Actually, I agree. But for me "longer term" means years. In the meantime, we'll have a downtrend for some time, while the market is trying to balance itself.
Most of the new market participants are unlike the old ones. They are in it for the quick profit, or they've already sold at loss and they're trying to recover their lost money by buying low and selling higher. Many will exit the market when they've managed to turn their losses into acceptable profit.
The only things supporting Bitcoin price at the moment are the remaining dumb money left over from the bubble frenzy and those early adopters who sold at $200 buying back coins with all their newly gained fiat.