Topic: 10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days! - page 2. (Read 6439 times)

SSS + buyback on dips. Doesn't matter what the price does, I benefit one way or another . In fact, the more volatile the better in the long run.

Yes indeed agree with this entirely. Complexity will drive out the naive traders, eating away at their profits or making them exit completely, all of which acheives wall st. goal of acquiring coins. It doesn't need huge swings (in fact those were easier to trade allegedly) it needs unpredictability. Just like real markets. I've tried trading in real markets and it burnssss ussss precious

That's why, as I do with equities, I buy good companies at fair value (I'm mostly in AAPL and BRK) and hold them forever. Bitcoin is a great company at (imho) at an unbelievable price. From a buy and hold perspective its a great investment.

From a trading point of view, I think it is soon to become one of the crowd. Good luck traders!

Damnit Oda... this is exactly what i was planning on doing .. this time.
I just held onto everything last time. And just when i think I've learned 'how it works' you guys come along and tell me it's going to be different this time.

Boo Hoo..

I agree with that.

There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time.

(where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones)

Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom.

Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction.

Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low.  Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago.


What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore.

Agreed. With larger fiat input sum the volatility should decrease over time

I think even with Wall Str moving in volatility will go down on average because the market is getting bigger and moving out of penny stock territory. Holding after 32 was by far the hardest one for people who bought during that bubble, great respect for those who have managed to pull through that one. I'm a 266 bubble veteran, which was also a pretty tough one but nothing compared to the 32 bubble. The 1163 bubble was the easiest to hold through I think, so the current trend is that bubbles are getting relatively smaller and the subsequent shakeouts less harsh. I don't think that trend is going to reverse.

From your previous posts regarding your Bitstamp balances you now have IMHO a not-so-bad chance of becoming a millionaire in fiat terms... provided you bury the keys to your wallet in concrete and then go on that overseas trip you were talking about a while ago. 

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

my advice is don't plan on a correction never happening. i'm watching the 590 level closely (.382), also 560 (.500). if those levels fail, could be that the rally is failing.

I think it will go down to $580. But I amn't counting on it so went long term long at $660.

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

Longs rose from a bit over 20 million to over 22 million USD since that test of 615 level. So much leverage. If we bubble up, it's all good. If bulls keep getting rejected.....long squeeze.

And where does one acquire information on the level of BFX longs?

There has already been a lot of profit taking on Bitfinex. Both the $680-$620 crashes were Bitfinex inspired with each of the red 4hr candles over the price slide being 15K BTC strong.

Their equivalents on Bitstamp were 11K, and then 9K, but then much of this volume could also include Bitfinex volume.

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

Kinda hoping for a SR type crash. I sold some in the 650s, 680s. Haven't bought back because I want to either see a higher low first before another push upwards, or a nice selloff.

Exactly. The price and news are neither wholly causal nor wholly dependent - but most often co-creative. 

But is there a deeper attractor field pattern? That's what we all really want to know...

Why not?

May I present to you: the Oct 2 crash.



1w MACD just turned green? check.

Last gasp before a huge uptrend? check.

Flash crash that broke 23% fib level from ATH to bottom anyway? check as well.


I know... Silk Road crash. Can't possibly happen again. Once in a lifetime...

Bullshit. News matter, but price has a way to create its own news that matter.


Like I said, I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked either if it happens.

Good move Mat! Just in time for favorable comments by eBay CEO -- very bullish from a fundamentals analysis perspective!

Often times the bears and the cautious bulls get really bullish at the very top. Just sayin'. It's bitcoin and will probably rocket to the moon. But just because it will hurt so many, that retrace might happen.

This is awesome... ya buying tomorrow.