Thanks!
Topic: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 (Read 3029 times)
November 19, 2011, 04:48:54 PM
Received
Thanks!
Thanks!
November 19, 2011, 02:07:45 PM
lol nice. I see the coin in my wallet now.
November 19, 2011, 02:06:51 PM
I don't foresee any problems, I've interacted with ineededausername before
His formula is basically:
(your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2)
He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway.
So yeah, for me that's roughly:
(0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0
His formula is basically:
(your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2)
He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway.
So yeah, for me that's roughly:
(0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0
Funds are on their way (bitcoin transaction: ddf8e17d3f99b15382533b2efbd961e3ce633da0221fa8959937e72f97c2c064)
Here's my chart. No dollar or time values needed. I call it the double fuck.
Funds are on their way (bitcoin transaction: 43634e374ee547e5e273a760c2a67dedd050b7059e17ded966d0658b5c5b6053)
November 19, 2011, 05:53:50 AM
Inau has a history of organizing contests just for fun. I have no doubt that he will pay. He just wasn't around yesterday. I'm not in a hurry.
November 19, 2011, 12:44:29 AM
Meh, he made offer, but didn't say when he will pay. Cut him some slack and give him a couple days.
November 18, 2011, 08:55:04 PM
So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways.
INAU hasn't been around all day. I don't know what's up. Two people agree on who the winner is, and I'll pay the prize. Also, votes on the best chart decides the winner.
November 18, 2011, 08:41:51 PM
So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways.
November 18, 2011, 05:47:45 PM
So INAUN whos the winner?
November 18, 2011, 10:49:20 AM
So that means I won, right? j/k :p
November 18, 2011, 03:01:56 AM
I don't foresee any problems, I've interacted with ineededausername before
His formula is basically:
(your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2)
He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway.
So yeah, for me that's roughly:
(0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0
His formula is basically:
(your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2)
He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway.
So yeah, for me that's roughly:
(0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0
November 18, 2011, 02:56:25 AM
Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
0253 SMF time (GMT) that is.
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.
update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.
update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!
I.. I can't figure out his wacky formula. I'll make sure he pays out in the AM.
-Jonathan
November 18, 2011, 02:41:55 AM
Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
y did no one see this coming...
November 18, 2011, 02:16:01 AM
Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in
As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.
0253 SMF time (GMT) that is.
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.
update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.
update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!
November 18, 2011, 01:49:42 AM
It's not over yet. 10 minutes to go.
Guaranteed win.
* BTCurious moves his bidwalls.
Guaranteed win.
November 18, 2011, 01:45:41 AM
Who's the winner? I'll pay the prize and INAU can get me back. I think he's asleep.
-Jonathan
-Jonathan
November 18, 2011, 01:33:10 AM
Prediction:
2.19100000 - 2.23650000
I think if there are still ties after your mentioned tie-breaker, the prediction submitted earlier should just win.
2.19100000 - 2.23650000
I think if there are still ties after your mentioned tie-breaker, the prediction submitted earlier should just win.
November 18, 2011, 01:21:18 AM
No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.
What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were.
the formula he pulled out of his ass put them at a disadvantage
November 17, 2011, 11:32:48 PM
No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.
What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were.
November 17, 2011, 11:29:37 PM
No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.
November 17, 2011, 11:29:11 PM
What about a cut off time for submitting? Otherwise you get someone submitting at 6:51, which seems a bit unfair to me!
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