I think I can.
The reason $100 is unlikely - only a factor or 2 more likely than $0 (which you might think is likely, but that's another story) - is because when the price was $120, Second Market started taking investments that could not leave the market place for 12 months. Tens of millions have gone into the market that can't come out for a long time. Meanwhile the rally has attracted ten of thousands of investors and traders into the market. Every one of them would have to leave along with $$$ that was there previous to $120.
So unless someone just wants to dump 100k coins on a market order, which would never happen for obvious reasons, $100 is prettu unlikely unless we pass it along the way to $0.
Meanwhile 10k is only about 8.5x the ATH. And BTC went up about 60x in value this year. So its not unheard of.