back to the earth.

I find this hard to believe myself, but I just did an extrapolation based on whatever data I could pull together quickly, and it suggests that it should pass the USD$ 1 million/BTC around December 2022.  Just one year prior to that, it would suggest the paltry sum of $102,000.

That's no joke and no typo, but it does make a *lot* of assumptions such as:

*If previous history is any guide to future performance.

*Not discounting any unknowns about future events of cataclysmic scale.

*No game changers, such as what we saw about peak oil, where usage should have run out by now, but new ways of scraping the barrel, increased efficiency, scope for alternative tech to immediately (in the logarithmic sense) make it redundant.  Another one is human population on the planet - if the model worked on that then we'd all have about 1sqm of land each I guess, but nature has ways of culling non viable systems and maintaining requisite variety.

There will of course be peaks and troughs along the way, and I tried to model it ('model it' being a fancy word for 2 mins with a spreadsheet and a couple of data points for a starting point, nothing techie).  I just tried to find a baseline.  For example, if you'd joined us ATH you'd still as at time of writing, be down rather than up.  OTOH, if you got in when it was a couple of cents per coin then you'd see the market distorted in the opposite way before there was any volume to make meaningful measures of the numbers.

If FIAT doesn't collapse before the above date, and no hyperinflation experiences to mark the end of an empire, then that's a freakingly difficult value to conceive of.  If we're buying bread with wheel barrows of $100 notes then I'd suggest we start collecting parts that could be made into wheelbarrows and trade those for bread instead.

It could have a sudden halt, or a bell curve, or any number of other things that this extremely simple "time to double" projection suggests.  

So no, I don't believe the above numbers as I can't conceive of it compared to any real life experience.  Entertaining daydream though.

if this happens we will all be rich

Its not just that, but the other markets like gold and silver has to be over flowing and being unable to cater to peoples needs.

Then people start looking for other options like bitcoin, but if the market cap for gold is close to 5 trillion then bitcoin remains a small billion category.

Yes, all my calculations in that other thread are based on a constant dollar value.

why is it too high to expect such big price in the future? i think it will be really possible pretty soon if the interest in bitcoins will not fade overtime, lets hope it wont happen

one bitcoin will most probably equal to one million dollars in a few decades most probably, when this will happen then bitcoin will be a currency of a lot of countries in my opinion

if we all do support for bitcoin and we all adopt bitcoin for our normal use then bitcoin will get a high value and it will be then a hope that the price will be at that value.

sounds like a quick way to become rich. I am sure, if the price of bitcoin to $ 1000.000 in a short time, perhaps all the current bitcoin users would become suddenly rich. maybe everyone will be shocked by this news, and even a director will focus on seeking bitcoin

Sounds pretty long time frame to me especially considering the fact that the age of btc is already only 7 years - and even that has felt like forever.
However, holding 1-5 btc should not be impossible, and even larger amounts as long as you are having income from other sources and are not forced to sell at current levels.

well simply said if today's price of 1 BTC is 456.46 USD (AVG for past 6 months) and fruit and vegetable index average for same period is at $299.19 => 1.52

With 1 BTC now you can buy on average 1.52 of the fruit and vegetable index, it should at least stay this way in the future...

I did some calculations and I didn't use the general CPI as it's too much affected by technological advance - I used "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Fruits and vegetables" (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF113), as I assume today's vegetable is pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago.

My calculations show that average inflation for past 32 years was about 15 % y/y (quite crazy, isn't it?), so in order to keep up with the inflation you must make 15 % extra y/y or your investment needs to do it. Shadowstats.com say that the inflation is between 6-10 % y/y depending on methods used (http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts).

With above in mind I suppose for average person the y/y inflation I suppose is at least 10 %, obviously if in "your" consumer basket is way more iPhones/cars/other consumer goods per year (you're richer) your personal inflation is lower and vice versa.

Again looking at the "CPI - Fruits and vegetables (USD)" index, basically every 10-20 years you need to at least double your money to keep up with the inflation.
2016-05-01    index: $294.68
2006-05-01    index: $246.80
1996-05-01    index: $182.60
1986-05-01    index: $110.10
1976-05-01    index: $57.50
1966-05-01    index: $33
1956-05-01    index: $26.9

===>>> So if you say that 1 BTC will be 1M USD in 10-20 years you will probably buy about half of what you can buy with same amount today, in other words, 1 million USD today is same as 2 million USD in about 15 years.

These calculations assume that the trend will be about same and nothing VERY bad will happen.

Hi Burt, nice to see your post again.

I've followed your mining power based analysis on the price cap for each halving era. Based on your model, the estimation came up by flipperfish's post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9186092 are all based on today's dollar purchasing power right?

I agree that the price estimation could be a lot more accurate on how much bread/milk we can get per coin, however, I have yet to find anyone come up with a solid formula based on this model.

We know that something like this is just not going to happen with Bitcoin, I think tat we have to stay realistic because speculating about these kind of prizes is going to bring us nowhere. So lets focus on what can really happen with the Bitcoin price in the future.

One million $ is possible, and potentially sooner than you think.  

If the US dollar currency has a collapse, loses reserve currency status and is no longer used as the currency that Middle East oil transactions are carried out in (and the demise of the petrodollar is the principle intention of the BRICs nations), the hyper inflationary event could be breath taking, followed by a panic stampede to a safe place to store wealth.  

If the dollar collapses that $21 trillion economy and store of wealth will have to be carried out in somebody's currency,

or perhaps nobody's,

as in decentralized,

as in bitcoin.

I agree.  It is inevitable that 1 BTC will equal $1,000,000 by design of both systems - assuming both systems last that long.

The real questions are:

1) When will the cross over happen

2) How much will the 1 BTC or the $1,000,000 be able to buy at that point is time?  One average house? One average automobile?  A nice vacation? One bag of groceries?  Or one cup of coffee.

One bitcoin for one million is possible, but it will take lots of time and luck, because everyone should use bitcoins then for this to happen

And i think that closest date that this could happen is not earlier than in 2050 and like i said only if we will be very lukcy

Exactly it is something out of the reach, and we are expecting too high from bitcoin, that value is not realistic one and it would be waste of time for holding coins to sell at that price.

As much as I crave it, I just don't think it will ever happen.