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Topic: $1000 per Bitcoin - Just a bubble (Read 4601 times)

newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
December 05, 2013, 11:53:19 AM
#79
Also, that chart looks nothing like the tulipomania or the bitcoin chart,
I have to object on that one, except for the burst of the bubble in the end, but ONLY for the tulip, not Bitcoin Cheesy

Well, when dealing with charts, you need to look at the peculiarities, the personality of the data series. The money supply chart has sudden jumps followed by plateaus where the supply levels off. Also, it's nearly monotonous rising.
This indicates a series of consecutive easings.

If it were a price chart, I'd say it was a commodity during a time of slowing production or growing demand. It looks like a very rational chart, very fundamental.

A mania however, tulips or dotcom stocks or bitcoin, look different. They have increasing peaks with valleys ("bear traps") inbetween, and each peak looks like a heavenly spire thrusting toward the sky in comparison with earlier ones. They are jagged, as they aren't ruled by fundamentals or logic, but by emotion - greed and fear.

A valuation chart that exhibits the symptoms of a mania is, on the other hand, an aggregate effect of human psychology (greed) spiraling out of control.

I object on that one too. Maybe $1000/BTC seems high because you don't see any interest in Bitcoin (as you have explained thoroughly, or I didn't get your point maybe). There are serious scenarios to consider that could lead Bitcoin to collapse entirely. But I am pretty convinced that, as much unrelated and incomparable you may say there are, there are also serious scenarios to consider that could lead the global financial system as we know it to collapse, at least to some extent, if not entirely.

I believe the UN currently estimates the online population to be about 2 billion. If only half of them want to have $1000 worth of Bitcoin tomorrow, that would mean a market cap of 1000 billion, i.e. about 83.300 USD / BTC, i.e. almost 100 times the current price. Put on that scale, $1000 / BTC seems more than sustainable in the short term and reasonable at this stage of adoption.

And USD 83.330 USD / BTC would not even be the "end of it", as BTC is deflationary and USD inflationary, it could theoretically rise forever.

I'm not saying there's no bubble, I'm saying the long-term evolution might not be the "final burst" that you obviously expect.

If we assume that bitcoin WILL be widely adopted as a currency...
Actually, we'd have to sum the bitcoin "GDP", that is the size of the bitcoin-based real economy, and compare the money supply to that in order to get a proper valuation.
As the current size of the bitcoin-based real economy is rather small, and is in fact seriously suffering from price volatility (you can no longer determine prices in bitcoins - you need to determine them in USD, and use the hourly exchange rate), those numbers are pure science fiction at this point.

And yes, the USD is being deliberately debased - though, that doesn't quite affect its fitness as a currency. It does affect its fitness as a store of value, but nobody ever thought that the greenback was a store of value (I hope).
Bitcoin on the other hand has no intrinsic value, nor the status of legal tender. It's based solely on trust, much of which currently stems from an oldschool media fad. And fads have a tendency to fade... Wink

I would rather say that you deny intrinsic value to Bitcoin, because you don't believe in Bitcoin. It's totally understandable and there are many reasons to think like you do. On the other hand, many other people, like me, believe in Bitcoin, and therefore see intrinsic value in it.

What I mean is the following: Bitcoin has IMO no more or less intrinsic value than any other "paper" currency, in my understanding of intrinsic (i.e. from the thing itself, be it the bank note, the ones and zeros in computers, etc.). Maybe you are confusing value (short) and intrinsic value?

It's only about the trust you give in the backer, be it the state or the Bitcoin system, or rather what those you will want to deal with will trust ;-)

From Wikipedia: In finance, intrinsic value refers to the actual value of a company or stock determined through fundamental analysis without reference to its market value. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value.

Bitcoin generates no income, and as such, does not have intrinsic value by definition. It has a market value, that is based on people who are willing to accept it in exchange for goods or fiat currency (as of today, more fiat currency than goods).

True, I do not believe in bitcoin. I am not an antagonist however, I see it as a possibility. There are things that seem worrying, especially the current media hype surrounding it, and the apparent connection between price and (social) media attention.

Also, currently it seems to be a fad to glorify deflationary systems. Studying the history of US finance might dispel at least some of the halo from that school of thought. Deflationary systems punish those who borrow and invest in real production capacity (like machinery or farmland), and reward those who hoard money and lend it out. It can be (and has extensively been) argued to be the most antisocial monetary system conceivable.

(Honestly, if Bitcoin mining speed was constant as opposed to decreasing, and the potential money supply over infinite time unlimited, I'd have better hopes for it as a currency. Of course it would be a far inferior get-rich-quick scheme. Cheesy )
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
December 04, 2013, 07:04:08 PM
#78
it's not a bubble.

That is the tl;dr Cheesy

Well not quite
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
December 04, 2013, 07:03:02 PM
#77
Ya Bit and Lite are the Gold and Silver of digital I believe

So do I :-)
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 06:58:37 PM
#76
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 06:57:50 PM
#75
Ya Bit and Lite are the Gold and Silver of digital I believe
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
December 04, 2013, 06:57:07 PM
#74
While I agree this looks like a bubble, I would think that by the time it pops it will have gained enough support to stay over $1k-$5k. Even if not, there's a huge potential for alt-coins now due to the huge media coverage. My bets are on namecoin+devcoin+papercoin getting to be at least 10-100x their current value, or even more. Still, I'm going to be fairly wary of the way higher prices until they settle some more.

Bitcoin and Litecoin are here to stay. And I believe Litecoin value will obviously rise when they get traded on major exchanges, like MtGox already has announced several times.

Namecoin will probably find uses, I don't know about DVC. Time will tell. There is room for more than one, but probably only a few.
newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 06:51:54 PM
#73
While I agree this looks like a bubble, I would think that by the time it pops it will have gained enough support to stay over $1k-$5k. Even if not, there's a huge potential for alt-coins now due to the huge media coverage. My bets are on namecoin+devcoin+papercoin getting to be at least 10-100x their current value, or even more. Still, I'm going to be fairly wary of the way higher prices until they settle some more.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
December 04, 2013, 06:02:25 PM
#72
Well for one, that is not a price chart, it's the money supply. Smiley It's two very different things.

It sure is. That was merely a wink regarding the shape of the graph.

Also, that chart looks nothing like the tulipomania or the bitcoin chart,
I have to object on that one, except for the burst of the bubble in the end, but ONLY for the tulip, not Bitcoin Cheesy

and means something entirely different. It's an indication of deliberate devaluation of the greenback, on mainly political ground. It's something people have engineered and executed according to a plan.

True, but that deliberate plan is still somewhat hazardous IMHO.

A valuation chart that exhibits the symptoms of a mania is, on the other hand, an aggregate effect of human psychology (greed) spiraling out of control.

I object on that one too. Maybe $1000/BTC seems high because you don't see any interest in Bitcoin (as you have explained thoroughly, or I didn't get your point maybe). There are serious scenarios to consider that could lead Bitcoin to collapse entirely. But I am pretty convinced that, as much unrelated and incomparable you may say there are, there are also serious scenarios to consider that could lead the global financial system as we know it to collapse, at least to some extent, if not entirely.

I believe the UN currently estimates the online population to be about 2 billion. If only half of them want to have $1000 worth of Bitcoin tomorrow, that would mean a market cap of 1000 billion, i.e. about 83.300 USD / BTC, i.e. almost 100 times the current price. Put on that scale, $1000 / BTC seems more than sustainable in the short term and reasonable at this stage of adoption.

And USD 83.330 USD / BTC would not even be the "end of it", as BTC is deflationary and USD inflationary, it could theoretically rise forever.

I'm not saying there's no bubble, I'm saying the long-term evolution might not be the "final burst" that you obviously expect.

And yes, the USD is being deliberately debased - though, that doesn't quite affect its fitness as a currency. It does affect its fitness as a store of value, but nobody ever thought that the greenback was a store of value (I hope).
Bitcoin on the other hand has no intrinsic value, nor the status of legal tender. It's based solely on trust, much of which currently stems from an oldschool media fad. And fads have a tendency to fade... Wink

I would rather say that you deny intrinsic value to Bitcoin, because you don't believe in Bitcoin. It's totally understandable and there are many reasons to think like you do. On the other hand, many other people, like me, believe in Bitcoin, and therefore see intrinsic value in it.

What I mean is the following: Bitcoin has IMO no more or less intrinsic value than any other "paper" currency, in my understanding of intrinsic (i.e. from the thing itself, be it the bank note, the ones and zeros in computers, etc.). Maybe you are confusing value (short) and intrinsic value?

It's only about the trust you give in the backer, be it the state or the Bitcoin system, or rather what those you will want to deal with will trust ;-)

Only time will tell :-)

Cheers
newbie
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 04:51:16 PM
#71
Next stop 10k!
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
December 04, 2013, 03:55:57 PM
#70
Of course it's a bubble currently, however the market pressure can push past it where the trend will just be advanced quickly. Also, your main point of security is someone getting hacked for 500k, when people don't secure large value items, they are often stolen. Doesn't have to be a hacker, it could be a piece of jewelry or artwork stolen by a burglar. Secure your large value investments properly. If people start using bitcoin as a common payment method, the banking software involved will be much more secure.
newbie
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 03:38:16 PM
#69
we'll see 10,000.00 usd in a year
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 03:21:58 PM
#68
What about this one? Is the US Dollar a bubble too? Grin

https://i.imgur.com/LPUYXdH.png

No, and (kind of) yes. Smiley

Well for one, that is not a price chart, it's the money supply. Smiley It's two very different things.

Also, that chart looks nothing like the tulipomania or the bitcoin chart, and means something entirely different. It's an indication of deliberate devaluation of the greenback, on mainly political ground. It's something people have engineered and executed according to a plan.

A valuation chart that exhibits the symptoms of a mania is, on the other hand, an aggregate effect of human psychology (greed) spiraling out of control.

And yes, the USD is being deliberately debased - though, that doesn't quite affect its fitness as a currency. It does affect its fitness as a store of value, but nobody ever thought that the greenback was a store of value (I hope).
Bitcoin on the other hand has no intrinsic value, nor the status of legal tender. It's based solely on trust, much of which currently stems from an oldschool media fad. And fads have a tendency to fade... Wink
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 02:50:13 PM
#67
??
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
December 04, 2013, 02:42:09 PM
#66
If the infrastructure, the algorithm, or the economic trust suffers a serious enough blow, bitcoin will just evaporate.

Of course if for example the encyption algorithm used by bitcoin prove unsafe then the blow will be huge. Single digits blow probably. However that has nothing to do in the context of bitcoin being a bubble or not.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1035
December 04, 2013, 02:19:31 PM
#65
The chart looks like a bubble. All charts that looked like this in the past have ended up looking like this one:


What about this one? Is the US Dollar a bubble too? Grin

bcd
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
December 04, 2013, 01:42:50 PM
#64
I thought it was a bubble at $300 and sold 13 BTC. Never mind, I was happy at that moment, and would be more bothered if the price had fallen and I hadn't sold, than the fact it's risen since.

But what I've mined since I'm holding on to for now  Roll Eyes

I bought few BTCs @ ~$170 during Oct and sold it in next week fearing bubble. Now I have bought again.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
December 04, 2013, 01:34:20 PM
#63
A lot of the things you said were true. Bitcoin is currently seeing a bubble in its pricing.

However, only part of the price increase is a bubble. A lot of it is actual infrastructure being developed and installed. The volatility of the price will eventually decrease when more companies start having a relatively larger share of input power within the network. Before, anytime Mt.Gox got hit, Bitcoin got hit. Now it's not the case so much, because companies like Coinbase have captured a bit more market share.

The more time that goes into Bitcoin, the more real outputs will come out of it.

It isn't all a bubble.

I agree Bitcoin infrastructure needs to be developed, and the current price is just anticipation for where Bitcoin will be in near future (not years)
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 01:30:11 PM
#62
Why are so many people staring at a boiling pot and saying "look a bubble!! and there another one, surely this will be the final one!"

There were, are, and will be bubbles. This is not a stock that bubbles once and pops for good.

You're right, it's not a stock. It's a lot worse than a stock.
A stock means you own part of a company. Some market share, some production capacity in terms of employees, machinery, some cash reserve and assets.
With Bitcoin, you don't own anything except a cryptographically verifiable token. All its value stems from other people willing to accept it for money or goods.

If the infrastructure, the algorithm, or the economic trust suffers a serious enough blow, bitcoin will just evaporate.

I'm not saying it will necessarily happen, but it's a very real possibility.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
December 04, 2013, 01:02:13 PM
#61
A lot of the things you said were true. Bitcoin is currently seeing a bubble in its pricing.

However, only part of the price increase is a bubble. A lot of it is actual infrastructure being developed and installed. The volatility of the price will eventually decrease when more companies start having a relatively larger share of input power within the network. Before, anytime Mt.Gox got hit, Bitcoin got hit. Now it's not the case so much, because companies like Coinbase have captured a bit more market share.

The more time that goes into Bitcoin, the more real outputs will come out of it.

It isn't all a bubble.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
December 04, 2013, 12:46:20 PM
#60
There are a couple of reasons why the bubble is sure to burst. The first is just that it’s a bubble, and any chart which looks like the one at the top of this post is bound to end in tears at some point.

And here is when i stopped reading your lovely wall of text.
I mean saying "bitcoin is a bubble because it's a bubble" doesn't sound promising for the rest of your text...

If it looks like a duck, smells like a duck, sounds like a duck, acts like a duck, then we can assume, that by all means, it is a duck.

The reason the current prices in bitcoin can be called a bubble is due to the following facts:

The chart looks like a bubble. All charts that looked like this in the past have ended up looking like this one:

For you to realize how ridiculous you sound take a look of the price chart between 19/3/2013 and 10/4/2013.
Then look again at the all time price chart of bitcoin.
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