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I, forum member dust, am betting 100BTC at even odds against forum member RoloTonyBrownTown that pirate will fail to pay back his lenders in full.
The outcome of Matthew N. Wright's bet thread,
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/im-giving-100-roi-away-to-anyone-who-thinks-pirate-is-a-fraud-101751, will decide the winner.
In the event that Matthew N. Wright fails to conclusively decide a winner, nanotube's ruling on Vandroiy's bet against Pirateat40 will decide the winner.
In the case that nanotube's ruling is used, a failure to pay bitlane will not be considered a default.
Theymos will hold both bettors coins until the outcome is decided.
Each bettor has paid theymos a 1 BTC fee for acting as escrow.
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Aug. 27 2012 edit: Matthew's precise date and terms for his bet
The original OP states that the bet ends 3 weeks after August 19, 2012, 04:49:20 PM, so that means it ends on September 9th, 2012, 04:49:20 PM KST (Korean Standard Time, local to me). I think I had mentioned a slightly longer deadline elsewhere on IRC out of confusion (September 12th perhaps?), but this is incorrect as you can clearly see. The bet will also end if Pirate has provided proof of paying back all (not 99.9%) of his obligated debts and interests per agreements, whichever comes first.